Man, that video makes me want to buy a diamond encrusted eye patch Thanks for the video. Somehow I ended up watching the first episode of DS9 because of your two posts. Now, I'm hooked on DS9, a series I never got into prior. I'm a trekkie. All series except "enterprise", and not a lot of love for voyager, but it was ok. DS9's first season was kind of 'eh'. From the second season to the finale it was really good.
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No of course, it's my prediction, based on my reasoning.
Your "reasoning" is clouded by being a knc-fanboi. The hashrate is not going to "level out" for quite some time. Hashrate will level out when peoples want/need for money/greed levels out. I have to disagree. That's a bottomless well. It'll hit technical barriers long before that.
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Oh, I freely admit that it was a fluke (the one I saw was not the ASIC miner thing, I do remember that.) If the block you saw is not related to the ASICMiner refund, then show me where you saw a block which generated 200 BTC in transactions fees. I want see with my own eyes if such block even exist... It wasn't 200 BTC in fees but 2.7 BTC if Biomech is talking about the one i'm thinking of: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/11731/anomalous-2-7-btc-transaction-fee-observed. It was talked about in this thread recently or at least on bitcointalk i think but i'm not going to search for it. You may be correct. I haven't had a lot of sleep of late. I saw it about a week ago, either here or reddit. At any rate, and this is to Augusto Croppo specifically and also a general thought. I do NOT know a great deal of the technical aspects of bitcoin. I'm still learning, and I am not a mathematician so a lot of it is currently beyond me. That being said, I am well versed in economics, particularly Austrian school, but I have read and understood Keynes to the extent that anyone can understand that gobbledygook. I understand markets and money. What I am proposing is simple on it's face, but somewhat complex in it's actions. This, I think, is one future avenue to gain widespread acceptance of bitcoin. Yes, it has unique properties that make it IN ITSELF a vehicle for monetary transactions, and yes, I understand that this does not in itself generate fees. Therefore it is incumbent on the bitcoin community, and especially miners, to implement schemes that DO generate these fees. And yes, this scheme would require a form of banking. This is not egregious. Banking in and of itself is not harmful to economies. Fractional reserve banking is, because it "creates" units of currency that do not currently actually exist. In it's base form, it borrows against what a lender can repay ahead of time. That is dangerous, but not egregious. In it's more modern form, the "central bank" sees those loans as actual money and adjusts the supply accordingly. That's straight up theft in the form of debasing the currency. This we do want to avoid. But a bank or similar institution issuing debit cards that transact with the network is not a problem, except for technical issues that are frankly minor. I'll say for the sake of speculation that Visa decides to issue the Visa-B bitcoin debit card, and they charge the seller around 1 percent of their transactions. This is normal, actually a bit low. Visa averages around 1.6 percent. Or did about 5 years ago. This does NOT cause a decline in transactions, as accepting Visa gives merchants a huge advantage over those who don't. So now, in this example, you have a bitcoin denominated visa card. Visa already does "currency equivalent" transactions, so this would be trivial to them. Now, let's say that they put 10 percent of their income to transaction fees to facilitate the network. See how this could work? Further, on a slightly different angle, large merchants like Target or Walmart could issue bitcoin denominated gift cards, with a portion of every sale set as a transaction fee (sale of the g/c). This too would add to the network, and would be advantageous to the merchant as it would be yet another avenue of revenue for them. It costs them nothing, only slightly reduces THEIR income on the purchase fee. These are just two possible schemes to add to the TX fees in the network. If the miners are participants in such a schema, then it benefits them far beyond just generating BTC via mining, and it helps the merchants to contribute to those who maintain the security of the network. Using personal advantage as a springboard, such cooperative ventures benefit everyone involved, including the consumer who now has another avenue of transaction. This is somewhat complex, but not overly complicated. This is doable with existing structures and networks. There is NO reason that it shouldn't be done that I can see. Mainstream adoption WILL increase the value of bitcoin over time due to it's deflationary nature AND the inflationary nature inherent in standard fiat currencies. As more people use the currency, the demand for it will drive it's value upward. This has nothing to do with the network itself, but everything to do with it's artificial scarcity. This is fairly basic economics. The more scarce a thing is that is in demand, the higher the purchasing power of it's owners.
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I heard USA is bankrupt.
Officially declared as such in 1971. Didn't know it was once bankrupted. taking the dollar off of the Bretton Woods standard, making it 100 percent fiat, was as close to shouting 'bankrupt' from the rooftops as you could possibly get. It's probably the biggest debt default in history.
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Since governments rule by force and threat of force (if'n you don't do as we say, we are gonna come lookin' for ya), I have a low opinion of any government. I can rule myself, thank you.
I hate you people that can pull off brevity! (j/k, I actually just wish I could be that brief and still get my point across. I agree with this post 100 percent.
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UPS has a feature where they email you with a tracking number. DHL doesn't automatically do that. Mine came directly from KNC in order to shut me up (I imagine).
Same here. I asked for and paid for UPS shipping and got DHL (don't know whether that is good or bad) and it was shipped on the 16th, not the 15th as they had indicated. Based on my experiences with both carriers, you got upgraded. UPS can screw up anything, and seem proud of it.
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Where does the operating system and software come from, if not from the CPU? Is computer software just an illusion being experienced by a computer?
given the often unpredictable behaviours of computers, I would have to say yes!
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You need to get a PR team together RIGHT NOW, to do daily updates and communication, and most particularly to smooth ruffled feathers. Silence is not golden.
Sounds like they heard you based on today's update: We will continue to post a news update on our site every day stating how many boxes have been shipped and how far behind the end of the queue we are. They continue to score points with me... I asked Bitcoinorama to point Sam to the post. He most likely read it. Hopefully I wasn't too harsh Wasn't my intent, but they do need to do those things. and I did as you asked. It was a fair, balanced comment, as most of yours are. Thanks! It may be the only balance in my life! (whiplash grin)
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Isn't one of the points of BTC to replace these companies? (Remember this is just Visa, you can imagine how many transactions happen across all of these merchants and physical dollar transactions)
No, people will spend inflative fiat money anyway. Having payment function does not mean bitcoin will be used in daily shopping, it is just too precious to serve those purposes. People only need to cash out some coin once/twice a year to fiat money, and continue use their VISA card to do daily shopping This is what needs to be addressed. Right now, most who are using bitcoin are apparently using it as savings or an "alternative" currency. If we are to see this experiment succeed in the long term, then that perception needs to change. Prior to 1937, the dollar was GOLD, and it was used in daily transactions. Bitcoin has some of the advantages of gold and much of the easy utility of fiat, plus it's scarcity and generation protocol make it likely to increase in value over time (which was rather up and down with gold over the centuries). Simply put, the more people USE bitcoin in daily transactions, the higher it's value. As for the transaction fees driving people away, not so much. Visa and Mastercard thrive on transaction fees. People barely notice.
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You need to get a PR team together RIGHT NOW, to do daily updates and communication, and most particularly to smooth ruffled feathers. Silence is not golden.
Sounds like they heard you based on today's update: We will continue to post a news update on our site every day stating how many boxes have been shipped and how far behind the end of the queue we are. They continue to score points with me... I asked Bitcoinorama to point Sam to the post. He most likely read it. Hopefully I wasn't too harsh Wasn't my intent, but they do need to do those things.
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Oh, I freely admit that it was a fluke (the one I saw was not the ASIC miner thing, I do remember that.) But to say it's unreachable to have 600+ transactions in a ten minute period? I must severely disagree! How many dollar transactions do you think happen in ten minutes? Personally, I have no idea, but I do know that it's several orders of magnitude higher than that.
This is what I'm trying to say. If we can find a way to take BTC mainstream, that 200 BTC/block would be a LOW average.
Well let's just throwing this out there. VisaNet authorizes, clears and settles an average of 150 million transactions per day in 200 countries and territories. ~104,000 transactions/second Isn't one of the points of BTC to replace these companies? (Remember this is just Visa, you can imagine how many transactions happen across all of these merchants and physical dollar transactions) The minimum fee would be lowered at this point anyways because if BTC was adopted this widespread, the price per BTC would be much much higher. Bingo!
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I saw a post recently where one block had over 200 BTC in TX fees. That should be EVERY block, and it would be if BTC were a mainstream currency. Then you wouldn't be worrying about short term ROI, as every block would be significantly more powerful than simply it's block reward.
You are exaggerating. Wider utilization of the Bitcoin Network is not a factor to predict increase/decrease in the volume or price of the transaction fees. You think that transaction fees should generate 200 BTC because you are assuming the case you saw was a result of ordinary collected fees. That is not true and the average fees generated by a block are less than the reward of 25 BTC. E.g. If 200 BTC had been generated by only minimum transaction fee, that would mean: 200 / 0.00050000 = 400,000 transactions Assuming that a block is generated in average each 10 minutes (600 seconds), that would result in: 400,000 / 600 = 666.6... In other words, you are assuming the Bitcoin Network had a block which was generated by 666.6... transactions per second. This is absurd. At the present moment, 12:47 GMT +0, the Bitcoin Network processed 57,155 transactions in the last 24 hours. That means 0.66 transactions per second: 57,155 / 86,400 = 0.6615162037... Step down of your soapbox and rethink about your hypothesis, because you are not providing a good background for your claim. You forgot to consider that 200 BTC transaction fee could be the result of a mistake: https://blockchain.info/tx/b18abce37b48a5f434f108ae7ce34f22aa2bfbd9eb9310314029e4b9e3c7cf95http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lb5my/asicminer_refunds_the_accidental_200_btc/ASICMiner refunds the accidental 200 BTC transaction fee. Friedcat is a true hero of the Bitcoin community Oh, I freely admit that it was a fluke (the one I saw was not the ASIC miner thing, I do remember that.) But to say it's unreachable to have 600+ transactions in a ten minute period? I must severely disagree! How many dollar transactions do you think happen in ten minutes? Personally, I have no idea, but I do know that it's several orders of magnitude higher than that. This is what I'm trying to say. If we can find a way to take BTC mainstream, that 200 BTC/block would be a LOW average.
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Short term thinking.
The exponential rise cannot continue indefinitely. The gradual (though rather nice today) rise in bitcoin is LIKELY to continue.
As far as I can tell, there is always a short-lived rally on the BTC exchange rate just before the difficulty goes up. We shall see in a few hours :-) imho it is more due to the idiots in Washington and the fact they can't find a solution to debt issues and BTC improves as US dollar looks less then rosy assuming they fix stuff...i'd expect BTC to go down significantly when people figure out the large difficulty increases in near future and rush to get ROI back on their shiny soon to be outdated equip (and yes i'm still in denial since I decided to call this an 'eccentric" hobby......(denial is a heady drug in these circumstances) (funny humans ......so silly) Searing [soapbox] This is why it is essential that miners start promoting bitcoin for general exchange in any way you possibly can. TX fees are the future of mining profitability, and for that future to come to fruition, BTC has to be as useable as the dollar. It has massive advantages OVER the dollar if it can gain mainstream acceptance. I saw a post recently where one block had over 200 BTC in TX fees. That should be EVERY block, and it would be if BTC were a mainstream currency. Then you wouldn't be worrying about short term ROI, as every block would be significantly more powerful than simply it's block reward. Volume of purchase is the game that needs to be opened up. Right now, even though it has garnered a significant amount of notice, BTC remains a niche money rather than a generally useful currency. If you want your miners to make you money, then you gotta expand your horizons. We need to see all sorts of thing priced in BTC, with the various national fiats as the ALTERNATIVE price, rather than the other way 'round. [/soapbox]
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I heard USA is bankrupt.
Officially declared as such in 1971.
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Short term thinking.
The exponential rise cannot continue indefinitely. The gradual (though rather nice today) rise in bitcoin is LIKELY to continue.
As far as I can tell, there is always a short-lived rally on the BTC exchange rate just before the difficulty goes up. We shall see in a few hours :-) I've noticed the same thing, but the drop seems to still end up a little above where it was. I've also seen an odd correlation with gold over the last few months. Not totally consistent, but pretty close. When gold drops bitcoin goes up. Doesn't seem to correlate with other (dollar/Euro etc) exchange rates either, just gold. Haven't graphed it, it's just eyeball analysis, but it's interesting. Plus I'm rather encouraged that BTC recovered to it's previous level in just under five days after the precipitous drop on the news of the Silk Road bust. I knew it was a panic sell, of course, but I thought it would take longer to recover. I just wish I'd had some dollars to throw at it that day.
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How come crumb's ignore button is sooooo dark yellow while avenger's is just fine!
Well, it should have got a little "yellower" yesterday... I tried to hit the avengers ignore button yesterday, but it wasn't there. The guy is such a dick. Might I suggest a little more tact? You do go after people like a terrier with "big dog" syndrome.
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Yay, miner came today after being stuck in swedish customs for a day Still, why UPS? They delivered a 7000$ unit to the BABYSITTER of my neighbour, while I was at home waiting for the doorbell to ring.... UPS blows goats. I have about 30 years of proof!
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SAAAAM!! SAAAAM!! Ok, so you're trying to fool us with your "In progress" bullshit for the rest of the month orders in advance to avoid refunds. Well, I've been a human being "in progress" for the last 30 years, does that mean I'm about to ship? hey at least you aint still "paid". All kidding aside. with the dificulty about to change i do have to say that the miner now is almost way out of anyones complete roi period. It is a big downfall. I will give till the end of the month befor i take legal action. Don't question me. Keep in mind this. There was a promis to SHIP all miners out by the 15. That as not happened. That is more then enough grounds. I sure hope KNC has one hell of a magic rabit. Yeah, 'cause all those saying that BTC is rising forget the fact that difficulty rises are exponential and more than offset the standard/linear increases in BTC value. So they should put that argument to rest. Short term thinking. The exponential rise cannot continue indefinitely. The gradual (though rather nice today) rise in bitcoin is LIKELY to continue.
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'Orama,
I'd like to thank you for everything you've done so far. I made my decision to become a KnC customer after reading your detailed reports about the open day. Please know that there are many happy customers out there like me who appreciate your service. On behalf of the vast majority of the readers of this thread, thank you.
Well said, buy him a beer on his tip address Did that. Wish I could have done more.
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Just an Update: Knc did get my order mixed up with a later order somehow, as I was a day 1 2xx order and to there credit they owned up to it and offered 10 btc or a refund, which I definitely respect which we never would have heard from those other companies, I just hope they get it right for everyone as I do believe they had the best intentions and this response proves just that, to me anyways.
WOW KNC has scored major points with me with this. Unprecedented so far with ASIC manufacturers. I've just been offered the option to cancel my OCTOBER delivery orders (end of the queue, at this moment still showing "paid") for a full refund. Or i can wait "few more days" to be built and shipped with no further compensations. Simply because KNC finally dropped that imperative and annoying "NO REFUNDS" made me take a decision.
Even more points! While not perfect, it's looking like KNC is going to be a very legit company IMO. Yeah, I think so too. I think we're looking at a bunch of "gung-ho" engineers and managers who bit off more than they could chew, and most importantly, failed to account for Mr. Murphy. I suspect they are suffering from wounded pride and reacting as engineers usually do in such a case: trying to fix it before they say anything. Commendable on the engineering floor, but stupid in the wider world of commerce. They REALLY need to hire a professional PR team. A good PR guy can say nothing in a lot of words and calm people the fuck down. That's what they need right now. It appears that they are trying to do right by their customers, but don't really know how. It happens. A lot. It can break an otherwise great company, and that they need to get sorted. Now. Sam, if you are reading these forums (or Alex, point him here if you would be so kind), I am a rather experienced restaurant manager and I can give you some serious pointers here about customer service. In my industry, our CS margins are measured in minutes, or we lose. You have a bit more leeway than that, but you should act as if you don't. Your engineers pulled off a miracle. No doubt about that. It appears that in the large picture, they got their shit straight together. Now it's your turn. I'm being blunt, not mean. You need to do one thing and stop doing another. You need to get a PR team together RIGHT NOW, to do daily updates and communication, and most particularly to smooth ruffled feathers. Silence is not golden. If you have nothing to update, it's STILL better to SAY SO. Often. This makes the customers feel as if they are being taken seriously, even when they're not. To me it's obvious that you ARE taking them serious, but you aren't illustrating it very well. You should have somebody making a status report at least twice a day while y'all are getting things sorted. I know it's a pain in the ass, but it's necessary. What you need to stop doing is talking about policy. At all. Because if you make an offhand or exuberant comment on camera, and later have to alter it, you look like an idiot or a liar. You don't appear to me to be either of those, but the perception of a loose cannon CEO can often be worse than the actuality of a Loose Cannon CEO. Just ask Bernie Ebbers. His mouth shot down Worldcomm far more than the actual problems they had. For the sake of full disclosure, I worked for Worldcomm when all that shit went down, and I had met Mr. Ebbers on three occasions. I believe he was not in the wrong, and Worldcomm was a great employer. Their successor, OTOH, sucked badly. But they are still in business and Worldcomm is not. Run whatever you are going to say in public by your lawyers. Your bottom line will thank you, and it will contribute to your success. In modern warfare, you have to use the right sort of weapons. In the world of business, the best sidearm you can carry is a good lawyer. Good luck to all involved. It is my belief that KnC is a good outfit who hit some speedbumps and didn't know how to handle it. I frankly expected them to perform far worse than they so far had, and still would have bet on them. Engineering they are clearly good at. The front of the house needs serious revision. I think they'll get there. These are not stupid men. But pride is a double edged sword, and can do more damage than stupidity if not controlled.
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