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2241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2023, 11:45:05 PM
please note my 2015 to 2023

pattern set.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5472517.0

Those numbers could easily happen.  Would be nice way to finish out 2023.
2242  Economy / Speculation / back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. on: November 01, 2023, 11:35:53 PM
2015 Sept up 2.82%
2015 Oct.  up 31.92%
2015 Nov  up  21.44%
2015 Dec  up  13.75%

here we are 8 years later

2023 Sept 3.95%
2023 Oct 28.51%
2023 Nov ?
2023 Dec ?


I looked at the post below to come up with my 2015 to 2023 comparison.

will we repeat this?

It's funny to see that October is the most successful month for Bitcoin. This has probably already become firmly anchored in people's minds, so that all market participants act accordingly. A self-fulfilling prophecy in that sense.
Yes, this October was no exception and bitcoin didn't just rise, it broke resistance that couldn't be broken all of 2023. But I doubt about the psychology that it happened naturally, September was also green, although it was almost always red.
Naturally or not, initially it was the effect of Cointelegraph giving invalid news about ETF acceptance that FOMO occurred and many bought Bitcoin at this time so that it broke the $30k resistance, then indeed dumped after the news was not true.
But the next effect is like a snowball that makes market conditions better and until now it is able to hold at $34k + +.

October was a green month and we are about to enter November which in the last 2 years has always shown a drastic decline.
Will the trend change?
we will see.





If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1
42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1.

opinons and guesses?
2243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin October Month Performance on: November 01, 2023, 11:25:33 PM
Have you noticed that OP is trying to make it look like every October is green, but there's a reason why the list is lacking a few years, mainly
2012 -10%
2014 -12%
2018 -4%

a +5% in 2022 is actually like no move at all. Bitcoin experiences moves like this almost every month so getting a + or - 5% can be a statistical error.
Don't get too excited.

The market reacts so much to the slightest piece of news about ETF and Gensler that you can get +10 or -10% this month without any real news about bitcoin.

Well this was the most bearish post o the first two pages. I am glad it ended up being as wrong as is was.

At Op why not do a November thread.   you know what I think I will do one.
2244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2023, 10:57:14 PM
Let us hope $35k sticks this time and builds some solid support.

yeah I think we are on our way bob.
2245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2023, 10:54:45 PM
Locked and loaded. Let's see 40k by months end!

we need 36k. but i am happy so far.

we are floating above 35k sideways at 35k and then a grind up and over to 36k in a day or two is good.
2246  Economy / Economics / Re: Isn't Fiat the Real Ponzi on: November 01, 2023, 04:33:51 PM
I've seen many blog posts describing bitcoin as a ponzi scheme, but looking at the current inflation of fiat it now looks like a Ponzi. Don't know who is the beneficiary in this kind of fiat Ponzi. The earlier generation had enough to buy with few amounts that can't buy anything reasonable today. I also saw Elon in a tweet saying or calling fiat a Ponzi scheme. People suffer to get fiat and lose it on high food prices and products. In a Ponzi, everyone end up losing money, same with fiat. A good number of people around me complain of not being able to purchase product with a fair sum of money they feel is big.
The blogs that call bitcoin a ponzi scheme simply don't know the difference between bitcoin and altcoins. It is common to see different altcoins been presented to the public as a scheme to that brings instant and high returns on investment.

A Ponzi scheme is an investment that is built to deceive investors. My country's fiat currency could be said to be a legalized Ponzi scheme because politicians will always make promises of how they will make the currency stronger and more valuable. One politician in my country promised to make our local currency to be equal to the USD. Many people believed him and kept their investments in the local currency. Today the currency has lost almost half of its value and the money is gradually becoming worthless.

Not the definition of a Ponzi but it is the definition of a scam.

a scam would be the master set

a ponzi scheme is a subset of it.

Whatever you country is I am sure you leaders are scamming but not via ponzi.  It is a subtle difference.

By now it has become obvious that all countries are just kicking the can down the road. making all fiat worth less with bigger inflation on the picture.
2247  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: "change password frequently" on: November 01, 2023, 04:26:34 PM
I am admittedly no cybersecurity expert, but I think it's dumb, dumb, dumb--and when employers or various websites require that you do it, it's so goddamn annoying.

And I agree with you that (in the vast majority of cases I'd imagine) choosing a strong enough password the first time should obviate the need to keep changing it.  It always made me wonder if the requirement to periodically switching passwords increases the frequency of forgetting/losing them.  Some folks have all of their passwords written down in a single place, like a notebook or in multiple places, and I'm pretty sure that can get chaotic.

Can you imagine if every single thing you had to have a password for required that?  I think my brain would explode; this issue isn't a major pet peeve in my life, but it's one that's bugged me in the past.  Thanks for beginning my morning with some low-level aggravation, OP.  (lol)


As long as the password is really long and obviously not

abcdefghi9876543210

you really do not need to switch it very much.
2248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2023, 02:21:49 AM
@jjg

I-bonds
silver
btc

for now.

I have hodl the ibonds
I have stacked more btc and hodled it
I have stacked a bit more silver and hodl it.

plus lots and lots and lots of gear almost all sha-256 based s19s and up.

So it was never i-bonds or btc for me.

it was both.
2249  Economy / Economics / Re: Biting more than i can chew. How can i do better? on: November 01, 2023, 02:14:23 AM
The mistakes you make in your twenties may be costly. Therefore, as long as you are still young and do not have obligations such as starting a family, supporting your family, or any obligations such as real estate debts, student debts, etc. it is better to think seriously about your financial future. Always try to reduce your expenses and control your expenses. Your instincts are to pay yourself first by investing and leave the surplus to pay the bills. If there is anything left, you can buy what you need and do not do the opposite, meaning that you do not start buying unnecessary things, then necessities, then investing. If it is difficult, look for a mentor, whether it be a psychological counselor or an economic expert.

At op listen to this guy.

You made mistakes in your 20’s you seem to still be jn your 20’s.

This means unlike me at 66 time is on your side.

if we both live to 80. I have 14 years
you likely have over 50 years.

So make some long term plans.

Dca some cash every payday. hodl it
Dca some Btc every payday. hodl it

Come back to this thread and report how well you hodled the DCA in cash and in BTC.

If you can dca some cash and some btc every payday for a year in a row and hodl it you will be on your way.

I dca btc every week.
I also mine coins.

I let them stack long times years and years.

I did not do this with Btc back in 2012.

I did do it with doge and turned 2000 into 85000.  Could of been more but my hands weakened and I sold too soon. Still making the 85 k was nice.
2250  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for deflation in 2023" on: November 01, 2023, 01:20:38 AM
I would welcome deflation because of the reasons of inflation that I have witnessed and I think that it would be a good time to accumulate BTC because the prices of daily living would have been reduced, thus enabling more funds to be channeled to other areas.

Currently, the interest rates are higher than normal and I believe the prices of commodities would reduce but interest rates may linger for a duration because once prices go up, it's always hard for it to come down.


I have been around a long time. You see some deflation in electronics and tech. but most everything else just goes up and 🆙.
2251  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How will it affect your life if bitcoin price comes to $1 million per bitcoin? on: November 01, 2023, 12:19:11 AM
So if I had a million  today right now it would be nice.
After tax it would be about 600k.
I would move to a different house. sell my 2.5 year old car and get a new car.



2252  Other / Politics & Society / Will Putin's Alleged death boost the world's economy? on: October 31, 2023, 11:25:58 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-is-dead-after-rumored-illness-understudy-recognized-as-stand-in-president-kremlin-source-say/ar-AA1jaGGz?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6f422a352cf442b09ab2b221eed58873&ei=10


A Kremlin source alleged that Vladimir Putin died over the weekend, and a body double has been officially recognized as the president of Russia, RadarOnline.com has learned.

The report follows rumors that Putin, 71, suffered a heart attack in recent weeks and was living out his final days in solitude while the alleged doppelgängers carried out official duties.


So if true how will this affect the worlds economy?


My guess is the 'fake' Putin's will be puppets and the war goes on business as usual. I voted no.

I modded this as people may get heated over it.

The war angle means people die and the economy struggles.

But if he is really dead and we do get a new leader things could shift bigly.

2253  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 31, 2023, 09:17:25 PM
Sorry for the lame question, but is bitstamp still legit?

I didn't sodl anything for eons and now I'm trying to get my very old bitstamp account to work, but they are asking for too many shit and on their reddit some people seems to have they account been locked FOR MONTHS for kyc verification and such, and this frightens me a bit.

Also, I was very stupid and deposited some funds BEFORE unlocking my account, deposits were the only unlocked thing and this is a bad sign too.

I used to think bitstamp was the most legit exchanger around but so was gox, I know they didn't turn full scam but I'm very out to date about the bitcoin ecosystem and i'm wondering if there are some known problems...


Never put your money on an exchanger

So bitstamp has locked down? Not good at all.

I think they are still legit but I'm getting some red flags and getting worried, and on bitstamp official reddit (2 users online) I got an instant downvote and no responses, so another red flag. But only 48 hours expired so I'm still hoping it will be solved asap, I will keep updated

There is no such thing as red flags for Bitstamp, stop the panic FUD.

KYC is pretty much the standaard. You suffer anxiety because you need to search for the required info from years ago but you are to lazy looking for it.

Yeah, I suppose I'm just anxious, but they did not ask any kyc info, just locked my account for "suspicious activity" (that was probably triggered by me logging after a long period of inactivity and from different devices and locations).

I'm not spreading FUD, just asking if there's a general sentiment of FUD around about bitstamp, because maybe it's a known issue I don't know about because I rarely read this forum or other bitcoin communities nowadays.

Just follow the steps and let us know if they pay you.
2254  Economy / Economics / Re: Let's imagine you were the president of your country, How would your Economic on: October 31, 2023, 08:43:34 PM
The reason why I bought this topic is because of the matter arising today in the economic system, I no maybe this topic may sound like shit or may never come to pass, but let's keep that aside the way cost prices are now in some countries is like hell, so I am still asking if you were the president for a year in your country, how would you treat your country economic growth what will be your plans as the supervisor over the country and how would your economic budget look like.
The reason why I bought this topic is sometimes we merely talk about the future economic systems maybe we could just outline some key points on how you would rule your country in the future of the ecosystem.
Note this!!!!
Sometimes dreams do come to pass☑️

This reminds me of my "dictator of the USA thread".

Presidents are too limited. So if you want real change you need shit ton of power.

But basically if you are in charge you will meet and greet people that will resist whatever you do.

So it would be really hard to get it done correctly.
2255  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Why Bitcoin needs block filters on: October 31, 2023, 08:39:22 PM
I might get jumped on for this but I really see it as an answer in search of a question.

1st you need people who care about privacy, and as we see time and time again, it's a small, but very vocal segment of the BTC community. If you really want privacy for your crypto transactions then use one of the privacy alts.

2nd you need a bit more powerful HW and more bandwidth with BIP 157/158 then with a regular non private SPV wallet. Nor a big deal, but still worth a mention.

3rd Just on a personal level I am getting REALLY tired with the perpetual it's too expensive to run a node BS. Yes in many parts of the world $125 is more money then a lot of people will ever be able to spend on one.
These are not the people who care about privacy. For the most part, they want to quickest and simplest way to get a TX done. Privacy is way down on the list.

-Dave

See the reply above by davef . 

fuck btc privacy it does not exist.

Furthermore if you are for btc privacy you are against btc adaptation as the governments of the world are not going to want that.

If you want to be sneaky the alt  m....o is what you need.

As for running full nodes.

it is cheap to run one. I did a thread on a linux laptop  my cost was zero an office was tossing it. I put in a 2tb ssd ($85) I downloaded the whole chain in about 16 hours. This should be good for around 3-5 years.
2256  Other / Meta / Re: Investigation and action required. Unusual forum moderation. on: October 31, 2023, 08:18:30 PM
I would argue that even self-mod threads that Ratimov cleaned out should be restored and locked, if that's not done already.
The self-moderated topics were not restored. At least the risk was known when I posted in there (I just didn't expect it).

To me it seems that a self-mod OP going on a rampage and emptying multiple threads for no reason should be dealt with in a similar way as a moderator on a rampage would be dealt with. I think in the latter case deleted content would be restored. And the person would likely be stripped of the delete-other-users-posts privilege.

Years ago April fools joke was done by theymos the forum became infected for April fools day.

I got really angry over this really angry and I starting to delete one of my self modded threads.

I wish I had not reacted that way but I did. I got 30 or 40 pms and realized My anger overcame me. I did not delete any more threads.

Now I wonder if mr r has had something anger him and it is why he is doing it.

Yeah my wife had 2x pneumonia from covid and almost died she still suffers to this day from nasal and lung issues. It was not an easy disease for us. So I reacted poorly.

Maybe Mr R is in distress over Ukraine Vs Russia war and has reacted poorly in his behavior.

2257  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 31, 2023, 08:03:17 PM
Sorry for the lame question, but is bitstamp still legit?

I didn't sodl anything for eons and now I'm trying to get my very old bitstamp account to work, but they are asking for too many shit and on their reddit some people seems to have they account been locked FOR MONTHS for kyc verification and such, and this frightens me a bit.

Also, I was very stupid and deposited some funds BEFORE unlocking my account, deposits were the only unlocked thing and this is a bad sign too.

I used to think bitstamp was the most legit exchanger around but so was gox, I know they didn't turn full scam but I'm very out to date about the bitcoin ecosystem and i'm wondering if there are some known problems...


Never put your money on an exchanger

So bitstamp has locked down? Not good at all.
2258  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 31, 2023, 07:54:37 PM
I think the future of energy involves Fusion. But, it seems to me that despite there being several good investments in this regard, the projects are progressing very slowly. At least that's the feeling I have. It seems that there is no great interest in this type of energy production being implemented.

Europe has one of the leading fusion energy projects - ITER. But, not even with the recent energy problems, due to the war in Ukraine, has there been an increase in incentive to accelerate the development of ITER.

Therefore, there is a lot of advocacy about reducing pollution, but in reality it is because it is popular, and not because there is a real interest in this regard.

Well we are all going to die.  So lots of ways to deal with that fact.

I for one can't understand how we as humanity do not have many bases on the moon as a back up plan.

So do we as a world group of people carefully manage and act as a team to make shit better for us all.

Yeah sure.

Logically we could have a ton of nuke power plants and dump all the waste in Antartica.

But with so many opposing beliefs we as a world group basically say fuck it and do our own thing.
2259  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is your one memory related to Bitcoin that you want to forget? on: October 31, 2023, 05:43:22 PM
I made more good moves than bad. But truthfully I never believed in it from 2012 to 2017 monster rally.

So I could have grabbed 100 coins easy peasy in 2012 or early 2013.

Even if I dumped 50 of them in 2013 nov holding 50 of them I would have cashed for 65k
and if I dumped 25 in dec 2017 I would have cashed for 480k

and if I dumped 15 of them at 69k I would have had 1 million

and still have 10 coins at this moment.


I did not earn 1.545 mill and hold 10 btc. But I would say it could have.

I also did earn 200k and have a lot of gear right now along with some coin.


So I would argue I have  ⅛ of what was possible for me to have done.

 But I would have had to believe in BTC back in 2012 more then some mining of it.
2260  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for deflation in 2023" on: October 31, 2023, 05:18:08 PM
Higher energy prices lead to higher prices for the rest of the products and for shipping. For prices to fall and deflation to occur, there must be overproduction of at least oil, but the oil cartel has reduced oil production. Therefore, I personally do not see any conditions for the onset of so-called deflation at the moment


It's not that simple because overproduction also has a cost. If you increase production, the producer has to spend more for more employees, spend more for logsitics, more output, more for storage, which are also inflationary. Plus never forget that there never was inflation in any form that did not expand the money supply. It has ALWAYS been a monetary phenomenon.

Well you did push a btc rise in the opening post so you were spot on with that.

Eggs got cheap by me. but most every other food went up in price. Along with many other items.
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