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2261  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 31, 2023, 03:36:40 PM
Sent neuroticfish 0.001 btc

bc1qd.................................2763.

paid 7 sats vs 11 asked for.

 lets see how long it takes to clear.

I will not reveal his full btc addy for his privacy

They came through last night. I see now that, oddly enough for week time, even 3 sat/vByte would have been enough.
Thank you, sir.

To this day I do not understand why there are not more nuclear power plants around.

Deaths caused by them are so small compared to the main power sources

Well, if there would be more of those, there would be much more deaths too, I guess.
But the truth is that somehow people and media seems to not pay so much attention to accidents in mining areas (occupational hazard) and seems to somewhat inflate the fear of nuclear plants.
Imho the bigger problem with nuclear plants is the fact the waste is not stored/disposed "by the book", instead it's dropped to poor countries; the death toll may be huge, but nobody will actually know or care much about it.

Still, with current rush for cleaner energy (country wise), I see only 3 real directions:
[1] hugely improve storage/batteries and other related infrastructure (may need some breakthrough in chemistry and physics)
[2] make more dams, with quite high costs (money, deaths, relocation)
[3] use nuclear power

On short/medium term nuclear seems to be the obvious choice.
Of course, smaller businesses can go on their own solar, but I see that somehow a niche.


Solar is a help not a full fix.

If all the USA was properly solarized basically 35% reduction in using fuel for power is achievable.
Without going battery route.
Just close to perfect grid tied. 

2262  Economy / Economics / Re: Does Using a Credit Card Demonstrate Financial Literacy? on: October 31, 2023, 03:33:33 PM
Do you believe that someone who exclusively uses cash for their purchases rather than credit cards is demonstrating financial literacy? Many argue that people tend to be financially reckless when using credit cards, often forgetting that it involves borrowing money. In various Netflix TV shows depicting individuals in debt seeking advice from financial advisors, the most consistent suggestions for getting out of debt are usually to cut up their credit cards and transition to making cash payments.

Individuals who avoid using credit cards tend to have a higher probability of being debt-free, showcasing financial discipline, and experiencing greater satisfaction compared to those reliant on credit cards. What are your thoughts on this stance?

If you use your credit card properly they will make money for you.

I am 66 years old and have paid under 100 usd in credit card interest since 1985.  I have earned 50,000 usd in points. Used for trips mining gear gift card etc.

So basically CC's are a source of income for me. 

If you can't do this don't .
if you can do this and don't do it you are not using your good credit properly.

It is pretty much this simple.

2263  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 31, 2023, 01:41:08 PM
yeah 3 major accidents in 60 plus years world wide .

One of them was caused by a major earthquake in Japan. Likely a good as any record.

Coal is some nasty ass shit.  I am sitting in a home that uses 4 high end air filters due to NJ being at the end of coal ally

Some place on this site a did an illustration of how coal pollutes NJ.
found a screen shot showing the path of coal polluted are on Imgur that I did 8 years ago

2264  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Are dices for generating seed words fair? on: October 31, 2023, 03:44:21 AM
That was a very thorough analysis. But I do disagree that there might only be a 1 deg C temp difference.
I've seen you do this in more topics: you make a ridiculous claim, and stick to it despite overwhelming evidence of being wrong. Your first statement was there's a temperature difference between sides of the coin. I debunked that. Now you're saying the coin can get warmer. Nobody says a coin doesn't get warm if you hold it in your hand, but that's irrelevant for flipping the coin.

yeah but do you agree the flipper of the coin must be blindfolded and toss the coin down a laundry chute into different room.

and a second person records the results

In the second room.

this eliminates the issue that the tosser can subconsciously influence and corrupt the von Neumann algorithm method.

2265  Economy / Economics / Re: No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream? on: October 31, 2023, 03:19:06 AM
Yeah, because everyone will either buy used fossil fuel cars or buy new electric cars that are refueled with electricity that was produced by burning fossil fuels. Unless we discover a different way to generate electricity, we will come to the conclusion that our energy demands outstrip our energy production. The discovery would have to be something amazing though, like cold fusion.

I mean you can try slapping a solar panel on your Tesla but it won't generate enough electricity in a day to move a car.

2035 seems optimistic. Especially with with all the undiscovered oil reserves. Who needs a life-nurturing environment when you can save money?

The current EV technology causes more damage to the environment when compared to the gasoline vehicles. Mining Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel has devastated ecologically sensitive areas of the world. If you have a doubt regarding this, then please visit Norilsk or the Democratic Republic of Congo. And it is not just the batteries. Most of the electricity that is used to run these EVs come from burning fossil fuels - natural gas, or even more polluting fuels such as coal, lignite or naphtha. EVs seems to be more polluting than gasoline vehicles at this point.

Mining coal has destroyed entire mountains in china 🇨🇳 and in the usa 🇺🇸.

Not that mining lithium cobalt or nickel is clean.
2266  Other / Meta / Re: Investigation and action required. Unusual forum moderation. on: October 31, 2023, 02:27:03 AM
Xal0lex would you help us to understand how you found the topics/posts to clean up if they were not reported?

If you go to the root of the Russian section, you will see a list of topics at the bottom. So I saw two trash topics in this list. Naturally, I deleted them. And then I decided to go through the whole list and found a lot of such topics. Again, I deleted several topics. And then I realized that something was wrong and that it looked very suspicious, so I didn't touch those topics anymore.

I read all the posts and waited for a reply by you. My thoughts were you may have been tricked by mr r.

I just check the post after yours and its from mr t. his conclusion was exactly what I thought may have happened.

Hoping that mr r lets us know why he does what he does. as it put you in a shitty spot for sure.
2267  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will $BTC soar beyond 35K or dip below? 🚀📉 on: October 31, 2023, 01:59:06 AM
At the op by replying over and over with your link included you shit on your own thread.
So people will end up not replying to it. You will lose our interest.
I let out a witch cackle when I read this post and I'm reading this thread at the office so it feels awkward but I don't care, this made me laugh.
I know right, the people seems attracted to bitcoin etf and yes it is very attracted but any screenshoot or simple news can make the bitcoin price up and down for a couple of hour. I think there is a person behind these all news lately and maybe trading before made any news.
Of course there is a person behind all of this but I don't think it's their intention solely to get the bitcoin prices to go up, it's just probably a byproduct of what they're doing and I believe that if there's an entity behind that really wants to control the price movement of the market, Whale reports would be coming which is probably the only way that someone can manipulate the market and so far, there's no talk about that despite the prices going up.

Good 👍 always trying to help someone smile.

As for my price pick for this year 45k but 42-48k range works for me mentally.

Its tough to know what to do at times but I am thinking we are in decent shape.
2268  Economy / Economics / Re: Isn't Fiat the Real Ponzi on: October 31, 2023, 01:54:05 AM
I've seen many blog posts describing bitcoin as a ponzi scheme, but looking at the current inflation of fiat it now looks like a Ponzi. Don't know who is the beneficiary in this kind of fiat Ponzi. The earlier generation had enough to buy with few amounts that can't buy anything reasonable today. I also saw Elon in a tweet saying or calling fiat a Ponzi scheme. People suffer to get fiat and lose it on high food prices and products. In a Ponzi, everyone end up losing money, same with fiat. A good number of people around me complain of not being able to purchase product with a fair sum of money they feel is big.

Be definition it is not and can not be a ponzi.  But in reality if a country gets in a hyperinflation cycle it looks like fiat was a ponzi for that country.

I think of fiat as fuel for the military industrial complex.

I am 66 and I can remember 30 plus wars since I was a kid.

Nicholas Cage’s movie “the lords of war” shows the relationship of fiat and weapons.

2269  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: mempool on: October 31, 2023, 01:35:21 AM
The op has not replied after the one post he made. I suggest we leave this alone and wait for him to let us know what has happened.
2270  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has anybody expected this? on: October 31, 2023, 12:30:16 AM
Expect? No I didn't but at the same time I was well aware of the massive potential of bitcoin to see a big jump as I talked about it recently here. This is not even as big as a jump as I expected though, we still have a long way to go to reach a more realistic bitcoin price.

Is as if you're expecting something much bigger than what we're seeing, $34k as the current price is something big compare to July to September, some people almost thought this year isn't going to bring a price that would surpass $30k and many people have given up on the reminder of this year, because from the way it started nobody expected to see Bitcoin price at $34k and with the way it stayed at $25k got many discouraged to even say anything positive about it.
If this month can give us this positive price then I think November would be much more better in showing us green. But my main concern is why has it not yet gotten to $35k? going up to $34k and back down to $33k? What are we not getting?
I still think whenever it starts getting up to $35-$36k I feel that would be the time we see Bitcoin climbing to $40k, let's say from a new week or Saturday.

Any one that thought we would not get to 30k this year was basically believing in a full BTC FAIL.

Simply look at the gear going on line and watch the mining investment it all pointed and still points to higher
money kept gaining into gear look at chart a diff of 35t has turned into a diff of 62t. huge money came in via mining.  Now investing money is catching up to it. I see 45k in December.

2271  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 31, 2023, 12:04:15 AM
Not sure I understand the logic here, but I would appreciate a little bit more explanation, "Explain Like I'm Five" would do. :

Bitmain knowing their new line of models is a failure, not that it didn't happen earlier, they realize that if they don't sell this subpar gear in a short time everyone will know what failure rates they are to expect so they cut prices to the limit of profitability scaring small resellers into dumping their also at cheaper prices.
There have been a lot of manufacturers who cut prices out of the blue on several smartphones, hard drives and even cars just for customers to realize afterwards that the product was a flop.

The devil is in the detail, how much did they spend to get the 2.85 cents/kWh? anyone can achieve that if the initial investment is to be ignored if your power rate is 10 cents / kWh you sell your power back at 5 cents, and you have 6 hours of sunlight, all you have to do is generate 7 times what you consume and you will get "free power".

I think the name is misleading, just as that "carbon free", CleanSparks has nothing to do with solar other than showing solar panels on their brochures, their two data center expansions in Georgia are fully nuclear powered, that's the rate they manage since Georgia at least on paper is a net exporter of electricity!
So it wasn't as much as putting money in building stuff as maybe throwing some money at bribing.

Not the only ones:

Quote
First behind-the-meter bitcoin mining facility powered by 100% nuclear power at scale in the U.S.
TeraWulf benefits from a fixed power cost at Nautilus of only $0.02 per kilowatt hour for five years.



hmm 3 mile island anyone. or chernoble
2272  Economy / Economics / Re: Steam drops support for 2 fiat currencies over their volatlity on: October 30, 2023, 11:33:56 PM
PC Gamer: Valve is dropping local currency support for Turkey and Argentina amid 'exchange rate volatility,' moving to 'regionalized USD pricing' for 25 countries

Quote
"Exchange rate volatility in Argentina and Turkey in recent years has made it hard for game developers to choose appropriate prices for their games and keep them current," Valve explained. "We have heard this loud and clear in our developer meet ups and round table chats. In addition, we have had a hard time keeping Steam payment methods up and running in these countries/territories due to the constant foreign exchange fluctuations, fees, taxes, and logistical issues.

"Pricing games in USD for Steam customers in Argentina and Turkey will help us provide greater stability and consistency for players and partners, while also enabling us to continue to offer a variety of payment methods to Steam users in those countries/territories."

"Volatility" in this case appears to be a polite way of saying that the currencies in question have all but collapsed.

The switch to US currency in Argentina and Turkey will see them included in a new "regionalized USD pricing" bloc that includes 25 countries across two regions, Latin America and Middle East/North Africa. The other countries included in the new pricing regions did not previously have local currency support.

In the past Steam dropped the option of paying with BTC via BitPay because of customer complaints over high fees, delayed transactions and problems with the processor, and Steam never had intention of accepting Bitcoin directly. Now we see that fiat currencies are not immune from getting dumped by global corportations either.

Perhaps when Bitcoin will become stable and LN will be ready for mainstream use, Bitcoin will take its place among the strongest global currencies. But for now the similar argument of price volatility can be used to reject Bitcoin from being adopted by a lot of merchants.



This is an interesting move. I would think they will go all USD and maybe

USD - Euro.

But down the road they may add BTC,
2273  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 30, 2023, 11:18:35 PM
One more semi-possible variable in the mix.
Bitmain or the others  throwing some new gear into the market or realizing they need to empty stock really fast! If they would do a 30% discount now on the brand new 20j/t gear I think a lot of guys holding first generation s19 will see only numbers all day long including in their sleep. But doubt bitmain would suddenly feel generous enough to sell gear without a 100% added value tax!

Not sure I understand the logic here, but I would appreciate a little bit more explanation, "Explain Like I'm Five" would do. Cheesy


Quote
We have publicly disclosed our current energy mix of 95% carbon-free power, at a fixed price of $0.0285 kWh.


The devil is in the detail, how much did they spend to get the 2.85 cents/kWh? anyone can achieve that if the initial investment is to be ignored if your power rate is 10 cents / kWh you sell your power back at 5 cents, and you have 6 hours of sunlight, all you have to do is generate 7 times what you consume and you will get "free power".

Example:

You generate 420kWh during the 6 hours and use only 60kWh (10 per hour)
You sell back the extra 360kWh to the grid for $18
for the remaining 18 hours, you would need  180kWh which at 10 cents will cost you $18

The electric company will never send you a bill, and you can claim that you have free power, but ya, good luck with seeing ROI on this kind of setup.

2.85c cents ALL-in is just, unrealistic IMO.





well the best states do 1 to 1 on kwatts..

SO pretend you are all solar and do 60 megawatts a day. this would be a 10 megawatt array an average of 6 hours sun.

so if you buy back for 18 hours  and use 2.5 megawatt an hour  that is 45 megawatt on buy back and in the six hours you use 2.5 x 6 = 15 megawatt.

and they say they are 95% carbon free. 

So a 10 megawatt array  could do  2.5 megawatt an hour  with that 5% factor tossed in.

It is possible. but lets do some more 2.5 mwatts is 2500kwatts is 800 units at 3 kwatts  or 700 units at 3.5 kwatts 700 x 200th =140000th or 140 ph

which is no where near the claimed 22eh

if they do it with solar they need mm a 100 mwatt only does  1.4eh so 1000 megawatt solar array does 14eh so 1500megawatt array

now to do a 1500 megawatt array you need

1 acre does 250kwatts
4 acres does 1 megawatt
40 acres does 10 megawatts
400 acres does 100 megawatts these are about the worlds biggest arrays.

6000 acres would be needed to do what they claim if it is all solar tied to the grid.

yeah they are not doing it all with solar.
2274  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How to value bitcoin and cryptocurrencies? on: October 30, 2023, 10:36:15 PM
Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply

Price = Marketcap divided by Circulating supply.

If people buy more bitcoin, the market will increase, which is proportional to the price. Which means as people buy more bitcoin than selling it, the price will increase.

There's also mining difficulty, total hash power and indicators used to determine what the average price of newly mined bitcoin is. The price of coins mined at different points in time create something that we could call price floor at that time. It's a similar indicator trader use to know how many holders are at a loss. The more people at profit the more above the average transactional price bitcoin is, which allows us to estimate its value.

As a guy that mines  I can tell you creating a coin is around 17-24k assuming just the power cost.

pretend you have a  s19xp it  pulls  80kwatts a day x 3 cents = $2.40 and mines 140 x 0.00000199 btc = 0.0002786 btc a day

lets round this to

$2.50 in power makes  0.000280 btc
$25.00 in power makes 0.00280 btc
$250.00 in power makes 0.0280 btc
$2500.00 in power makes 0.280 btc
$8928. in 3 cent power to make 1 btc.

but you need to add costs of labor.
the building housing the gear
and the gear.

My gear cost is paid for
my housing cost is paid for
my labor is my own.  If coins were to stay at 34000 after the ˝ inning I would likely quit mining.

even with my cheap power deal.

2275  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will $BTC soar beyond 35K or dip below? 🚀📉 on: October 30, 2023, 09:24:41 PM
Just like how it happened in the wake of 2023, Bitcoin was seriously moving up when I first gave my analysis that it would not move above $35,000-$37,000 in 2023. The market was well almost $30,000 when I gave this analysis in April, and it was like magic when Bitcoin started falling and couldn't reach above the level still till this time of writing.

This might be an instinct but instinct is not always a joke, it happens when you are conversant with something which the brain later interprets as such.  Guess what, I'm always conversant with the market. I maintain my stand on this that Bitcoin might not reach above $37,000 this year.

Though it looks so promising that it would breach the level higher with the current price and market trend, it won't, that's my view and I stand by it.

Well I am sticking to my guns and I say 42-45k with a shot at 48K

I think your 37 k top is wrong simple as that.

No bets or wagers just guessing on our parts.
2276  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 30, 2023, 07:09:17 PM
Congratulations to NeuroticFish!  Grin

And we avoided the plague of the flying pigs again!   Roll Eyes

However, in the "downtrend" scenario you still won't get the max discount, because gear prices are affected by both profitability (a combination of difficulty and BTC price) and time, many sellers will still hold on to their gears thinking the profitability will rebound, so a 50% drop won't scare them, but you know what will? 6-12 months of sideway market, it's when everybody capitulates and you get the best prices ever.

One more semi-possible variable in the mix.
Bitmain or the others  throwing some new gear into the market or realizing they need to empty stock really fast! If they would do a 30% discount now on the brand new 20j/t gear I think a lot of guys holding first generation s19 will see only numbers all day long including in their sleep. But doubt bitmain would suddenly feel generous enough to sell gear without a 100% added value tax!

Unrelated but a bit of insight in one of the big players' business (pr article but still)

Quote
CleanSpark Reaches Rare Bitcoin Mining Milestone at 10 EH/s . CleanSpark's fleet-wide efficiency is estimated at 27.8 joules per terahash (J/TH). CleanSpark recently purchased 4.4 EH/s of Antminer S21 bitcoin mining machines, which are scheduled to be delivered in early 2024. Once plugged in, the Company expects to reach a total hashrate of more than 20 EH/s.
already fully funded by investors, and  from their SEC filling:
Quote
We have publicly disclosed our current energy mix of 95% carbon-free power, at a fixed price of $0.0285 kWh.
So, how to compete with these guys?

As for the new diff at this point, not even going to comment:
Quote
Current Pace:   108.6942%  (92 / 84.64 expected, 7.36 ahead)
common...right?



a 2.85 cent a k-watt farm is a can't be beat company.

 I am not that good.

 I won't be lower than 4 cents.



Sent neuroticfish 0.001 btc

bc1qd.................................2763.

paid 7 sats vs 11 asked for.

 lets see how long it takes to clear.

I will not reveal his full btc addy for his privacy
2277  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 30, 2023, 06:39:37 PM
Congratulations to NeuroticFish!  Grin

And we avoided the plague of the flying pigs again!   Roll Eyes

However, in the "downtrend" scenario you still won't get the max discount, because gear prices are affected by both profitability (a combination of difficulty and BTC price) and time, many sellers will still hold on to their gears thinking the profitability will rebound, so a 50% drop won't scare them, but you know what will? 6-12 months of sideway market, it's when everybody capitulates and you get the best prices ever.

One more semi-possible variable in the mix.
Bitmain or the others  throwing some new gear into the market or realizing they need to empty stock really fast! If they would do a 30% discount now on the brand new 20j/t gear I think a lot of guys holding first generation s19 will see only numbers all day long including in their sleep. But doubt bitmain would suddenly feel generous enough to sell gear without a 100% added value tax!

Unrelated but a bit of insight in one of the big players' business (pr article but still)

Quote
CleanSpark Reaches Rare Bitcoin Mining Milestone at 10 EH/s . CleanSpark's fleet-wide efficiency is estimated at 27.8 joules per terahash (J/TH). CleanSpark recently purchased 4.4 EH/s of Antminer S21 bitcoin mining machines, which are scheduled to be delivered in early 2024. Once plugged in, the Company expects to reach a total hashrate of more than 20 EH/s.
already fully funded by investors, and  from their SEC filling:
Quote
We have publicly disclosed our current energy mix of 95% carbon-free power, at a fixed price of $0.0285 kWh.
So, how to compete with these guys?

As for the new diff at this point, not even going to comment:
Quote
Current Pace:   108.6942%  (92 / 84.64 expected, 7.36 ahead)
common...right?



a 2.85 cent a k-watt farm is a can't be beat company.

 I am not that good.

 I won't be lower than 4 cents.
2278  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Anyone use a COLDCARD hardware wallet? on: October 30, 2023, 03:12:13 PM
You develop, get copied, develop, get copied, copied copied, what's the point?
Because it drives development.

There are many reasons why Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nestle, Mars, Pfizer and other big corporations stay in their niche and don't interrupt in small businesses.
Exactly. So there is far more nuance to it than your initial claim that someone rich can just clone your product and drive you out of business. If that was the case then Trezor wouldn't exist, Passport wouldn't exist, BitBox wouldn't exist. All the best pieces of software for using bitcoin - Electrum, Sparrow, Bisq, Robosats, etc. - are open source, and are yet to be cloned and driven out by a rich competitor. The same is true for bitcoin itself.

hmm I supposed apple could clone trezor and have a bug built in crashing all of btc.
Huh Whatever bugs an individual hardware wallet have is irrelevant to bitcoin as a whole. There is no way for a single wallet to crash the network.

If apple made a wallet on the iPhone and a hardware wallet that appeared to be far better than any other wallet. How many btc do you think would sit in it?

10,000 btc
100,000 btc
1,000,000 btc

maybe btc could survive 1,000,000 being stolen from wallets all over the world.

My point is if a wallet can't be cloned or made popular ie closed source it would have added security over a clone able open source. If the actor or developer was honest and did a good job building it.

So some closed source should be floating around along with some open source. The key is that no one hardware wallet model Trezor or passport or what ever  should have 3 or 4 million of all the coins there are.
2279  Economy / Economics / Re: choose an option on: October 30, 2023, 02:34:32 PM
which would you prefer to receive?
a. $480,000 lottery win as payments spread over 96months(8 years) of $5k a month
b. $480,000 lottery win as payment lumpsum $480k
c. $480,000 of bitcoin at(~$24k/btc buy price recent months allocated to the donator) 20btc
d. $480,000 value house
e. $480,000 value business
f. $480,000 of gold at(~$1.8k/ounce buy price recent months allocated to the donator) 266ounce

pick one and explain your rationale..
if you pick bitcoin as first choice. also pick another and explain rationale of second choice
(im mainly looking to see people opinions/rationale on choices that are made about not option C and compared to C)


My obvious choice would be E.
Simply because it is a business, and I am a type of person who puts of high importance of businesses. Also, I choose e because the cashflow will be in a continuum process and it will not just stop with a $480,000 because you will generate more income when you have a business. Not only that, but you will also have the chance to expand your business, and meaning to say, your income can be doubled. Personally, I think e is the best choice amongst all because you will have the full control about it unlike in lottery, bitcoin, and or gold in which things you don't have the control especially when we take about the market condition. But for me, e can be also the riskiest among the choices especially if you do not have any idea on how to run a business because there is a huge possibility that you might fail. Contrastingly, if you are a business-minded yourself, then I think e is the best choice.



I originally thought that. But frank1y said you get 20 btc and that it is worth 680.

so I will take that and sell 15 coins.

buy the business for 480
leaving me 30k
and 5 coins

at frank1y am I now understanding your choices as you meant?
2280  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 30, 2023, 02:29:58 PM
Today i told to my state that i'm a bitcoin hodler and, In order to pay taxes, today I sodl.
It's really strange to see my BTC stash decreasing and filthy FIAT hitting my bank's account, this is the first time I do it since 2013 and feels really stupid, expecially considering that i forsee a new ATH coming more sooner than later. But a man have to to what a man have to do...


paying the tax man is okay 👌 you won’t need to worry that the tax man is after you.
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