Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Strike Eagle 26]

@ Strike Eagle 26
Buying against the Reversals has worked out last Year on a Weekly basis. And I didn’t do it only on the Third Reversal. My observation was that: when the Price moves quick to the Reversal it will bounce off. When the Price comes slowly near the chance of electing is greater. This is just my theory and needs further proof.
MA also wrote that the speed of the move is important. Has anyone experience to share?

And thanks for the Links, read them all. And missed some of them…...

I believe that notion is correct because the
The Reversal System works best under extreme volatility — the greater the panic, the higher the accuracy.  So those reversals are offering key areas of support and resistance within any given market.
 if a major reversal is generated and elected within 3 months the degree of panic and volatility will be much greater but this does not happen very often. The longer a reversal takes to be elected the lower degree of volatility thereafter.


 Etoimene,
A Cycle Inversion simply means that what should have declined flips and inverts into a rally. The turning points are the same, they simply produce successive highs. And the same is true in reverse.
A cycle inversion would have become possible if we exceeded the January high in Feb intraday but would have ultimately been confirmed if we closed February above the close for the month of January.

See link below on how to detect whether a cycle inversion is happening or not
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/defining-a-cycle-inversion/

"corrections are confined to a maximum of 3 timing intervals."
This is exactly what happened on the Dow where January was a turning point and the correction was over by April(unit of 3) where we hit an intraday low.
"A failure to make new highs and a penetration of the February low AFTER April would imply a correction moving into probably July."(unit of 6) Which would of indicated a change in trend and not a mere reaction.

 


This is The Golden Rule of Reactions
"That fundamental principle is where do we draw the line between a change in trend and a mere reaction. That line is drawn in units of 2 to 3 maximum"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-golden-rule-of-reactions/

 
"Bullish and bearish markets have empirical nominal durations that last specific time units (days, weeks, months, years):  Bullish: 7-11-14-21 time units  Bearish: 2-3-5-6-10-12-18 time units "

 In order to understand more about cyclical analysis I recommend you read one of the most important and revealing writings by Armstrong in my opinion "It's Just Time" where Armstrong goes into great detail.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf

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[whizzledog]

was generated 3 times from different price action events.

Generated, not elected.

Yes, but......
QUOTE
Double Reversals materialize a few times during the course of one year on a daily level, on a weekly level they may only develop once every two or three years. As for the Triple Reversal, we saw this live only once in the US Treasury Bond futures in 1989. Otherwise, this Triple Reversal has not been generated in any US market on any level since 1929!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/


if you actual look at the
Dow                               1x Double Weekly,   1x Double Monthly.
EURUSD 2x Double Daily, 2x Double Weekly,   1x Double Monthly
Gold                               1x Double Weekly,    1x Tripple Monthly

this seems to be very often.....double weekly = every 2-3 years, tripple only once happend.....are you sure?

[footlong24seven]

Ok guys. We're about to hit 27K.

What does Marty's magic machine say? /s

For real though. I'm personally using fibonacci fan projections and they show 28k as resistance with minimum 27.2k. What happens then, will it be another pullback like the last 2x we hit these levels, or will the Euro elections cause a melt-up?

Currently have my chips down on October $26 YINN calls for a trade deal (eventually), and I believe I caught the falling knife buying XLV on Thursday morning.

The XLV precisely hit the fib pivots on all 3 legs down. The precision is becoming something more than just a curiosity. I've had my eye on this for some time and from what I've seen it's very accurate almost matching Marty's/Socrates's reversals.

They continue to say the reversals are generated from "physics" - even the charlatan in the earlier post this week. Not even gonna bother looking up his name.

Well, is this some fucking mystery or is it possible given the information freely available it's possible we can reconstruct Socrates on our own?

Unless Marty has some secret to the universe that nobody else knows about, shouldn't it be entirely plausible to use chaos theory, complex dynamics, gravity, thermodynamics, electrodynamics, etc and computers to simulate some sort of connection between all this?

One thing I WHOLLY agree with Marty about is that markets are absolutely FRACTAL and self-referencing (relativity).

Anyway, main question is what to do when we (probably) hit 27K? Fibs say 28k+.

Appreciate bike, MA, and the others that regularly contribute and keep alive this thread.

Happy Easter 

[Strike Eagle 26]

@footlong24seven

If you had read models and methodologies(seminar edition)
https://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/05/manual-models.pdf
 you would know Fibonacci fails to provide definitive targets. So of course your price targets are way way off, all the resistance currently lies at the 26700 level.
You want to call people charlatans but have nothing to back it up.
(I am not claiming to my some special knowledge I am simply following the reversal system in conjunction with the array.)


 Main resistance on the Dow stands at the next weekly bullish 26769.17 which should cap the market. we have the next daily bullish at 26709.95. lets see how well your Fibonacci fan projections stand up against the reversal system.

[Thekees]

There was an other directional trade today in OIL today: An opening above 6390 would imply the directional change would be a rally, a close above 6424 would warn of a rally until the next turning point.

I missed it because by the time I checked the market this morning (Central europe) price had already moved 2.5%!
That´s 8/8 so far.

[etoimene]

May be good short if it closes below  6424? ?!?!?

[etoimene]

Can someone shed some light on turning points and actual high/low alignment?
According to the document
https://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/05/manual-models.pdf
that Strike Eagle posted
high/low should happen in the same period when turning point happens, unless some higher time frame invalidates it.

In
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays/

"As illustrated here, sometimes the highest closing and the intraday can be as much as 4 units of time apart in separation. "

So, are turning points calculated on close or intraday?

[etoimene]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-the-end-of-cryptocurrencies/

" A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area."

I don't see that drop. Au contraire!

Anyone think it is possible to see BTC that low?

[MA_talk]

MA_Talk You claim to have been following Armstrong for decades yet have misunderstood even what a panic cycle is please explain to me again since you are such an expert?

.....

 That’s not true all you have to  do is type into google: "panic cycle" Armstrong Economics
You can also go to his website and type in the search bar. "panic cycle" and you be able to read just about everything he ever said about it.


In summary
70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.

"The Panic Cycle can also be a big move in one direction, but they are often outside reversals meaning that they can exceed the previous high and then penetrate the previous low"

 So for example The month of February 2019 was a panic cycle on the Dow since it was a big move in one direction. I recall many posts of you saying the month of Feb was not a panic cycle…


"The major Cycle of Political Change appears to be the duration of 224 years In which there are 26 periods of 8.615 years."
Source(http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/how-all-systems-can-collapse-overnight-709.pdf)

 Just not so sure about your calculation on  the 26 year frequency other than it is 8.6 x 3 = 25.8

StrikeEagle,

Based on the above definition of panic cycle, and using Feb as a reference for a fast one way move, I used 3.5% as the monthly gain or loss.

Below is what I did using DIA as the Dow Jones for the checking the validity of February panic cycle, and all of these months SHOULD have been called by Armstrong as panic cycles, But I know for sure he did NOT call 2019 Jan.
2019 Feb
2019 Jan
2018 Dec
2018 Oct, outside month (exceeding both low & high of prior month)
2018 Jul
2018 Mar
2018 Feb
2018 Jan
2017 Nov
2017 Oct
 
Between 2017 October to 2019 April (in 29 months), 10 months above out of 29 months SHOULD have been called by Armstrong as panic cycles.  That is MORE than one third of the time.  That showed that if your criteria for stating Feb 2019 was a panic cycle, that is simply AWFULLY loose.  As an exaggeration, it's almost like predicting that the next person that comes through the door will be male.  Even without doing much, anybody could just keep saying that every month will be a PANIC CYCLE, would have gotten more than 1/3 correct.

Furthermore, based on your breakdown on percentage, such "panic cycle" information is extremely hard to be used for making any money even when the information is accurate, because Armstrong never tells you the direction of the market, or whether it is going to be a high or low.  So 30% of that breakdown, even assuming that you know the direction instead of an outside month, cannot be traded because it could be an outside month, where you could get killed on both directions.  The better trade should have been betting on the 70% of the time as an outside month, and LONG both call/put with strike price closer to middle range, I believe.  That would have been a losing trade, given your loose definition.

If Armstrong's definition for these terms are such loose (so that he can be "correct" time after time), the information is simply NOT very helpful.




By the way, don't ask me why the raw data downloaded from Yahoo had so many fractional digits.

10/1/2017   224.190002   234.699997   224.020004   233.630005   226.153091   50038700   4.38%
11/1/2017   234.600006   243.490005   232.649994   242.839996   235.254181   61406200   3.94%
12/1/2017   243.139999   248.610001   239.410004   247.380005   240.227097   73664300   1.87%
1/1/2018   248.339996   265.929993   247.229996   261.440002   254.461792   102194100   5.68%
2/1/2018   259.950012   262.899994   233.759995   250.199997   243.656693   183041700   -4.30%
3/1/2018   250.210007   254.720001   234.850006   241.399994   235.688904   121375800   -3.52%
4/1/2018   240.330002   248.479996   233.199997   241.539993   236.256378   107013400   0.06%
5/1/2018   240.690002   250.669998   235.119995   244.179993   238.966553   82708700   1.09%
6/1/2018   246.139999   254.160004   239.830002   242.729996   238.217728   99747700   -0.59%
7/1/2018   240.919998   255.679993   240.619995   254.169998   249.817841   75848400   4.71%
8/1/2018   253.899994   261.769989   249.860001   259.850006   255.724808   79662700   2.23%
9/1/2018   259.220001   267.609985   257.820007   264.399994   260.750702   63102800   1.75%
10/1/2018   266.100006   269.279999   241.050003   251.190002   248.230576   163946700   -5.00%
11/1/2018   252.149994   262.970001   242.710007   255.509995   252.654037   93217400   1.72%
12/1/2018   260.170013   260.299988   216.970001   233.199997   231.142029   136737400   -8.73%
1/1/2019   229.270004   251   226.360001   250.119995   248.581711   93233700   7.26%
2/1/2019   250.669998   262.359985   249.130005   259.279999   257.869446   60166600   3.66%
3/1/2019   261.149994   261.679993   252.460007   259.130005   258.427185   88451200   -0.06%
4/1/2019   261.230011   265.929993   260.579987   265.559998   265.401367   47338400   2.48%

[MA_talk]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-the-end-of-cryptocurrencies/

" A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area."

I don't see that drop. Au contraire!

Anyone think it is possible to see BTC that low?

https://web.archive.org/web/20190102141558/https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-the-end-of-cryptocurrencies/


etoimene,

  Based on Yahoo's data, 2018 BTC closed at 3,747.39   .

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?period1=1524419623&period2=1555955623&interval=1mo&filter=history&frequency=1mo 

I personally don't see how BTC could drop back to 775, due to the recent ETF approvals.  But Armstrong did make that claim, and possibly extremely few of us will even remember his claim at the end of 2019, EXCEPT for the few people who bothered to make some trades, but possibly losing money in the trades.  I assure you that it will be all good at the end of year.  It's like nobody bothers to check whether February 2019 was a panic cycle, except for the people who try to trade off it and lost money.

But anyway, the year is not done, and so anything could happen.  I'm still waiting for this year to finish, to check on another of Armstrong's claim.



If anyone can post arrays + reversals for the daily or weekly intervals, we can collect a lot more data and analyze Armstrong's models.

[Strike Eagle 26]

@MA_talk

"But I know for sure he did NOT call 2019 Jan. " Armstrong may not have called it but
 the Array on ask-socrates certainty called January 2019 as a panic cycle. Not sure how you can be sure of anything since you have not gone through all the private blog posts which go back to about 2016 where Martin gives specific numbers(reversals) you could of traded on. That gives you a complete track record for the last 3 years all the evidence you need is there or are you afraid of what you may find?

The array is not going to pick up every panic cycle just indicate where there is a high probability of one occurring.
You would never trade based on a panic cycle you only trade on the reversals. If you want to disprove Armstrong the only thing you should be talking about is the reversal system because that gives you specific buy or sell signals which you have claimed Armstrong's system does not do.


"because Armstrong never tells you the direction of the market" You really are digging your own grave here… I don't think I can even take you seriously after making such an absurd statement.

"If anyone can post arrays + reversals for the daily or weekly intervals, we can collect a lot more data and analyse Armstrong's models." You have 3 years' worth of private blog posts and Armstrong has posted the reversals and array's countless of times during that period. Ask-Socrates only launched in 2016 (https://ask-socrates.com)

[MA_talk]

@StrikeEagle,

  I'm merely pointing out how poor your summary on the panic cycle is.

--------
In summary
70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.
--------

  That includes 30% of the past 29 months.

  So if Armstrong did "accurately" predict that February was a panic cycle using the above super-lax criteria, that is NOT saying much at all.


  If Armstrong "does" give direction every time, for the record, for the May month, do you want to state that

1. Market going to make a temp high.
or
2. Market going to make a temp low.

  That is obviously on a monthly basis.

[Strike Eagle 26]

The reversals tell you the direction but only if they are elected on a closing basis, that gives you an ACTUAL BUY/SELL SIGNAL.  You need to think before you post again this is getting embarrassing. Why do you keep saying if Armstrong predicted or If Armstrong does give direction when Socrates (AI) is the one making all the forecasts?

[MA_talk]

Thank God, I finally found someone with a lot of background….
I usually trade the Dow, EUR-USD and Gold on Weekly basis. But I used the Advanced buy against the Reversals Strategy. And I made some Money and then lost it again….
So I decided to research more and change the strategy.

If I understand you correctly.
You are trade on the Daily level, and as soon as a reversal is elected you open a position and not trade if a cluster is appearing…Do you look at the arrays for the Entry as well? Are you only trading in trend direction?
The Problem on the Daily basis is the arrays are telling me 80% of the time, today (whatever day it is) is the Turning Point.

Could you just tell me exactly how you follow the Reversals. For Example in the Dow we had a Weekly Bearish on march 8th. But the price moved up. The Daily Arrays refer to the 13th. As Turning point, but at this time you would have lost the Money. On the Daily we elected 3 Daily Bearish march 22th and the price never came back to the 25.518. Afterwards we elected the next Daily Bearish on march 26th and then came the move up….

So you have to do more than simply buy when a Bullish Reversal is elected and sell when a bearish reversal is elected…..But what?
I really don’t see how I can play the reversals right….


Also i am not sure about a statment from MA about the Dow(13th March): there is no rush to jump in, until we take out the fourth reversal….But 4 Reversals mean a move to the other direction. So what he wants to tell us?

I would follow the reversal system which will tell you the direction and let that be the guide since Armstrong has said the array is not 100% but I do find the directional change to be very good. The market may move against you in the short term but the reversals will ultimately define the trend.

if you going to enter the market you could buy or sell against a reversal if tested on the day/week/month of a  turning point so for example on the Dow monthly array we have a turning point in May which also has a directional change which suggests we could get a spike high or low that month as Armstrong has suggested as well. You then would need to find what week in May this turning point(high or low) may occur which appears to be the 6th of May and you could simply buy or sell against whatever reversal it is testing at that time and if the reversal is not elected then time is up and that should mark the high or low. 

So let's say we elect  3 weekly bearish reversals going into May but hold the 4th on the day / week or month of a turning point you could simply buy against the 4th bearish reversal since time is up. The Dow has a lot of weekly bearish reversals(support) at the 24300 area.

For the week of  March the 4th we elected a weekly bearish and we also at the same time elected a weekly bullish just below at the 25200 level which we tested and then moved up from there. For the 22nd of March yes we elected 3 daily bearish reversals and on the 25th we hit a low and came close to testing the next bearish reversal at 25312. It don’t believe we did actually elect a bullish reversal on the 26th I have screenshots, you need to keep checking especially the daily reversals since it does change quite a lot.

There were 2 daily bullish reversals elected on the Nasdaq yesterday with the main one at 7998 which implied the market would move up today with the next one at 8057.27 so that was the area you needed to sell which was functioning as the resistance level


Regarding the 4th  reversal he said there is no rush to jump in until we elect the 4th weekly bullish reversal which stands at 26951.82. we have been consolidating this year and we have not yet exceeded the high of 2018 so Armstrong tells us that Only when ALL FOUR Reversals have been elected do we consider that there has been an important shift in trend. if/when that 4th reversal is elected this market will begin to explode to the upside once again and hit new highs.
 
 as you move closer to the date the more accurate the array will be such as the Dow monthly array was previously saying June was the turning point and now it is May.  you may need to take a screenshot of the daily array every so often and the weekly/monthly so you can easily see the turning points before they change since the height of the bars are relative.

Armstrong basically explains why the bars change and why we see such big changes especially on the daily array.

"The first thing you should understand is that the charting is proportional, and not explicit. For example, lets say that January had 30 hits from 72 models. That would be the highest bar. Then January passes and May show up as the highest bar when it was previously half that of January when previously charted. The bars are plotted on a relative basis to the time frame selected. So if the highest bar has 15 hits within that 12 units of time, it will be at the top. As time moves forward and a new target enters the window with 25 hits, it will now appear at the top and the bar with 15 hits will appear as if it diminished. So the charting is RELATIVE and not explicit."

Base on the above quote from you (see the big font), your understanding of Armstrong's model is similar to mine.  You SAID that it could be a spike high or low.

The thing with Armstrong is that he doesn't tell you WHICH.

Hence, my statement of that Armstrong does not tell you whether it's a high or low.

Since you understand Armstrong's models much better, at the minimum, can you at least pick one of the choices (high or low) that I listed?

If you who understand Armstrong so well cannot take a pick with firm conviction, how can majority of the people on this forum or Armstrong's subscribers discern the direction and trade properly with profits?

[Strike Eagle 26]

We have a weekly bearish at 26301.80 and a weekly bullish at 26769.19, you will know the direction once we start to elect weekly bullish or bearish reversals. You don't have the pro service so you will forever remain in the dark.

[etoimene]

his claim at the end of 2019,

It should not necessarily be at 2019. "When" is not defined at his post.

@Strike Eagle 26

What if Dow makes a high in May but does not elect any reversal?

[MA_talk]

his claim at the end of 2019,

It should not necessarily be at 2019. "When" is not defined at his post.

I understand, but normal people will state the year, or the actual timeframe if it was not the year 2019.

For example, one would say that it will drop to 775 by 2020, etc.  If nothing is said, then 2019 would be implied.

If he is using indefinite timeframe, then anybody can make any predictions.  I can say all cryptocurrency, gold and stock market will drop to zero, since eventually Sun will enlarge and become red dwarf, engulfing the entire Earth, and everything will pretty much go to zero $USD.

So my point is that by making a statement without ANY timeframe, that statement is essentially meaningless.  Since I'm sure that Armstrong was trying to make a point, my best guess is that he implied the year 2019.

[etoimene]

OK, makes sense.
I guess yearly array would be required for timing.

[luckyplate]

My source say a pullback likely at 26500 to 800 level .

We have a weekly bearish at 26301.80 and a weekly bullish at 26769.19, you will know the direction once we start to elect weekly bullish or bearish reversals. You don't have the pro service so you will forever remain in the dark.

[Thekees]

was generated 3 times from different price action events.

Generated, not elected.

Yes, but......
QUOTE
Double Reversals materialize a few times during the course of one year on a daily level, on a weekly level they may only develop once every two or three years. As for the Triple Reversal, we saw this live only once in the US Treasury Bond futures in 1989. Otherwise, this Triple Reversal has not been generated in any US market on any level since 1929!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/


if you actual look at the
Dow                               1x Double Weekly,   1x Double Monthly.
EURUSD 2x Double Daily, 2x Double Weekly,   1x Double Monthly
Gold                               1x Double Weekly,    1x Tripple Monthly

this seems to be very often.....double weekly = every 2-3 years, tripple only once happend.....are you sure?

I also found it strange that there were so many of these. I see them everywhere, sometimes 2 minors and 1 major reversal on a weekly, maybe he means maj reversals only?