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1821  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2023, 02:34:51 PM
Bitcoin back to 37K again and it seems to bull run is here anddddddd the fee to do a single transaction is 6$ right now what a jokeeeeee  Cry Cry Cry btw guys is ETF news is over ?

I don't think the mempool activity is natural, someone out there is driving transaction costs up for some reason.



Those little transactions are 90% the same, therfore about 80% of the transactions in the block is made up of these things. Not natural.

Fees are up around $15 now, I wonder how much this dimwit is willing to donate to the miners before he stops.

I'm sure Phil is enjoying the increased fees

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.msg63179960#msg63179960

big snip

"last ten blocks

817324------------ 2.84
817323------------ 2.93
817322------------ 3.41
817321------------ 2.98
817320------------ 3.04
817319------------ 3.79
817318------------ 3.10
817317-------------2.51
817316-------------3.21
817315-------------3.43
total---------------- 31.24 blocks

average of 3.124 btc a block in fees

so say .6124 is normal an extra 2.5 btc a block"


some quick math 9.374/6.25 = 1.49984 x 36500= 54,744.16 value for btc during that section of 10 blocks  for mining purposes only.

Really creates sell pressure on me as you want to take that extra profit.

we are pushing 300 usd a day profit  vs 200. But I am sell letting it ride. I am hodling for now.

Oh we added 12 s19xps and will fire them up quickly
1822  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 18, 2023, 02:12:46 PM
But they are a factory, you don't have to hide anything, just keep consumption constant.

How would they keep it constant when they need to plug in extra exahash of machines?
Let's assume they are responsible for 3%, at 400 exa that's 12exahash, so 40 000 S21, 5kw so 200MW of power, half a nuclear reactor!  Grin
Not even going to go into the details of adding an extra power line for 10MW but 200MW?

Well, if they have their own energy source, it won't be that complicated to mine.

200MW! To give you an example the nearby BMW factory has a 45MW peak power consumption, they've made an entire show of how the new cogen engines will provide 10MW of green power.  And here we're talking about 200MW going undiscovered in China!

Meanwhile:
Quote
Latest Block:   817312  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   99.5137%  (833 / 837.07 expected, 4.07 behind)
goign to turn positive again
Also, last block:
Quote
Fee span   317 - 3,249 sat/vB
Median fee   ~329 sat/vB$16.76
Total fees   ‎3.436 BTC$125,206
Subsidy + fees   ‎9.686 BTC$352,944

Some juicy fees for the weekend. Fudgeeeeee!




last ten blocks

817324------------ 2.84
817323------------ 2.93
817322------------ 3.41
817321------------ 2.98
817320------------ 3.04
817319------------ 3.79
817318------------ 3.10
817317-------------2.51
817316-------------3.21
817315-------------3.43
total---------------- 31.24 blocks

average of 3.124 btc a block in fees

so say .6124 is normal an extra 2.5 btc a block
1823  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2023, 04:13:50 AM
It is clear you are no Illustrious Greek. If you were you would be half as smart as Antisthenes.. Now your just... eeww, you...
Thank you friend, but now we’re in trouble - multiple triggering that AI fagot abomination.
Btw, since we’re at it, you are the single most honest person filled with integrity, I’m aware of in this forum. Couple others are close, but not there yet.

Protip: The four of you should get a room.

meaning:  You and exp, billy no coiner and exp's grandma.

~snip
What's the difference?  mid-December or so, prior to the Christmas Holidays or prior to January 10 and after New Year's..   There seems to be a bit of a crunch in time between new year's and January 10.. but getting it out of the way prior to various holidays might allow for some resolution of the matter.. ..

but then I suppose if they were to wait until after the holidays, then they don't have the holidays getting in the way... but I don't see much of any difference.. unless there is a bit of desire to continue to delay a wee bit.. to make sure that they are not missing anything and prepared once the ETFs go on line.. which could be a bit of a "nothing burger" even though I am anticipating that probably we would end up getting more pump rather than a dump, once they do actually go live.. a pump just seems more likely .. but who knows?
I don't know the US tax code (and from what I understand, nobody does) but up north, capital gains taxes are paid in the year they are realized.  There could be advantages to waiting until the new year.

Sure, I already understand that there could be angels that relate to taxes, yet capital gains would ONLY apply to purchases and sells that are made in the same year, and surely there could be some other matters that relate to taxes and reporting, but launching a new product prior to the new year rather than after the new year gives more options rather than fewer options, and so would justify wanting to launch earlier rather than later (in order to have more options), yet the SEC may likely be somewhat neutral on the calendar year matter, I would think that investing companies would rather give their customers more options rather than fewer options, even though launching in 2023 could well put some clients at a disadvantage if they were planning to ONLY be ready to transition into an ETF after the beginning of the year, but there ended up being a price run up because the product launched in 2023 rather than in 2024 when they were planning to get in.

Yeah, I am writing a lot, and even accounting for some possible tax ramifications of one year versus another, I still don't feel like I have much of any clue why it would be preferable (from Phillip's perspective or from anyone else's except maybe officials merely just wanting to delay as long as feasible) that the Spot ETF product launch in January 2024 as opposed to December 2023.  Edit:  Maybe this part sort-of answered by Philip in the below post.

~snip
What's the difference?  mid-December or so, prior to the Christmas Holidays or prior to January 10 and after New Year's..   There seems to be a bit of a crunch in time between new year's and January 10.. but getting it out of the way prior to various holidays might allow for some resolution of the matter.. ..

but then I suppose if they were to wait until after the holidays, then they don't have the holidays getting in the way... but I don't see much of any difference.. unless there is a bit of desire to continue to delay a wee bit.. to make sure that they are not missing anything and prepared once the ETFs go on line.. which could be a bit of a "nothing burger" even though I am anticipating that probably we would end up getting more pump rather than a dump, once they do actually go live.. a pump just seems more likely .. but who knows?
I don't know the US tax code (and from what I understand, nobody does) but up north, capital gains taxes are paid in the year they are realized.  There could be advantages to waiting until the new year.
yep.  an eft dec 10 with a jump to 100k by dec 30 means a sale gets taxed and paid asap.

an eft jan 10 with a jump to 100k by jan 30 means a sales gets taxed and paid 18 months later.

Somif we get eft in dec we may have a lot of selloffs and fast drops for,jan.

while the eft in jan may mean hodl works.an d we don’t drop off like mad.

but honey badger don’t care so I guess either one is good.

Sure there could be shenanigan's either way, but it all seems a kind of wash. in the whole scheme of things in terms of potential preferability of whether a Spot ETF is launched later rather than sooner, or January 2024 as opposed to December 2023.

And yeah, I am presuming a pump on the news of an actual BTC Spot ETF approval, but I am not really sure how much of a pump and/or how it might play out and if that would be creating any major buys and sells within the 2023 calendar year (even if the approval were to occur sometimes in December.. yeah, some of the BIGGER players play those kinds of games, but it may or may not work as expected for some of them, even some of the are BIGGER players).

My fear is we do the eft in dec and run up solid.

A lot take profits in Jan and we tank solid.

The whole bull momentum gets slowed.

With mining slower bullruns are better the last year with gradual up tick has been good for me.
1824  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2023, 02:54:33 AM

~snip

What's the difference?  mid-December or so, prior to the Christmas Holidays or prior to January 10 and after New Year's..   There seems to be a bit of a crunch in time between new year's and January 10.. but getting it out of the way prior to various holidays might allow for some resolution of the matter.. ..

but then I suppose if they were to wait until after the holidays, then they don't have the holidays getting in the way... but I don't see much of any difference.. unless there is a bit of desire to continue to delay a wee bit.. to make sure that they are not missing anything and prepared once the ETFs go on line.. which could be a bit of a "nothing burger" even though I am anticipating that probably we would end up getting more pump rather than a dump, once they do actually go live.. a pump just seems more likely .. but who knows?

 I don't know the US tax code (and from what I understand, nobody does) but up north, capital gains taxes are paid in the year they are realized.  There could be advantages to waiting until the new year.


yep.  an eft dec 10 with a jump to 100k by dec 30 means a sale gets taxed and paid asap.

an eft jan 10 with a jump to 100k by jan 30 means a sales gets taxed and paid 18 months later.

Somif we get eft in dec we may have a lot of selloffs and fast drops for,jan.

while the eft in jan may mean hodl works.an d we don’t drop off like mad.

but honey badger don’t care so I guess either one is good.
1825  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How high can the transaction fees become? on: November 18, 2023, 01:47:44 AM
Have there been made any calculations how high the transaction fees for bitcoin main network could get in the future?

I currently have my BTC stored on a MultiSig cold wallet, which can't be connected to a lightning node. Do you think it's a better idea to move them to a lightning wallet like on electrum for example before the transaction fees get too high? I want to avoid paying a big amount just for one transaction in the main network
That's a good idea. I did not give it a thought, but in my opinion, you should. It is not that the fees are going to touch the sky soon; they are just temporary spikes due to the ordinals and other manipulation by the bad actors of the market, which will be solved soon, but it is best for you and all of us to follow this idea.

Because to setup the lighting network, we do have to pay the current fee, so if we want to avoid that, we should setup one when the fee comes down. Actually, in my opinion, I don't think fees are going to come back at the normal rate anytime because the ordinal problems are increasing day by day. Today I just checked the volume of Ordinals transactions, and it was ATH since its inception.

I was stunned for a moment, but if it keeps increasing, then it will be best for all of us to move to LN nodes before the halving because, after the halving, the price might become double what it is now.

It is not going to be ‘solved’.  How hard is this for people to understand.

If people want to use an oil tanker to ship a 1 quart can of oil this will continue to happen over and over and over and over  again.

People need to using the right shipper to transport .

Every suggestion I have read does not stop this issue.  Here are some ideas


truly banning any sends under 0.0001 btc
making smallest fee 0.00001 btc
make blocks 8mb
no pool can greenlight smaller fees
1826  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Antminer S19 90TH - BraiinOS overclock on: November 18, 2023, 01:27:56 AM
70c is good.


80
85
90 all of these are pushing limits.
1827  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dump market potential? on: November 18, 2023, 01:25:05 AM
I've been reading posts in this forum from ppl who aren't experts in cryptos or finances but they're asking ppl to buy because the price's going high. They shouldn't spread FOMO but they're doing it because they've already bought their own bitcoin so they're trying to get other ppl to fall in to FOMO.

FOMO will always find new people to attract and will always target those who do lack the patience , who lack discipline and like you said , the sensible traders. Well , it's true that most of the Bitcoin predictions weren't on point but personally I do remember some people actually making accurate prediction of what Bitcoin could do and what target it could reach during the next bull run. ( predicting Btc price is almost impossible but it's worth trying)

Regarding dump chances , I personally do not think we will see another dump in price before Bitcoin makes a sudden rise in price that will require a correction but until then , I cannot see Bitcoin going under 34k during this year and the next one as well. 

You could think that or they could simply be pointing out past surges which if we follow surely means an ath in late 2024 or early 2025.

The question is why are you being negative? Not why are they being positive.

What makes you think the pattern fails to repeat?

Mind you sometime this happens I am interested in why you think we crash soon and dont go to 42-45k by dec 31 this year.
1828  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How high can the transaction fees become? on: November 18, 2023, 01:02:30 AM
It’s impossible to calculate this, or rather practically impossible, at least I can’t imagine how to calculate how much a transaction in bitcoins will cost in the future. In any case, even when a person calculates the cost of a transaction in the near future, this amount will still change; it depends on so many factors that it is impossible to imagine.

It's impossible to know what the exact fee will be, but we can more or less predict it by using common sense.
Currently the average fee is $18 according to bitinfocharts. The historical top is $60 at the 2021 price peak when people were trying to exchange money fast, taking advantage of the premium. The price at the time was $60k, so the fee they were willing to pay was 1000 times lower than the price per bitcoin. If we were to estimate that people are ready to pay the price/1000 that would put us somewhere at $35 in fees and this is actually forming a resistance on the chart, because in May 2023 when the price went to $30k for the first time this year, people were paying $30 in fees and that was the top that lasted less than 2 days.



This is by no means a rule, but if we were to hit $100k next year, you could expect people to be ready to pay close to $100 for their transaction.

yeah if you started stacking last year at 16k and have 2 btc when it hits 100k you grab 200k for 32k

who cares if you spend 200 or 300 to cash it out.
1829  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 17, 2023, 11:12:05 PM

According to BBG gang most probable date is January. Last deadline is Jan 10th. So probably before that date.

That would be better than dec 2023. So lets hope you are correct.
1830  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [POLL] Is bigger block capacity still a taboo? on: November 17, 2023, 06:56:12 PM
it is not a solution.

1mb 4bm 8mb 16mb 32mb 64mb all fail to solve why this occurs.

scrypt has 2 viable coins for merge mining and they make 12x the blocks per hour or day or week or month or year.

scrypt is the better design for small value frequent moves.

Oh but btc added LN
and Scrypt added LN for ltc and could do so for Doge.

oh a big block fixes things and scrypt can make a big block.

A  large freighter can carry more than 1 million barrels of oil

you do not use it to carry  a few cans of oil

Sha-256/BTC will not ever really win over scrypt/LTC/DOGE  if you are doing many 100 usd or less transactions.

If BTC users understood this they would

A) hodl large  BTC in self custody 10k or higher
B) small amounts of btc ltc and doge in an exchange like coinbase maybe 1k total
C) never pay small amount of BTC to anyone use LTC or Doge

all issues solved.

this fixes fees.

end of story.


If someone can show me a way for the 12x blocks an hour edge that scrypt has I would reconsider but frankly I do not see a way for btc to win by using a freight to move 5 dollars worth of oil


1831  Economy / Economics / Re: The Thailand government will distribute money to its citizens. Economists critic on: November 17, 2023, 05:48:44 PM
If the people really get this real-fake money I wonder if the price of

rice and canned foods rise.
The problem isn't only that, but they will start to trust this real-fake money.

Then they will need policies to combat inflation.
Increase the interest rate, price control, adjust the tax rate etc that make people to give the money to banks/governments. It's a never ends problem, when the inflation rate drop, they will decrease the interest rate etc. They just switch a new policy and hold, then switch back to the old policy, repeat.

trust the 'real-fake' money is not a problem if they do not do this over and over.

But knowing the worlds governments this will get done over and over and over turning into the very thing you fear.
1832  Other / Meta / Re: Legendary Members Spread Completely Fake Information - Merit System Do Not Work on: November 17, 2023, 05:38:11 PM
At learn bitcoin he was dissing badecker. Baddecker has a lot of real merits.

As you can see, I meant it for the legendaries who did not earn many merits in their forum life. I was giving him an Idea that even though they are Legendary members, it does not mean all of them are knowledgeable enough. I have seen a lot of Legendary accounts that failed to earn 100 merits in the last five years. They have lower credibility than a Full member who earned 100 Merits in the new era.

Now, if you talk about Badecker, he has earned around 355 merits after the air-dropped merits. Now, look at the number of posts he made in this forum. It's almost 40K. Earning 355 merits against nearly 40K posts is not too much. I am going to hit 1600 Posts this week, and I have earned almost 500 merits, and I still think sometimes I write shit.

Well BaDdecker is crazy as they come. I am not quite sure if he is real or more like Steve Colbert was on his older show. A left wing playing a right wing.

Not sure it would be fair to call someone crazy because  the stuff they share around here. I do not personally know him, but would rather lean myself on believing he is just into very conspiratorial subjects and also very conspiratorial medicine theories. Regardless of it,  the quantity of merits he has received sounds about right keeping in mind the amount of time he has posted here, if I would even bet most of his earned merits were either gotten during Trump campaigns or when he did not discuss completely about politics and more about conspiracies, from some old participations I have seen in the Politics and society section, it would seem to be that place was more appealed by conspiracies than it is now.

that is why I said I am not sure he is simply faking it all to get people to talk back or post back to him.

He is interesting to say the least we can leave it at that.
1833  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How high can the transaction fees become? on: November 17, 2023, 05:32:22 PM
or recognize why it happens.

scrypt is the better algo for small sends.

both doge and ltc are dirt cheap to send coins .  and they do it quickly.

The mining algorithm has nothing to do with transaction fees.

yes it does.

sha-256 is setup to mine BTC. btc is 10 blocks an hour

scrypt is setup to merge mine 20 blocks of LTC an hour and 100 blocks of doge an hour.

So  room for 10 blocks of tx fees vs

room for 120 blocks of tx fees

both Algos have LN  service

So scrypt can do 12x the volume of btc

The fact you posted what you posted shows how deep the problem runs as you did not understand my concerns in the least or the reasons I keep writing this.

using btc via sha 256 for cash in small amounts is at a 12x disadvantage to using scrypt LTC/Doge

So rather then complain about high fees lets move on to proper use for

BTC
Large value movement of wealth
Large value storage of wealth

LTC/Doge
small value payments
small value storage.

The solution above would work . At least that is the way I see it.

1834  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Is the transfer transaction confirmed within 1 year? on: November 17, 2023, 05:15:53 PM

I use Trezor one cold wallet.
The old segwit address had very low BTC.
We supposedly sent the remaining BTC to the new segwit address.
Mining fees are still very low.
We made the transaction on 11-11-2023.
I think it's at the bottom of the list because the mining fee is so low.
Will this transaction be confirmed in 1-2 years? Grin
If you write your ideas, we will be informed.
Best  regards.

https://explorer.viawallet.com/btc/address/bc1q2jrecvg8u80rsymugyy3z945dph87m86n5k8jz


https://bitaps.com/bc1q2jrecvg8u80rsymugyy3z945dph87m86n5k8jz



So you are essentially doing an advertisement for scrypt  algo. Since you could have easily sent $1.84 worth of  Either LTC or Doge.

Once again I am not saying this send was a clever way to advertise that scrypt is better for small sends.
I am not saying the poster is a scrypt fan.

But basically this does exactly that.
1835  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Landfill methane to mine Bitcoin on: November 17, 2023, 05:06:10 PM
I don't know if this an American initiative. I haven't read about any gases powering bitcoin miners before what the OP's saying about Utah. I'd say it's a gimmick if they can't power plants specifically to power mining farms. If they're putting turbine power in the grid it's going to be used for commercial and domestic use not only for mining.

Methane, hydrogen, solar, hydro electric they've all been used in the past as options but did the power plants use them?

1000's of  solar megawatts are grid tied in the USA
1836  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How high can the transaction fees become? on: November 17, 2023, 03:50:45 AM
Do you think it's a better idea to move them to a lightning wallet like on electrum for example before the transaction fees get too high? I want to avoid paying a big amount just for one transaction in the main network

The fees are already too high. The best time to open a lightning channel is when fees are low because it requires an on-chain transaction. Lightning is meant for smaller payments so perhaps you shouldn't move your entire cold storage to lightning. I would just open a channel big enough for a few payments and occasionally top it off.

or recognize why it happens.

scrypt is the better algo for small sends.

both doge and ltc are dirt cheap to send coins .  and they do it quickly.

they are not going away .

also so far no action against ordinals. so it appears the powers to be are fine with sending scrapes to ltc/doge for small payments.

no matter what btc does other than adding a viable coin for merge mining btc makes 1 block and ltc doge makes 12 blocks.
1837  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How high can the transaction fees become? on: November 17, 2023, 03:34:35 AM
well my sha gear is happy. blocks are about 8 coins to 8.5 coins.

A 25% markup.

and as I explained time and time again this can’t be done every day for ever but it can easily be done for one week  of every 13.

It will back off by monday or tuesday.

then fire up again.
1838  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Stuck in mempool @ 17.9 for 2 weeks on: November 17, 2023, 03:26:18 AM
I tried to check the TXID you provided above the transaction was made 2 weeks ago and the transaction was already rejected by other nodes so you should be able to recreate a new transaction I don't think CPFP will work you need to contact the sender Mia if the sent amount is already rejected or if it's funded back to her account. Ask her to make a new transaction once again with enough fee if it was already rejected.
He should let ViaBTC mine a block and the transaction would be confirmed.

I was unable to check it from blockchair.com, but I saw it on https://www.blockchain.com/explorer and https://blockstream.info.

https://blockstream.info/tx/3fc2ebf7dd2ce21a8b7a68545942c0d1b8f0f141f8a4c91865031eb65a5e4209
https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/transactions/btc/3fc2ebf7dd2ce21a8b7a68545942c0d1b8f0f141f8a4c91865031eb65a5e4209

Which means it has not been dropped from nodes of some mempool and also not displayed to be invalid on ViaBTC accelerator and can still be confirmed and it will not take up to 4 to 5 hours before ViaBTC will mine the next block.

The mempool is over 170 sat/vbyte and not worth to rebroadcast the coins. Also the sender's wallet is not his, although I doubt if it is from a custodial wallet as it is of low fee and also supporting replace-by-fee.

Edit:
ViaBTC mined block 817095 and the transaction has been confirmed.

you did good work. at op try to get a trezor.io wallet hardware and use rbf to fix issues.
1839  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 16, 2023, 11:39:04 PM
They could have 9 slot controllers
check out an old manual on the s5

It could be, but I don't know, I think the cost for such a setup would be pretty high, especially with the new hash boards that use busbars that need to click-tight to obtain proper voltage, the hash boards can't be just hanging in free air, so the rack/mount that holds them needs to carefully designed, but ya, Bitmain folks are smart, am sure they would have figure a way to safely abused new gears and still sell them as brand new, I just highly doubt it's as simple as many people think, as in, they don't just put the whole miner as is and then dust it off and send it, they would have been caught a long time ago if they did that.

I have seen what vms built to run air s19's in liquid coolers. Special racks to slide in boards   no fans special psu. Special controller it did 3 boards.

Very nice design which I agreed not to describe much or photo.

You could easy peasy have an s19 put in this clever cooler setup. unit for 2 months pull it out  dip clean it and then move the boards into the oem shell of the s19.

or in the case we are talking about do this with s21's .

what is the labor to pull 3 boards and put into the new cooler a kid with fast hands and good eyes could do it in 20 min.  two months later clean it dry and set it up to ship in 40 min

So 1 hour maybe 90 minutes over a 2 month time slot.

If Bitmain sold 10000 pieces to a big farm they may know this and prefer since the gear won't be a dud.
1840  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 16, 2023, 10:38:36 PM
The Bitcoin monthly and weekly charts are still looking incredibly bullish. I just see higher and higher lows. Someone is snatching up all the BTC… I think we gap back up to test $38K in the next couple of days. Must resist the urge to take profits…

Maybe I should cash it all and be done.
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