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1521  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Sending your BTC what to pay. on: December 06, 2023, 03:26:27 PM
I did this so you can learn to use that website to get an idea of what to pay.

to those that do not understand 200 sat fee cost.

It is 200 x 165 when sending to bc1 address's or  0.00033000 or $14.55 for the least complex send

If I send a 1 input amount to a single bc1 address it is very expensive. and this is the lowest cost send.

It is 200 x 166 when sending to  3>>> address  or 0.0033200 or $14.64


Legacy old school cost the most

It is 200 x 168 when sending to a 1>>> address or 0.0033600 or $14.81

so  bc1 is 165 bytes         segwit  is this type of address
the 3xx is 166 bytes        Legacy segwit is this type of address
and 1xx is 168 bytes        Legacy is this type of address

you best friend if you are looking to move btc coins on the chain is to look at these two links

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,24h,weight



https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,24h,fee

you can get an idea of what to spend or just hodl.

In these times I use DOGE and LTC for Low cost sends.

Some say USE Lightening Network if you have tech skills and are prepped you can try it.

But I have been doing this for over 10 years and prefer Doge and LTC when btc is too costly
1522  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Sending your BTC what to pay. on: December 06, 2023, 03:06:02 PM
go to this website

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,24h,weight


from link above 140 sats has a back log of about 2 blocks so it is iffy that you can get a tx sent at 140 sats









Look at this second link

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,24h,fee





It shows 200 sats as a possible working fee.
1523  Other / Meta / Re: I have no more merit left to give! on: December 06, 2023, 04:18:12 AM
That's right, I currently have a whopping 0 merit left to give  Grin

I have always tried to give credit where credit is due, and you can be sure that if I gave you merit you have earned it!

Eventually when I get more merit I think I will be much more selective in how I distribute it this next time only giving one at a time I think.

I think this is a nice reminder that is the prompting when you are to hand out merits:  " This is what determines your forum rank. You typically cannot lose this merit. You have 0 sendable merit (sMerit) which you can send to other people. There is no point in hoarding sMerit; keeping it yourself does not benefit you, and we reserve the right to decay unused sMerit in the future."

I read your profile and looked at some posts you made.

You may be okay and its the holidays.

So be generous with your merits given to you.
1524  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 06, 2023, 03:28:19 AM
down to 30k-35k

Or up to 50k-55k.

We're still correcting from last year's steep dip.

2024 has been one big correction.

I think a lot of people don’t realize this. My personal belief is that if FTX didn’t defraud everyone out of their Bitcoin and pump everyone’s shitcoins then the price of BTC likely would have gone up as high as $140,000 and would have bottomed around $60,000. So while we may be in a bull market now, we should have never gotten this low in the first place.

That and china kicking the miners out in april.
1525  Other / Meta / Re: (Any Guesses?) Are there many real (unpaid) people still posting here at BCT? on: December 06, 2023, 01:49:58 AM
Do you think only signature participants are willing to post here? Bitcoin is a forum where anyone can post, share their ideas and complain, people are active posting even without the paid campaign way back before. So it's not new, getting paid when posting is just like incentives. You can see them mostly in technical boards where skills and experience  are shared.

op how many of my 43000 posts were done without a paid signature well over 25000 of them. more than 7 years without a signature. and less than 4 with one.

what you don’t realize is you can look at campaigns and see how long someonehas been been doing a campaign sig.
1526  Economy / Speculation / Re: back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. on: December 06, 2023, 01:38:23 AM
I would be really happy for it continue these small pumps, then stabilising for a bit then going up again. Feels like resistance is being built for the future. I do wonder too have miners stopped selling and are hoarding a bit before the halving. 48k by Mar tho Phil sounds more realistic , but who knows maybe 3/15 might be a better day

Well we got close to 45k.

then dropped.

time will tell.
1527  Economy / Speculation / Re: So I guess we sell at $48626 ? on: December 06, 2023, 12:52:51 AM
Well I think this is when we need to make some important decisions for ourself. The price of Bitcoin is up 150% just in this year so there is profits to take from that.
So if we are thinking about taking some profits it is a good time to sell some. I think there is going to be a correction when ETF approval does happen.
And then also for the Bitcoin halving next year.  I am 'bullish' and will not be selling any of my Bitcoin. But I do think there is many investors who will. It is a hard thing to not take 'free money'.
So far I don't have an agenda to sell in the near future, my target is still to try to collect more while I can. Because whatever the level of movement today and facing the end of the year is always a little worrying. Indeed, when you are optimistic that the price is above $40k, this is a kind of manipulation, but for traders it will be quite profitable to divert attention to altcoins, where if the Bitcoin price flattens out, altseason could take over the market for a while.

Of course, majority of us are long term holders, so we don't want to sell when the price is not at all time high. But there could be short term traders here looking for fib numbers and who knows $48k is already big for these kind of traders.
I am planning to sell in case we hit 45k usd to double my chance when time comes bitcoin dumped like what expected before this year ends or after January because I believe that we are lowering or correction before the halving season so yes lets have it this way and not to complete Holding.
Quote
And so it's interesting to see if there will be sellers and then what will be the market reaction to that. Will we continue to buy or there could be some sort of others pushing the sell button as well?
i may have interest to invest more or maybe sell and buy ,  like what many keeps saying as continues holding is not so advisable in our days now.
because the market sometimes goes roller coaster or sometimes making difference to the time we need to sell .
i have been selling on an up ladder 🪜.

no complaints.
1528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 06, 2023, 12:44:21 AM
Where is the helicopter???

On hold until 45k stamp

we get 50505.00 by weekend.

my 48k number seems wrong too low.
1529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 06, 2023, 12:42:19 AM
Interesting article

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-12-05/Bitcoin-breaches-44k-as-BlackRock-secures-seed-capital-for-spot-BTC-ETF.html

"BlackRock sees a high probability that its application will be approved, and Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart say there is a 90% chance that the first spot BTC ETF will be approved by Jan. 10.

Max Keiser, a well-known Bitcoin maximalist, has also caused a stir of speculation by tweeting about “rumors” that the sovereign wealth fund for Qatar – which is responsible for managing the nation’s vast oil and gas-generated wealth – is “looking to buy” $500 billion worth of Bitcoin. Keiser suggested that this could lead to a “$100,000 God Candle” on the BTC chart"

God candle! I like the sound of that!

holy moly that would be so very cool. 😎
1530  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: December 06, 2023, 12:32:46 AM
So finally for a while keeping above 100% and starting to get some lead

Quote
Current Pace:   100.9575%  (1432 / 1418.42 expected, 13.58 ahead)

We might snatch another positive adjustment, and with the price seemingly unstoppable I don't really know if we're going to hit a negative till the halving.
Not only is the price up but due to possible FOMO I guess fees are again up, over 200sat/vb constantly, last blocks
‎2.674
‎2.504
‎2.823

9 btc for a block at $43k, close to $400k
back two and a half months ago, under 200k per block.
So, simple math says 800 exahash in sight?  Grin

ps
No I'm not doing the nuclear reactors thing as probably I would get a headache seeing how much would be needed!


we are pushing 6ph. not enough want more.
1531  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: December 06, 2023, 12:28:53 AM
Are we going to see a mixer that will require KYC verification before sending them your coins? A government run agency can bring such mixers. What do you say?
A mixer in which the government and 'their' blockchain analysis companies already have your data serves no useful purpose, people might say you can use it to hide from friends, family, business partners and other 'ordinary' people, but you don't even need to use a mixer to hide from such people. It is trivial to hide from people who do not have any blockchain knowledge, an exchange is even enough to do that. People use Tor, mixers, CoinJoin and privacy solutions so that their government and blockchain analysis companies can't deanonymize them, in other words, KYC defeats that purpose.

Yes, I think a legal mixer would not only serve no purpose for most people, but it would also demonstrate that nobody wants to use a legal mixer, which would then ironically make the mixer hilariously bad as it wouldn’t get enough use to serve it’s purpose as a proper mixer. It would also end the debate on if people are using them for legal purposes, as nobody would use it…

I think many would do so. If they are og with a pile of clean untaxed coins.

Anyone with an untouched block of 50 coins in 2009-2010 wiulc not want to show the address holding the fifty coins.  There are a lot of old uncashed blocks.
1532  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: December 05, 2023, 04:52:03 AM
The forum is turning into dictatorship. Satoshi would not approve of this
This forum was never a democracy.

satoshi wouldn't give a shit.
it's really sucks

Dude it is not a dictatorship.

I probably suffered the worst signature loose of all.

I had to refund months of a prepaid signature. paid to me in btc and the btc went up 10%

I lost thousands due to this decision.

If btc goes up more like 10,000 plus will be lost to me.

It is not about the earnings. what matters is the forum continues and we pivot as best we can.

theymos is doing a good job it is not easy to operate in the USA. 🇺🇸 laws are fucked up.


Here is a simple example you are 18 your girlfriend is 17 you drive over the george washington bridge while she is giving you a handjob. On one side of the bridge you are not a pedophile on the other side of the bridge you are a pedophile. Age of consent is 17 in NY and 18 in NJ.


so it seems off topic but it is not it illustrates how laws differ.

We have zero idea of what he was told. and we had a federal agency get tagged by moron dt members.

not clever on their part.

Directions to this bridge? Kidding…

I’m sorry to hear you took a hit from a prepaid campaign. Surely you’d think they’d be willing to work with you if you made the situation clear to them. I’ve been in similar situations though. I once had a customer not pay me for almost two years and then finally give me a lump sum in BTC at the peak of the market which by the time the funds were sold on an exchange took such a big hit that it basically all ended up going to taxes. Sometimes people just don’t think how their actions effect you.

You got me to laugh 😂 thanks.
1533  Economy / Speculation / Re: So I guess we sell at $48626 ? on: December 05, 2023, 04:42:57 AM
Because the 68.2 Fibonacci level is always right. Even though in 2021 we broke higher to $69K that area originally had a significant pullback. Also the $48000 area is where that pivot is which was the high on March 2022. Not investment advice but its either a coincidence or this fib level is crazy accurate.

2017


2019


2021


2023-2024


amazing how close to my threads number.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5472517.0

48173 is my number

1534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2023, 04:36:54 AM
Christmas price prediction: $55,000  Shocked.    okay

End of year price prediction: $65,000   Shocked   okay

2024 ATH price prediction: $179,000  Shocked    too low bro 222k +

2 of 3 we agree !

Since when did we have our bull run in and even year.. such as 2024?.. and gosh don't we need to save some blow-off top for some part of 2025?  I know some members have even suggested that the 2025 bull run needs to come earlier in the year.. and not sure about that, just like I don't buy the idea that the 2021 top was April rather than what my lying eyes told me that it was November.

I am not going to claim to know exactly when these waves might play out. .and surely the past seems to be much easier to predict than the future (even though we sometimes don't even agree about those kinds of things), and I am not even much of a stickler for the precision of the 4-year fractal.. like some of us in these here parts.. even though the four-year fractal has been playing out fairly tightly.. so far... .. but how long can that last, really? 

I doubt that I am personally affected very much whether we get our top in 2024, 2025, or 2026.... I mean a matter of whether in some variations that I might end up shaving off 8%, or 10% or 12%..... or maybe you never know I might go crazy and shave off a bit higher, but even I have difficulties imagining anything close to 20%.. that seem just crazy.. Probably not going to happen.. .  And in the end, what I do might not really end up being that big of a difference. .no matter which way it ends up playing out.. . even though surely it would be better to get some actual notice in advance.. which that never seems to happen, either... not actual and constructive notice rather than then just wannabe sorcerer notice, which surely is not very reliable in the whole scheme of things.

Well if you are right we will retreat in price early next year. But eft could be a golden swan.

remember 2021 had china kicking the miners out which tore the top off in April killing off my 70k in may guaranteed prediction.

Should be fun.
1535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warming warning of the BTC, ETH & the LTC Cryptos upcoming halving on: December 05, 2023, 04:30:20 AM
The ATH of ETH was also on the day when Bitcoin hit its ATH. But it's largely the price of Bitcoin that actually propelled ETH to its ATH on November 10, 2021. The ATH of ETH in USD is not its ATH in terms of BTC value. But still there's a bullish potential considering that BlackRock and other Bitcoin spot ETF applicants were also applying for Ethereum spot ETF.

Litecoin has its own halving with a different schedule. And it already happened last August 6 this year. There wasn't much effect of the halving to the price of LTC. But still when the market turns bullish next year, Litecoin might be one of those that will benefit.

the op made no sense about  LTC..

that is long past.


I no longer follow eth I do not know what a ½ ing for it means.


Or does he just mean the BTC ½ ing will alter the other two?
1536  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: December 04, 2023, 11:55:56 PM
you can see trends that make sense.  

we were -7 blocks we are + 11 blocks

you can correlate it to the price going from 388xx to 422xx

but it is small not huge the small it is the more likely it is noise not a true trend.


144 blocks set to be made in a day using 1 million machines doing 500eh =  2023

144 blocks set to be made in a day using 100k machines doing 21th =  2012

we used to have a lot of variance back in 2012 to 2013


120 block days followed by 200 block days filled by 130 block days

we do not have 200 block days and we rarely go under 120.

but if I say it is always a prefect six sided die being rolled a lot to get 144 blocks

(think of the difficulty software doing the perfect rolls)

as the diff goes up more rolls are needed for a block so is the mechanism generating flatter variance.


Ie 100,000 spins of a die = average to hit a block due to a diff of 100k
vs 1 trillion spins of a die = average to hit a block due to a diff of 1t

or is the random software generator looking for the block  not acting that way.

My small stupid mind has never fully understood this aspect of random software generation.

I know that we set limits on the software saying 1 trillion or 65 trillion hits a block

but as diff expands do we even out variance since we approach infinity. ( I know we are never getting to infinity)



I keep thinking the larger diff gets and to more machine running it should flatten variance a little.
1537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price $45k by ending of 2023: AI prediction on: December 04, 2023, 11:33:06 PM
Six AI chatbots forecast bitcoin to reach $45k by December 31 2023. From the  article the test was first carried out June this year which it was predicted that the price will get to $45k by the end of the 2023 year, and on the 3rd of this month of November 2023 another query test was carried out using 6 different AI chatbots to inquire what the price of bitcoin could be by end of the year and they all gave predictions that points to $45k at most. And the most intriguing thing about this which caught my attention is that it was same price prediction range it gave sometime June this year when the first test was conducted.

Quote
Four months ago, Bitcoin.com News engaged with six generative AI chatbots, prompting them to forecast bitcoin’s value at the close of 2023. The collective consensus of these AI systems anticipated BTC to land between $40,000 and $50,000 by the conclusion of the year. With the year now winding down to its final two months, we repeated the experiment. The updated predictions from the AI chatbots have arrived slightly more conservative than the June estimates.
So I decided to bring it to the forum to know about what other forum members think about this AI prediction. Is it a prediction you can rely on or it's just one of those common bitcoin  price predictions of the decade we are used to from different angles, is there anything special about this one .


So they read my Nov 1 thread and riffed on it. Not very impressed.

My thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5472517.0

my predictions


"If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1 we got to 42431 dec 4

42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1.

opinons and guesses"


so far nailed it pretty well
1538  Other / Meta / Re: Signature campaign as a creation of bitcointalk on: December 04, 2023, 11:11:35 PM
Don't you know that signature campaign can be abolish in this forum and bitcointalk will continue to exist, because I know quite well that what interests people much to the forum is the signature campaign advert that fetching people money, so let us not concentrate much on signature campaign because as theymos ban mixers it can happen one day that signature campaign be terminate, the aspect of if the signature campaign can be supportive to other social media except bitcointalk, yes, and it can happen only if the social media make a provision of display of signature campaign, so that's what I really want us to understand about it. And besides I have been hearing that theirs other places that support signature campaign.

You are correct, but many people earn a living doing those campaigns and it did spread BTC around the world.

So it is a true hit if they end the signatures entirely.
1539  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: December 04, 2023, 10:58:47 PM
so they should encourage mixers and give bitcointalk the ability to advertise mixers like a mofo.

then contact the mixers to find crooks.
If government wants a mixer that alerts them on "crooks", they'll have to create their own honeypot mixer.

It is almost certainly leading the forum towards the introduction of KYC
I don't share this fear. KYC would leave only spammers with bought identities on Bitcointalk, all good users will abandon it.

Quote
So many loopholes were found in the implementation of this censorship, so it will be very interesting to see how the moderators manage this in practice.
I guess Newbies will get banned, and users who have something to lose won't risk testing the boundaries of the new rules.

Quote
Now I even think that the investigative authorities do not approve of this decision, because one source of information that they used during the investigation eludes them.
Lol. What if they were promoting a honeypot mixer here, and now can't talk about it anymore?

3. The service does not collect KYC-type info from all users.
It is even possible to register on Google without KYC. It's a bit unbelievable to me that this is a theymos statement.  Huh
From a regulator's perspective, I'd say this makes sense. If a mixer follows KYC procedures, they can either catch the criminals or criminals won't use it.

so if the hundred or so people that had sinbad signatures get a reward for attracting criminals to use sinbad why would not  they get some of the confiscated funds.
Lol. I don't think "attracting criminals" is a goal for law enforcement.

mixers are one of the only ways to hide non taxable coins.

if a guy is holding 50 coins from a block he hit  in 2011. He wants  to cash a few in 2011 that block was worth under 500 bucks and he reported hitting the block in 2012 paid his tax.In the USA 🇺🇸 if he held it to now he owes no tax.

If he wants to cash some of it he should not need to reveal the rest as it is not taxable.
I don't get this: if you send your non taxable coins through a mixer, how do you prove it's non taxable? I like the blockchain evidence that proves those coins were old. Where I live, everything is taxable, but that's not the point here.

Someone can make for exemple make a signature design with no link. He writes "Go to visit abcd.mixer"
People just have to open a new tab and search for the domain name

In a post, the same can be done, it's fine since I don't directly post their URLs
That's not a loophole: an URL is still an URL even if it's not clickable. So posting "abcd.mixer" won't be allowed.

loyce a 50 coin block hit in 2011 was worth 500 dollar

a 50 coin coins are now worth 2.1 million bucks.

So our guy has a 50 coin block he is usa citizen he reported the hit in 2011

paid tax on it say 20% or 100.

USA law has a tax record of you owning 50 BTC at a tax basis of 500 for it.

You did your 2012 taxes and showed you have it.

Now it is 2023. you want a Tesla  you move 3 coins directly to coin base

coinbase knows you have 47 coins from that block. you do not want coinbase to know

that.

In theory only the feds (USA) know you have the coin cause you did report it in 2012.

So you send 3 coins to an address then send them to a mixer then send the coins to whom ever.   you report to usa fed government.

yeah the coins have 3 x 10 = 30 cost basis and the rest is taxable 3 x 41990 = 119970 to be exact.

you kept you remaining 47 coins hidden or private if it is a legit mixer.

and you fully comply with usa IRS rules.

Basically if in the USA this is close to the only legit way to use a mixer.

Much like I write a 100k check  from a 2.1 million bank account the receiver of the funds does not know I have 2 million sitting.
1540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2023, 10:43:59 PM
Christmas price prediction: $55,000  Shocked.    okay

End of year price prediction: $65,000   Shocked   okay

2024 ATH price prediction: $179,000  Shocked    too low bro 222k +



2 of 3 we agree !
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