1561
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Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened.
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on: December 03, 2023, 04:01:04 PM
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https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 819589 (2 minutes ago) Current Pace: 99.2818% (1094 / 1101.91 expected, 7.91 behind) Previous Difficulty: 64678587803496.61 Current Difficulty: 67957790298897.88 Next Difficulty: between 67495959887426 and 67592036924124 Next Difficulty Change: between -0.6796% and -0.5382% Previous Retarget: November 25, 2023 at 7:11 PM (+5.0700%) Next Retarget (earliest): Saturday at 9:07 PM (in 6d 10h 16m 11s) Next Retarget (latest): Saturday at 9:37 PM (in 6d 10h 46m 41s) Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 1h 55m 19s and 14d 2h 25m 50s so last jump at 1000 blocks we were near 1% and finished at 5% this jump we were near -1.5 % at 1000 blocks we went right near 40k and we pick things up 🆙. If we finish out at 42k and + 5% I would not be surprised. It is not that gear comes on line that fast. a lot is clocking ability. an xp can do 110th to 160th with aftermarket controller the epic model And whatsminer m50s can do 80th to 110th economy of scale allows for a wide clocking swing 160/110 is a 44% jump 110/80 is a 37% jump no new gear just change clocks 🕰️ we know new gear does come online. but clocks can really make a change in % edit we got over 40 k and newhedge.io says we are plus "Latest Block: 819650 (13 minutes ago) Current Pace: 100.1759% (1155 / 1152.97 expected, 2.03 ahead) Previous Difficulty: 64678587803496.61 Current Difficulty: 67957790298897.88 Next Difficulty: between 68076189693234 and 68102659987159 Next Difficulty Change: between +0.1742% and +0.2132% Previous Retarget: November 25, 2023 at 7:11 PM (+5.0700%) Next Retarget (earliest): Saturday at 6:36 PM (in 5d 23h 14m 52s) Next Retarget (latest): Saturday at 6:42 PM (in 5d 23h 21m 20s) Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 23h 24m 35s and 13d 23h 31m 3s" this is and argument for clocking and it was bumped a bit. But who knows as it could be random enough we are now 22 blocks ahead. which means a clear correlation to the price and likely due to the same amount of gear with lots of clocking play.. there is a good part to this. if we shoot to 80k or 100 k we likely would run of of clocking space. and growth would slow for a bit. mean while enjoy the higher prices.
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1565
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Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned
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on: December 03, 2023, 03:16:09 PM
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So even the providers of these services cooperate with the authorities and payments may not be processed if they are on the OFAC list, yet they are mixing services.
Yeap, I guess that probably that was mentioned in FIOD article under the point about KYT policy: In the case of Sinbad.io, more than 50 percent of all mixed cryptocurrencies were found to have a criminal origin. In the case of Sinbad. io, there are no measures in place to implement and enforce a Know Your Customer (KYC) or Know Your Transaction (KYT) policy. Of course we don't support criminal activity in Bitcoin or crypto, but according to the Chainalysis data just 0.12-0.24% of Bitcoin transactions is probably related with crime; and as for Bitcoin mixing, then more than 90% mixing is made by law-abiding people. So if mixers don't let to use their service for those who stole money by hacking different projects etc, most of mixer users will even not find that out ever. Okay numbers are funny and can be played with. But here goes. sinbad.io handles 100 coins a day supposedly 50 are “hot” coins. If true it is a real issue. Unfortunately we will never see the paperwork that proves it. So theymos choose a safe path for now. I lost $1111 a month as I just agreed to a deal with a new mixer. I have to end the deal in a month vs 6 months. I was donating around 150 a month to some forum members via my diff prediction giveaway and to talk img and to a writer of bitcoin history from 2009 to 2024 lastly to johne mempool as it helps people avoid high tx fees. all gone for now. My issue is not with theymos. my problem is with the accusations that 50% of the coins in sinbad were bad. I also know us law will not reveal the proof. until the trial.
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1567
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Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: The best passphrase
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on: December 03, 2023, 02:44:30 PM
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The combination of several capital letters, lower case letters, several numbers and several characters with a total of 10 to 15, for me is strong enough to be used as a password and passphrase. Using this combination makes it easier for me to remember a time. For one device and another I use different, but not more than two passphrase.
Combining all the possible printable characters from the ASCII table(93 in total) wil give the following entropy (in bits): For 10 total characters: 65 bits For 15 total characters: 98 bits So I suggest you use anything larger than 15 characters to get a good entropy. Ps. I am not sure whether all these 93 characters can be used but if I recall correctly they can, I am just busy at the moment and I can't check online. If someone could confirm this please Some website restrict the none number , letter symbols. @ and * are restricted on a few websites I use.
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1568
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Pending transaction for 4 days with 35 sat fee?
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on: December 03, 2023, 04:23:19 AM
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My transaction was stuck due to low fees, no RBF and I couldn't CPFP, the fee I had to pay the miners was quite high but it was 100% successful and so fast... I had the transaction completed within 20 minutes. Had the pleasure to be served by btcaccelerator.info, this site is a super. I was doubting the success rates but after reading all the reviews below I decided to try it. They are not wrong, this service works and its very effective. https://www.btcaccelerator.info/hmm if legit this is a side business for a major pool. now picture getting a ton of 35 dollar payments for a 5-10 buck tx. and you are foundry pool. now picture using 15 of each 35 dollar payment to flood the mempool with 1-20 sat dust moves. foundry makes $$$ doing this.
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1569
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Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned
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on: December 03, 2023, 03:55:50 AM
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I think it is not as important for the safety of theymos to BAN Mixers straight away as it is to rather promote a strong statement against the use of criminal funds with existing Mixers.
It all boils down to how much thought theymos gave this decision. Let me highlight another very similar example in the shadows of mining pools, Mara pool (a U.S based pool) has been censoring OFAC listed addresses since 2021, on the other hand, Foundry (another U.S based pool 8 times bigger than Mara) does not censor those transactions, so what gives? There are a few possible scenarios here, one of these two large corps has a bad lawyer who did not point them to the "right" direction, so it's either Foundry is in the wrong and is going to be in deep shit for not banning those transactions, or Mara sucked the government's dick for nothing. Judging by the size of Foundry, I find it hard to believe that they do not know for certain that they are perfectly safe without censoring those transactions, or else -- it's a huge risk for not too much reward for them. So now if we reflect this on the forum/theymos, I hope that if we have to bend over, we should at least do it while knowing that it's worth it and that any other option is not viable. I hope that Theymos will do his best (assuming he has not) to evaluate the situation by consulting some good lawyers who would either point him to a complete ban or maybe just a warning and a set of rules that indicate using certain mixers that engaged in "laundering" criminal funds is against the forum rules and to delete and ban everyone who promotes those particular mixers but not mixers in general. I asked AI about the legal status of forum content and its owner (ya may not the best place to ask but anyway) In the United States, forum owners are generally protected by Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act (CDA). This law provides immunity to online platforms, including forums, from being held liable for the content posted by their users. Section 230 protects forum owners from legal action related to content moderation decisions, as well as from liability for the content itself.
However, it's important to note that there are exceptions, and forum owners may still be held responsible for certain types of content, such as intellectual property violations, federal criminal law, or violations of other specific statutes.
In practice, forum owners often establish and enforce terms of service that outline the rules for user behavior and content posting on their platforms. They may reserve the right to remove or moderate content that violates these terms. Additionally, they may cooperate with law enforcement if illegal activities are identified on their platform. So there is still a slight possibility that the forum could get away with just 1- Banning all sanctioned/seized mixers. 2- Banning everyone who encourages the usage of mixers for criminal purposes. Of course, going with the assumption that mixers (in their bare form are not illegal) at least this shouldn't be an unconditional submission to the government: if theymos has concluded that retrieving is the only option here, we should accept it and remember the fact that while we as members are only subject to losing the forum, he could lose his freedom. Mixers are a tool. Much like a hammer or a chainsaw. You can do well with them or you can do bad. So two got busted as they were misused. Hackers cleaning stolen coins = bad. So for the sake of safety shutting them down for a while is not that stupid. USA will have their elections in 2024 so a year from now we may have a different leader and go in a different direction. It is annoying but we can survive it. Oh why does an honest person need a mixer. Simple honest guy came here in 2010 and owns 1000 or more coins. He reports when he cashes some. Since he got his 1000 plus coins in 2010 value was 1000 bucks. He does not want them traced back when he sells a free. So look below Perfectly legal to do this in the USA: 1) Buy 1000 coins for $1000 bucks in 2010 2) when you need money send 10 to a second address 3) then send 5 to a mixer 4) then send 5 to coinbase pay tax. 5) on a 1 dollar cost basis. 5 x 40000 = 200,000 dollars cost basis of 5 bucks pay your tax. on 195000 profit 5) fully legit use of the mixer. 6) no one knows you have 995 coins and are a target 6) no crime repeat 7) no crime a clean mixer use.
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1570
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Economy / Speculation / Re: back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak.
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on: December 03, 2023, 01:38:13 AM
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We can only speculate about that, although only then we will see how much BTC was actually lost in the first years, but I still think that there are a lot more than 1 million BTC that may be waiting for the right moment to enter the market if we take into account the speculation that Satoshi mined around 1 million BTC by himself. Also, in the first reward era, the reward was 50 BTC per block, which means that 50% of all BTC was mined in the first 4 years.
Of course, we should not doubt that these long-term holders are not intelligent people who will not exclusively use CEX, but will look for some other methods such as OTC or DEX in order to prevent the influence on the price.
I do not think that there are that many coins that are waiting to enter the market, it just doesn't feel like a million would be realistic approach. Plus, the market is already accumulating a lot, there are just companies with thousands and thousands of bitcoins, and they may enter the market if they want to, but we all know that it is not going to end up with something that could change it in the end. Hopefully, it could reach to a point where we could see something that could change things in the end. I believe that we could end up with a situation that could be a lot more important on the long run, and at this moment we are looking at something that won't be changing anytime soon when we reach that higher price. I get that some people do expect it to change a lot, but I bet that it won't have that type of drastic change all that quickly, we could see some drops here and there but the increases will be a lot more common if you ask me for sure. From the open post "If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months. 35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1. close as we were around 38.8 k on the first and now 39.5k 42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1." opinons and guesses? We are close to my opening post
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1571
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin at its ATH of 2023 so far
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on: December 03, 2023, 01:28:25 AM
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Yep, that's right, BTC has exceeded $39k, and it's possible that the next retest will be at $40k or more, before finally experiencing a market correction first. The market may be a little sideways in the future, so we have to be ready for various strategies. What's more, it looks like this is already starting to head towards the bullish era in 2024 or 2025, so we have to be ready for everything. retest does not occur until Jan ⅔ we should get to 48k by dec 31 I have picked 42k for dec 1 and 48 k for dec 31 did it at least 30 days or more in the past. I was close with dec 1. 38.8k not quite 42k see thread link https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5472517.0
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1572
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!
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on: December 03, 2023, 01:25:31 AM
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Let's just make a small recap of the current situation. Firstly, an overview of the current situation: i was about to put together a table of the different exchanges the applicants want to appear on. thanks for saving me time(have my usual merit giveaway) most share traders/pension managers care more about the nasdaq first then NYSE second.. the cboe are way down the scale my odds are still on blackrock(ishares) being first mover for nasdaq I think blackrock does grab it.
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1573
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 03, 2023, 01:24:03 AM
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Another step up the ladder we go. I’ve now had multiple people ask me about whether or not they should cash out their retirement and put it all into Bitcoin. This is usually a sign of a top but it’s definitely a sign that people who watch Bitcoin are starting to get fomo. With so much good news in the pipeline things may stay exciting for a while.
You know alot of stupid people. Do you ask them why they didn't already do that? Here are some real merits And here are some thoughts on Giants and "Number Go Up" One characteristic of Giants is that sometimes buy certain classes of assets at what seem to be very prices. All kinds of interesting stuff. Below one case, who buys this stuff? $91,000,000?? https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/feb/04/wow-91m-jeff-koons-blow-up-dogs-record-prices-paris-oxfordGiants, defined in a certain way, have so much money (as well as more money coming in), that the LAST thing they need are more businesses, generating more CA$H. It's almost a problem. So what do some of them do? They buy a Store of Value that they like and have confidence in. The Koons Balloon Dog was bought by a Giant. I presume he liked it, wanted it. It's not generating income. But as a Store of Value, it just could be that the owner could sell that Dog if he wanted..., to whom? Another Giant. Once a Giant has, say, 5 castles in Europe, do they want more? Look, the Rothschilds have been GIVING away castles & palaces in recent years. The Marginal Utility of another palace is NEGATIVE for them now. Another example would be high-end car collectors, at some point it becomes more of a pain-in-the-butt collecting evermore Mercedes, Lambos.. There are several assets (perhaps better said: asset classes) that work a little better than others for Giants. One clue: for some (most?) of these assets, as the price goes up, they are harder to find/buy. Hmm. Bitcoin behaves a little differently from typical assets owned by the Giants. I'm still trying to figure this one out (where BTC falls on the spectrum of desired assets of Giants). It does look like the Marginal Utility of owning more BTC declines slowly though, VERY typical of assets wanted by the Giants. Let's see if this scarcity notion of most Giants' Assets holds in the case of BTC. Perhaps rather than becoming physically more scarce, the BTC price increases might just be more dramatic than usual if/when the BIG $$$ start to flow in. "Number Go Up even more Bigly." But, like I wrote, Bitcoin may not follow the other assets I try to track. It's a New Asset, really a new asset class. And it is risky IMO, as .gov seems to hate it. "Following in the footsteps of Giants" may require some out-of-the-box thinking. But, almost everyone who buys Bitcoin is at least part way there. We recognize value (and at least the idea, even if unspoken, of Marginal Utility). I am extremely interested (and have been for years) in following BTC's price movements and acceptance in the years to come. We will just have to see. "We watch together, no?" good read I sent some merits
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1574
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Target Prices and Resistance Levels?
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on: December 03, 2023, 12:25:32 AM
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So which post is correct here on the actual meaning of target price and resistance levels?
For the sake of argument the current BTC resistant point would be 40k. We are yet to pass it this year and we are close to it. I ladder up so I have multiple targets personally. 40404 _ I sell a bit 42424 _ I sell a bit 45454 _ I sell a bit so I have three current target points. and the general resistance point for all of btc is 40K at this moment. MY post is close enough to accurate and you will find that close enough tends to work. I have been predicting 42k for dec 1 and 48 k for dec 31 for months with a small pull back in Jan
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1577
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 02, 2023, 11:11:33 PM
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Another step up the ladder we go. I’ve now had multiple people ask me about whether or not they should cash out their retirement and put it all into Bitcoin. This is usually a sign of a top but it’s definitely a sign that people who watch Bitcoin are starting to get fomo. With so much good news in the pipeline things may stay exciting for a while.
You know alot of stupid people. Do you ask them why they didn't already do that? You are funny. Here are some merits.
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1578
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Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned
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on: December 02, 2023, 11:06:30 PM
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Are you willing to do that publicly? Judging by your username, and judging by what I've read about you, you value your privacy. I don't think Bitcointalk's Admin isn't as anonymous as you are, which means there can be real-life consequences.
I do agree there can be real life consequences. This is why I am thinking of a different approach. I think censoring from the start is drawing a very thin line and makes the future even more uncertain for Bitcoin Talk, A better route would have been maybe requiring Mixers to advertise on Bitcoin Talk only if the links direct you first to a page where you are shown some sort of warning about using the Service for criminal purposes. Or requiring such warning to be included in the Signature Campaign. Some body who WANTS to use a Mixer will look for it anyway, whether the link is available on Bitcoin Talk directly or not. After all, you can not oblige some body to not break the law. But you can show a preventive warning.
I think it is not as important for the safety of theymos to BAN Mixers straight away as it is to rather promote a strong statement against the use of criminal funds with existing Mixers. I imagine the Dutch Local Authorities would not be too happy to find out theymos has banned Mixers only to continue promoting Coin Joins but will instead be much happier if theymos made it clear every single time that Mixers are NOT to be used with illegal funds. Otherwise it sets a dangerous precedent. I think of it like smoking ads. You are being told cigarettes can destroy your health. Now you know the risk and continuing to do so will only decline your health. Even at a first glance, it would make Bitcoin Talk much less suspicious to Authorities than the version we have today. Then the possible consequences are much lower for theymos too. What can they do to some body who has explicitly publicly stood against the criminal use of Mixers? Now compare that to what they can do to some body who banned Mixers only to continue supporting the one thing they hate the MOST. Coin Joins and Monero. They would have a much better case to form that way. I guess. Coin Join / Monero is not the way to go here. My opinion is don't do Coin Join / Monero State they are not allowed on the forum 2024. Leave hiding shit alone. Wait til the 2024 election. Maybe Next President admin alters rules. Pot was illegal in most USA states now lots of states make it legal. So maybe by Feb 2025 mixers are not so bad.
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1579
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Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened.
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on: December 02, 2023, 10:09:23 PM
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yeah all blind random luck. well we were at -16 blocks and we rallied from 38.5 to 39.5 and we are now -19 blocks.
If we wander around like this it means random theory is pretty good.
Or companies are fully on line as of last week. So plus or minus 1% is nothing.
If we now take off like mad and go to +5% it fits a pattern.
last jump we were near 0% and surged last week
so do we do this near 0% and surge due to higher prices.
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