No one is going to take this one away from us. Just relax and find out at what moment last year price broke through $6k.
There is nothing to worry about.
Agreed. Price broke to the upside above $6k just 5 short months ago. Taking a long view is better. Relax... even if it gets back to $2k that doesn't negate the long bull case. |
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How much lower can this go, I don’t want to be seeing below $6,000 but it really wouldn’t surprise me. We’ve been in free fall for months.
Probably back to where it was only about 6 months ago. $2500. 1 year ago it was $1000, but I doubt it could go that low. The time taken is more important, though. Another 2 years of declines would be tough. Best hope is for a swift bumpy ride down to $2000 over the next few months. We are in a Bear Market, and best to get it over with asap. A rise in the next month and failed retest of $10000 would be bad news. |
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Most of the ppl in Crypto (speculation) have a very short time horizon. A days action may seem like a lot.
They find it difficult to see the longer term picture. That is why there is so much conflicting opinion.
A view on price always has the caveat of a time frame.
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Starting to look like that....all the friends and relatives are 'piling on' that I am an Idiot..and that I should sell, sell, sell it all!
Luckily, (or unluckily depending on how low BTC and ALTS dump) ...I am essentially 'immune' to peer pressure on such...however...they are sooooo wound up about it
I may cause a couple coronary's among my friends... (hmmmm)
....1. For the vulnerable ones : Tell 'em you sold your BTC 'to avoid total loss'. Then try (!) not to mention it again. They will soon forget about it. ... Flaw : Impossible for you to keep quiet in future....
Here lies my confusion... WTF does it matter if I take a flyer on crypto?
....2. Pretend the price is now at 2k, with alts worse. Add up your total crypto worth. Not worth selling now ? Just Hodl and concentrate on other stuff. Hell, you must have taken this sort of risk again and again since 2013. as you say , does it matter ?...
it is that 1.5 billion USD hanging out there from mt. gox that is the cause of all this IMHO
...I dont think MtGox is an issue. This is just a Bear Market/ Crypto Winter that was ready to roll anyway. It may need 2 years + to shake out all the weak hands. Think 2014... not a pleasant thought, but we made it through that one. (how did you manage then ?) Sell a very little now and again if you want to make yourself feel better. Then just hunker down. I have 2 fulltime businesses to run (unconnected with Crypto), so my attention was fully taken in 2014-16. Start a new venture. Just my 2c |
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Were there special issues in the last weeks why the price dropped so hardly? Or was it just because of the general downtrend/correction from Bitcoin?
Who knows ? One possibility is a lot of ETH being fiat/BTC cashed-out from the last few months ICOs, now that more regulation is coming. |
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for me that means a strong bounce to catch optimistic bulls ( a large B wave), then perhaps back down to retest lows or lower.
Similar to bear market of 2014. if you look at charts you will see a large B wave bounce in the middle of a downtrend.
Agreed as quite likely. I am also tending towards using 2014 as a template, especially as there is nothing else similar to compare. At this stage I am thinking : 6000 before 11000, and 11000 before 4000. There doesn't seem to be enough pessimism right now to fuel the rise to 11k, so a (failed) test of lows might just put in place the conditions to fuel that rise. |
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I wish we could make polls in posts. These old school threads would be more interesting for it.
Anyway, do you guys think we wouldn't see new ATH's for the rest of 2018. Personally, I think yes. Not that I'm loving it...
I think (I posted so at the time) that 2 bells rang at the high. The opening bells of CME and CBOE. I believe that will hold for some time, until the next bull phase. The current bear market needs time and prices moves of similar order to the previous waves. That would give , very approximately, targets of $2000 and 2 years. The Jamie Dimon dip could mark out a strong support (2400). Confirmation, for me, is the hate response I get in forums for saying it could go that low. Most ppl are still in denial of the bear trend, and the weak hands are not ready to be shaken out yet. Those targets might be wrong, but I think a low of $6000 and time of 3 months falls way short. Just my 2c. |
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I would respectfully suggest that Jamie Dimon has set the support and resistance for the next few years. $2400/$20,000.
In Sept 2017 he said BTC was a fraud, but also 'don't short, it may go to $20,000'. The low after his remarks was $2400.
That may seem like a wide range, but volatility will remain high.
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Am I alone in thinking that this is the true beginning of the demise of bitcoin?  I was castigated on here when I posted this 10 days ago. I still strongly believe we are watching crypto currencies die. I want a few apologies when it becomes apparent to all. What reason do you have for that ? Many projects will of course die. Crypto is most likely to survive. Even BTC at $2-3000 would simply be back to long term support, not dead. |
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But it's not only ethereum, everything is in bear mode and bitcoin reagained some dominance (right now at 44%). I don't know when we are going to go bull again, but I hope it's not that far
I wonder what would happen to Ethereum's price if Bitcoin will climb up to 70% dominance as it was a few months ago... Would be around $200 , all other things being equal. If BTC drops to long term trend at 2-3000, then 70% indicates ETH at around $80. But why would that dominance figure be so high ? |
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I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.
Thanks for sharing your opinion. One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame. That time frame is indeed a long way out in terms of possible events, but it is surprising how often chart analysis works out correct over the longer term. The short to medium term breaks down with unforseen events, yet the long term is a product of very large numbers of small chaotic events, and tends to exhibit its own structure regardless (or perhaps because of : classical chaos theory). |
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We are repeating the same patterns from 2013/2014/2015.
Bitcoin will drop back down to 2-3k and consolidate there for a while before resuming the next major bull run, probably fluctuating between 3 and 5 grand for a while.
Eth will return to $200ish, Bitcoin Cash will drop to 300-400
This is my prediction and I don't give a damn if you think I'm a nutcase.
I can only go off what I see happening now and so far the pattern is almost the same.
On what do you base those predictions ? Please give some supporting evidence or calculations. |
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I've been reading through this forums for the past few weeks and all I see is "this coin is dead" or "everything is a shit coin". Is there any alt coin with potential to invest in or is it only bitcoin? I don't mean like a few here and there, I mean over 100 coins.
of course I am also observing some of the many crypto coins that are decreasing in price and bitcoin also included, I just wait until the coin price starts to increase and I start doing the transaction. An increasing price relative to BTC, over last month or two (not just 1 day or 1 week), is a very positive sign. There are very few alts with that chart. ANI (Anime Coin, proveably rare digital art, large community) is one of them. The airdrop and the new chain is not until June. |
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--- Happy 20k Wall Observer pages --- Party  Btw, here is my high quality gif (cough)  Edit : hahaha I won, NO MANIPULATION ! please  Pssst : 400,000 post anyone? (nah i will let you win this time) Wait, you deserve the 20,000 page! +merits Yes, see if the deletes can get this post up there ! |
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Crypto is all about magic numbers.
20,000 is the target Jamie Dimon called when BTC was at 3,000. He almost nailed it.
So 20,000 is a magic number.
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Are we going to get another Bitcointalk whale screwing with the post count to hold back the 20,000th page as we did for the 10,000th? I wonder who that was and what their aim was.
Ever try to mass dump your own posts? It takes an eternity if it isn't your thread. Adam was behind the biggest shakeouts Goat made some script or something to clear his many thousands of posts when he made his exit from BTCT.org Otherwise, enjoy your day(s) deleting individual posts  It is going to be great fun watching the deletes and adjustments as posters try to get the first place on 20000 |
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Hmm, I must not be seeing what you're seeing, JJG.
Something important that you said is that one can refer to previous periods as general frames of how the market will behave in the immediate future, and I think a lot of people misunderstand that. I'm glad to see you explaining that in such a great way. The price discovery near $13,000 is not sufficiently done, and I think that it will take more than a year to reach back over the heights of last year.
I can't think of anything fun ether. I was hoping to come up with some fun "I told you so", but... yeah. I guess we just wait and see.
I think you are looking at different timescales yourself and JJG. On longer timescales bitcoin is still bullish as fuck, it came from literally zero a few years back and now thousands of dollars. On shorter timescales bitcoin is quite bearish though. Your post did come across a bit like FUD but your point is very valid that we are in a bearish wave. I think the argument is really about the trend, is the trend now bearish or is it still bullish (despite a huge motherfuckn correction). I posted a chart a few days back with both bullish and bearish channels, bullish on longer timescale , bearish on shorter timescale. Only time will tell which trend wins). My own view is that I think bitcoin has fallen too far for a quick return to euphoria. It pains me to say that because I am an original perma bull. I will probly HODL. In long term timescale, bitcoin is still bullish as fuck. Thats about right. Bear trends can last along time, the 4 major ones were between 5 months and 3 years, with a mean of around 2 years. That is why I think we have some way to go in this one, added to the fact that the majority believe the recovery is imminent, which is a good contrarian indicator. I don't claim to know precisely, but just present the various cases on their merits. You can always make an argument either way when looking at any charts or price trends, but this thread is helpful because it takes a large snapshot of sentiment. |
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The ghost of Mt.Gox continues to terrorize the inhabitants of the crypto-currency world. I hope prudence will prevail and the market will not go to the floor.
LOL, I just want this ongoing crypto dump cycle to stop. Feels sick to look at a portfolio value these days. You spoke my own mind. Quite literally, there's a "sick" feeling. I've never had this amount of value in my life before, so this is the first time I've watched so much value just disapear! Try to think more long term. This is simply a Crypto 'Bear Market'. It would be unusual for it to last less than a year. There is still a risk of substantial declines from here (more than 50% down), but in 2 years the whole picture will be different. If you are a long term holder, try not to look at the prices, find another distraction. If you want to trade, worry is the price you pay. |
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Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom!  "? Well, yes : and reasons : Price/ Time/ Volume/ Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive. This is advanced trading logic. By example in this case: IF volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough. IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows. IF price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low). So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much. Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V . Aha! Great insight! In other words, what counts is mainly the sum of volume * price... right? I'd never seen it from this angle, but it makes a lot of sense. One thing I like about this place is that there's always something to take away. At least for me. Yes, you are a logical thinker. Most people seem to think that there are pre determined price levels, whereas of course that is not true. You can always make estimates with if/but caveats, and I attempt to do that. My validation is in my successful trade over decades. I have made all my income and assets myself, entirely from trading. You are right in that this is a great thread, with only a minimal amount of trolls and ad hominem attackers. |
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Earlier, someone said something to the effect "The dump to 2k could be avoided if more dumb weak hands sell at 5k" - but I couldn't find the post and quote/credit the author. However, those words resonated with me - and it also fits your movie nicely. Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom! "? Well, yes : and reasons : Price/ Time/ Volume/ Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive. This is advanced trading logic. By example in this case: IF volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough. IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows. IF price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low). So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much. Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V . |
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