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2521  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Have one in full or just part? on: October 16, 2023, 02:07:33 PM
My 1 TB NTFS formatted external SSD used exclusively to hold full blockchains from both mainnet and testnet has only ~ 367 GB left to be full , so probably in half of year I will think about acquiring new SSD drive with capacity of 2 TB.
No rush: you have about 3 years left before it's full.

yeah unless we go with a lot of ordinals  but right now good ssd's are cheap.


https://www.newegg.com/samsung-t7-shield-2tb/p/N82E16820147838

I was liking external Samsung's for my Mac mini's but apple went and fucked up the Mac mini's with the m1 and m2 chips.

My refurbed Asus linux laptop is happy with the 2tb crucial I got for only 85 bucks with tax.

It will last a while before it is filled.
2522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 16, 2023, 01:51:44 PM

Its pretty fun, I recommend trying it out if you haven't yet. Its part of the Microsoft Edge browser (the only thing I use that browser for).


I use edge for the search rewards, earned around $30 until now in 5months.

These are my two:




quote please..

looks like second one did not take.
2523  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: [List] VanityGen Wallet Generation - threads, how to & links on: October 16, 2023, 01:42:01 PM
And for the OCD among us, or at least those who have the great idea that I will get organized *soon* it allows us to categorize some things.
i.e. bc1qCarStuff...... or bc1qH0tSauce.... or bc1qC0llect and so on.

So this way looking back later I would be able to figure out what was what without searching though a bunch of random addresses.
Have not really been doing it, but there was that plan....
Why not use labels in your wallet for this? By using vanity addresses as labels, you're basically making your labels public. It's bad for privacy.

For example, let's say that your regular address is 1LoyceVg9r*******
You made me curious how many of the 1,219,157,164 used Bitcoin addresses contain "LoyceV" (case insensitive):
Code:
1Dd7BCtAQLEsKAn8LoYceVnChJugppMXbM
3DzkCVBN3VLoYCEVbhKxAsc7B2qg9pNW3h
1Ex3dKEQ62P1LoYcEVPs8ra5uWcMvj8XPC
179V56LoYCevph6CUwUNvP4huhYu9TiiVy
3LoYCEVV9PLS99113RXpayzpXJKdFiDTq9
1HBXxakN6qFL9CKVnrHLoyCeVguetikHsa
1LoyceVSbrv3CP3jT12qVYrNSbrqz4FL5q
3KtVhoLoYCEvvK4NjnfnAdvJk6NmPXau77
1J2VyNLLn2BLoyCevFPkUgcnJcGXwqWmWM
36X9KA5NueLSsPVjq3nLoyCEVbNdWcfMEc
1H28sq4JkXDp2UD3ULoyCeVJa4rnKcVrp2
3MPh3rUeD8xkZLcvwm7YtMKTdY5LoyCEvj
3LoyceVUWE9iUFKJT6ncGHgBGGXCwkGBeB
1DegqmsN9BXTyU7RMWysZX9ZqLoYcEVNtg
3K5K4gm4QmrBeBgTxqmYJLoYCEvsiPPis5

The list is a lot longer with "DaveF" (1699 entries) Cheesy

could you research   1957philipma any case or spot.

I wanted to do a 1957philipma but it would have been a lot of spots.

I did do my wife's account

My alt is judypug1956 vanity addy: 1956jUdYPFwiBSzt9AECdWj3KE4WV7taiM 

this was 9 spots and was slow on a thread ripper.
2524  Economy / Economics / Re: In times of war, Gold rises. What about Bitcoin? on: October 16, 2023, 12:19:16 PM
Yeah BTC will be rising soon. Well past 30k this month and around 40k by Jan 1.

Much more likely to do that than another method.

My reasoning is the difficulty has risen again this time by 6.47% which is more than 500 million in gear

added on.  Gold is stable for now but you don't know about its future availability.

I.e. are asteroid filled with gold real and mineable:


https://theprint.in/opinion/giant-asteroid-has-gold-worth-700-quintillion-but-it-wont-make-us-richer/260482/

if this is true gold will drop well under 500 usd an oz.

and if it is true silver looks more solid.
2525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 16, 2023, 04:43:30 AM
Approximating bitcoin price 'needed' for miners to be profitable, assuming stable electricity prices:

Currently, miners are said to have full breakeven at 23.4K/btc (including equipment amortization, 21.3K without equipment amortization).
s19 was introduced 3 years ago.
S21 is introduced now, about 3 years later.
During 2020-2023 difficulty increased about 2.86X or 42% a year (186% total).
Productivity in new miner increased from 29.5 to 17.5 J/T or 59% reducing $$ for profitability to 12.64K (with no amortization), but you need to add $7K on bitcoin miner cost amortization.
Currently, S21 will make 0.216btc/year with Zero electricity cost and 0.16 btc/year with 5c electricity, so NO more than 0.1 BTC/year after halving (before subtracting costs)
Assume the miner will make 0.216btcX(5mo/12) before halving (with no network growth)=0.09 btc (before costs).
After halving, the initial electrical cost of operation would be at least 25.2K/btc produced and more in reality, depending on the rise in difficulty.
Let's assume 25.2K/btc initial electricity cost and project 42% a year difficulty growth as it was in 2020-2023.
In three years (by 2026) the break even mining cost would be at least 72K/btc.
You would also need to profit at least $7K to amortize your miner, which is currently 0.257BTC, but could be less later.
However, after halving you would only make 0.08 btc/year (start at 0.1 btc, end at 0.06btc before subtracting costs), then 0.0464 btc year two, then 0.0366 btc year three.
Therefore, assuming a fixed electricity of 5c, you would spend 1533 in years 1, 2 and 3 each, plus 7k on miner.
Total outlay about 12k (as you also pay for miner shipment)

So, you will probably produce about 0.09btc (before halving), then 0.08 btc (y1), then 0.0464 btc (y2), then 0.0366 btc (y3).
Total: 0.163 btc with 639+1533X3=$5238 in electricity cost and $7K in miner cost. Total cost: $12238
Therefore, to breakeven (or make minimal money in $$), your average bitcoin selling price should be no less than $75100/btc during the next 3 year and 5 mo.
Typically, at some point in the cycle miners become VERY profitable, so at least a double of 75K is likely to be attained at some point in the next 3 years and 5 mo.

TL;DR My approximation shows a minimum average price of 75K for miners' bitcoin sell after buying a S21 to achieve a breakeven in the next 3 years and 5 mo (assuming no repairs and a fixed electricity cost at 5c).

well when you buy some sellers take cash not btc.
some seller take a cc .

with clever cc management and buying gear at best times gear can be lower cost at my scale.

Ie 100,000 k a year in gear no interest cc’s and pay back discounts are achievable.

So if I buy four units two s19 xps and two s19s for 7400 right now and get 900 cc rebate with 12 months to pay. my cost is 6500 after rebate.

6500 gets me 460th which earns me 14 (power cost is included) a day at price of 27k so in next 160 days they earn me 2240 if price freezes.  earnings drop to 7 a day if price and diff freezes so 200 days later.

I earn 1400 more. I would get back 3640 in a year with frozen price and frozen diff.

I have a solid repair guy. so I likely will pay off in 2.5 years with frozen price and diff.

reality is frozen price could happen but if it does the diff will tank like made as bigger miners cant float payoffs like I can.

but scaling for me is limited. maybe 250 kwatts grows to 400 kwatts of gear.
2526  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Operate Bitcoin Core on a laptop with restricted storage capacity on: October 16, 2023, 04:00:01 AM
ebay usa based has thousands of good laptops or pcs.  lots of good sellers.

newegg has a ton of good used pcs and laptops.

https://www.newegg.com/p/1VK-0001-69VD3?Item=9SIADT2JBS4330

quick search. 

first find the windows 11 key write it down

then-pull the windows ssd it is too small.

put in a 1tb ssd. install a fresh windows 11.

activate windows 11 with the code you copied.

under $ 250 cost if you attach it to your tv for a monitor.

plus you have a spare 512gb ssd.

load your core 25 to it.
2527  Other / Meta / Re: It is bad to use AI to help my post quality improve? on: October 16, 2023, 01:15:38 AM
Remember the old good days when people who wanted to learn a language was supposed to study and practice it, to go along trial and error?
That was my case, though.

At first glance, I would say that using AI to "improve" your English is not actually doing any good to your skills, because you won't learn as much as you would if you made mistakes and then corrected them. On the other hand, I am not anyone studied in language acquisition to tell people how they are supposed to learn a language. I am not sure on the status (when comes to the rules) of using AI that way. At minimum, I (and others) would appreciate if you included a short footnote in the post you made using AI, so people around here won't feel deceived or won't incorrectly think you are a spammer.

Just my two sats, by the way. I hope your English only improves with time.  Wink

My Spanish and my German are brutal. My English is okay. I tend to type too fast and not correct my mistakes. With google translate and AI I sometime will write in the German section.

But I am very clear that I am doing that.
2528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 16, 2023, 12:54:22 AM
Buddy string a few  27ks and by monday I expect many 28s followed by a 29 around 6pm 🕕 EST.

and buddy I know you will pass me you are going to add over 1500 posts by Jan 1.

At best I will do about 1000.  Maybe I will let you pass me on my birthday 🎂.
2529  Other / Meta / Re: It is bad to use AI to help my post quality improve? on: October 16, 2023, 12:51:56 AM
I do not mind a non native speaking person using english.

I also would not mind he or she doing the post in their own words and in AI words.

Like so
1) your own attempt
2) AI correcting your attempt.

Any other way of using AI is pretty much a pointless method of deception.

Both showing both ways is fine by me.
2530  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: New control board for s17pro not working. on: October 16, 2023, 12:44:00 AM
down load angry ip or advanced ip

search all your ips

typically your range may be

192.168.1.1-255

or

192.168.0.1-255

or

192.168.2.1-255


you will get a list of every piece of gear you are running

just search each one by one

you should find the s17 that way.
2531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is doubling your investment more probable than we think? on: October 16, 2023, 12:36:57 AM
With halving less than a year from now, the majority of us are speculating a major increase in price and possibly the start of another bull market after 4 years. Some are expecting to surpass the previous ATH of almost $70,000 and possibly reach $100,000. Although this scenario sounds great and all, I'm not quite confident that it'll happen in the upcoming year or so. The current economic condition in the world isn't too promising and, in my opinion, will set back investments in general, including bonds and the stock market. I hope I'm proven wrong, though.

However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

I expect 40-50k pre ½ ing and about 121k for full bull run number.

I mine I attack differently then a hodl guy or a trader guy.

If you are in at a 30k or under price point putting in some more cash should work for you. But reality we could all wake up dead in the morning as the core of the earth could blowup with little or no warning.  So why worry.
2532  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 15, 2023, 10:53:40 PM
we are smoking fucking hot.

Quote
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   812382  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.3406%  (1951 / 1817.58 expected, 133.42 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Next Difficulty:   between 61533048110252 and 61537753139285
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.3472% and +7.3554%
Previous Retarget:   October 3, 2023 at 3:56 AM  (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 4:57 AM  (in 0d 10h 5m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 4:58 AM  (in 0d 10h 6m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 1m 20s and 13d 1h 2m 46s


Really close to a day ahead of the base.

a New ath  for hashrate.

Now as I recall we were at 35th diff when we hit 69k

so if we are at a diff of 61th we could climb to 120k if we ever bull run.




I will set up a new game  for next jump. I altered the spread from 0.50% to 0.33%


picks will start at block 700 and end at block 1000

01)  -3.43 to -3.11%
02)  -3.10 to -2.88%
03)  -2.87 to -2.55%
04)  -2.54 to -2.22%
05)  -2.21 to -1.99%
06)  -1.98 to -1.66%
07)  -1.65 to -1.33%
08)  -1.32 to -1.00%
09)  -0.99 to -0.67%
10)  -0.66 to -0.34%
11)  -0.33 to -0.01%  I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer
12)   0.00 to +0.32%
13) +0.33 to +0.65%
14) +0.66 to +0.98%
15) +0.99 to +1.31%
16) +1.32 to +1.64%
17) +1.65 to +1.97%
18) +1.98 to +2.30%
19) +2.31 to +2.63%
20) +2.64 to +2.96%
21) +2.97 to +3.29%
22) +3.30 to +3.62%
23) +3.63 to +3.95%
24) +3.96 to +4.28%
25) +4.29 to +4.61%
26) +4.62 to +4.94%
27) +4.95 to +5.27%
28) +5.28 to +5.60%
29) +5.61 to +5.93%
30) +5.94 to +6.26%
31) +6.27 to +6.59%
32) +6.60 to +6.92%


Do Not Pick yet game has not started!

No newbies at least 90 days on the website and 1 merit.

rules will be mostly the same as last run but I made a higher range 0.33% not 0.50%

winner will be determined by me using the newhedge websites info.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

I will round to 2 digits if there is a tie I will likely give 2 prizes

prize is 0.001 btc.   please note if we moon past 100,000 usd a coin prize is 100 usd in btc at most.

my game if you play it you agree I make any and all decisions to fix any shit I missed.


DO not pick yet!!  there is about 5  days to begin picking.

I may alter the ranges if weird shit happens so wait to pick.

Good luck to all.





Quote
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block:   812452  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   146.2163%  (5 / 3.42 expected, 1.58 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 61122054039524 and 87404992922574
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1497% and +43.2148%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)

Next Retarget (earliest):   October 25, 2023 at 9:21 PM  (in 9d 13h 13m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 30, 2023 at 7:01 AM  (in 13d 22h 54m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 9d 13h 47m 47s and 13d 23h 28m 25s

last jump happened 35 minutes ago.   it would round to +6.47% which would mean :

slot 31) +6.27 to +6.59% would be the winner. as +6.47 is included in that range.


Picks will start in 4-5 days or so.
2533  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Robert Kennedy Jr. Promises to End White House War on Bitcoin on: October 15, 2023, 10:50:32 PM
I am not a U.S citizen so I am not going support or oppose him on his candidacy because either way I couldn't vote.

But I think it's the same in every country, that we shouldn't believe 100% of any promise by politician, especially one that don't have any concrete plan on how make that promise real. My advice for any Bitcoin enthusiast who are going to vote for president anywhere in the world, I myself will vote next year for president of my country, rather than just supporting candidates who are saying that they support Crypto and Bitcoin, I would rather vote for candidate that has clear and visionary plan for more generic purposes, if that includes cryptocurrency or Bitcoin, than that's good, but if it's not I wouldn't mind. I wouldn't just vote for candidate who are saying they will support cryptocurrency, but when I ask them about affordable housing, affordable food, and accessible education they don't have any vision or realistic plan on it.

in a twist of taylor swift hit song 🎶 “ Hater’s gonna hate “

turns into “pollies gonna pollie”

I like that he is 69 vs 80 or 81.

At 66 I can tell you most pollie’s are shot by 80 we need them to leave not run again and again.

Will he really help with btc and other coins like LTC and Doge.

I don’t know.
2534  Other / Off-topic / Re: Why Ubuntu? on: October 15, 2023, 10:38:33 PM
Because it's free and more secure than Windblowz.

yeah linux is more stable

I used it to mine with gpus and usb sticks in 2014-2016 . ran for more than 7 straight months no reboots or crashes. then had a half hour blackout , booted it and right back up again.

Mint is very good with 8gb ram and the big ssd.

I have firefox but will load another browser soon.

2535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 15, 2023, 10:32:47 PM
R.i.p.

Suzzanne Somers

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/threes-company-actress-suzanne-somers-201117003.html

She is the only celebrity I ever had a dialogue with on facebook.

She was a really nice person to talk to.

The ThighMaster lady?
I remember seeing those commercials something like 30 years ago.
RIP

You are not old enough to remember  “threes company” Suzanne was quite a looker back in the 70’s.

Although ‘wonder woman’  from the 70’s tv show was really really really hot. Lynda Carter iirc
2536  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CZ's view on Halving on: October 15, 2023, 10:18:48 PM
I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.



I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.



He left out that we had a miner relief rally in 2015-2016 pre ½ ing we got over 700 usd which was close to a 70% of all time high in 2013. If we do that this time you could get between 40-50k pre ½ ing.

I will continue to argue that is a norm that will-be established again this ½ ing.
2537  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Are dices for generating seed words fair? on: October 15, 2023, 09:39:52 PM
but then we get into other questions such as "what is an acceptable level of bias in an experiment where you perform it some number of times, be that 1000, or more?"
When considering generating private keys for bitcoin, then my answer is zero. I don't see why you would settle for anything less. This is why I advocate for using coin flips with von Neumann's algorithm, since by doing this you can be certain you have eliminated any bias in your coin, as well as not introduced any new bias by performing randomness extraction or other processes you don't fully understand on your data.
By coincidence, I stumbled upon an article about bias in coin tosses. It reminded me about this topic, hence the 10 month bump.

TL;DR: if you start a coin toll with heads up, there's a 50.8% chance you'll end up with heads.

"According to the Diaconis model, precession causes the coin to spend more time in the air with the initial side facing up," a new team writes in a pre-print paper that has not yet been peer-reviewed. "Consequently, the coin has a higher chance of landing on the same side as it started (i.e., ‘same-side bias’)."

Diaconis found, from a smaller ideal number of coin tosses recorded and analyzed, that coins land on the same side they were tossed from around 51 percent of the time. The new team recruited 48 people to flip 350,757 coins from 46 different currencies, finding that overall, there was a 50.8 percent chance of the coin showing up the same side it was tossed from.

Delving into the data further, they found that coin tosses are highly variable between people, with some showing a strong same-side bias and others having none at all – coin tosses may come down (ever so slightly) to the tosser.
Further reading: Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips.

There are older articles also claiming a similar (51/49) distribution, but as far as I've found the recent research had the largest sample size.

So if you have a 51 to 49 percent bias on all your picks it still to the 24th power.

so effectively the bias mean a 24 word seed is more like a 22 word seed or am I wrong
2538  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: People running older versions of Core - Why? on: October 15, 2023, 09:36:38 PM
I have more than one trezor. I do not like to update them. As it is work.

I fear killing off the trezor and losing coins.

So I move all the coins out of one trezor in to another trezor.

I fully update the coins trezor.

I move a small amount of coins back from the not updated trezor and check all took and is working on the updated trezor.

I then fully move the coins back to the up dated trezor. making the backup trezor empty I then update it.

So with three trezors this is a lot of work.

my bitcoin core I have two clones of it. but I empty the main one into an updated trezor then up date it.

I then update the clones.

so after my clones work I then move the coins back with the trezor to the bitcoin core.

so basically i dont want to do all that work.
2539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 15, 2023, 09:14:00 PM
R.i.p.

Suzzanne Somers

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/threes-company-actress-suzanne-somers-201117003.html

She is the only celebrity I ever had a dialogue with on facebook.

She was a really nice person to talk to.
2540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 15, 2023, 07:38:34 PM
don't know what to make of it.. but in case someone is interested:

US officials say they're worried a Chinese-owned bitcoin mine in Wyoming will pose a national security threat, NYT reports
https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-chinese-owned-bitcoin-operation-cheyenne-wyoming-microsoft-2023-10

Well this could be good news for other miners. The article says 12 mines scatter in the USA are owned by Chinese nationals.

I do not know their size but if they are large and they are shut down we could get a 10-20% drop in hash rate.


They moved from China to USA due to ban in China. They will relocate to some other country in case USA also ban them.

Kazakhstan is also an ideal destination for miners from China.


Duh ,

If USA decides they are spies that gear will be frozen for months if not years.

USA can be really shitty when they want to be.

They got Canada to arrest a big shot from Huawei and bring them back to the USA they held her for quite a while.
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