Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"

[memvola]

Micon - if you are so sure put a bet on it like vandroiy  or on betsofbitcoin...  talk is cheap. 

As explained before in this thread, betting against pirate, especially if you lose the bet, is a winning game.

On the other hand, there are many community-vetted borrowers out there who are labelled by Micon as scams. If you can structure a bet against them, that would be lovely. I sincerely don't think any of them are scams, and would bet that most of them won't default (a minimal number of them might; accidents happen). Still, tying my coins till the end of 2013 seems like a bad idea. Maybe the end of 2012.

We could list 5 trusted borrowers, and make a bet that at least 4 of them will still be paying without excessive delay, or have paid in full, by the end of 2012. Would Micon and others be interested in such a bet?

[1714143628]

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[Eisenhower34]

I bet $1000 (have to transfer the money from my paxum acc first) or 100 BTC that pirate will default before 2013, anyone who wants to bet against me?

In case someone is taking up my bet now, please leave me a pm, i dont check this thread very often

Edit:

I would propose the 200 BTC invested into chungenhung https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=56853.0 paying 8% monthly covered by mining or somwhere else. With the 8% monthly each of us would get 40 BTC back in 5 months, so its actually for each of us a bet of 3:10 which are pretty good odds for a 50:50 bet

[hgmichna]

this thing is in it's death throes.  There comes is a point where weekly new investment + re-investment < interest actually paying out and the scammer realizes the scam is now costing, not making $.  this thing is about as big as it can get in BTC land.

tick tock... tick tock...

I think that too. Were there any payouts today?

He will continue at least as long as new investors pay in more than he has to pay out. However, the extreme interest rate cuts both ways---it attracts stupid "investors", but it also makes his debt grow exponentially. Even if only a fraction of his "investors" want their interest or part of their interest paid out, that part is also growing exponentially, seen from a statistical point of view.

Another question is, will he continue even if his mountain of money shrinks, just to buy more time? He may need some time for money laundering, for planning his departure, for covering his tracks, etc. Even that cannot last long, but it could extend the time for another few weeks.

How about his promised appearance on DefCon? Since he cannot really appear there, for fear of being identified, that should also make his "investors" weary. My prediction was that he will make up an appearance or appear only in front of his collaborators. But the fact that he announced his appearance at all, well knowing that he cannot appear in front of his "investors", indicates that he did not intend to continue his Ponzi scheme for long.

Of course he could try to repeat the appearance of Charles/Carlos Ponzi, who served drinks to his "investors" until he was taken away in handcuffs. But then why did pirateat40 choose to accept only bitcoins for his "investments"?

[Micon]

Micon - if you are so sure put a bet on it like vandroiy  or on betsofbitcoin...  talk is cheap. 

I tried to snap-bet a guy 100 BTC back there, and was then called out for trying to run possible freeroll so I decided to forgo any free money I could make by betting on this obvious ponzi obviously failing soon.

In the interest of full disclosure I do have I think a .5 BTC bet at betsofbitcoin that BCST fails before 2012.

very jealous of Vandroiy's bet - seems like a +EV move by Pirate as once it was escrowed he prolly solicited more than 5000 btc in deposits after that stunt.  This 10k BTC is escrowed by a trusted community member?  not a pirate friendly?

[Micon]

this thing is in it's death throes.  There comes is a point where weekly new investment + re-investment < interest actually paying out and the scammer realizes the scam is now costing, not making $.  this thing is about as big as it can get in BTC land.

tick tock... tick tock...

I think that too. Were there any payouts today?

He will continue at least as long as new investors pay in more than he has to pay out. However, the extreme interest rate cuts both ways---it attracts stupid "investors", but it also makes his debt grow exponentially. Even if only a fraction of his "investors" want their interest or part of their interest paid out, that part is also growing exponentially, seen from a statistical point of view.

Another question is, will he continue even if his mountain of money shrinks, just to buy more time? He may need some time for money laundering, for planning his departure, for covering his tracks, etc. Even that cannot last long, but it could extend the time for another few weeks.

How about his promised appearance on DefCon? Since he cannot really appear there, for fear of being identified, that should also make his "investors" weary. My prediction was that he will make up an appearance or appear only in front of his collaborators. But the fact that he announced his appearance at all, well knowing that he cannot appear in front of his "investors", indicates that he did not intend to continue for long.

Of course he could try to repeat the appearance of Charles/Carlos Ponzi, who served drinks to his "investors" until he was taken away in handcuffs. But then why did pirateat40 choose to accept only bitcoins for his "investments"?

1)  his thread is now locked.  any BCST interest reporting threads?

2)  I was at Rio for 3 days straight for defcon. I wore a BTC button in plain view in the middle of my shirt at all times.  Played some poker, talked to some awesome humans there. regret not buying the badge for $200.

[CoinCidental]

Micon - if you are so sure put a bet on it like vandroiy  or on betsofbitcoin...  talk is cheap. 

I tried to snap-bet a guy 100 BTC back there, and was then called out for trying to run possible freeroll so I decided to forgo any free money I could make by betting on this obvious ponzi obviously failing soon.

In the interest of full disclosure I do have I think a .5 BTC bet at betsofbitcoin that BCST fails before 2012.

very jealous of Vandroiy's bet - seems like a +EV move by Pirate as once it was escrowed he prolly solicited more than 5000 btc in deposits after that stunt.  This 10k BTC is escrowed by a trusted community member?  not a pirate friendly?

What if pirate and vandroiy were the same person ?

he could silence his loudest and most vocal  critic for free while winning the confidence of hundreds of new investors with  a 5000/5000 win/win bet for himself

[dooglus]

What if pirate and vandroiy were the same person ?

he could silence his loudest and most vocal  critic for free while winning the confidence of hundreds of new investors with  a 5000/5000 win/win bet for himself

Except that Vandroiy didn't shut up after the bet...

[Shadow383]

Hey Micon, surely this interests you:

i did not receive my interest yet but the bitcoin max has already process the payment

any updates on pirate40 ?

He just got back from vegas and had a few personal issues to take care of.  Payouts were delayed, but were sent out a few hours ago.

but not to me yet for some reason.

i'm starting to wonder if i'm the only one who hasn't got their BST payment yet.

just so you all know... there are now 30 outstanding withdrawal requests, some of which are quite large.

i will still be processing these in order, as deposits become available, but there will be significant delays if you're only on the recent end of that list.

[CoinCidental]

What if pirate and vandroiy were the same person ?

he could silence his loudest and most vocal  critic for free while winning the confidence of hundreds of new investors with  a 5000/5000 win/win bet for himself

Except that Vandroiy didn't shut up after the bet...

Yes,but when Vandroiy is shouting the loudest ,oters may feel its all alreahy been said before
it creates confusion and other people who might have have also shouted cant be bothered

Even if vandroiy is a real critic ,its nothing to pirate to lose 5000 btc if his intentions are to scam
300-400,000 btc

the bet probably helped the investment scheme more than hindered it......

[dooglus]

the bet probably helped the investment scheme more than hindered it......

I think it's safe to say that pirate wouldn't have taken the bet if it wasn't in his interest to do so.

It's quite possible that both sides end up profiting from the bet.

[Micon]

http://jokerdragonbtcif.blogspot.ca/

Joker scam added

[Willowbitcoin]

While i sympathize with your mission micon i cant help but feel you have caused more harm than good in your pursuit of cleaning up this forum.

[Micon]

While i sympathize with your mission micon i cant help but feel you have caused more harm than good in your pursuit of cleaning up this forum.

how so?  IMO the worst thing is to stand by and let these scammers take advantage of the community

[Matthew N. Wright]

While i sympathize with your mission micon i cant help but feel you have caused more harm than good in your pursuit of cleaning up this forum.

how so?  IMO the worst thing is to stand by and let these scammers take advantage of the community

"Let them"? As someone who railed against spreadsheet games when I first got here, I feel your pain, but keep your politics out of my bitcoin. I don't need the police telling me when and when I cannot take a piss, I don't need a crazed anonymous slandering troll telling me where I can and can't spend my money. Try giving some constructive criticism and tell people the dangers of things.

[Frankie]

While i sympathize with your mission micon i cant help but feel you have caused more harm than good in your pursuit of cleaning up this forum.

how so?  IMO the worst thing is to stand by and let these scammers take advantage of the community

"Let them"? As someone who railed against spreadsheet games when I first got here, I feel your pain, but keep your politics out of my bitcoin. I don't need the police telling me when and when I cannot take a piss, I don't need a crazed anonymous slandering troll telling me where I can and can't spend my money. Try giving some constructive criticism and tell people the dangers of things.

He's not saying they should be banned. His "constructive criticism" is that HYIP schemes should not be in the "lending" forum.

He hardly seems like a brownshirt.

[Matthew N. Wright]

While i sympathize with your mission micon i cant help but feel you have caused more harm than good in your pursuit of cleaning up this forum.

how so?  IMO the worst thing is to stand by and let these scammers take advantage of the community

"Let them"? As someone who railed against spreadsheet games when I first got here, I feel your pain, but keep your politics out of my bitcoin. I don't need the police telling me when and when I cannot take a piss, I don't need a crazed anonymous slandering troll telling me where I can and can't spend my money. Try giving some constructive criticism and tell people the dangers of things.

He's not saying they should be banned. His "constructive citizen" is that HYIP schemes should not be in the "lending" forum.

He hardly seems like a brownshirt.

Why did you quote "constructive citizen"? lol

I agree with him completely that it shouldn't be in lending. There should be a section called "DEEP DARK HIGH RISK NO TRANSPARENCY THREATS TO YOUR MONEY". That said, unless you -know- what it is, you can't go around saying it's a ponzi. It's incorrect.

[Kluge]

It's time to add me to your list. I've had a change-of-heart with regards to Pirate, and will be depositing in a pass-through.

1kBTC in an uninsured pass-through.

Add me to the list. Additionally, on GLBSE are BDK and BDK.BND which should be added. 

[RDegas]

I have placed my bet:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=97094.0

I'm not taking sides, here as I think Micon has over reached and has failed to back up his claims other than speculation, although he may well be correct that the risk is nowhere near sustainable.  Other than having some coin invested with pay.bc, I'm pretty agnostic about the issue (other than some points I made upstream).

That being said, what's the timeline on your bet?  As far as I can tell, it's just a bet that says it won't fail.  Are you saying it won't fail in X amount of time, or that it won't ever fail?  If it doesn't ever fail, will you be keeping your money in until it closes down for other reasons?  Otherwise, it seems like your money will be stuck forever.

Or, is this more of a rhetorical point?

[RDegas]

Good question.  Had not planned that far ahead.  I do know I will be compounding until the interest rate goes down.  When that happens then I will reevaluate, maybe take some out, maybe leave it in - don't know yet.

Do you have a suggestion for a time line?

Micon seems to believe it will fail by the end of 2013.  Are you willing to keep all 10,000 in until that point?

[CoinCidental]

I have placed my bet:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=97094.0

I'm not taking sides, here as I think Micon has over reached and has failed to back up his claims other than speculation, although he may well be correct that the risk is nowhere near sustainable.  Other than having some coin invested with pay.bc, I'm pretty agnostic about the issue (other than some points I made upstream).

That being said, what's the timeline on your bet?  As far as I can tell, it's just a bet that says it won't fail.  Are you saying it won't fail in X amount of time, or that it won't ever fail?  If it doesn't ever fail, will you be keeping your money in until it closes down for other reasons?  Otherwise, it seems like your money will be stuck forever.

Or, is this more of a rhetorical point?

what do you mean when you say things like "If it doesnt ever fail "

it absolutely has  to fail if you look at the numbers

if it keeps going on like this in less than 2 years all the bitcoins in existence will have been paid out in interest alone  INCLUDING the ones that havent been mined yet  

double any number every 3 months and see how fast you get to 22 million and you will soon understand why its impossible

   350,000 now
   700,000 in 3 months
 1,400,000 in 6 months
 2,800,000 in 9 months
 5,200,000 in 12 months
10,400,000 in 15 months
20,800,000 in 18 months
41,600,000 in 21 months
83,200,000 in 24 months .....