Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[ingrownpocket]

And thanks for the analysis. I don't know why I keep reading, either, but it is amazing to watch.

[k]

I started posting because I thought it was cool how you could find out SD's bottom line from the publicly available blockchain.  I don't really know why I keep posting.  Partly it's a silly obsession, and partly people seem to appreciate it.  It's certainly not a good use of my time.

Thanks for all this job !!

Set your price for make it accessible 24/7 with graphs etc.. !
I'm sure all the S.DICE holders we'll be happy to contribute.

I'm sure you could make some money this way. Charge a fee for real time access and allow free access  to a delayed version.

[crazy_rabbit]

Maybe in the end, Satoshi will return and tell us the whole point of Bitcoin was to make Satoshi dice in the first place. Since of course, that's what it is used for more then anything else. 

[etotheipi]

Obligatory conspiracy mode: If you didn't get any money directly from Erik then etotheipi simply robbed you from your rightfully gained income. Ask him for a proof that he didn't get any money from Erik! etotheipi will be probably ashamed to admit that he neglected to squeeze any funds from Erik or at least have a cross-promotion deal with him regarding Armory.

Boring mode: I have nothing against your posts. The thread just drifted quite far. The original posts had some data about what percentage of transactions and what percentage of blockchain space is caused by Satoshi Dice. Now it is more about the financial aspect.

etotheipi can move this thread: there should be "move topic" and "lock topic" available to him. It just remains to choose which area to move to.

Hah!  I'm in the same boat as dooglus -- Erik has contacted me a few times asking for some analysis/advice on statistical matters, and then subsequently tipped for that advice.  But he's never even mentioned this thread, other than implicitly knowing that I already know when he's had a bad day and I already have all the data I would need to do some analysis...

On that note, I should thank dooglus for doing all this work.  I originally made the SD thread to track a variety of things, not just the blockchain bloat.  The "statistical analysis" in the title, still makes the financial aspect relevant.  I just wish I had more time to analyze the data with my statistical skillz.

I didn't realize that I could move threads... once there is some consensus about where it should go, I'll be happy to move it.

[scrybe]

Though I don't know if this is "Gambling" or "Service Discussion". (This thread isn't exactly a solicitation to gamble, after all...)

Or maybe even Securities as it is about the financials of SatoshiDice.

+1

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

Maybe in the end, Satoshi will return and tell us the whole point of Bitcoin was to make Satoshi dice in the first place. Since of course, that's what it is used for more then anything else. 

guess who bought the other 90%...

[ThickAsThieves]

You're welcome.  There's a link in my signature for that... 

1.00000512 BTC coming through to you now. Thanks again.

[dooglus]

1.00000512 BTC coming through to you now. Thanks again.

Thanks! 

[dooglus]

Worst day for satoshidice ever?

Total of 58 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jan-29 12:26pm (up to block 218637)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    76856 |       0 (0.00000) |   75566 |    1290 |     790.58 |       0.01 |   103.64 |    790.56 |   0.003
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3814 |       0 (0.00000) |    3317 |     497 |      62.49 |       0.01 |    17.03 |     62.48 |   0.020
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     5979 |       1 (0.00018) |    5557 |     421 |      86.98 |     159.97 |     8.46 |    -72.98 | 183.907
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8650 |       3 (0.00036) |    8221 |     426 |     130.78 |     176.01 |    10.03 |    -45.22 | 134.579
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    10485 |       1 (0.00010) |   10072 |     412 |     311.45 |       4.56 |    18.66 |    306.89 |   1.466
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    11575 |       3 (0.00027) |   11179 |     393 |     619.64 |     303.62 |     1.36 |    316.01 |  49.000
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    13868 |      14 (0.00104) |   13434 |     420 |     885.73 |     230.74 |    55.72 |    654.99 |  26.051
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    16157 |      31 (0.00197) |   15694 |     432 |    1954.25 |    1379.19 |    48.32 |    575.06 |  70.574
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    17938 |      78 (0.00444) |   17482 |     378 |    2247.20 |    3542.75 |    13.17 |  -1295.55 | 157.652
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    26848 |     201 (0.00768) |   25964 |     683 |    4443.85 |    4122.07 |     9.98 |    321.78 |  92.759
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    85869 |    1312 (0.01536) |   84108 |     449 |   22812.55 |   19207.97 |     1.95 |   3604.57 |  84.199
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    20350 |     476 (0.02380) |   19524 |     350 |    6530.52 |    6608.00 |    15.07 |    -77.47 | 101.186
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    51105 |    1574 (0.03103) |   49146 |     385 |   25349.58 |   22798.57 |     9.32 |   2551.01 |  89.937
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    23650 |    1078 (0.04640) |   22154 |     418 |    8618.38 |    9768.54 |    25.11 |  -1150.15 | 113.345
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    29285 |    1772 (0.06128) |   27143 |     370 |    6669.87 |    6239.21 |    31.28 |    430.65 |  93.543
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    35861 |    3341 (0.09421) |   32122 |     398 |   14167.42 |   15898.80 |     7.14 |  -1731.37 | 112.221
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   145237 |   17831 (0.12315) |  126956 |     450 |   70577.64 |   70857.86 |   100.22 |   -280.22 | 100.397
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    59405 |   10870 (0.18435) |   48095 |     440 |  139050.04 |  142268.56 |  3314.66 |  -3218.52 | 102.315
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   177844 |   43228 (0.24372) |  134137 |     479 |  313178.25 |  301753.76 |  2056.09 |  11424.49 |  96.352
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   172557 |   63334 (0.36814) |  108704 |     519 |  473747.23 |  478907.68 |  1012.96 |  -5160.45 | 101.089
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   923120 |  449982 (0.48821) |  471720 |    1418 |  721187.68 |  704498.03 |  2924.16 |  16689.64 |  97.686
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   421037 |  209817 (0.49937) |  210345 |     875 |  542316.27 |  531778.85 |  5720.39 |  10537.42 |  98.057
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   269949 |  198169 (0.73555) |   71246 |     534 |  261690.70 |  256088.63 |  5454.87 |   5602.06 |  97.859
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    52608 |   41428 (0.79393) |   10753 |     427 |   54307.80 |   53141.52 |  1187.19 |   1166.27 |  97.852
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    39747 |   33629 (0.85624) |    5646 |     472 |   57208.56 |   56774.27 |   400.23 |    434.29 |  99.241
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    53665 |   48741 (0.91586) |    4478 |     446 |   55958.77 |   55522.95 |     0.21 |    435.82 |  99.221
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    13077 |   12072 (0.98083) |     236 |     769 |   22389.40 |   22005.81 |   239.69 |    383.59 |  98.287
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2671711 | 1094119           | 1563330 |   14262 |  611092.23 |  598106.44 |   224.35 |  12985.78 |  97.875
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    94825 |   44867           |   49669 |     289 | 2196201.55 | 2165931.63 | 22562.70 |  30269.92 |  98.622
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2766536 | 1138986           | 1612999 |   14551 | 2807293.78 | 2764038.07 | 22787.05 |  43255.70 |  98.459
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      43255.70945392 BTC (1.541%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1964.45447500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       41291.25497892 BTC (1.471%)
Pending Liabilities:          148.07916462 BTC
Final SD Profit:            41143.17581430 BTC (1.466%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  9014017  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5093206  (56.5%)
Blockchain MB:   3846.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2091.3  (54.4%)

[ThickAsThieves]

I hope it's just a fluke and no one's found an angle.

[Bowjob]

Dice shares will now go down the drain

[dooglus]

It looks legit.  It's the same big player who has been playing all week.

The 10k loss is pretty much entirely accounted for by 222 bets of 250 BTC on lessthan 24000.

123 lost, losing 248.7505 BTC per bet for a total loss of 30596.3115 BTC,
 99 won, winning 417.53216666 BTC per bet for a total win of 41335.68449934 BTC,
making a net win of 10739.37299934 BTC over the 222 bets.

Here's a graph of the probability of winning X out of 222 bets on lessthan 24000.  The most likely number of wins is 81:

Code:

>>> 222 * float(24000)/65536
81.298828125

and 99 is quite unlikely:



Edit:  here's some Python code to generate the probabilities:

Code:

#!/usr/bin/env python

import string, sys
lessthan, trials = string.atoi(sys.argv[1]), string.atoi(sys.argv[2])

def factorial(x):
  if x < 2: return 1
  return x * factorial(x - 1)

def c(n, k): return factorial(n) / (factorial(k) * factorial(n - k))

p = float(lessthan) / 65536
for x in range(trials + 1): print "%3d %f" % (x, c(trials, x) * p**x * (1-p)**(trials-x))

and an example of it running (for 6 plays on lessthan 32000):

Code:

$ ./binomial.py 32000 6
  0 0.017955
  1 0.102796
  2 0.245220
  3 0.311985
  4 0.223272
  5 0.085218
  6 0.013553

[dooglus]

It looks legit.  It's the same big player who has been playing all week.

Except...  that http://blockchain.info/double-spends lists a few big bets from the high roller, for example this one:



I don't really understand that double-spends page - I would expect it to show pairs of conflicting transactions, but it doesn't as far as I can see.

The high roller uses the following 8 addresses, by the way:

Code:

15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric

[ThickAsThieves]

Except...  that http://blockchain.info/double-spends lists a few big bets from the high roller, for example this one:

Is that to say, that once the double spends iron out, the total could be different, and these numbers aren't necessarily totally confirmed yet?

[StarenseN]

Thanks for the deep analysis dooglus.

+0.5 tip

[dooglus]

Is that to say, that once the double spends iron out, the total could be different, and these numbers aren't necessarily totally confirmed yet?

No, the numbers I've published are only for bets that have been confirmed, and had their payout transactions confirmed too.

The double-spends page just makes me think that maybe the big player has been deliberately double-spending some of his losing bets.

Thanks for the deep analysis dooglus.

+0.5 tip

Thank you.  

[nimda]

Dice shares will now go down the drain

Profit is still up for the month

[m0mchil]

I don't really understand that double-spends page - I would expect it to show pairs of conflicting transactions, but it doesn't as far as I can see.

Perhaps piuk will provide more details about the double-spends page. I'd guess that it lists transactions that spend inputs which are used in previously known (to blockchain.info) transactions. The majority of them should not enter a block. Every SDICE profit which is double-spent and confirmed, as with the ones you noted, is a dent in the edge.

[EskimoBob]

...
The high roller uses the following 8 addresses, by the way:

Code:

15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric

You obviously know what you are doing Can you figure out, how and where did the coin get to those accounts?
I still like my "idea" (more like a speculation) that this mysterious whale is sdice guy(s) himself and he is only trying to make sdice looks stronger and more profitable to possible future investors.
Only problem is, he "fucked up" and sdice "lost" a boat load of coin

[ThickAsThieves]

...
The high roller uses the following 8 addresses, by the way:

Code:

15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric

You obviously know what you are doing Can you figure out, how and where did the coin get to those accounts?
I still like my "idea" (more like a speculation) that this mysterious whale is sdice guy(s) himself and he is only trying to make sdice looks stronger and more profitable to possible future investors.
Only problem is, he "fucked up" and sdice "lost" a boat load of coin

Even if S.DICE was being fluffed, it would come at 10% expense to the "whale" while losing, because 10% of the dividends are public.

Anyone can bet what they want on the site, even majority shareholders with less to lose (because they'll see some of their losses come back thru dividends). This is only a problem if the odds are in the whale's favor, I think...