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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 617630 times)
whizzledog
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April 18, 2019, 02:49:53 PM
Last edit: April 18, 2019, 04:33:17 PM by whizzledog
 #5141

This is the explanation....

This is a reveral of significance because the number was generated 3 times from different price action events. Reverals which appear more than once are significant as they signal important price barriers that when breached indicate a change of trend is in place.

This is f.e. on the Monthly Level of Gold….The double/ tripple  Reversals are to rare….
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Strike Eagle 26
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April 18, 2019, 04:39:14 PM
 #5142

MA_Talk You claim to have been following Armstrong for decades yet have misunderstood even what a panic cycle is please explain to me again since you are such an expert?
and also what else do you have on the charlatan that is Armstrong you must have exposed him I recall you had many points about how you had exposed Armstrong as a charlatan please put forth your views? even though you have already stated you stopped following Armstrong since 2015

I can't remember exactly when I stopped following Armstrong.  2015 was just the approximate time.  Before that however, I read every single article available from him.

Since you have also read his stuffs since 1995, could I check with you on my following understanding of Armstrong's stuffs, and see if they are the correct understanding:

1. Nothing in the market or even in the world is really random.  What has been set in motion decades ago, cannot be changed.  Armstrong's Socrates observe all global events and capital flow (unlike the fishbowl economists), and the forecast/predictions around the world are obviously interlinked and inter-related.

2. The number 26 is from 52/2, and 52 is from 8.6x6=51.2, and 224 is from 8.6x26=223.6.


I never claim that I'm an expert on Armstrong.  I just quote Armstrong, because I don't want to make the stuffs up.  You can explain what you think Armstrong means by Panic cycle, but my understanding is that panic cycle will be a period with high volatility, and could be either up or down, and almost certainly exceeds either the highest or the lowest point achieved in the previous period (day/week/month/year).  I'm sure Armstrong may have explained that somewhere, but since he writes so much, very often it's hard to find something unless some notes were taken.


It's getting too late at night.  I will re-post those previous points that I have made when I find time.  I also want to dig out the URL links, which will take quite some time and research.  I do NOT want to make stuffs up, and talk about Armstrong just based on my personal memory.



" I'm sure Armstrong may have explained that somewhere, but since he writes so much, very often it's hard to find something unless some notes were taken."

 That’s not true all you have to  do is type into google: "panic cycle" Armstrong Economics
You can also go to his website and type in the search bar. "panic cycle" and you be able to read just about everything he ever said about it.


In summary
70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.

"The Panic Cycle can also be a big move in one direction, but they are often outside reversals meaning that they can exceed the previous high and then penetrate the previous low"

 So for example The month of February 2019 was a panic cycle on the Dow since it was a big move in one direction. I recall many posts of you saying the month of Feb was not a panic cycle…


"The major Cycle of Political Change appears to be the duration of 224 years In which there are 26 periods of 8.615 years."
Source(http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/how-all-systems-can-collapse-overnight-709.pdf)

 Just not so sure about your calculation on  the 26 year frequency other than it is 8.6 x 3 = 25.8

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April 18, 2019, 05:04:38 PM
 #5143

For Panic Cycles, being a reversal or a large move means that opening a strangle should net profit pretty much every time, no? The reason is because if it is a reversal, you'll be able to catch the top or bottom to exceed the previous session timeframe, and if it is just a large move, it will exceed the expected move that is priced into an option's premium. My question is, should we EVER trade based on the timing model, or not? If so, when? Or should we trade ONLY on Reversals, and if so, when? For example, elected Reversals only, or against Reversals too sometimes? I'd just want to trade the types of trades that have 100% success rate, as Armstrong says never to anticipate, let the market show the way. I think only Major elected Reversals can do that.
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April 18, 2019, 05:05:40 PM
 #5144

I think what Armstrong doesn't say is that financial losses will increase after this October and that will encourage more mandate to Corbyn. For this reason, of course, Corbyn will make concessions to allow it to unite its strength, but then the economy will play its true purpose. However it is fear, we will see how all this happened and the extent to which this transmission is really severe. We all wait to see if it's useless or not.

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April 18, 2019, 05:44:55 PM
 #5145

Today was another directional change on the USDCAD where the direction was given. An open above 1.33240 would mean a rally and it opened 1.33413 on my charts and it is now at 1.33832 so a decent move so far. A close above  1.33730 will mean a rally till the next turning point which seems to be Monday or Tuesday since they have the same aggregate bar high, they also have directional changes.

This is now 7/7 correct so far. You like being an active trader just check socrates every morning and place the trade according to the open (unless it is to close and your data differs from Socrates).

I wonder where these numbers come from. They don´t seem to be reversals nor are they the closing price of the day before, or pivot points, no idea.

Anyway 7/7 could still be just a streak, lets see how many in a row are correct. If anyone finds one let me know so we can keep track.
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April 18, 2019, 06:07:06 PM
 #5146

Today was another directional change on the USDCAD where the direction was given. An open above 1.33240 would mean a rally and it opened 1.33413 on my charts and it is now at 1.33832 so a decent move so far. A close above  1.33730 will mean a rally till the next turning point which seems to be Monday or Tuesday since they have the same aggregate bar high, they also have directional changes.

This is now 7/7 correct so far. You like being an active trader just check socrates every morning and place the trade according to the open (unless it is to close and your data differs from Socrates).

I wonder where these numbers come from. They don´t seem to be reversals nor are they the closing price of the day before, or pivot points, no idea.

Anyway 7/7 could still be just a streak, lets see how many in a row are correct. If anyone finds one let me know so we can keep track.

This is interesting! So your criteria is take only trades on open based on what Socrates says, eg an open above or below a certain number implies a directional forecast move.
How do you use the DCs or turning points here? I was under the impression that they appear to change and thus it would not be possible to hold overnight. Do you only trade intraday? Screenshots of the process and the Pro level would be nice too if possible. And yor mechanical criteria in using Socrates? Very interested in seeing how this goes.
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April 18, 2019, 06:48:08 PM
 #5147

Today was another directional change on the USDCAD where the direction was given. An open above 1.33240 would mean a rally and it opened 1.33413 on my charts and it is now at 1.33832 so a decent move so far. A close above  1.33730 will mean a rally till the next turning point which seems to be Monday or Tuesday since they have the same aggregate bar high, they also have directional changes.

This is now 7/7 correct so far. You like being an active trader just check socrates every morning and place the trade according to the open (unless it is to close and your data differs from Socrates).

I wonder where these numbers come from. They don´t seem to be reversals nor are they the closing price of the day before, or pivot points, no idea.

Anyway 7/7 could still be just a streak, lets see how many in a row are correct. If anyone finds one let me know so we can keep track.

This is interesting! So your criteria is take only trades on open based on what Socrates says, eg an open above or below a certain number implies a directional forecast move.
How do you use the DCs or turning points here? I was under the impression that they appear to change and thus it would not be possible to hold overnight. Do you only trade intraday? Screenshots of the process and the Pro level would be nice too if possible. And yor mechanical criteria in using Socrates? Very interested in seeing how this goes.

The DC´s do change but these messages are given on the day itself. So today on the USDCAD it said there was a directional change and gave those numbers. Socrates does not usually give these numbers, it often just says something like, Potential of decline/rally etc.

Strike Eagle 26
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April 18, 2019, 06:51:00 PM
 #5148

For Panic Cycles, being a reversal or a large move means that opening a strangle should net profit pretty much every time, no? The reason is because if it is a reversal, you'll be able to catch the top or bottom to exceed the previous session timeframe, and if it is just a large move, it will exceed the expected move that is priced into an option's premium. My question is, should we EVER trade based on the timing model, or not? If so, when? Or should we trade ONLY on Reversals, and if so, when? For example, elected Reversals only, or against Reversals too sometimes? I'd just want to trade the types of trades that have 100% success rate, as Armstrong says never to anticipate, let the market show the way. I think only Major elected Reversals can do that.


 Armstrong has explained  this.
"You don’t get time from the reversals, we are merging it with time from the standpoint of when they are elected.
The Reversals are definitive numbers, but they are separate and distinct from TIME. Reversals do not tell us WHEN they will be elected."

So you can simply wait for a given reversal to be elected without having to even watch the array since the purpose of The Forecast Array is to enable you to quickly see when the computer models are looking for ideal highs or lows in addition to important changes in trends and volatility.

 Armstrong has said the arrays are not a 100%. But they are very close. And the turning points can take place on an intraday or closing basis.
 

If you want close to 100% certainty then yes only buy or sell when a reversal has actually been elected for the close.
Quote "Generally when a reversal point is elected but the price is substantially below or above the number, the market will retest the reversal before it resumes the indicated trend. Reversals that are elected by only a few ticks offer the best indication of immediate follow-through."

The reversals will always be the deciding factor not the array. The reversals can be used in isolation but certainly not the array.

But if you want the most precision then only trade singular markets
Quote
"The metals, currencies and bonds have a high degree of precision. Market movements will bounce precisely on these specific Reversal points. Stock indexes, on the other hand, will find that absolute precision is rare.  Since the S&P is introducing a series of 500 variables into the equation, this tends to suggest that absolute precision begins to suffer with an increased number of variables"


In May it appears we have a significant turning point on the Dow and various other markets so if we test a weekly/monthly reversal most likely in the 24 000 zone you could easily trade the reversals in reverse and buy against those bearish reversals which will mean you are using both  time and the price together with the next turning point being July which should produce the opposite event.


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April 18, 2019, 07:29:34 PM
 #5149

For Panic Cycles, being a reversal or a large move means that opening a strangle should net profit pretty much every time, no? The reason is because if it is a reversal, you'll be able to catch the top or bottom to exceed the previous session timeframe, and if it is just a large move, it will exceed the expected move that is priced into an option's premium. My question is, should we EVER trade based on the timing model, or not? If so, when? Or should we trade ONLY on Reversals, and if so, when? For example, elected Reversals only, or against Reversals too sometimes? I'd just want to trade the types of trades that have 100% success rate, as Armstrong says never to anticipate, let the market show the way. I think only Major elected Reversals can do that.


 Armstrong has explained  this.
"You don’t get time from the reversals, we are merging it with time from the standpoint of when they are elected.
The Reversals are definitive numbers, but they are separate and distinct from TIME. Reversals do not tell us WHEN they will be elected."

So you can simply wait for a given reversal to be elected without having to even watch the array since the purpose of The Forecast Array is to enable you to quickly see when the computer models are looking for ideal highs or lows in addition to important changes in trends and volatility.

 Armstrong has said the arrays are not a 100%. But they are very close. And the turning points can take place on an intraday or closing basis.
 

If you want close to 100% certainty then yes only buy or sell when a reversal has actually been elected for the close.
Quote "Generally when a reversal point is elected but the price is substantially below or above the number, the market will retest the reversal before it resumes the indicated trend. Reversals that are elected by only a few ticks offer the best indication of immediate follow-through."

The reversals will always be the deciding factor not the array. The reversals can be used in isolation but certainly not the array.

But if you want the most precision then only trade singular markets
Quote
"The metals, currencies and bonds have a high degree of precision. Market movements will bounce precisely on these specific Reversal points. Stock indexes, on the other hand, will find that absolute precision is rare.  Since the S&P is introducing a series of 500 variables into the equation, this tends to suggest that absolute precision begins to suffer with an increased number of variables"


In May it appears we have a significant turning point on the Dow and various other markets so if we test a weekly/monthly reversal most likely in the 24 000 zone you could easily trade the reversals in reverse and buy against those bearish reversals which will mean you are using both  time and the price together with the next turning point being July which should produce the opposite event.




Yes, I remember this, but the thing is, there was a turning point in February around the 25100 mark where there was a Reversal and Armstrong said that a Weekly close over that number would be where he would be wrong. That is just a recent one but there are many other examples where the turning point did not generate a high or low on a closing or intraday basis. So to avoid those types of trades, it would be safer to avoid them, and only go for the 'conviction' trades where the number of possibilities are reduced to a single event. We need to find a way to reduce the number of possibilities that can be generated in order to reduce the chances of trades that could have went the other way. For example, if a turning point doesn't make a high or a low, we can't trade it.

I think currencies and commodities only in that case- Thekees went 7/7 on some setups and mentioned the currency trade for today, which is quite impressive by any standard. Those sorts of 'good' trades where the setups are not ambiguous and can only have 1 outcome of the possibilities that Socrates generates.
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April 19, 2019, 02:44:00 AM
 #5150

Good day everyone;

Found this forum (if that's what it's called) from a person who I am helping to understand Armstrong's models/methods.

Read some entries here and find some over-think it. I see the typical short term/minute investors or some just can't wrap their heads around it all.  It's an awesome world which ever seat you're in.

If it helps anyone here, I'm way to lazy for short-term bounces. Yet I find myself doing global market analysis 60 to 80 hours a week sometimes.  Been full-time for 5-1/2 years.

Reviewing last year starting in the Nasdaq August 2018 the decline began and a full bearish tone was joined by the Dow in September and the low was called just after Christmas.  This was an easy 40% return, more for those really acute.
From early January till present it's been one of the best bullish runs in history, a 50% to 100% return just using leveraged ETF'S which is the easiest for anyone.  We did have a bobble first week in March but Socrates found the bullish sentiment returned.  Nothing has change besides the Russell showing weakness which could be the first shoe to drop or simply a higher low.  Until record highs are broken there is a chance for a turn down in each of the big 3 but it's bullish till that happens.

Been investing as a hobby since 1981, never got serious till maybe 15 years ago but as of 2014 Armstrong has put confidence under my belt.  Still love ever minute of it.

Yes I'm getting old.  But not yet.

I agree that the low was called near perfectly, and I traded that one, but remember that the call for a high in February was also made and it didn't pan out. It was a trade setup because 'time ran out' and it was testing the Weekly Bullish Reversal on highs and thus timing and price was combined in an apparently perfect short. But then it elected the Reversal and kept going up. I trade short term simply because I find it easier, but I would trade the longer term Armstrong stuff too. The problem is how to differentiate between the calls that would work and the others that would lose money. StrikeEagle says the most consistent ones are Reversals that are elected by a small amount on single type markets like commodities and currencies. So if we focus on those without timing (because timing doesn't consistently pick highs/lows on an either intraday or closing basis), then it may be possible to win consistently. We just need to have a systemic way of making the trades where there is only 1 possible outcome of the trade. I say there can only be one, because sometimes there may be cycle inversion, or no alignment, or no Reversal election, etc. that can make the trade go in any direction. But to get close to 100%, only a narrow election of a Reversal on commodities or currencies is possible (from my understanding).
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April 19, 2019, 07:03:23 AM
 #5151

Another thing that 100% works, as far as I can tell (data for 1 Year), is the 1% Rule. In the new Version it is now the 1,5% Rule, but I have seen this worked out too with 0,98%.
I can rembember the first time a Weekly Bull was elected and the Price was going down. Then I realized the Monthly Bullish was 1% away and of course it tested the Monthly Bullish again in 2 Weeks.
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April 19, 2019, 07:22:26 AM
 #5152

@ Strike Eagle 26
Buying against the Reversals has worked out last Year on a Weekly basis. And I didn’t do it only on the Third Reversal. My observation was that: when the Price moves quick to the Reversal it will bounce off. When the Price comes slowly near the chance of electing is greater. This is just my theory and needs further proof.
MA also wrote that the speed of the move is important. Has anyone experience to share?

And thanks for the Links, read them all. And missed some of them…...
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April 19, 2019, 10:28:37 AM
 #5153

was generated 3 times from different price action events.


Generated, not elected.
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April 19, 2019, 10:35:26 AM
 #5154

Bikefront Quote "I agree that the low was called near perfectly, and I traded that one, but remember that the call for a high in February was also made and it didn't pan out. "

 February was in fact a turning point because we did form a temporary high with a retest of support. Armstrong said on his private blog  on Thursday 28 Feb

 " As suspected, the Dow elected two Weekly Bullish Reversals last week which gave us the pop. We did not elect the 4th and the market pulled back to avoid the Monthly Bullish Reversal. This is all consistent with the view that we are still consolidating and February can remain as a temporary high with a retest of support. March appear volatile so be on guard for retest of the support"
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April 19, 2019, 10:56:53 AM
 #5155


 Armstrong has said the arrays are not a 100%. But they are very close. And the turning points can take place on an intraday or closing basis.
 


To add to confusion, there is also possibility of cycle inversion.

I would like to see some clarification of that. How to detect that inversion is happening?
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April 19, 2019, 11:04:39 AM
 #5156

" If you are expect just BUY and SELL without comprehending how everything functions, then this is not the model for you. "

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays/
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April 19, 2019, 01:33:45 PM
 #5157


 February was in fact a turning point because we did form a temporary high with a retest of support.

What was support in this case?
It was obviously very far above monthly bearish reversal.
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April 19, 2019, 02:06:34 PM
Last edit: April 19, 2019, 02:59:09 PM by Strike Eagle 26
 #5158

@ Strike Eagle 26
Buying against the Reversals has worked out last Year on a Weekly basis. And I didn’t do it only on the Third Reversal. My observation was that: when the Price moves quick to the Reversal it will bounce off. When the Price comes slowly near the chance of electing is greater. This is just my theory and needs further proof.
MA also wrote that the speed of the move is important. Has anyone experience to share?

And thanks for the Links, read them all. And missed some of them…...

I believe that notion is correct because the
The Reversal System works best under extreme volatility — the greater the panic, the higher the accuracy.  So those reversals are offering key areas of support and resistance within any given market.
 if a major reversal is generated and elected within 3 months the degree of panic and volatility will be much greater but this does not happen very often. The longer a reversal takes to be elected the lower degree of volatility thereafter.


 Etoimene,
A Cycle Inversion simply means that what should have declined flips and inverts into a rally. The turning points are the same, they simply produce successive highs. And the same is true in reverse.
A cycle inversion would have become possible if we exceeded the January high in Feb intraday but would have ultimately been confirmed if we closed February above the close for the month of January.

See link below on how to detect whether a cycle inversion is happening or not
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/defining-a-cycle-inversion/

"corrections are confined to a maximum of 3 timing intervals."
This is exactly what happened on the Dow where January was a turning point and the correction was over by April(unit of 3) where we hit an intraday low.
"A failure to make new highs and a penetration of the February low AFTER April would imply a correction moving into probably July."(unit of 6) Which would of indicated a change in trend and not a mere reaction.

 


This is The Golden Rule of Reactions
"That fundamental principle is where do we draw the line between a change in trend and a mere reaction. That line is drawn in units of 2 to 3 maximum"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-golden-rule-of-reactions/

 
"Bullish and bearish markets have empirical nominal durations that last specific time units (days, weeks, months, years):  Bullish: 7-11-14-21 time units  Bearish: 2-3-5-6-10-12-18 time units "

 In order to understand more about cyclical analysis I recommend you read one of the most important and revealing writings by Armstrong in my opinion "It's Just Time" where Armstrong goes into great detail.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf
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April 19, 2019, 03:16:39 PM
 #5159


 February was in fact a turning point because we did form a temporary high with a retest of support.

What was support in this case?
It was obviously very far above monthly bearish reversal.

It also closed above the 25100 number at the end of the week. I'd just like to see a few real-time trades posted so I can understand how and when to trade and when not to. I was under the impression that although there was a high, the turning point against the Weekly Bullish Reversal should have pushed the market down. Armstrong was saying that is where the high should be, as that's where the Daily was ending and the Weekly begins. Combined with the turning point, I expected it to go down. StrikeEagle says it formed a temp high and retested support, but the point is that the Weekly was elected. So as I mentioned, the best trades are when there is only 1 possible direction for the market after fulfilling a set of predetermined criteria.
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April 20, 2019, 11:48:22 AM
 #5160

was generated 3 times from different price action events.


Generated, not elected.

Yes, but......
QUOTE
Double Reversals materialize a few times during the course of one year on a daily level, on a weekly level they may only develop once every two or three years. As for the Triple Reversal, we saw this live only once in the US Treasury Bond futures in 1989. Otherwise, this Triple Reversal has not been generated in any US market on any level since 1929!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/


if you actual look at the
Dow                               1x Double Weekly,   1x Double Monthly.
EURUSD 2x Double Daily, 2x Double Weekly,   1x Double Monthly
Gold                               1x Double Weekly,    1x Tripple Monthly

this seems to be very often.....double weekly = every 2-3 years, tripple only once happend.....are you sure?

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