Martin Armstrong Discussion

[OROBTC]

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I still have yet to find anyone who can convince me that holding BOTH cryptos and precious metals is unwise.  Personal circumstances of course would influence which particulars and in what quantities should be held.

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And you will not find such a person. I can tell you once a friend gave me a book on mathematical background of investments. I don't have the book now, and I don't remember the equations, but the bottom line of that analysis sunk very deeply: the best (EDIT: and most sure at the same time) returns one gets from maximaly divergent assets, in terms of their mutual correlation. So it seems that gold and crypto are not correlated particularly well and it would be good to have them both in your portfolio.

I too saw some math long ago about how a wide diversification gets better returns (not to mention safer), not in a book, but somewhere.  Safety is very important to me.  That is why my limit of holding cryptos is about 1%.

Of course that will limit any BTC/BCH/ETH/LTC (etc.) gains should they skyrocket.  But, each crypto looks risky and volatile, and the technology keeps changing (not to mention .gov meddling).

Nice comment!  I tried to "merit" you, but am not sure if I have this new feature here figured out.

[Zebra.Guy]

...

I still have yet to find anyone who can convince me that holding BOTH cryptos and precious metals is unwise.  Personal circumstances of course would influence which particulars and in what quantities should be held.

...

And you will not find such a person. I can tell you once a friend gave me a book on mathematical background of investments. I don't have the book now, and I don't remember the equations, but the bottom line of that analysis sunk very deeply: the best (EDIT: and most sure at the same time) returns one gets from maximaly divergent assets, in terms of their mutual correlation. So it seems that gold and crypto are not correlated particularly well and it would be good to have them both in your portfolio.

I too saw some math long ago about how a wide diversification gets better returns (not to mention safer), not in a book, but somewhere.  Safety is very important to me.  That is why my limit of holding cryptos is about 1%.

Of course that will limit any BTC/BCH/ETH/LTC (etc.) gains should they skyrocket.  But, each crypto looks risky and volatile, and the technology keeps changing (not to mention .gov meddling).

Nice comment!  I tried to "merit" you, but am not sure if I have this new feature here figured out.

Thank you, it is very kind and nice welcome coming from you.

I was thinking about it some more after I posted my comment and I figured out that I was not precise enough when I said about returns being "the best (and most sure at the same time)". The author I was referring to, he had a probabilistic model behind investment strategies and his results were expressed in terms of expected value and variance. He showed that one is able to keep expected value high while minimizing the variance when he chooses his portfolio to minimize correlation.

I will try to get the title and author's name and get back to you, if it is of interest to you.

And again: thanks for the warm welcome

[Traxo]

Possible slingshot bitcoin crash ahead

Armstrong is definitely thinking a further crash of everything into a SLINGSHOT move to the upside.
Maybe we should be prepared for a drop to $3500!

[mstfprcn]

One thing that needs to be accounted for globally is rising and shrinking Populations from MACRO GLOBAL view and also regional view. In addition, we need to also take into account TECHNOLOGY and its impact on employment worldwide and impact on company bottomline. Companies are making more money now as productions costs go down....energy is down and technology is replacing human labor.   With Corporate powers profiting and average worker working two jobs...less tax being paid to govt' and MA thus makes good MACRO points.

[realr0ach]

Teenage actor David Hogg from Florida false flag shooting operation failing to recite his pre-scripted lines and having to do redos over and over on camera:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvz3NsbptNc

Then, the same teenage actor David Hogg on the news in CALIFORNIA instead of Florida in August 2017:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvZD7UkJd24

You're not getting the guns jewfags!  The debt based scam dollar will implode, everyone will have guns when it happens, and govts will be forced back to metals instead of a new debt based scam currency or cashless society slave system.

[OROBTC]

Teenage actor David Hogg from Florida false flag shooting operation failing to recite his pre-scripted lines and having to do redos over and over on camera:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvz3NsbptNc

Then, the same teenage actor David Hogg on the news in CALIFORNIA instead of Florida in August 2017:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvZD7UkJd24

You're not getting the guns jewfags!  The debt based scam dollar will implode, everyone will have guns when it happens, and govts will be forced back to metals instead of a new debt based scam currency or cashless society slave system.

I just saw a report from a LOCAL Florida news station saying some of the Douglas High students are not teenagers nor students there.  That caravan of NICE buses?  Not organized nor paid for by students.

Lies everywhere.  TPTB only want more controls upon us.

My own defenses are owning precious metals, a little crypto (a fabulous experiment worth keeping our eyes on) as well as a gun or two.  Don’t forget extra ammo. 

Avoid debt.  Debt is very dangerous unless carefully controlled, like fire.....

[THX 1138]

If you've considered buying property in the UK with, say, any crypto profits, Armstrong has some news for you:

"From January 31st, 2018, the UK authorities have a new power. They can now use new and expansive investigative authority to require both individuals and corporate bodies to provide information as to how they acquired property. Known as Unexplained Wealth Orders (“UWOs”), which is another step toward tyranny all because governments are totally incapable of managing their own finances...

...The new UWO imposes obligations to disclose information with respect to property anywhere in the world and can even be served on persons living outside the UK. Britain is taking a step closer toward imposing worldwide taxation for it is now requiring even non-resident to divulge information that historically was not taxable....

...What has taken place is rather stark and we can expect that other countries will file Britain’s lead. This new law has turned the entire legal system on its head. We have always believed that we were supposed to be innocent until proven guilty. That has been completely eradicated from the law. The UWOs now presume guilty and it becomes your burden to prove you are innocent....

...The DANGER in this legislation is simple. It is pure and unadulterated tyranny for it removes ALL protections of law and shreds the English Bill of Rights no less the Magna Carta.... The entire right to trial by jury was to stop the king and his corrupt courts from fining people to raise money. This law has shredded the Magna Carta and has restored all the former tyranny of the King once again to raise money. In 2015, that marked the 800th year following the signing of Magna Carta.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/britains-new-law-unexplained-wealth-orders-targeting-the-rich/

For me this is quite academic (though no less disturbing), as so far I have yet to have any "Unexplained Wealth" come my way! Though if it did, the above could seriously make a dent in the following strategy:

https://coin.fyi/news/bitcoin/ladies-and-gents-this-is-one-of-the-best-advice-you-can-get-once-you-have-n-7zfj94

[psp777]

Has anyone purchased the 2018 share market report or the CDN 2018 Outlook report. Curious as to what you think. I can afford the $750USD and $150USD costs

[Traxo]

Has anyone purchased the 2018 share market report [...]. Curious as to what you think.

Someone said it's interesting and recommends it:

For those who can afford $750 like pocket money, I recommend the report. It’s very interesting reading.

[Wundariesty]

Bitcoin is now a worldwide currency,but just in the web. We wont see it change to extremely "global money" yet im beyond any doubt the internet shopping
will be finished by bitcoins after some years, no one knows but i believe on it.

[Traxo]

It’s important to remember that my first quip (at the Martin Armstrong thread at BCT) when this decline accelerated in January was I would expect a drop to $7000 – $8500,
and I quipped privately that I would sell if it rebounded to $15k.
Then in February after some chart analysis during the crash to $5850 intraday low, I wrote that the maximum bounce appeared to be $12k.
I seemed to get swayed by the potential inverted H&S pattern (because trying to multitask too many tasks and not even finding enough time to sleep) and also
I was being influenced by Armstrong’s Socrates system which had written “In Breakout Mode” for Bitcoin.
I need to stick with my initial insights and intuition.

I’ve been warning about ICOs since last year.

[mstfprcn]

seems we have TWO economies running.A new rising Virtual world economy with no boundaries and the old real world economy with borders and laws. As the Virtual Economy grows and more and more participate a need for ONe virtual currency increases.A single supporting legislation on Such Virtual economy will also be needed.

I’m not a expert in technology (I’m a Virtual World Refugee) I don’t know anything. But biggest difference I see between crypto currencies and real world Paper / Metals is that the Cryptocurrencies  are not subject to geographical boundaries nor affected by central bank interest rates changes - and easily outside of Tax.

The young folks and next generation are very comfortable and spend more time in Virtual Economy than the Real World.   So I see this as a new empire but without borders.    In old times when An empire started - the architect/ Engineer/ resources miners were in high demand / law enforcement/ armies  - today I speculate that TECH sector wages are out pacing other sectors as they build this new empire - their law enforcement you can say are the System security / forensics experts / developers / miners / System database designers etc.

Virtual World vs Real World

[OROBTC]

seems we have TWO economies running.A new rising Virtual world economy with no boundaries and the old real world economy with borders and laws. As the Virtual Economy grows and more and more participate a need for ONe virtual currency increases.A single supporting legislation on Such Virtual economy will also be needed.

I’m not a expert in technology (I’m a Virtual World Refugee) I don’t know anything. But biggest difference I see between crypto currencies and real world Paper / Metals is that the Cryptocurrencies  are not subject to geographical boundaries nor affected by central bank interest rates changes - and easily outside of Tax.

The young folks and next generation are very comfortable and spend more time in Virtual Economy than the Real World.   So I see this as a new empire but without borders.    In old times when An empire started - the architect/ Engineer/ resources miners were in high demand / law enforcement/ armies  - today I speculate that TECH sector wages are out pacing other sectors as they build this new empire - their law enforcement you can say are the System security / forensics experts / developers / miners / System database designers etc.

Virtual World vs Real World

Be very careful re avoiding taxation with BTC profits.  Our (USA) IRS is working with "Chainalysis" blockchain tracking software (probably other software too).  The IRS has just gotten (or will very soon) all sorts of records from Coinbase...

Yes, there are ways that us non-tekkies can hide the trail somewhat, especially small fish who would interest the IRS less (except for "demonstration purposes"), but my remarks stand.  Even getting into Monero, which hides transactions pretty well they say, will likely have the Entrance Ramps and Exit Ramps monitored (when you buy your crypto for cash, sell it later, or buy something with it).

One of the great thinkers (yeah, I'm thinking of YOU) here at bitcointalk has argued for years about the impending Knowledge Age, in which the smart and hard-working will prosper.  This gives some hope that maybe the long longed-for world of easy to evade financial borders (etc.) may come along in due course.  I think that it WILL likely happen.  But I suspect that will take longer than many think.  In the meantime, I would play by the rules unless you are highly skilled and very careful.

[realr0ach]

I'm so tired of reading posts from idiots whose only knowledge of cryptocurrency stems from Andreas Antonopolous propaganda they regurgitate as being true when in fact it's all lies:

A blockchain is not some type of magical 8th wonder of the world.  All it is is a ledger that requires a focal point for convergence.  The focal point is always something like stake, raw hash power expenditure (which is nothing more than externalized stake in practice), or some other variable that can be quantified where I can say that I have more of it than you do.  Where exactly do you see "decentralization" arising from such a paradigm?  You would need to be a fool to think so.

The only way such an idea would not be laughable at face value is if everyone who uses the system was required to be a miner, but that's obviously not possible due to massive monetary and intellectual capital required in creating chip foundries and the fact people can corner said technology and not share it.  Even if you could design it that way, the Pareto principle would still destroy it decentralization-wise anyway.  It's 100% not possible to create a decentralized digital currency.

[OROBTC]

I'm so tired of reading posts from idiots whose only knowledge of cryptocurrency stems from Andreas Antonopolous propaganda they regurgitate as being true when in fact it's all lies:

A blockchain is not some type of magical 8th wonder of the world.  All it is is a ledger that requires a focal point for convergence.  The focal point is always something like stake, raw hash power expenditure (which is nothing more than externalized stake in practice), or some other variable that can be quantified where I can say that I have more of it than you do.  Where exactly do you see "decentralization" arising from such a paradigm?  You would need to be a fool to think so.

The only way such an idea would not be laughable at face value is if everyone who uses the system was required to be a miner, but that's obviously not possible due to massive monetary and intellectual capital required in creating chip foundries and the fact people can corner said technology and not share it.  Even if you could design it that way, the Pareto principle would still destroy it decentralization-wise anyway.  It's 100% not possible to create a decentralized digital currency.

As time goes by I come more and more to the conclusion that the correct end-point of crypto (esp. BTC) is likely gold.  Cryptos are likely to somehow be subverted by .gov one way or another in due course.  Already they monitor the Entrance and Exit Ramps (it's possible, but hard, to buy & sell BTC evading KYC/AML laws).

We now see that Bitcoin, one of 1500 + cryptos, is already at some 43% - 44% of total crypto market value.  That is some centralzation just right there.

At least competition in the crypto space is good -- it should help innovation. 

[sidhujag]

I'm so tired of reading posts from idiots whose only knowledge of cryptocurrency stems from Andreas Antonopolous propaganda they regurgitate as being true when in fact it's all lies:

A blockchain is not some type of magical 8th wonder of the world.  All it is is a ledger that requires a focal point for convergence.  The focal point is always something like stake, raw hash power expenditure (which is nothing more than externalized stake in practice), or some other variable that can be quantified where I can say that I have more of it than you do.  Where exactly do you see "decentralization" arising from such a paradigm?  You would need to be a fool to think so.

The only way such an idea would not be laughable at face value is if everyone who uses the system was required to be a miner, but that's obviously not possible due to massive monetary and intellectual capital required in creating chip foundries and the fact people can corner said technology and not share it.  Even if you could design it that way, the Pareto principle would still destroy it decentralization-wise anyway.  It's 100% not possible to create a decentralized digital currency.

As time goes by I come more and more to the conclusion that the correct end-point of crypto (esp. BTC) is likely gold.  Cryptos are likely to somehow be subverted by .gov one way or another in due course.  Already they monitor the Entrance and Exit Ramps (it's possible, but hard, to buy & sell BTC evading KYC/AML laws).

We now see that Bitcoin, one of 1500 + cryptos, is already at some 43% - 44% of total crypto market value.  That is some centralzation just right there.

At least competition in the crypto space is good -- it should help innovation. 

Gold will not work. We have already been there. Crypto is the paradaigm shift. All gold has is history.

[STT]

Competition is a positive for society and an economies overall if it favours efficiency.  Even the losers in that competition benefit so long as they stay as part of an overall successful economy.  Crypto itself needs to always allow for this success to come forward in order that the wrong path is not taken and allowing FIAT to take over the digital economy, ultimately that will serve political interests and their never ending debt and we all lose.

It's 100% not possible to create a decentralized digital currency.

What about proof of stake, this is not elitist outside of centring on accumulation of value.  To actually process transactions just requires a reliable connection to be online, not half the bar that proof of work has become.  I see that as far more decentralised then anything requiring more industrial competition and innovation.


Gold is not a redundant standard, its value is ongoing and well established is the correct view to measure it by. Its inert and not in active development, it doesnt represent growth especially unless by reference to industrial mining improvements.   Everyone should have at least 1% gold of any spare capital is my view, if all your money is used then thats fine also but it is a secure asset that does not rely on confirmation by a central body and so its part of capitalism pretty much forever

[arctic circle]

Competition is an important fact for the development of democratic societies. it is necessary to remove obstacles in front of industrial development. The crypto money market is beneficial by providing the main income to unemployed people. decentralization has become a need for humanity in recent years.

[sidhujag]

Competition is a positive for society and an economies overall if it favours efficiency.  Even the losers in that competition benefit so long as they stay as part of an overall successful economy.  Crypto itself needs to always allow for this success to come forward in order that the wrong path is not taken and allowing FIAT to take over the digital economy, ultimately that will serve political interests and their never ending debt and we all lose.

It's 100% not possible to create a decentralized digital currency.

What about proof of stake, this is not elitist outside of centring on accumulation of value.  To actually process transactions just requires a reliable connection to be online, not half the bar that proof of work has become.  I see that as far more decentralised then anything requiring more industrial competition and innovation.


Gold is not a redundant standard, its value is ongoing and well established is the correct view to measure it by. Its inert and not in active development, it doesnt represent growth especially unless by reference to industrial mining improvements.   Everyone should have at least 1% gold of any spare capital is my view, if all your money is used then thats fine also but it is a secure asset that does not rely on confirmation by a central body and so its part of capitalism pretty much forever

PoW is cheaper than PoS jfyi.. a L2 hybrid is probably a better approach.

[mstfprcn]

The guy has done nothing, but re-work the work of others since day one and get away with it.  Must be that "7000 living languages" that you guys are claiming are out there.