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2041  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 11, 2023, 01:14:10 PM
Buddy thank you for your service.

Thank YOU for your service, Phil.

You are welcome. it was a long time ago. Jimmy Carter was the president.

All the more respectable if you ask me. Back during a time when men were men and being in the military meant you went through it and earned your respect. Thank you for your service and I hope that you have a wonderful weekend full of kind words and maybe more importantly, great food and drink.

30 year t-bonds were paying 14% as inflation was fucking crazy.
2042  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 11, 2023, 03:54:17 AM
Buddy thank you for your service.

Thank YOU for your service, Phil.

You are welcome. it was a long time ago. Jimmy Carter was the president.
2043  Economy / Economics / Re: What is the right age for financial stability? on: November 11, 2023, 03:33:51 AM
The right age for financial stability is as soon as you start earning money. You shouldn't have to go into extreme and sorry debt just to enjoy life. And yes that means cutting down on partying. Besides, you're you're supposed to party after you succeed, not before you even hit the trail. Also, most of these young people waste their money on stuff that they end up not needing (or wanting).

Oh I wish I had followed this advice from 14 to 29 when I married my wife in 1986 we could have had a nice house asap. no mortgage. ah to bad most of us do not get brains until we are deep into our 30’s
2044  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [Oct 2023] Fees are low, use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs on: November 11, 2023, 03:27:58 AM
Quote
I refuse to waste money on paying more fees even though I could.
If you consolidated your funds on time, you may be able to use ViaBTC's transaction accelerator now. But only for transactions up to half a kB, with at least 10 sat/byte (not vbyte, so about double for Segwit).
Yup, this does the trick for now, but the day ViaBTC decide to retire their transaction accelerator. It will be terrible for people who are genuinely stuck. I remember there were about 3-4 more transaction accelerators owned by other mining pools like Poolin, Antpool but for some reason, they all stopped them.

A responsible way is always send with a trezor. It has a boost option so problem is solved.
2045  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk: Error 504: Gateway time-out [Update: November 11, 2023] on: November 11, 2023, 03:25:31 AM
I have been on this forum since 2012. I have seen 100 outages in the 11 years I have been on this site.

There always seems to be more down time when BTC starts to bull run.
2046  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 11, 2023, 03:11:17 AM
Buddy thank you for your service.
2047  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: November 11, 2023, 02:20:17 AM

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com


Buddy you had a decent week. Tomorrow is Veterans Day. I am a USN veteran and would like to ask you buddy to do some service for the wo.

as buddy you are a truly good veteran bot.

I know you can lift us up up and away on Sat the 11th
2048  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2023, 08:01:37 PM
hmm back over 37 k maybe we do a run over of 38k and touch on 39k tonight or this weekend.
2049  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What's happening with Bitcoin transaction fees? on: November 10, 2023, 07:23:13 PM
Satoshi Nakamoto - Bitcoin white paper "A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.

This concept gives Bitcoin it's value. If we don't nurture this idea then Bitcoin is just another centralized financial vehicle with questionable value.

Don't let Ordinals destroy the hope and financial sovereignty created by Bitcoin and it's stated purpose.

Tom McPhail

The reality is LTC/Doge can do the same thing  and we have reached a different era for BTC

IE big ass storage of wealth.

You simply can't show that for small peer to peer sends the LTC/Doge are not better.

So far BTC has done multiple tweaks to do better with small transactions.

bc1 has better fees
legacy 3 addresses have better fees
LN have better fees

but even with all that network clogs an 100 or 200 sats a byte are needed.

I can safely send 10000 usd worth of LTC for as low as 0.00000134 ltc or under 1 tenth of a penny.

BTC simply needs to give up the idea they can match LTC/Doge for cheap fast sends.

and btw watts to wealth is the foundation for satoshi's idea. no one can show that LTC/Doge does not do watts to wealth.

If you think of them like a scooter or a bike

and think of btc like a bus or train it would be far far far more realistic way to promote the 3 most important pow coins.
2050  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 10, 2023, 05:43:12 PM
still borderline to mine

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   816173  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.5773%  (1710 / 1667.04 expected, 42.96 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Next Difficulty:   between 64046557857249 and 64084859588661
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.5344% and +2.5957%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 2:23 PM  (in 2d 1h 43m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 2:35 PM  (in 2d 1h 54m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 33m 28s and 13d 15h 45m 8s


2.57%.

 number 08) would win and no-one has picked that one.
2051  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 10, 2023, 05:41:24 PM
still borderline to mine

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   816173  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.5773%  (1710 / 1667.04 expected, 42.96 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Next Difficulty:   between 64046557857249 and 64084859588661
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.5344% and +2.5957%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 2:23 PM  (in 2d 1h 43m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 2:35 PM  (in 2d 1h 54m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 33m 28s and 13d 15h 45m 8s


2.57%
2052  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [Oct 2023] Fees are low, use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs on: November 10, 2023, 04:54:15 PM
I can't help but see this as a threat to Bitcoin. Am I correct to worry? It may be correct that storage space is cheap nowadays but I don't see any sense in that the Blockchain can be used to store arbitrary (non-neglible sized) garbage data at the cost of literally anyone using the network.
It's always been possible to store data in the blockchain, and there's always been spam. The main problem now is that someone managed to earn money from spamming, which means they can keep this up for as long as they can convince people to pay them for made-up BS Ordinals.

Wasn't it something like 80 kB before and it's possible to store up to 4MB now. I think it was a mistake that it can be arbitrary although SegWit and what not was the reason for the change. I'm not well versed enough to say if it would even be possible without allowing arbitrary data from anyone.

I believe there's a place for cryptographically proven ownership
Quote
I'd love to see it on the stock market, or for instance car registration. But that requires a central authority to connect crypto to the real world, and they're not ready for it.

I fear it's not going to happen unless it's in some what they remain in control i.e. they can revoke your ownership. The authorities won't risk letting us actually own something.

Quote
Now you get it.

Scrypt algo has a vested interest in spamming the BTC fee system.

 I have to think the major mines will help to do this again and again and again.  Causing more pressure on btc or more use of scrypt coins.

get ready for quite a show in spring

I can't help but feel you are right. I personally am leaning towards using Monero for regular transactions.

Yeah I have seen the pattern repeat over and over and over and over.

Let's say a whale has 100 btc in an addy he is not looking to sell until yesterday. he needs to pay bigly to move the coins to coinbase to convert to cash.  but what the fuck 100 coins is 3.6 or 3.7 mill who cares if the fee is 5,000 usd.  He got in last year at 16k and now sells for 37k big profit.

He does not care if fees are big.

Now take Joe Smoe he broke his balls getting 1 btc last fall at 16k it is in his trezor he sees 37k and says fuck this I am cashing.

he was a bit dumb did not pre consolidate the 1 btc and his fee is 1000 usd to move it. He will feel that.

So this encourages storage in an exchange.

This is but one of many examples of why fees are flooded and Jack and will continue to be Jacked. Not every day but 2 days here 3 days here so on and so forth.

I can illustrate it goes beyond ordinals. Large pools with big players can do it.
2053  Other / Meta / Re: I am confused as to why this thread was moved to the current section it is in. on: November 10, 2023, 04:45:01 PM
because he do also analysis about Ethereum but he first analyzed that of bitcoin so this shows it should belong to speculation section as you did mentioned.
If you read carefully, he's analyzing Bitcoin's move, but he think the news about Blackrock is accepting Ethereum ETFs will make Bitcoin bullish. He's not predicting if Ethereum price will reach x price nor will bullish/bearish.

as my work yeah its quality, but its not mine it is  president Lincoln's Gettysburg address
Be careful, someone who hate or don't like you will report your post as plagiarized post and you might get banned. Tongue

https://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/gettysburg.htm

I gave proper credit to Honest Abe. Just read to the bottom of the post it is clearly there.

I know some times I miss what is in a post>

I am guessing you simply over looked the credit I gave in that post.

This is a bit off topic but it does work well with another current thread in meta.
In the thread below the complaint is people do not read enough to make good posts (I paraphrased)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5473432.msg63128016#msg63128016

I would argue you did that on my Lincoln post in this thread.

 A lot of the issues are people are harried and sometimes miss obvious things.  It is mainly due to the flow of information tossed at us.
2054  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: November 10, 2023, 03:25:31 PM

Observing 36,750@Stamp

I smell FOMO in the air.
preparing for an ETF induced God Candle.
My body is ready.


I'm feeling the bad smell FOMO too...

As the market break the resistance of 36k last night maybe due to the approval news of ETF and mojoritys saying 50k too soon well if ETF not approve .... Will market stay in fake sentiments Zone? Or correct itself....

dude the proper correction with no ETF THIS YEAR is 42k-48k.

once again 42k dec 1
and then 48k jan 1
drop  back to 40 k

Slowly drift to 60-70k near 1/2 ing

some drop back right after 1/2 ing.

ATH late fall 2024

moonshot in 2025 close to 500k by fall
2055  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [Oct 2023] Fees are low, use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs on: November 10, 2023, 03:18:40 PM
Quote
Quote
this is ridiculous.
Agreed.

I can't help but see this as a threat to Bitcoin. Am I correct to worry? It may be correct that storage space is cheap nowadays but I don't see any sense in that the Blockchain can be used to store arbitrary (non-neglible sized) garbage data at the cost of literally anyone using the network.

There's Lightning Network, sure, but high transaction fees aren't entirely unproblematic with regards to LN either.

Things like signature campaigns are becoming problematic. Being forced to use altcoins.

Now you get it.

Scrypt algo has a vested interest in spamming the BTC fee system.

I have at least 12 major reasons the BTC fee system will be attacked. One` reason is people will use LTC/DOGE to save money.

This "attack" is not over or close to over. as the fees are bouncing around 0.5 to 2.3 coins per block

0.5 is okay enough  but 2.3 coins per block is big.

If you think this is bad. They are prepping for the 1/2 ing

this attack blocks were 6.25 and some very high fees touched 3 coins so

6.25 to 3.0

if it were next May 2024 rewards of  3.125 and fees of 3.0 = huge issue.

 I have to think the major mines will help to do this again and again and again.  Causing more pressure on btc or more use of scrypt coins.

get ready for quite a show in spring
2056  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2023, 02:23:15 PM
@ jjg a shit ton of gold coins were not turned over to the usa government back in 1933

I would imagine lots of btc would not get turned over.
2057  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2023, 04:26:06 AM
although I listed some for sale at $39,876.50

i listed some for sale too, but at ~$120k usd

Yeah I ladder up a bit .

39k
49k
75k

85k
95k
105k

115k
125k
135k

$120k - $135k is not even 2x and those numbers should have been reached previous bullrun. This time another halving with tighter supply and ETF's in play. Add $50k - $100k on top of your bearish outcome.

today I made 30 posts. so I guess the bull has me going.

My projection is 500k for this cycle in fall of 2025.

48 k end of 2023
70k right at the 1/2 ing
111k Dec 2024
500k dec 2025



It's possible, but unlikely.
Most likely btc will be dominated by ETF and ETF will be dominated by institutions and those are prone to take massive profits periodically, causing the curve NOt to be exponential.
I still think it will be $140-150K at the next peak with next bottom at maybe $60-70K, then to $300-350K at the peak after (in 2028-2029) with $1mil-ish by around 2032-2033.
Additionally, I kind of expect a sharp dip in almost everything within the next two-three months to "allow" the Fed to "cleanly" switch to an easier policy.


I watched and held gold as it went sideways for over ten years 1992 to 2002. it is more than five x that.

so maybe you are correct and btc only does 5x to 190k from the 38k it did today.

or maybe it goes 5 x from our 69k high which is 345k
2058  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Question about Bitcoin network spammer on: November 10, 2023, 04:21:06 AM
From the last three days I have a transaction which is stuck, it is painful.

It is very painful  Cry Cry Cry


So it is because of the ordinal transaction, I know the ordinal creates a lot of noise but a couple of weeks ago bitcoin back to the normal fee for even 2 sat/Vb, and today when bitcoin reach 37K the transaction is growing crazy, Maybe this transaction was accompanied by people who wanted to take profit and send their money to the exchange well make sense  Undecided

and what the heck is this, NFT??



And I can tell you that miners are loving it.

And at the op miners get paid to guard your wealth. Right now miners are barely hanging in there above water.

This is why people push ordinals to

a) create miner relief
b) make pressure on btc to scale its fees better.
c) give miners  and coin holders the option to say fuck you to btc and switch to scrypt.

It is the fee is almost a half of the bitcoin reward there are also people who pay 1,101 sat/vB This man has balls  Cheesy

and found an article on Quora that basically said like this - https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-purpose-of-spamming-Bitcoin-mempool-with-lots-of-transactions-with-a-low-fee-which-would-barely-ever-be-confirmed

2. Strategic Fee Manipulation: In some cases, individuals or entities may spam the mempool with low-fee transactions to manipulate the fee market. By congesting the network, they can artificially drive up transaction fees, creating an advantage for their own transactions or attempting to disrupt the activities of other participants.

The difference is they use a high fee to do the transaction.



Anyway is this possible that Ordinal using system like layer 2 on ETHereum using Rollup transaction ?

It is not desired as the entire idea 💡 behind high fees is to pressure btc to alter fee scaling. Or have smaller transactions move to scrypt.
2059  Other / Meta / Re: I am confused as to why this thread was moved to the current section it is in. on: November 10, 2023, 04:00:47 AM
I clicked to the see the content of the post you are talking about from my own view the post below to speculation section and not altcoin section but, looking from what op wrote over there it's actually confusing because you wouldn't give exact place where the post should belong because he do also analysis about Ethereum but he first analyzed that of bitcoin so this shows it should belong to speculation section as you did mentioned. Usually the poster can moved it where he thinks the post belonged to but the mod can moved it back to where he thinks is belongings to instead of the original poster moving to place not suitable.
The thing is first moved can be from op while the rest could probably be from the mods in my opinion.

there is 1 sentence on the entire thread that side mentions eth.  there are far more sentences talking about btc.

I could start a really long thread on why some alt coin info must be allowed in context in btc areas. But I won't do that here.

I will refer to this post in my difficulty thread it references Doge and even shows a Doge difficulty thread. But frankly the

point of the post is Doge is affecting BTC difficulty. I kind of think his eth reference is the same.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.msg63132777#msg63132777
 

this post is in my difficulty thread for BTC and poses a theory I have about Bitmain using excess gear in rotation to gain more profit. This practice cause a lot of fluctuation in BTC difficulty within the 13-14 day difficulty adjustments.

Showing the Doge chart is absolutely need  to illustrate my idea.

Thus some alt coin info is needed in some BTC posts.

One of the reasons I was attracted to this thread that confused me was the small but needed reference to Eth in th top first post.
2060  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Angry at the high fees? That's what everyone predicted the future will be like! on: November 10, 2023, 03:48:43 AM
Although still too high for my tastes, fees have already come down about 50% since this topic was opened, so that's good at least.

I do blame Binance for listing $ORDI and basically being the first major exchange to implement Ordinals support. They benefit from fees being high for several reasons, not just because of their BTC mining pool:

- they can pass the costs off to their customers in the form of a bigger withdrawal fee
- this makes people not want to withdrawal their coins from the exchange (more liquidity for them), and
- they can point to BNB as a "cheaper alternative" than Bitcoin.

I have figure 10 or more cases that a company spending 10-25 btc can generate 200 btc fee costs.

They all involve major players and in every case they can profit by doing it.  Ordinals are but 1 method.
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