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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1934686 times)
smooth
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October 01, 2014, 09:25:54 PM
 #13121

there's no way any of the ETF's will allow settlement for retail investors with the underlying, be it gold or BTC.
This is why any retails who buy a Bitcoin ETF are fools.

All they'll accomplish is give Wall Street their money so somebody else can have bitcoins.

Not necessarily fools, it just depends what they are trying to accomplish. If they are trying to track the price of Bitcoin, the speculative asset, with a convenient mechanism for liquidity, custody, accounting, tax reporting, etc. then the ETF may work quite well, and someone buying it for that purpose is not a fool. If they are trying to insulate themselves from severe financial crises, it likely doesn't, and someone buying it for that purpose is a fool.
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marcus_of_augustus
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October 01, 2014, 09:31:20 PM
 #13122

All of financial history is littered with powerful demonstrations of how capital seeks the best form of money necessary to route around friction, capital controls, bad laws, regulatory overreach and capture. The crescendo of complexity of all these friction-inducing factors building in the current financial system makes Bitcoin inevitable. In fact, the harder they try to stop it the more desirable it will become to the market.

In the same way that they are trying to outlaw privacy on your computing devices, such that any sane individual becomes a criminal, then an effective outlawing of financial privacy will make all users of good money criminals. At that point, nobody has anything to lose by disregarding the financial regulations and bitcoin is the most frictionless way to route around a damaged, overly-complex failing system, to date.

brg444
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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October 01, 2014, 09:34:15 PM
 #13123

"The Blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money".
I think you can make an even stronger statement:

"A distributed consensus ledger can only survive if it is successful as money."

Note that Bitcoin did not solve the Byzantine Generals Problem because that problem is unsolvable. Bitcoin made it so that any successful attack is uneconomical. That only works if bitcoins are valued as money.

This means anything that tries to replace Bitcoin's functionality will either do so by being better money or else won't be a distributed consensus ledger.

Most early Bitcoin adopters agree that Bitcoin's properties make it money and that "BTC as valuable money" is necessary for the blockchain to function.

An issue for the next phase of adoption though is the next set of adopters do not agree with this largely due to different political views on what constitutes money. Most people I know believe money can only be defined by a government and only functions if it is "managed" by a central body with the power to "expand supply to grow with the economy". (Nevermind this is never actually implemented in practice.) And so refuse to trust in anything else.

The argument that Bitcoin is money is not going to drive adoption, that only served to kick start adoption with politically aligned individuals.

Instead Bitcoin's usefulness as money will have to be the next driver for adoption. Either people find it easier to use online, or merchants offer BTC discounts, or people use Bitcoin to engage in illegal forms of trade, or automated services (bots) find BTC useful to trade, etc. This is where Bitcoin as a superior technology over fiat (a hundred year old technology) becomes a dominate factor.

I have to disagree for a couple of reasons.

The pool of potential adopters that understand the value of a limited supply assets as money is far from saturated (see: gold market)

This next set of adopters you are referring to certainly are in the dark as to what constitutes money but most of them are familiar with concepts of store of value that can appreciate with demand like gold and other precious metals.

Now, for numerous reasons this mainstream audience, a whole generation really, has not had much interest investing into these assets considering the general bear market they have been in and the inconvenience of investing into them.

Enter Bitcoin. For the first time in history, gold is available in digital form at the click of a button and can be purchased with a credit card (Circle).

Political ideologies or usefulness is not required to drive the next adoption phase. All we need is greed. All we need is for Bitcoin to get close to ATH again and we are off to the races.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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October 01, 2014, 10:15:36 PM
 #13124

The price of silver got slammed in September, as sales of 1oz American Eagles doubled at the US Mint. Sales of 1oz gold coins went from 21,000 in August to 50,000 in September. 

Sales figures for 1oz Silver coins via the US Mint. The October figures are probably September sales that didn't get reported.
 
July             1,975,000
August     2,007,500
September  4,140,000
October     1,150,000

justusranvier
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October 01, 2014, 10:32:37 PM
 #13125

All of financial history is littered with powerful demonstrations of how capital seeks the best form of money necessary to route around friction, capital controls, bad laws, regulatory overreach and capture. The crescendo of complexity of all these friction-inducing factors building in the current financial system makes Bitcoin inevitable. In fact, the harder they try to stop it the more desirable it will become to the market.

In the same way that they are trying to outlaw privacy on your computing devices, such that any sane individual becomes a criminal, then an effective outlawing of financial privacy will make all users of good money criminals. At that point, nobody has anything to lose by disregarding the financial regulations and bitcoin is the most frictionless way to route around a damaged, overly-complex failing system, to date.
...and that's the difference between people who are in this to make a quick buck, and people who are in this to build the tools that serve the future in which we want to live.
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October 01, 2014, 10:52:19 PM
 #13126

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. - Alan Greenspan

hmmmm...
marcus_of_augustus
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October 01, 2014, 10:54:54 PM
 #13127

Quote
Political ideologies or usefulness is not required to drive the next adoption phase. All we need is greed. All we need is for Bitcoin to get close to ATH again and we are off to the races.

... thus the powerful forces now aligning against any expansion in future Bitcoin price expectations.

tabnloz
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October 01, 2014, 10:59:36 PM
 #13128

More ecommerce bullion dealers taking on bitcoin integration

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/10/largest-precious-metals-comparison-site-integrates-bitcoin/

“It’s clear to me that Bitcoin will become a staple of eCommerce bullion dealers. Paying with Bitcoin often enables the consumer to enjoy immediate shipping (no need to wait for checks to clear or bankwire fees), while ensuring that the dealer always receives their payment. When bullion dealers integrate Bitcoin as a payment option, consumers enjoy the fastest service as there is no need to wait for payment to clear, and gold and silver dealers eliminate the need for a ‘market loss policy’ by collecting payment upfront.”
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October 01, 2014, 11:48:37 PM
 #13129

All we need is greed. All we need is for Bitcoin to get close to ATH again and we are off to the races.

you beat me to it, altho it doesn't need to get to the ATH.

all that is needed is for the price to start rising again.
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October 01, 2014, 11:51:57 PM
 #13130

this made me laugh.  but it's true and quite clever.  Daniel is the only guy with any substance at the Nakamoto Institute:

Every government agent has the opportunity and incentive to be an early adopter today, and the greater the incentive, the more likely is it that any government attack will be sabotaged by an early adopter among the agents carrying out the attack.

http://bitcoinist.net/bitcoins-obscene-wealth-disparity-is-a-feature/

i think it is amusing when thinking about a gvt led 51% attack in mining.
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October 02, 2014, 12:10:06 AM
 #13131

since we spent some time talking about the blockchain today, it occurred to me that it would be interesting to compare the costs of global accounting with the Bitcoin market cap, given that the blockchain is just one big ledger.  i didn't do much other than google the top 100 accounting firms in the world and eyeball add what appears to be their networth.  the top 10 total approx. $6 billion in value which is more than Bitcoin's $5 billion at this point.  and that's not counting all the other global firms and types of accounting at corporate and small business levels.  if someone wanted to do a more in depth analysis, it would make for a great study:

http://www.brw.com.au/lists/top-100-accounting-firms/2013/
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October 02, 2014, 02:23:35 AM
 #13132

we're gonna get a long awaited gold bounce for the gold bugs, maybe up to the resistance level as drawn:



the mirror image of this should be a drop in $DXY down to its support level:


zeetubes
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October 02, 2014, 02:46:17 AM
 #13133

Cypher, what are your thoughts on short term silver? I want to take a longer term position but short term I'm still worried.
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October 02, 2014, 02:49:46 AM
 #13134

Cypher, what are your thoughts on short term silver? I want to take a longer term position but short term I'm still worried.

Silver moves with gold. Short term up but beyond that, down.
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October 02, 2014, 03:03:59 AM
 #13135

Cypher, what are your thoughts on short term silver? I want to take a longer term position but short term I'm still worried.

Silver moves with gold. Short term up but beyond that, down.

Yep. We're each responsible for our financial bets. I like silver just for its industrial use but the physical purchase of coins in the last few weeks indicates to me it has some legs.
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October 02, 2014, 04:09:20 AM
 #13136

we're gonna get a long awaited gold bounce for the gold bugs, maybe up to the resistance level as drawn:



the mirror image of this should be a drop in $DXY down to its support level:




I think we head up for awhile now on gold...lets see

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October 02, 2014, 08:52:07 AM
 #13137

good sum up of the market's current situation: http://btccharts.everdot.org/bullbearsept2014.pdf
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October 02, 2014, 10:27:51 AM
 #13138

Most people I know believe money can only be defined by a government and only functions if it is "managed" by a central body with the power to "expand supply to grow with the economy". (Nevermind this is never actually implemented in practice.) And so refuse to trust in anything else.
Most people know more about how electricity works than they understand how money works (this includes the people who issue and control the money).

We know that electricity works in spite of how few people understand it.

Bitcoin will be the same. It will be adopted because it works long before people really understand how and why it works.

Yes. Most people believe that money is a 'thing'. But it isn't. Money is debt and never had been something different. Gold and Gold 2.0 are more or less liquid commodities.

A second major argument of the book is that, contrary to standard accounts of the history of money, debt is likely the oldest means of trade, with cash and barter transactions being later developments. Debt, the book argues, has typically retained its primacy, with cash and barter usually limited to situations of low trust involving strangers or those not considered credit-worthy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

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October 02, 2014, 10:32:54 AM
 #13139

That could be a very interesting service: Netagio launches his exchange between Gold, GBP and Bitcoin.

http://www.netagio.com/

The British Bitcoin industry is entering a phase of innovation and Netagio is proud to be a driver of change in the industry. This summer, in July, we successfully launched the first British peer-to-peer exchange that  allows both retail customers and institutional investors to trade gold, Bitcoins and GBP on the same platform.

Articoli bitcoin: Il portico dipinto
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October 02, 2014, 03:11:26 PM
 #13140

Dow down again.  for sure we'll get a weekly sell signal by the end of tomorrow unless something gets done quick.

VIX on the rise yet again and looking to break out.  fear is on the rise.

sounds simple enough, but diversify out of some risk assets and into something non-correlated:

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