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541  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 25, 2023, 11:09:59 PM
So...twitterati would now be eXing or something like this?
Sounds a bit tech noir.
A lesson on how to lose a $5-20bil brand?
Weird.
542  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 25, 2023, 10:15:12 PM
JUST IN - $44 billion bank PacWest Bancorp $PACW has now crashed almost 30%

Another one bites the dust


https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1683926699942244355

No emergency, just a merger with BANC (Bank of California).
It's probably a rescue (in reality).
543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 25, 2023, 05:59:29 PM
@BritishHodl
New BTC All Time High BEFORE The Halving IS possible - especially now.

With the approval of a BTC ETF fast approaching with BlackRock's application.

You have to wonder what the demand increase will do to the price of BTC.

Well, Sean Farrell says that an ETF approval could lead to a $25bn demand in the first year, this is roughly $100m PER DAY.

The current equilibrium supply is $25m a day of Demand.

So once an ETF is approved, demand could exceed $125m per day for BTC..

This means the price would have to go up to meet the demand increase based on today's supply of BTC - and no other FOMO kicking in as price rises.

It projects that if the ETF is approved & trading before the halving, and the increase in demand is seen as projected ($25bn) the equilibrium price would have to be $140,000 per BTC BEFORE the halving supply shock and rush of capital post halving.

Can we get to $140,000 BTC BEFORE the halving subject to ETF approval?

I found this perspective by @SeanMFarrell & @fundstrat fascinating.

When ETF?
https://twitter.com/britishhodl/status/1683873088667000834

yeah, yeah...but don't underestimate the ability of stock market trading firms to suppress the price while they accumulate...in GLD such period lasted 9 mo...in bitcoin ETF, maybe one quarter or slightly longer. I still see a major stock market dip anywhere between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024. After that, bitcoin should absolutely fly.
544  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 25, 2023, 02:42:43 AM
😉
 #Bitcoin is unstoppable


Source.

It's would have been a good joke if it wasn't Jose Mourinho.
I used to think that he is an alien, though /s  Cheesy
545  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2023, 10:13:09 PM
Of note: $100K/year salary (used to be considered quite good) in US currently qualifies you to get a mortgage for a small (600-700 sqft) condo in Orange County, CA and New York, NY OR a run down house in Houston TX.

Interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6S_Up-JnXqo

Bitcoin to the rescue...
546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2023, 09:15:54 PM
Do you remember "Mr. Robot" show and the "E corp" from there?
Reality follows sci-fi in strange ways:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-says-twitter-change-logo-adieu-all-birds-2023-07-23/

Quote
Under Musk's tumultuous tenure since he bought Twitter in October, the company has changed its business name to X Corp, reflecting the billionaire's vision to create a "super app" like China's WeChat.

Get a whiff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ee-cHbCI0s

547  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2023, 08:59:11 PM
Any OG who are like @philipma1957 are incredibly advanced for boomers.
Apart from a few boomers posting here...only 4-6% of people after 64-65 are into bitcoin (I read it somewhere-no source).
I am fine with his diworsification, albeit, disagree that litecoin tech is superior in any sense. Litecoin is a derivative, a copycat..silver to gold, so to speak.

Changing the whole 401K into bitcoin would have been incredible if done 10-11 years ago. I converted only 10% or so of my fiat resources into btc a while back.
Would it been better if I allocated 30-50%..sure it would be, but as Michael Saylor said: "I could have bought bitcoin at $100 when I [MS] first noticed it, but I bought it at $10000, when I needed it". Everyone pretty much buys it when they "need" it, either physically or intellectually.

I also understand the @JJG point about buying (or not buying i-bonds). There were other, much simpler ways to get interest last year, like money market funds, which are liquid, while i-bonds are not.

I think @philipma1957 is diversified (from what I gathered). Yes, maybe buying i-bonds when btc was at the lows of around $16K was ill-advised, but everyone only know it by now, not back then. Besides, Phil is doing the "work" for many of us (including myself) who is not currently mining, but verbalize about bitcoin.

@philipma1957-what is the Th value/power of your mine, if calculated back to just yourself?
548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 22, 2023, 09:51:39 PM
A streak of three is enough, bud.
549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 22, 2023, 05:00:28 PM
I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.

tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.

I don’t think 4 year cycles will be a thing forever.
<Snip>The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say.

Quick prediction time -

2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000
2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000


While agreeing that it could happen, I am not sure that it would.
Here is my reasoning: last cycle was "abnormally" timid (only a 3.45X swing over the previous ATH).
Why? There could be two possibilities: one would be externalities, like China mining ban+ shenanigans of Celsius+Blockfi+FTX, plus exorbitant share printing by DCG; on the other hand, it could be just mechanics of the cycles, where each cycle causes less and less upward swing.

Therefore, next cycle would be an interesting test and @LFC numbers suggest resumption of the 'strong' swings: 250K would be re-acceleration or rather continuation of the swing strength and 180K just a small decline to 2.6X.

The current history of "swings" (from lows to highs) order goes like this:  First halving-from $2 cycle low to $1160 high(580X); Second-from $175 low to $20K high (114X); Third-from $3.2K low to $69K high (21.5X); Fourth-from supposed $15.7K low to ? high. Unfortunately, if the "swing" reduction factor from prior cycle to the next would be the same, the next number in the sequence is roughly 4-5X, which is ONLY 63K-78.5K, which is terrible. I, myself, don't believe that we would be "dealt" such cruel cards, but whatever 'acceleration' mechanism could be in play, it's still to reveal itself.

Personally, I think that the acceleration that makes @LFC numbers is possible, but would occur via realization of the potential in the realm of inscriptions.
Imagine this: each sat could have some informational packet attached. This opens up virtually unlimited potential in the future. Heck, every single Apple share could be inscribed on 157 bitcoins maximum (only 0.00074% of all bitcoin while Apple, by itself, corresponds to 7.4% of US total stock market cap). There is plenty of room in bitcoin for ALL property plus future asteroids, planets, etc, etc...and that is even without going to sub-sats. Think about this.

EDIT: Alternatively, see what the 'chatty' one says:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg62445814#msg62445814
550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 21, 2023, 07:12:58 PM

bitcoin has a pullout antenna? nice  Grin
551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 21, 2023, 07:09:48 PM
I am sure that even the biggest moron in the world won't dump his stash with all the good news around. Unless it's the US government, selling 8K Silk Road bitcoins for USD, which they can print indefinitely BTW.  Grin Grin Grin Not to mention that in very near future with a pro bitcoin president, FEDs will have to back up USD with some Bitcoin reserves, which they will buy at prices probably way above 100K. Very clever indeed. Even if it is a fake tweet (https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1682400915796422656), the concept remains true.

Yeah...in a similar fashion UK sold most of their gold in 2000 at the multi-decade lows (something below $250/oz).
Maybe it was a buyer-enticed transaction...haha.
552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 20, 2023, 03:37:30 AM
Real time story of a person about BTC

https://youtube.com/shorts/zkVctMUJhX0?feature=share3

 Lazlo ordered 2 pizzas with 10000 bitcoins.

History of Bitcoin

He ordered more than two...
I understand getting the first two, but do not understand why he kept doing this...I guess he loves pizza or in his mind bitcoin had an infinitesimally small probability of success.
However, apparently, he greatly contributed to GPU mining code. That should be big enough contribution for anyone.
553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 18, 2023, 06:16:43 PM
It's 50:50, but the way I see it, markets are about to peak and then correct either into the EOY or to March-April of next year.
If so, perhaps we are in a 2019-early 2020-like situation with 19-20K being a strong support.

Mind you, I am not predicting 20K, just look at the possibilities.
I am starting to hedge my equities positions somewhat, but not selling either stocks or bitcoin and not hedging bitcoin.

Keeping a bit of cash to buy on a potential dip, but, hey, if it goes straight up to 40K -I wouldn't be complaining.

EDIT With inflation declining Powell needs a good ol' "stimulus" such as a 10-15% sudden market decline to stop tightening and start decreasing the funds rate and, imho, stocks would "oblige".
Declining $ already hints that the era of rising rates is essentially over, apart from ceremonial formalities like a single(or double) little rise of 0.25 ea.
554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 16, 2023, 10:33:54 PM
The Global #Bitcoin  Distribution.

Source

In the future, yes, but currently completely misleading.
It gives the number for the FULL bitcoinization (a hypothetical of what would have happened if ALL current wealth was in bitcoin).
Currently, top 1% total wealth and top 1% bitcoiners are mostly different people.
However, it still tells you that if all wealth would transfer to bitcoin, you would need to have only 0.15 btc to be in the top 1% of the planet wealth-wise.
As Satoshi said: "It might make sense just to get some #bitcoin in case it catches on."  Grin
555  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2023, 04:26:24 PM
BREAKING News 🚨

CHINA MIGHT LEGALISE CRYPTO & #BITCOIN  BUSINESSES SOON : EXPERTS

and who are these experts?

I will pay those experts for the news, bring them.

Maybe @proudhon got in touch with his Chinese sources again and they gave him a well-kept secret Roll Eyes
He seems inactive for a few months. His post's history is not very charming. He might be an agent of CSW.



haha...he had the biggest (after Loaded) bitcoin bag around here (in the past, nobody knows if it is still so currently)...just has a strange sense of humor and stays "in the character".
556  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2023, 04:22:37 PM

I know that you just quoting this, but the "twitter" guy has wrong numbers: $8200 (at the halving) from approx $3200 is not 360%, but 156% up (which is the same as 2.56X).
BTW, similar "up" from our presumable low in 2022 at $15782 would be $40441 at the halving....very "doable", indeed.
EDIT: maybe the guy meant the top of the range, but it is a strange way to put it.
557  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2023, 04:16:05 PM
BREAKING News 🚨

CHINA MIGHT LEGALISE CRYPTO & #BITCOIN  BUSINESSES SOON : EXPERTS


Source.

Moon is again...



Oh, China again goes through the 'love me, love me not' cycle?
Not the first one...allow, then ban, then again allow, then ban ad infinitum.
558  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2023, 03:08:16 PM
~snip~
The day isn't far when we will be seeing Bitcoin price above $40k or even above $50k, and those who are holding their Bitcoin will finally is rewarded for their patience. I love Bitcoin because it doesn't pumps like other shit-coins, and that's why it's far more safer than those shitty-coins.

Finally rewarded? I've been rewarded every day since 2014 when I got my first satoshi Wink

Right...plus, instead of thinking of what bitcoin can do for you, think of what you can do for bitcoin.
559  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2023, 01:48:47 AM
hey, future "wealthy elite"...check this out:
https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/14v7ui0/lifestyle_changes_at_various_net_worths/

TL;DR A discussion of what different levels of income and net worth mean with details and interesting secondary links.
560  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 13, 2023, 11:43:29 PM
We're back above $30k.

We've been above $30K for a month now.

It's starting to look like we may actually be above $31k to stay.

Regardless, we got a new AYH today.

Go Bitcoin go.

Ya'll ignore the fact of what caused this rally...lots of s--tcoins are up due to some case judgement, unfortunately, but i take the price rise even if it caused by something generally negative.
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