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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804663 times)
cypherdoc
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October 08, 2014, 09:20:01 PM
 #13601

this is just great; your Fed is worried you will have too much purchasing power.  and they wonder why ppl are pissed:

Gold Turns Higher After Fed Frets Over Strong Dollar

http://online.wsj.com/articles/gold-prices-extend-gains-for-third-straight-day-on-global-growth-concerns-1412778274
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October 08, 2014, 09:21:51 PM
 #13602

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure. Cheesy

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?

Nope. If he had the cash there,  he likely would have eaten the whole wall in  a couple bites. As it was it took 6 or so hours, and he got less than half of it. 
Money talks. He got somebody out of bed, or flew in with a suitcase full of cash, who knows, he didn't share details - but he has in the past.
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October 08, 2014, 09:24:36 PM
 #13603

I don't really dismiss conspired multi-month massive manipulation per se, I just think that a) it's unlikely and b) even if it were true, it just means that the conditions of Bitcoin allowed it to be manipulated. Study the conditions, describe degree of susceptibility to manipulation.

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure. Cheesy

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?
What do you mean, "way more than what he said"? I just meant to say that his post isn't proof that whoever is behind his account initiated the buy because it happened after the buy was made. It could be indicative though, given he showed activity 2-3 minutes post buy; we already know he has access to 40k coins and I'm certain he did buy at various points in the past bubble when he said he did. BTW, the buy was actually only a fifth of the original 30k wall (about 6k), and this along with the fact that it took until Monday morning does seem to indicate that it was actually fresh funds, therefore Loaded fits the narrative.

I don't know if he knew, I doubt he did. I'd assume it was a routine transfer and thus a lucky coincidence.

Anyway, this is all fruitless discussion I normally don't participate in, but it can be fun to do so. It just probably won't deliver any insight that'll make us more money. Cheesy

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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October 08, 2014, 09:29:26 PM
 #13604

I don't really dismiss conspired multi-month massive manipulation per se, I just think that a) it's unlikely and b) even if it were true, it just means that the conditions of Bitcoin allowed it to be manipulated. Study the conditions, describe degree of susceptibility to manipulation.

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure. Cheesy

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?
What do you mean, "way more than what he said"? I just meant to say that his post isn't proof that whoever is behind his account initiated the buy because it happened after the buy was made. It could be indicative though, given he showed activity 2-3 minutes post buy; we already know he has access to 40k coins and I'm certain he did buy at various points in the past bubble when he said he did. BTW, the buy was actually only a fifth of the original 30k wall (about 6k), and this along with the fact that it took until Monday morning does seem to indicate that it was actually fresh funds, therefore Loaded fits the narrative.

I don't know if he knew, I doubt he did. I'd assume it was a routine transfer and thus a lucky coincidence.

Anyway, this is all fruitless discussion I normally don't participate in, but it can be fun to do so. It just probably won't deliver any insight that'll make us more money. Cheesy

It's all there in the wall observer thread. A lot to go through,  I know.  I just happened to watch it all live.
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October 08, 2014, 09:36:21 PM
 #13605

Nope. If he had the cash there,  he likely would have eaten the whole wall in  a couple bites. As it was it took 6 or so hours, and he got less than half of it.  
Money talks. He got somebody out of bed, or flew in with a suitcase full of cash, who knows, he didn't share details - but he has in the past.

you seriously believe that?  flew the cash in?  got someone out of bed and got all that cash there in <6h?  to Slovenia?  and how well do you know this guy?  there are a lot of big talkers on the interwebz.

all he said is this: "Fiat arrives (finally.)"  did he actually say he bought the wall?

no, no.  it's WAY more likely Pantera Capital, being an equity owner and close associate of the founders, would be the ones there waiting with the required large amount of fiat to take down the wall.
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October 08, 2014, 09:37:06 PM
 #13606

Andreas talking to a committee of Canadian senators: http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E#
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October 08, 2014, 09:44:08 PM
 #13607

This is the most plausible theory I've heard to date, Cypher.

But let me get this straight: you're suggesting that the 30k wall belonged to a panicking early adopter and was in fact the "desert" that Pantera was after the entire time.  Correct?

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time Smiley )

correct.  given that you believe there has been a manipulator taking down prices since June. 

Blitz, you know me better than that.  back in 2011, i was the one arguing against any manipulation back then and ever since.  this is the only event in which i've invoked a manipulator mechanism.

and if there has been a manipulator, Pantera is the logical entity with the strategic positioning in place to pull it off.  leave tons of BTC and fiat on the exchange in preparation and simply sell down the market until the market capitulates, then buy back.  rather simple, really, which is also why i like it.

It could be even simpler, for example if an even larger OTC deal were being made, and that was based on the exchange price.

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October 08, 2014, 09:44:08 PM
 #13608

Nope. If he had the cash there,  he likely would have eaten the whole wall in  a couple bites. As it was it took 6 or so hours, and he got less than half of it.  
Money talks. He got somebody out of bed, or flew in with a suitcase full of cash, who knows, he didn't share details - but he has in the past.

you seriously believe that?  flew the cash in?  got someone out of bed and got all that cash there in <6h?  to Slovenia?  and how well do you know this guy?  there are a lot of big talkers on the interwebz.

all he said is this: "Fiat arrives (finally.)"  did he actually say he bought the wall?

no, no.  it's WAY more likely Pantera Capital, being an equity owner and close associate of the owners, would be the ones there waiting with large amounts of fiat.

I don't know him at all. But I do know that he has control of a substantial stash (fact)  and claims to handle substantially MORE for clients, and claims to do the fly - in when required.  I have no way to prove nor disprove the claims, and no reason to disbelieve them.
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October 08, 2014, 09:49:34 PM
 #13609

This is the most plausible theory I've heard to date, Cypher.

But let me get this straight: you're suggesting that the 30k wall belonged to a panicking early adopter and was in fact the "desert" that Pantera was after the entire time.  Correct?

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time Smiley )

correct.  given that you believe there has been a manipulator taking down prices since June. 

Blitz, you know me better than that.  back in 2011, i was the one arguing against any manipulation back then and ever since.  this is the only event in which i've invoked a manipulator mechanism.

and if there has been a manipulator, Pantera is the logical entity with the strategic positioning in place to pull it off.  leave tons of BTC and fiat on the exchange in preparation and simply sell down the market until the market capitulates, then buy back.  rather simple, really, which is also why i like it.

It could be even simpler, for example if an even larger OTC deal were being made, and that was based on the exchange price.

i addressed this earlier.  it's unlikely b/c of the time involved in setting up and negotiating OTC orders.  it doesn't happen in <6h especially for amounts of $9-10M.  wiring and banking info needs to be setup and coordinated with the BTC send.  doesn't happen on Sunday nights w/o the assistance of financial personnel.  also OTC participants are sophisticated buyers and are likely to be aware of exchange arbitrage.  there was in fact about an $11-14 discrepancy with BFX at the time, or 4-4.5% difference.  not a trivial amount that OTC traders just give up. 
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October 08, 2014, 09:51:57 PM
 #13610

Nope. If he had the cash there,  he likely would have eaten the whole wall in  a couple bites. As it was it took 6 or so hours, and he got less than half of it.  
Money talks. He got somebody out of bed, or flew in with a suitcase full of cash, who knows, he didn't share details - but he has in the past.

you seriously believe that?  flew the cash in?  got someone out of bed and got all that cash there in <6h?  to Slovenia?  and how well do you know this guy?  there are a lot of big talkers on the interwebz.

all he said is this: "Fiat arrives (finally.)"  did he actually say he bought the wall?

no, no.  it's WAY more likely Pantera Capital, being an equity owner and close associate of the owners, would be the ones there waiting with large amounts of fiat.

I don't know him at all. But I do know that he has control of a substantial stash (fact)  and claims to handle substantially MORE for clients, and claims to do the fly - in when required.  I have no way to prove nor disprove the claims, and no reason to disbelieve them.

i won't argue with you anymore.  this is all just conjecture, i'm the first to admit.  and mostly for fun.

i'd just ask you to weigh the likelihood of the different scenarios we've proposed.  i still think the Pantera Capital buy is more "likely".  even if you do disbelieve the manipulation part from June to Oct 5. Cheesy
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October 08, 2014, 10:48:57 PM
 #13611

Loaded == Pantera guy

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October 08, 2014, 11:20:36 PM
 #13612

Nope. If he had the cash there,  he likely would have eaten the whole wall in  a couple bites. As it was it took 6 or so hours, and he got less than half of it.  
Money talks. He got somebody out of bed, or flew in with a suitcase full of cash, who knows, he didn't share details - but he has in the past.

you seriously believe that?  flew the cash in?  got someone out of bed and got all that cash there in <6h?  to Slovenia?  and how well do you know this guy?  there are a lot of big talkers on the interwebz.

all he said is this: "Fiat arrives (finally.)"  did he actually say he bought the wall?

no, no.  it's WAY more likely Pantera Capital, being an equity owner and close associate of the owners, would be the ones there waiting with large amounts of fiat.

I don't know him at all. But I do know that he has control of a substantial stash (fact)  and claims to handle substantially MORE for clients, and claims to do the fly - in when required.  I have no way to prove nor disprove the claims, and no reason to disbelieve them.

i won't argue with you anymore.  this is all just conjecture, i'm the first to admit.  and mostly for fun.

i'd just ask you to weigh the likelihood of the different scenarios we've proposed.  i still think the Pantera Capital buy is more "likely".  even if you do disbelieve the manipulation part from June to Oct 5. Cheesy
I can certainly entertain the manipulation idea.  And the 35k dump/wall on a Sunday was odd in the extreme.  I do not think that it was eaten by its owner, is all, for the reasons I have stated.  Thanks for this  great thread, btw.   Not sure how it got this big before I noticed it Cheesy  

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October 08, 2014, 11:22:12 PM
 #13613

Loaded == Pantera guy
Hadn't considered that possibility...  As good as any other theory Grin
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October 08, 2014, 11:24:17 PM
 #13614

Loaded == Pantera guy

 Grin
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October 08, 2014, 11:26:07 PM
 #13615

"I can certainly entertain the manipulation idea.  And the 35k dump/wall on a Sunday was odd in the extreme.  I do not think that it was eaten by its owner, is all, for the reasons I have stated.  Thanks for this  great thread, btw.   Not sure how it got this big before I noticed it"

This type of discussion/conjecture is damn' useful for recognizing the symptoms the next time it happens.  
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October 08, 2014, 11:33:24 PM
 #13616

"I can certainly entertain the manipulation idea.  And the 35k dump/wall on a Sunday was odd in the extreme.  I do not think that it was eaten by its owner, is all, for the reasons I have stated.  Thanks for this  great thread, btw.   Not sure how it got this big before I noticed it"

This type of discussion/conjecture is damn' useful for recognizing the symptoms the next time it happens.  
Not to mention entertaining.  Since we all want to know, and none of us are likely to ever know, we might as well knock around whatever ideas occur.
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October 08, 2014, 11:49:26 PM
 #13617

No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times. Cheesy


that's a funny accusation coming from you, the original 2011 conspiracy nut.  a time when i was denouncing it:

The Manipulator
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October 09, 2014, 12:13:00 AM
 #13618

no reaction yet. not that i'm expecting anything:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/519908666670329857

no mo selling pressure:

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October 09, 2014, 12:16:02 AM
 #13619

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis
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October 09, 2014, 12:24:35 AM
 #13620

My quick and dirty valuation of BTC in 2020 is also based on M2.  Not completely incomprehensible that BTC could be 5% of M2 by 2020, or $2300 or so per BTC.

This would imply that you're also predicting a significant change in bitcoin's historical growth rate starting now.  What would make you believe that growth would be vastly slower moving forward?



Peter, (correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that dot at about $4000 not $2300) that aside when I say the graph it looked a lot like the Bitcoin inflation curve, giving this meager projection more validity.

It got me thinking that the growth in network value and demand with a fixed supply (diminishing inflation) that the relationship would decouple over time as the price would rise as supply shrinks, and that wasn't evident in your model.

I guess that is what Marcus was thinking here by using the market cap which accommodates inflation.


Total BTC value (CAP) and number BTC TXS squared excluding popular addresses (with a simple exponential fit line). Data from Blockchain.info.

On current trend of ~4years, CAP ~$100 billion Aug. 2015, $1 Trillion Aug. 2016 (after next halving) ... unless TXS hit some limit.



Adrian, the Metcalfe value charts I plot always use market cap, including this one.  I just annotated it with the $2300/BTC prediction made earlier in the thread to visually show the sharp decline in the growth rate that such a prediction implied.  

Here's the math to explain why the point is at ~$4 x 10^10:
In 2020, there should be approximately 18 million or so coins: (18x10^6 BTC) x ($2300/BTC) ~ $42 billion ~ $4x10^10, as indicated.  So, yes, the chart is correct.  

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