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561  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 13, 2023, 11:12:06 PM
Funny...apparently (found on drudge) there is a law in Italy that you can grope someone for less than 10 seconds and not get arrested/sued.
I don't know about 10 sec, though, seems a bit long, but maybe at least some inadvertent touch should not result in recriminations.
Like, a boy/girl suddenly kissing a girl/boy in the kindergarten without the full blown investigation of the fact.
Age should be a factor too, probably.

In US all man are being super careful about any touch now, which, apparently, results in much less true social activity among youngsters (hanging out on social networks such as face/insta/snapchat  etc does not count).

I recall my life as a kid and then a teenager (decades and decades ago)...there was a lot of funny games where you had to move a lot, soccer, volleyball, lots of social activity, including periodic brawling and even fistfights, etc. It was a lot of fun! Now, I look at my kids...some fun, but not a whole lot. Lots of life moved from reality to the phone, etc.
562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 13, 2023, 04:18:35 PM
if someone is interested, today's lawsuit verdict is not as simple as win-lose. Linky is from reddit.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/bk1n1qn1tgscrcrrfldr8/SEC-v.-Ripple-Ruling-on-Motions-for-Summary-Judgment.pdf?dl=0&rlkey=cjyfdw5rl58diqxyi3qfgix7s

It's mixed, and, btw, if VB token ever did institutional sales (most likely it did not), it could be also in trouble as court said that institutional, but not programmatic and secondary sales, are securities.
563  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 13, 2023, 03:55:15 PM
Celsius "Machine"...arrested today.
-> jump in btc and COIN...or just a coincidence, probably.
EDIT: most likely it is the SEC lawsuit summary judgement.
564  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 12, 2023, 04:08:47 PM
Bitcoin is still plateauing, but a strange pop in Silver (metal) and gold miners (much more than gold): SLV and GDX are are up 4 and 5% respectively today.
I am not a bug, but maybe it points to some developments behind the scenes.
565  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 12, 2023, 12:07:02 AM
OT: If someone is interested in personal longevity "enhancement":

Nothing there yet, but there are two majors (Altos labs and Calico) and several more specialized companies worth noting:

https://longevity.technology/news/five-longevity-companies-to-watch-in-2023-and-altos/

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/a-3bn-bet-on-finding-the-fountain-of-youth/21807244

https://www.wsj.com/articles/longevity-clinics-aging-living-longer-2b98e773

Altos raised 3bil just to start, so it is, potentially, a future "monster", but they are still at the research phase.

Imho, the best shot at longevity treatment right now is, paradoxically or not, some anti-diabetics/weight loss medications: ozempic/wegovy (and similar, like mounjaro) and metformin. Among the companies above, there are some that could give you better diagnostics, but their benefits are less clear.

This is pertinent unless you don't care about personal longevity and work mostly on transferring your sats to the future generation(s).

A very interesting thought to me is that in order to live (almost) forever, your natural life span doesn't need to reach until the holey grail of longevity is found.  You just have to live long enough until they come up with something that extends your life let's say 25 years.  And within these 25 years they may find something that gives you another 30 ...and so on.

That means there might already be people on the planet today that will live (almost) indefinitely...




btw Nitter works again

yeah, that's what Aubrey de Grey proposed too.
566  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 11, 2023, 04:21:02 PM
OT: If someone is interested in personal longevity "enhancement":

Nothing there yet, but there are two majors (Altos labs and Calico) and several more specialized companies worth noting:

https://longevity.technology/news/five-longevity-companies-to-watch-in-2023-and-altos/

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/a-3bn-bet-on-finding-the-fountain-of-youth/21807244

https://www.wsj.com/articles/longevity-clinics-aging-living-longer-2b98e773

Altos raised 3bil just to start, so it is, potentially, a future "monster", but they are still at the research phase.

Imho, the best shot at longevity treatment right now is, paradoxically or not, some anti-diabetics/weight loss medications: ozempic/wegovy (and similar, like mounjaro) and metformin. Among the companies above, there are some that could give you better diagnostics, but their benefits are less clear.

This is pertinent unless you don't care about personal longevity and work mostly on transferring your sats to the future generation(s).
567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 11, 2023, 02:12:56 AM
You like hard science you say?

Scope this out. Smiley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEXefdbQDjw

interesting, but they are not doing anything, really, being just cells on a mesh substrate.
here is something more interesting...also not dangerous (at least not yet): xenobots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wL64jqYn4CE

Before we would have any danger from those little clamps, imho, we would be in a real one from mechanical one's.
Totally unrelated (because it was not organic), but it made me think about Black mirror's "cookie".

Interesting but I'm much more interested in neural networks that can be used for navigation and exploration.

OT: Gotcha...to me, it would be easier to build those using silicon than cells, but I could be totally wrong.
We still don't know what consciousness is, amazingly, with some wild theories proposed by few scientists, like R. Penrose (something about quantum coherence/decoherence in brain cells microtubules).

https://nautil.us/roger-penrose-on-why-consciousness-does-not-compute-236591/

Quote
Minsky’s claims compelled Penrose to write The Emperor’s New Mind, arguing that human thinking will never be emulated by a machine. The book had the feel of an extended thought experiment on the non-algorithmic nature of consciousness and why it can only be understood in relation to Gödel’s theorem and quantum physics.

...but here we are, just 6 years later, and at least some aspects of human thinking were already emulated by a machine, it seems.
The question remains only on how deep this emulation goes.

...back to bitcoin (which is flat)...missing Chart Buddy.
568  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 11, 2023, 01:56:36 AM
You like hard science you say?

Scope this out. Smiley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEXefdbQDjw

interesting, but they are not doing anything, really, being just cells on a mesh substrate.
here is something more interesting...also not dangerous (at least not yet): xenobots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wL64jqYn4CE

Before we would have any danger from those little clamps, imho, we would be in a real one from mechanical one's.
Totally unrelated (because it was not organic), but it made me think about Black mirror's "cookie".
569  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 11, 2023, 12:45:29 AM
Would you go on a date with Ivanka Trump if she paid you 1 #Bitcoin ?
The only catch is you have to wear a MAGA hat and she will call you “Daddy” for the entirety of the date.  Grin
Source


I would go on a date with her or her father or biden or his wife or kamela for 1 btc.

It is just a date.

you are clearly obfuscating the point  Wink
570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 11, 2023, 12:39:40 AM
Not as boring as any Star Wars movie.

well when i saw the original star wars in the theater back in the 70s it was pretty rockin. the rest of the series, along with that reissue they did of the original with more effects did stink though.

I also saw the original in the theater when it first came out. I thought it was childish.

I appreciate good realistic science fiction but it reminded me more of a fairy tale, all action and drama but not much science.

star wars is fantasy, not science fiction. just meant to be fun escapism. so i dont hold it to my regular science fiction standards.

i like "hard" science fiction that is internally consistent. star wars just made stuff up as they went.

babylon 5 was a decent example of "hard" science fiction tv that actually paid attention to science..

yes, I like "hard" sci-fi more, but to me the second star wars movie (The Empire strikes back) was pretty good when i first saw it a few decades back.
About "hard" scifi-I enjoyed reading the "Three body problem" and two subsequent parts of the trilogy.
Very much looking forward to the Netflix series in January, albeit knowing that people can make something incomprehensible with it (as Apple did with the "Foundation").
We shall see.
571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 10, 2023, 07:32:13 PM


One of a kind idea in 2000
Brilliant idea in 2013
Great idea in October 2022
Maybe a good idea in July 2023
572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2023, 06:45:26 PM
Hey, future "wealthy elite"...perhaps the 'dark forest' mode is in order. js
consider the future, etc, etc

and here is the Sunday #haiku (sorry if it is a bit gloomy):

bots are roaming free
on this board without regrets;
be ready for it



573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 08, 2023, 09:07:44 PM
Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902
It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.

Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?

Real estate fireworks in September or so?  Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?  

I'm just throwing out random ideas.  I don't really claim to know much of anything.

See we can agree on a few things. Grin

Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.

But if we do 25 points in July and  25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.

Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .

One thing I've learned after a few decades of real estate investing is that the housing market moves extremely slow.  It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.  We all see rates are too high and houses are unaffordable.  We all see the middle class being squeezed with inflation.  We're all aware that houses shot up in price mainly because banks were buying them like crazy in anticipation of high inflation.  The only thing keeping people in their houses right now is that inflation coupled with investment has buoyed housing prices.  I personally think without high inflation keeping prices high, we would be seeing a 2008 style crash.  As it is, we'll likely see a correction but stubborn inflation will limit it, and if the fed keeps rates high and jobs numbers start to turn south, things could get bad and remain that way for a couple years.

Yeah..all things considered, I would be surprised if we did not re-visit the pre-March 2020 prices, but it could take 5-7 years.
Some people are saying "wait until mortgage interest rate goes back to 5%", suggesting that it would inflate the price even more, but who would be able to afford it?
574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2023, 11:15:13 PM
Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902

It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

In the UK these long term deals never existed. Most people with mortgages are on 2 year deals, some 5 years, and others on 10 years tops.
After that (if you don't or can't renew for another deal) your mortgage rate defaults to an extremely shitty around 3% on top of the Bank of England base rate, which is now 5% so in effect you could possibly pay 8% or higher.

So house prices will have to plummet pretty badly here most likely by the time all these people are on 5-6% (or worse) deals. But this plummet is usually very gradually and doesn't happen quickly. I've seen most people selling trying to hold firm but it just means the properties don't sell at all.

What is baffling here is that most bought homes are actually owned outright.

But that doesn't help countless struggling mortgage payers or renters who are royally screwed over after the terrible financial decisions over the last several years: endless money printing & 2% inflation target to pretend economy is doing better than it is / reaction to Covid / net zero energy bollocks / proxy war in Ukraine / people trafficking

Maybe highlighted simply means that, at least in London, many houses are being bought essentially by the rest of the world (Middle east oil money, Wall Street financiers getting something close to the City, etc, etc).
575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2023, 11:02:05 PM
Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902

Bitcoin is the ONLY thing that can protect your buying power in a long run (unless you want to lug bricks of yellow metal and even then only until asteroid mining is in full swing) and it is getting clearer to more and more people (the only exceptions are tech industry insiders).

You don't really believe that gold is any kind of meaningful competitor to bitcoin, even if we were to try to take away the difficulties in it's physicality?   And I am not sure what you mean by any kind of a supposed advantage happening with "tech industry" insiders?  Are you saying that there are some tech stocks that are particularly UP or have upside potential?   You are not suggesting that Tech industry insiders are any more enlightened about bitcoin than average normies?.. perhaps there is some kind of industry that is out performing inflation, and you are suggesting that tech industry insiders are profiting from that kind of outperformance?

Sure, your overall point about where to put your value? apart from bitcoin? and there may be some industries, I suppose, and now that I am thinking about it.. you are suggesting that the "tech industry insiders" are investing into AI?  and likely profiting from that and outperforming other aspects of the overall market, including outperforming our current (and recent) cost of living increase levels?

yea, tech industry insiders knew about a connection between AI and GPU, hence Nvidia, earlier than regular folks (NVDA is 100X in the last 10 years, roughly similar to bitcoin).
I, personally, thought that AMD and NVDA would crash and burn when mining through GPUs ceased to be a factor, but they thrived on AI usage instead (people were building up their GPU farms). I don't think it was feasible for non-insider to know this, albeit maybe it is just my fallacy as an investor that I did not figure that out.
Albeit, every 'era' produces a few companies where you can get 100-1000X appreciation in a decade or two.
Sometimes people like Peter Lynch say: see what you like and invest in it. It worked for me in some companies, but absolutely did not work with Tesla.
I was on the waiting list for Model 3 (it turned out to be completely meaningless since there was no priority), but then went to a showroom and absolutely f-g hated Model 3 (liked model S, but decided to go with a gasoline car after all). As a result, I did not invest in Tesla at that time despite planning to do so beforehand. The rest is history.

Gold is not for me, even without asteroid mining...I don't even like it's "shining" qualities.

TL;DR investment is difficult and your personal choices/values could play a "trick" on you.
576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2023, 10:49:12 PM
With #Bitcoin, it's possible to take an ownership stake in the entire Internet of Value. 
This was never possible with the Internet of Information.
This is one of the tricky paradigm shifts new investors must wrap their heads around to understand Bitcoin's full magnitude.
source


Yes, that's why Silicon valley almost completely missed out on bitcoin (with some exceptions).
They were thinking that bitcoin is like Myspace, to be replaced with a better version later.
577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2023, 09:34:07 PM
Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902

It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.
578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2023, 09:26:38 PM
Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902

Bitcoin is the ONLY thing that can protect your buying power in a long run (unless you want to lug bricks of yellow metal and even then only until asteroid mining is in full swing) and it is getting clearer to more and more people (the only exceptions are tech industry insiders).
579  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2023, 02:17:15 AM
Every Spot ETF in USA is naming Coinbase their custodian, but they only have 446k #bitcoin . This will be fun
Source


all this story is very curious.
what is behind ?

imho, not very important...they are the custodian for FUTURE purchases (once the ETFs are approved). Apart from the initial smaller purchases to kick-start the funds, everything else depends on the briskness of ETF trading. More ETF "units" bought would mean more bitcoin bought and vice versa. Current levels are not that important.

It means maybe one thing: bitcoin on Coinbase would likely to move to a permanent "premium". I am sure some arbs would 'love' it. That's how FTX started, actually (arbing between several exchanges).
580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2023, 02:11:53 AM
Bitcoin is quite stable, but weird moves are happening in the fiat markets.
I am observing periodic large purchases and sells in VIX options.
Todays:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-trader-bets-vix-index-164646139.html

Guy/entity buys $4.5-4.6mil on Option 1, sells $4 mil in Option 2, net spend $0.5-0,6 mil. Paradoxically, he buys HIGHER expiration and sells LOWER.
I can only think that they expect it to pop to about where he sold, but because of the sudden move he expects his HIGHER expiration to move more than you would expect based on volatility. A chess move or just a gambler, lol.

TL;DR I think that Wall Street starts to expect volatility between now and maybe October. The signal would probably be the next two FED meetings.
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