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1721  Economy / Speculation / At what point does the 1/2 ing become meaningless 2032? on: November 25, 2023, 05:43:37 PM

okay

here we go.

2012        50.00     coin reward drops to 25,0000      fees were under 0.10 btc for most blocks
2016        25.00     coin reward drops to 12.5000      fees were often over 0.10 btc for most blocks
2020.       12.50     coin reward drops to 6.25000      fees were often over 0.50 btc for many blocks




2024         6.25      coin reward drops to 3.12500     fees will likely top 1 coin for many blocks.
2028         3.125    coin reward drops to 1.56250      fees will likely top 1 coin for many blocks
2032         1.5625  coin reward drops to 0.78125      fees will likely top 1 coin for many blocks

So I separated history from future.

And my fee estimates are simple best guess from my tired old memories.
I would love someone to find the real fee averages rather than my estimates.

but the ratios of rewards to fees are becoming more and more equal

2032 or 2036 will will no longer have the supply shock of the 1/2 ing that we have been getting.

I would be pretty old in 2036 79 years I likely won't give a fuck about  BTC and will no longer be posting but a lot of people on the site are 15-45 years old and will be active in btc. So I am posing a prediction guessing thread of what happens when that supply shock ends. As it clearly will end well before 2056 when I would be 99.

It looks to me like the shock of the 1/2 ing will exist in 2024 2028 and 2032 and not in 2036.

Your thoughts are welcome.

1722  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should I still hold the investment or sell it? on: November 25, 2023, 05:20:36 PM

First of all I'm a small bitcoin investor, and I'm not too old to invest so this is the beginning of my investment.

I have known about Bitcoin since long time ago and I have been interested in Bitcoin ever since. Slowly trying to learn about Bitcoin and interest in learning about Bitcoin introduced me to investing. At the beginning of investing in Bitcoin I felt different, I could not believe that investors invest in this crypto currency. While slowly trying to learn about investing and at some stage of trying I got a rough idea about investing and from then on I started to believe that investors really invest in this platform. It was okay for others to invest but I couldn't bring up the courage to invest myself because it seemed too risky to me. Although it seemed risky, since a curiosity was working in my mind, I took courage and decided to withdraw money from my savings account and decided to invest that money in Bitcoin.  
At the time I invested in Bitcoin I clearly remember when Bitcoin was worth around $25K. To be honest, I couldn't sleep well until a few days after investing, I always felt that maybe I had invested my hard-earned savings in the wrong place. Although it was bad for a few days, I was able to adjust myself with it later. After a few days of my investment, I felt that something good must be waiting for me, because since that time the price of Bitcoin has been steadily increasing and has reached its current level.  

When the price of Bitcoin reached $38K I thought I would sell my investment but I didn't sell my investment yet hoping for something better. Thinking whether to sell the investment or not I thought I should share the matter in the forum and I will get the best solution from the forum that's why I am sharing the matter in the forum whether I should hold on to my investment or sell it now.  
I don't need the money anyway, if I sell my investment now I have to deposit this money in the bank again.

Assuming this is a legit truth from you. You need to sell all of it and never invest in any crypto of any kind.

My reasoning is simple if $100 turning into $150 makes you this anxious you do not have the ability to invest in anything that is volatile.

Leave the market and don't look at it any more it is not for you.

BTW this goes for stocks or metals.  You simply are lacking the mindset to invest correctly.

1723  Other / Meta / Re: Delete my account on: November 25, 2023, 05:15:04 PM
Hello,

Thank you for your kind words and excuse my radical attitude.

The reason why is that I asked how could I pay with my Bitcoin and which taxation would be applied.
I got a response from an user as if I was trying not to pay taxes and elude my tax responsibilities.

I’m worried someone can legally attack me and sue me because of financial misdemeanor.

Based on your responses I will decide to stay in the forum and continue collaborating with others and learning new things.

Thanks

Well, it's my turn to respond because I am the user, and what I have to say is that he hasn't understood anything.

I have explained tax avoidance, which is legal, but I think it is better if I quote what I said, translating it.

I am trying to find smart ways to use my funds.
<...>
I hope my educational interest in learning more about the fiscal and practical usability aspect in the real world of cryptocurrencies is noted.

My reply:

Well, first of all it will depend, as it is not the same if you have 2,000 euros as 200,000 euros. In the second case I would consult Crypto Spain or someone similar.
<...>
As a summary, and as I have just commented in another thread, it seems that what you are looking for is tax avoidance, which consists of minimising the payment of taxes within the law. None of the 5 points minimise it, so, as I said at the beginning, depending on the money you have, consider consulting an expert in tax avoidance, as no one on the local forum is one.

What he needs to do, as DdmrDdmr has recommended, is not to take things so personally, and I would add that even less so when he has not understood them.

PS: OP has finally understood and apologized, so I'm reporting the thread to be locked.


I can see why you want the thread locked. as others are just adding gratuitous posts to pad their signature campaign> your reply was pretty definitive. At the op no one is out to get you, but many governments have many laws about taxes.

Depending on your profits you will get more attention. So getting a good tax expert will help you. I posted in a thread in another section detailing  how much I need to report to be legal in the USA.

I will add the link

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5473992.msg63216682#msg63216682

1724  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: New transaction no confirmations not in mempool on: November 25, 2023, 04:59:08 PM
so I went here.

https://www.viabtc.com/tools/broadcast


I entered this

b7007ef7cf8f9cb180231755a5bb7f2fbab122c7abe7d20cd345641718c730c0

and it says

raw transaction send failed


that means (I think) it was never sent ever thus you can not re send it.
1725  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Got hacked, lost 11 BTC on: November 25, 2023, 04:55:09 PM
The fact that someone allegedly had 11 BTC does not mean that this person must know how to sign a message or that he has any broader knowledge about Bitcoin. I have personally seen a lot of people who bought BTC a long time ago and then found themselves in a situation where they did not know even the most basic things, and these were not trolls, but people who really had the BTC they were talking about. Possession of something and knowledge about it do not have to be related to each other.
You are absolutely right in this statement. But that doesn't mean my assumption is wrong.

And if you are finished, then I hope you don’t mind me expressing my vision of the situation in more detail?:

I believe that OP did not lose any bitcoins. I propose OP simply made up this sad story so that out of pity or solidarity they would pour him merits. He didn't succeed. I’m glad that the forum’s audience is getting smarter every year and is less and less susceptible to such provocations

I also do not exclude other theories, the proposal of Pmalek also makes sense:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475428.msg63217689#msg63217689
Quote
We have that maniac (fxsurfer, antikvark, whatever the name is) who returns every couple of months and creates a few threads bashing bitcoin, everyone argues with him, and then he disappears, only to come back again some day.

It would be logical to write what you think the topic should be locked for - and you already wrote that in your post "OP is troll, no proofs, no signed messages". Although keep in mind that mods don't have to share your opinion and won't do anything.
Is such a free interpretation suitable for a report? I thought the report should be short. It turns out there is no single standard form for reports? Please do not evade away from newbie answers and provide at least a sample of a correct report

I wonder signing a message is no more important then placing a fractional coin in the address then withdrawing it.

 it is more costly to more in 0.0001 and then pull out 0.0001 although he could set it to 1 sat per byte and would lock it up  at no cost to with draw it.

But I am thinking how did the money get pulled from a core wallet as described by him I am not so sure what was done to pull it.

He claims it was not launched so I am not sure how it could be taken if it is not launched.

other then the hacker had full control of the pc via remote like anydesk.
1726  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 25, 2023, 04:48:37 PM

Quote
Current Pace:   104.4559%  (1957 / 1873.52 expected, 83.48 ahead)

So this night we're going to have the six positive streak, looking at blocktime in the meddle of the period the second week was way faster so as I said before, we're going to start with a bit of extra momentum, probably another positive adjustment. And Bitmain is sold out, a wave of S21 bought by almost everyone from Mara to Cleanspark is going to come online in January so I'm flipping right now to wonder if the grow will ever stop till the halving.
~250+ exa this year, on path of exceeding a 100% growth, insane if we look at power requirements and cost of this, so insane that if we want those e good old days of late 2021 we need a price of 200k per coin!

Quite funny, with these growth you look at a statement from Mara saying they plan on powering up already installed 4.1 exahash of gear in Garden City, TX and you're saying (at least I do) meh, seen worse, 7 Exas in UAE, keep them coming, lol! I'm out in the snow playing!  Grin



or hodl hodl hodl we may go to that 200k.

1727  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pending transaction.. on: November 25, 2023, 04:43:18 PM
You didn’t let the OP know that it could be more than that 14 days as we have seen in the past due to the size of individual nodes mempool. And from OP’s post i don’t think she will wait till then
He should just not use the old wallet again so that the transaction will not rebroadcast itself again and again, and wait for 14 days. He should also not use those fake accelerators that are just rebroadcasting transactions.

viabtc.com tool is not fake it works

All others are fake.


if the tx is under 500kb and sats were over 11 it will work. I used 11 not 10 to be sure.


At op if you want to move small amounts get a trezor hardware wallet. yes others work trezor is know by me it is what I use.

trezor allows rbf .


you can go to this site

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,30d,weight

it will give you an idea of how much you need to spend and if you send with trezor you can add if needed

look at this current image.
it shows 30 sats as the choke point.
30 is kind of filled up and could be too slow.
Ie 40 sats may work
50 sat will be better
60 sat looks to be the lowest for a fast send
1728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2023, 04:21:16 AM
Thanksgiving day $16k #Bitcoin in 2022 vs $37k Bitcoin in 2023 https://t.co/jNquwux9yl

Thats more than 200% rise!!

Hoping to see btc go 70k + in 2024!!

Not hugely invested in btc right now but i think if it hits the 40k mark this year thats a good entry point for me

The last year and a half has been a good entry point too, especially for anyone who had not already been buying all the way dow from $69k to $15,479, and perhaps running out of money to buy MOAR BTC at various points in time.

Anyhow you do you, if you are just getting in, then better late than never, and I suppose that even if some of us might have NOT been able to buy a lot of coins between $15,479 and $25k, we were probably able to pick up some coins in that price range..

My own personal BTC portfolio does not really need too many more BTC, but the last year and a half - especially between around May 2022 and January 2023, there were a lot of great entry points.. and most of that time was below $25k, so there is some value in being able to recognize value, including that the 200-week moving average is really getting close to $29k, but if you think about it, it spent the whole last year and a half gravitating up from around $22k in May 2022 and then getting into the current $29k level which surely was ONLY around a 30% increase for the past 18 months, so I suppose that we could complain that bitcoin was ONLY moving up 20% per year in the past year and a half. which still is really nothing to sneeze about.

By the way, I did recently upgrade both my fuck you status chart (which I explain in this post), and I show the more conservative (possibly overly conservative) update in this post that goes all the way to 2078,


and I finally posted a chart and a first attempt at a somewhat comprehensive explanation about the ways to manage and sustain a kind of perpetual cashing out of BTC[/b], for anyone who might be getting to those maintenance (and desires to cash out a kind of perpetual liquidation) stages of our bitcoin journey... I am quite proud of the substantive presentations of this piece, even though I likely will consider ways to tweak it and even spending decent amounts of time explaining (and referring to it, when relevant)... especially since it is not obvious in and of itself how to read it and how to apply it...   but my hypothetical accounts therein are using a starting point of 21 BTC in each of them starting in September 2022 for that particular hypothetical, but still good to attempt to grapple with the ideas and maybe even plug your own BTC holding numbers into a similar kind of accounting.  

I did not want to show that particular table/chart with my own 0.63 BTC holdings as the hypothetical because I was trying to make the ideas contained therein to be a bit more relevant to higher levels of BTC holders.. and 21 BTC seemed to be a good kind of a starting point for a budget that might even be able to supplement income or be total amounts to live or maybe to fund projects under such guidelines, and some of the budgeting/funding ideas remind me of some of my discussion with Deathwish (about funding developers or something like that) around a year and a half ago when he was seeming to panic (to the extent we believe his story) about his own over-leverage and failure/refusal to build his BTC holdings rather than gambling (and getting greedy) with them, and even some of his seeming involvement with shitcoins and pressing some of his seemingly stubborn ideas on then members of the thread, which some of the panic and overleveraging seemed to have had been the lesson of a lot of BTC holders in mid-to-late 2022.  


Thanksgiving day $16k #Bitcoin in 2022 vs $37k Bitcoin in 2023 https://t.co/jNquwux9yl

Thats more than 200% rise!!

Hoping to see btc go 70k + in 2024!!

Not hugely invested in btc right now but i think if it hits the 40k mark this year thats a good entry point for me
so you rather buy at 40k+ than 37-38k?

why not get at 37 then 38 39 and 40

Yeah, he seems kind of weird, lost and potentially disingenuous to me, too.

By the way Phil, didn't you see my post referring to a couple of HypoPhil's selling on the way up potential budgets (the first chart using 10 BTC and the second one using 5 BTC)?  I am kind of taking your side of the argument regarding some potential value on selling on the way up, yet at the same time, trying to beat you up a wee bit too, just for funzies.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Yeah I read it. I am comfortable at my methods which will mean less profits but greatly reduce losses.

At 66 soon to be 67 and no children I am not looking to leave a legacy to the kids.

My methods were always based on taking enough profit every year to make my life more comfortable.

So I enjoyed increased income from 2013 on every year but one. 2022. I made 2022 a certain loss by selling at 22k .  But I did a dca started it in nov  2022  so I will turn a profit this year if I sell or dont sell.
which is why I ear marked some corn to sell via ladder up.


1729  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Holders Hesitant to Sell Despite Price Surge on: November 25, 2023, 02:52:29 AM
I have a ladder sale set for.

37
40
43
47
50
53
56
59
62
65

1730  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Looking for 3080 & 3090 cards on: November 25, 2023, 02:49:37 AM
China sell many knock-off GPU. BEWARE!

China so rich due to counterfeiting. Otherwise, China be 3 world country. Maybe worse.

why did you post here the thread was more than a year old.
1731  Economy / Economics / Re: Boycotting iSrAEl's product? think again. on: November 25, 2023, 02:00:37 AM
The widespread belief in the boycotting society isn't that these brands belong to Israel, but that they belong to the US and that the US is behind Israel. So it's not only Israel that they are boycotting, but also the US. While I think it's normal for people to boycott any company for any reason and to publicize it, this issue is very open to manipulation. Some groups in society include companies they don't want in these pre-written lists, and these lists spread from hand to hand, and people who don't check them one by one create a perception that they are all bad. Some of the companies on the boycott lists may even be directly owned by the country. Only the naming rights are foreign, all the capital and labor is local, but people still boycott them without knowing or caring that.

So if you boycott USA companies and harm them you are harming the muslim's in the US that work or depend on those companies.

Ten of Thousands of muslims work at those companies in the USA so you harm 10's of thousands of muslims.

Here is a chart of top ten muslim states

New York 724,475
California 504,056
Illinois 473,792
New Jersey 321,652
Texas 313,209
Michigan 241,828
Maryland 188,914
Virginia 169,371
Pennsylvania 149,561
Massachusetts 131,749

top ten states in US  have over 3,213,000 muslims many work in those companies so the boycott harms them.
It might be more effect for every muslim to simply quit those jobs in the USA and Asia muslims send them btc and other coins to survive.

Non violent,  but would be a good message to make companies listen to the plight.


got it from here:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/muslim-population-by-state
1732  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [FREE RAFFLE] 538th ฿ECAUSE I AM STILL IN A GOOD MOOD-CYPHER HODL LOADED BALLET on: November 25, 2023, 01:46:21 AM
66- philipma1957
1733  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the best thing that have ever come to you thanks to BTC on: November 25, 2023, 01:41:58 AM
I got to make a few good friends and help some people.
1734  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Opinion The IRS Is Making Crypto Compliance Impossible on: November 25, 2023, 01:37:28 AM

I do 200 and 250 page returns and some years I make under 15000 usd.

what are all those pages containing exactly? that sounds like something i would want to avoid at all costs to be honest. add an extra 0 onto that 15000 usd and maybe it would make sense then.  Shocked

Quote from: bbc.reporter
There are lawmakers like old Elizabeth Warren who are already beginning to campaign for KYC on every nonhosted wallet.
that's why we really need something like opendime but WAY more cheaper. something that would cost fractions of a penny but you could just hand to someone and they become the new owner of that bitcoin without any record of it on chain. they wouldn't be able to then tax every single "sale" because there wouldn't be a record of them on chain so it would make it almost impossible to regulate.






  I RUN all the mining through coinbase.
  I make payments to 3 partners and myself. (4)
  Since pools bust out. I use at least 2 pools and pull the coins 2 times a month.
  I stack all those pulls and send the coins 1 time a month.


I also sell and take any coin for payment (well any POW coin that coin bases takes)
 So if I do 100 sales in a year that is a lot of entries.
 And when these coins are moved it creates reportable tax events. (you don't always  need to pay but you need to report)
 and I am too small to fully automate.
 and I have the tax background.

here is a typical set of generated info
 So mine 2000 doge Jan 1 to Jan 15  this is income  at least 1 entry for the income and 1 entry for its cost
 Mine 2000 doge Jan 15 to Jan 31     this is income at least 1 entry for the income and 1 entry for its cost

Total of 4000 doge Jan 1 to Jan 31

distribute it 4 ways  4 entries of expense  and cap gain or loss is reported on each one.

2 pools mining doge so double this. And for 1 month just Doge over 24 entries x 12 months so just for doge mining 288 entries.

figure btc 288
and LTC 288

mining at a minimum = 864 entries

that does not include buying with crypto (gpu or asic or pc or parts) normally 25 to 50 buys a year. but many are cc so say 25

now 864+25= 869 entries.

A few trades each month = 12 x 5 = 60  so 869+60 = 929. Last year's return was ½ the size of 2021's

I made good money in 2021
I did meh in 2022 and
I will do meh in 2023

so say 150 pages for taxes 2021 taxes
then 75 pages and 2022 taxes
the 75  pages and 2023 taxes

I can tell you 2021 was good enough to make 2022 and 2023 doable.

But if I don't do better in 2024 I am really tired of buying bitcoin.tax and spending a long time to do my taxes.




1735  Economy / Speculation / Re: What did you think will happen to Bitcoin before January? on: November 24, 2023, 08:52:06 PM
I think 42k by dec 1
I think 48k by jan 1

I think we retrace in Jan 2024
1736  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: My shoppy.gg payments are stuck on: November 24, 2023, 08:49:28 PM
this services are expensive and not worth.




I switched to another autobuy service like shoppy and there is similar problem, btc isn't coming, wtf?

support told me this:

 "After further review, it appears your payout has been delayed due to high cryptocurrency network fees. In order for us to ensure you get the most revenue out of your earnings,
we delay payouts when cryptocurrency fees are higher than usual. Therefore, you can wait for the cryptocurrency network fees to get low (hopefully throughout the week) in order to get paid. "



wtf?? Who else is waiting for weeks to receive the BTC? I don't get what the real issue is.

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,1w,weight

look at the charts and you have an idea if fees are high.  high fees crush btc for business unless you are sending big btc.

sending 200 usd for 200 in btc and paying 100 in fees does not work.

sending 30000 usd for 30000 usd worth of btc and paying 100 in fees kind of works.

there are people trying to move btc payments to LN or to LTC and DOGE.
1737  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Stuck in mempool @ 17.9 for 2 weeks on: November 24, 2023, 08:38:04 PM
I have a similar situation but a bit higher fee. Still my transaction has been sitting in the mempool for like two weeks or so. ViaBTC refuses to accelerate my transaction as they seem to have some size limit and my transaction obviously exceeds that limit. Any suggestions?

P.S. I'm not going to do RBF because I refuse to fuel this monkey token craziness. This is not an emergency, so I can wait.  Cool

if you can wait wait.

what did you pay?

60 sat 80 sat ?

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,1w,weight

looks like 60 should be okay
1738  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: History of garage mining in Russia on: November 24, 2023, 08:33:01 PM
In Russia, the same short circuit protection equipment is used as in European countries, but you understand one thing: these are tools for household use. In mining, they have false positives, so only such standard switches are used in mining
https://www.lavprisel.dk/schneider-ic40n-automatsikring-1pn-13a-hvid-91213?

I see 13A, I scroll back to the camp fire, yeah, makes sense.  Wink
Oh and, 16/25 is more of the new norm.

I live in Bangladesh and the price of electricity is much cheaper than Russia but it is unfortunate that we can't mine here.
Bangladesh, March 2023: The price of electricity is 0.053 U.S. Dollar per kWh for households and 0.085 U.S. Dollar for businesses

Unlimited or it has consumer bracket and different tariffs if exceeding those limits?
Makes little sense for a poor and net importer country to offer highly subsidized unlimited electricity.

So mind if anyone tell me what happened here?

They guy doing the wiring was so drunk he understood overcook instead of overclock.  Wink




hmmm burnt rubber tasty.
1739  Other / Meta / Re: These degenerates don't wanna quit.. is there a way out? on: November 24, 2023, 08:30:43 PM
I've seen several hack cases and it's not even funny how a user would be up, day and night just to create a reputation and it's taken away just in a moment; apparently, it becomes a mask to this deluders - AND NOBODY FUCKING DOES ANYTHING ABOUT IT??

The vulnerability of every account doesn't depend on the people behind them - it depends on the site itself...IF IT'S NOT SAFE, THEN ITS NOT WORTH DOING AT ALL!!!!! I remember a time when I thought of initiating the "secret question" and I was told it doesn't do any good, it only exposes the account the more...  what do I do then? It wouldn't be nice if this happens and my name is soiled for whatever unjust course....
I believe you see everything in here and you'll definitely see this; GIVE US 2FA THEYMOS... !!!!!
Edit: signing a massage on my with my address?? Does that help?

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

if you fully control an address and show it on the website it should help you if you are hacked.

1740  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How Often Do You Check Your Seed Phrase. on: November 24, 2023, 08:17:47 PM
Back in the day when I frequently checked my seedphrase/private key  I accidentally changed a character unknowingly and when I tried to access my wallet I lost control of the wallet just like that..and ever since ,all I do is create wallet, back it up and try get into my account and if all goes smooth it's never again checking on the seedphrase to avoid messing up what I have.

yes when ever you check a seed it is possible to accidentally alter the seed.


say you have electrum wallet

12 word seed

plus an extra 13 word.

it is possible to screw up the 13th word and buy buy coins.
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