Bitcoin Forum
July 28, 2017, 03:15:20 PM *
News: BIP91 seems stable: there's probably only slightly increased risk of confirmations disappearing. You should still prepare for Aug 1.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

Pages: « 1 ... 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 [681] 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 ... 1558 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1940994 times)
Peter R
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1036



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 12:24:35 AM
 #13601

My quick and dirty valuation of BTC in 2020 is also based on M2.  Not completely incomprehensible that BTC could be 5% of M2 by 2020, or $2300 or so per BTC.

This would imply that you're also predicting a significant change in bitcoin's historical growth rate starting now.  What would make you believe that growth would be vastly slower moving forward?



Peter, (correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that dot at about $4000 not $2300) that aside when I say the graph it looked a lot like the Bitcoin inflation curve, giving this meager projection more validity.

It got me thinking that the growth in network value and demand with a fixed supply (diminishing inflation) that the relationship would decouple over time as the price would rise as supply shrinks, and that wasn't evident in your model.

I guess that is what Marcus was thinking here by using the market cap which accommodates inflation.


Total BTC value (CAP) and number BTC TXS squared excluding popular addresses (with a simple exponential fit line). Data from Blockchain.info.

On current trend of ~4years, CAP ~$100 billion Aug. 2015, $1 Trillion Aug. 2016 (after next halving) ... unless TXS hit some limit.



Adrian, the Metcalfe value charts I plot always use market cap, including this one.  I just annotated it with the $2300/BTC prediction made earlier in the thread to visually show the sharp decline in the growth rate that such a prediction implied.  

Here's the math to explain why the point is at ~$4 x 10^10:
In 2020, there should be approximately 18 million or so coins: (18x10^6 BTC) x ($2300/BTC) ~ $42 billion ~ $4x10^10, as indicated.  So, yes, the chart is correct.  

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
1501254920
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1501254920

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1501254920
Reply with quote  #2

1501254920
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1501254920
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1501254920

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1501254920
Reply with quote  #2

1501254920
Report to moderator
1501254920
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1501254920

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1501254920
Reply with quote  #2

1501254920
Report to moderator
1501254920
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1501254920

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1501254920
Reply with quote  #2

1501254920
Report to moderator
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 12:50:27 AM
 #13602

all the different Bitcoin buckets continue to fill up with raining fiat except for the price bucket:

http://www.coindesk.com/state-of-bitcoin-q3-2014-report-maturing-ecosystem-price-pressure/
blaaaaacksuit
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 280

Who cares?


View Profile
October 09, 2014, 12:52:37 AM
 #13603

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis

Yea I was listening to that during bearwhales final hour,  I felt really bad for that guy, twitter was just laughing in his face. 
Adrian-x
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1358



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 01:30:44 AM
 #13604

Just wow, I thought this went very well.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Adrian-x
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1358



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 01:46:34 AM
 #13605



Adrian, the Metcalfe value charts I plot always use market cap, including this one.  I just annotated it with the $2300/BTC prediction made earlier in the thread to visually show the sharp decline in the growth rate that such a prediction implied.  

Here's the math to explain why the point is at ~$4 x 10^10:
In 2020, there should be approximately 18 million or so coins: (18x10^6 BTC) x ($2300/BTC) ~ $42 billion ~ $4x10^10, as indicated.  So, yes, the chart is correct.  

Thanks I've got it.
On that point do you see the model scaling while Bitcoins become more scarce? I guess it will as any huge deviation would encourage either spending or saving.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 02:22:10 AM
 #13606


why can't i open the *.wmv file?
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 02:55:21 AM
 #13607

sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1526


View Profile
October 09, 2014, 02:56:57 AM
 #13608


Yea he nailed it

★☆★Syscoin - Decentralized Marketplace and Multisig Platform
Pay with Bitcoin, ZCash and many more
For more visit Syscoin.org  ★☆★
vuduchyld
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364


View Profile
October 09, 2014, 02:57:20 AM
 #13609

That's great info, cypherdoc!
tabnloz
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 961


View Profile
October 09, 2014, 03:01:04 AM
 #13610


The youtube link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mM
bitrider
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 233


View Profile
October 09, 2014, 03:13:54 AM
 #13611


Yes, an amazing performance. He rocked it! Very bull.  Grin
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 03:23:15 AM
 #13612


thx, converting to mp3 to listen on my way to Hasher's United.
NewLiberty
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162


Gresham's Lawyer


View Profile WWW
October 09, 2014, 04:19:34 AM
 #13613


I'd have guessed he's Exante, Pantera is late to the party.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
Bagatell
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 721



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 07:06:26 AM
 #13614

No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times. Cheesy


that's a funny accusation coming from you, the original 2011 conspiracy nut.  a time when i was denouncing it:

The Manipulator

Tinfoil - the new gold!  Grin
ErisDiscordia
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 979


Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos


View Profile
October 09, 2014, 07:44:32 AM
 #13615

Further anecdotal evidence providing support for cypherdocs theory:


this is Bitstamp cold storage address, which now reveal something interesting, these last transactions were made to refill the hot wallet so people who bought that 30K wall can withdraw their coins, but this is not the interesting thing, however there were only 148KBTC in that wallet a couple of weeks back, so this means the owner of the wall already had his coins at stamp all the time and he didn't send them there like some guys suggested here.

what is interesting, or rather annoying is that even after Gox people still leave their coins at exchanges...

I like a good (conspiracy) theory and this one makes a lot of sense!

It's all bullshit. But bullshit makes the flowers grow and that's beautiful.
shields
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 164


View Profile
October 09, 2014, 08:30:46 AM
 #13616

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis

WTF, this guy's been on TV doing interviews about Bitcoin in the past, and now he thinks it's finished because of a moderate (in the grand scheme of things) short-term drop in price.

If you liked this post -> 1KRYhandiYsjecZw7mtdLnoeuKUYoGRkH4
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 08:37:12 AM
 #13617

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis

WTF, this guy's been on TV doing interviews about Bitcoin in the past, and now he thinks it's finished because of a moderate (in the grand scheme of things) short-term drop in price.

Yup. Bitcoin up 21% since he recorded that aka capitulated.

 Most ppl investing in cryptocurrencies are going to lose money-cypherdoc

David is no exception.
shields
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 164


View Profile
October 09, 2014, 08:43:43 AM
 #13618

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis

WTF, this guy's been on TV doing interviews about Bitcoin in the past, and now he thinks it's finished because of a moderate (in the grand scheme of things) short-term drop in price.

Yup. Bitcoin up 21% since he recorded that aka capitulated.

 Most ppl investing in cryptocurrencies are going to lose money-cypherdoc

David is no exception.

He needs a friend to take him to a dive bar and get drunk with him, David can tell him how he thought BTC was the one and now he'll never love again. At the end of the night he'll whip out his phone and buy some slutty alt-coin as a rebound trade. He'll have a hell of hangover, but he'll wake up feeling better, check the price, see it's not the end of the world and be eventually be ready to start a new relationship with crypto.

If you liked this post -> 1KRYhandiYsjecZw7mtdLnoeuKUYoGRkH4
chriswilmer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1008


View Profile WWW
October 09, 2014, 08:55:47 AM
 #13619

Can someone help me understand at what point we should expect to see a cascading short squeeze? It hasn't happened yet right? Most of the short positions on BFX are still open right?
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
October 09, 2014, 08:57:18 AM
 #13620

I told you, no mo selling pressure.

Pantera Capital is out.
Pages: « 1 ... 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 [681] 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 ... 1558 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!