Martin Armstrong Discussion

[AnonymousCoder]

...

I appreciate what you are doing! I understand this undertaking is a big ordeal that will take a lot of time. My only ask i's that you make it publicly available so that we can analyze your findings for ourselves. I mean what's the point of posting findings if we can't go through the data and come to the same conclusions.

I make my claims based on logic such as saying that the Socrates system does not tell the user what to trade, for how long to trade it, with what stop loss and so on. So even if we had all the data, we would still not be able to test it because there are no objective test criteria.

If nobody has historical data because the Socrates system does not provide it, then the Socrates system is flawed because it hides the historical data from us.

The burden of proof is on the Socrates system not on us.

If I do not provide the data now then that does not prove that the Socrates system is correct. If I provide the data then anybody could say my data is flawed because it cannot be corroborated because Socrates does not provide it. I could have just made it up. And as I said, it provides an attack surface where Armstrong proxies can come forward with their well known beat around the bush forecast array method where they will perhaps say that this and that weekly reversal should have been traded only for a day because there was a strong turning point on Monday.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[1714254841]

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[1714254841]

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[1714254841]

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[slaman29]

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Anyway, many thanks to all here who have opened my eyes. I'm going to start taking MA/Socrates with a tablespoon of salt from now on. Will keep my $15 subscription but no more conferences for me.

Good approach. I would recommend to search the original material that he is copying from / aggregating on his blog. He publishes 3rd party but original material that is not necessarily easy to find. One has to give him credit for that. As far as economics is concerned and the theme of western civilization declining, nothing new. Much more to learn from Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Julian Assange. The themes are loss of accountability, the fundamental problem of delegation and the need to regulate the capitalist system which is exploitative by nature. The interesting thing to me is that Assange actually has a solution: Transparency. Well, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts recommends to go to Russia. Not too bad a call when I look at their stock market. But is this an option we are looking for?

I would take anything and everything with bags of salt. The problem with paid stuff in my mind is that they want to feed you crap even though there's nothing to feed. You know I actually preferred back in the day when you paid for things and they actually told you there's nothing to deliver sometimes, because there's nothing to deliver.

They feel the pressure because they promised.

But forget the promises and there's a lot to learn from the materials. Or, if you don't believe them, a lot to be entertained about.

[DanB1]

I have been trading markets for more than 20 years but in my experience support/resistance is not 1 single point but an area of support/resistance.
But with MA's reversals, if a bullish reversal is at 100 and we close at 100.05 then we have elected it.
Not sure how you guys think about this but when I look in charts for resistance and support than I can see it mostly around certain numbers, not exactly 1 point.


Does anyone know how reversals are calculated?
I see that they are often close to general support and resistance, area's where there has been some action in the past including highs/lows, closings and/or openings.

[AnonymousCoder]

I have been trading markets for more than 20 years but in my experience support/resistance is not 1 single point but an area of support/resistance.
But with MA's reversals, if a bullish reversal is at 100 and we close at 100.05 then we have elected it.
Not sure how you guys think about this but when I look in charts for resistance and support than I can see it mostly around certain numbers, not exactly 1 point.


Does anyone know how reversals are calculated?
I see that they are often close to general support and resistance, area's where there has been some action in the past including highs/lows, closings and/or openings.

Not exactly of course because I don't have his code. Read my previous post at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51469252#msg51469252

When you get too deep into this you actually forget how to trade and become dependent / victim of this system.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

...

I appreciate what you are doing! I understand this undertaking is a big ordeal that will take a lot of time. My only ask i's that you make it publicly available so that we can analyze your findings for ourselves.  I mean what's the point of posting findings if we can't go through the data and come to the same conclusions.

I make my claims based on logic such as saying that the Socrates system does not tell the user what to trade, for how long to trade it, with what stop loss and so on. So even if we had all the data, we would still not be able to test it because there are no objective test criteria.

If nobody has historical data because the Socrates system does not provide it, then the Socrates system is flawed because it hides the historical data from us.

The burden of proof is on the Socrates system not on us.

If I do not provide the data now then that does not prove that the Socrates system is correct. If I provide the data then anybody could say my data is flawed because it cannot be corroborated because Socrates does not provide it. I could have just made it up. And as I said, it provides an attack surface where Armstrong proxies can come forward with their well known beat around the bush forecast array method where they will perhaps say that this and that weekly reversal should have been traded only for a day because there was a strong turning point on Monday.

Obviously socrates should provide historical data, but that isn't happening.  I just want to test what Martin says that the reversal system will produce the expected result within 3 time units, nothing to do with the forcast arrays.  Also, did you buy 10+ premium subscriptions for the purpose of collecting reversals? If I could buy this many subscriptions I would, but I don't have the funds.  But you have this great dataset that is going to waste because you are afraid of some criticisms from "Armstrong proxies".  It sounds like you are trying to take a scientific approach with your experiment.  Well this is how science works, you provide your results WITH underlying data so others can scutinize and design further experiments based on your results and data.  I'm trying to do this because I see a flaw in your methodology.  The methodology I am proposing fixes your flaw, and can bring further understanding to this whole reversal system

[AnonymousCoder]

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Obviously socrates should provide historical data, but that isn't happening.
...

Unsubscribe from Socrates and email them that you would be interested after they provide the historical data. It is peanuts for them. The difficulty is to generate the reports and the web GUI. Dumping the data of a system that has been around for 30 years into a text file is not worth even talking about. If they don't do it, then it is proof they have something to hide.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

...
Obviously socrates should provide historical data, but that isn't happening.
...

Unsubscribe from Socrates and email them that you would be interested after they provide the historical data. It is peanuts for them. The difficulty is to generate the reports and the web GUI. Dumping the data of a system that has been around for 30 years into a text file is not worth even talking about. If they don't do it, then it is proof they have something to hide.

I haven't never been subscribed to socrates.  I have just been very interested in his work and have looked around for some proof on his system.  Again did you really buy over 10+ premium subscriptions just to collect reversals, and then not share any of that valuable data?

[AnonymousCoder]

...
I haven't never been subscribed to socrates. I have just been very interested in his work and have looked around for some proof on his system. Again did you really buy over 10+ premium subscriptions just to collect reversals, and then not share any of that valuable data?

The reversals are in the summary reports, you don't need the premium subscription for those. The reversals have been available before the premium version came out. Therefore, we can go back in time further.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

...
I haven't never been subscribed to socrates.  I have just been very interested in his work and have looked around for some proof on his system.  Again did you really buy over 10+ premium subscriptions just to collect reversals, and then not share any of that valuable data?

The reversals are in the summary reports, you don't need the premium subscription for those. The reversals have been available before the premium version came out. Therefore, we can go back in time further.

I was under the impression that the initial investor version of socrates had no reversals.  I also was under the impression that the summary reports were just high level information of market behavior with detailed reports having select reversals included, and premium analysis had all the reversals for the select market.  Like I said, I haven't subscribed to socrates so forgive me if I'm wrong

[AnonymousCoder]

I was under the impression that the initial investor version of socrates had no reversals. I also was under the impression that the summary reports were just high level information of market behavior with detailed reports having select reversals included, and premium analysis had all the reversals for the select market. Like I said, I haven't subscribed to socrates so forgive me if I'm wrong

The name of the lowest version of the report containing reversals has changed from "SOCRATES SUMMARY ANALYSIS" to "SOCRATES Detailed Analysis" after the introduction of the premium version. You are right, there weren't reversals in the initial investor version but later on some time in between.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[rosousa]

...

I appreciate what you are doing! I understand this undertaking is a big ordeal that will take a lot of time. My only ask i's that you make it publicly available so that we can analyze your findings for ourselves.  I mean what's the point of posting findings if we can't go through the data and come to the same conclusions.

I make my claims based on logic such as saying that the Socrates system does not tell the user what to trade, for how long to trade it, with what stop loss and so on. So even if we had all the data, we would still not be able to test it because there are no objective test criteria.

If nobody has historical data because the Socrates system does not provide it, then the Socrates system is flawed because it hides the historical data from us.

The burden of proof is on the Socrates system not on us.

If I do not provide the data now then that does not prove that the Socrates system is correct. If I provide the data then anybody could say my data is flawed because it cannot be corroborated because Socrates does not provide it. I could have just made it up. And as I said, it provides an attack surface where Armstrong proxies can come forward with their well known beat around the bush forecast array method where they will perhaps say that this and that weekly reversal should have been traded only for a day because there was a strong turning point on Monday.

Obviously socrates should provide historical data, but that isn't happening.  I just want to test what Martin says that the reversal system will produce the expected result within 3 time units, nothing to do with the forcast arrays.  Also, did you buy 10+ premium subscriptions for the purpose of collecting reversals? If I could buy this many subscriptions I would, but I don't have the funds.  But you have this great dataset that is going to waste because you are afraid of some criticisms from "Armstrong proxies".  It sounds like you are trying to take a scientific approach with your experiment.  Well this is how science works, you provide your results WITH underlying data so others can scutinize and design further experiments based on your results and data.  I'm trying to do this because I see a flaw in your methodology.  The methodology I am proposing fixes your flaw, and can bring further understanding to this whole reversal system

There´s no historical data to user to test maybe because Reversals as standalone investment approach, don´t work. Our research group have built-in Reversals calculation inputs in our software to back-test it. But if you just want to test Reversals election entry/exit system you could just use a simple Excel spreadsheet to test it too. Our back-testing suggest some evidence that results are better than using simple trendlines support/resistance/pivots breakout approach, but NOT good enough to be profitable as standalone system.

Additional, one of the main Reversals features is that they change dynamically if the market make new highs/lows in next time units, so without forward looking capacity from a future teller or something that enable to confirm on the present that in the future the Reversal level will remain valid, it have limited use to trading/investing, specially the Monthly reversals which up to 1 month after election the system can come-back and change the Reversal level or cancel the election or simple change from Bullish to Bearish reversal election (as it happen recently on Crude OIL market). If your broker don´t allow you to change a entry made 1 month ago, you better of not use Reversals as standalone investment approach).

During the last century had been develop awesome work on financial markets - Elliot Waves, Fibonacci, Gann, Larry Williams, John Murphy just to name a few awesome work on the area that we had been able to test together with the Reversals...
1) ALL of them have some validity/value
2) some of them used together are very profitable
3) No amazing indicator/Reversal system or whatever is good enough to be used profitable as standalone trading approach

I started to regular share on twitter some potential trading opportunities that use Reversals, Cycles alongside with other back-tested tools that work very well combined with the Reversals, be my guest to look into it
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

RS

[AnonymousCoder]

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Additional, one of the main Reversals features is that they change dynamically if the market make new highs/lows in next time units, so without forward looking capacity from a future teller or something that enable to confirm on the present that in the future the Reversal level will remain valid, it have limited use to trading/investing, specially the Monthly reversals which up to 1 month after election the system can come-back and change the Reversal level or cancel the election or simple change from Bullish to Bearish reversal election (as it happen recently on Crude OIL market). If your broker don't allow you to change a entry made 1 month ago, you better of not use Reversals as standalone investment approach).
...

Some of these contraptions are called superposition events, and they are a fraud. I wrote about them before.

It is real fun to read this being confirmed by multiple parties. It is trickery. There are so many ambiguous escape hatches in the reversal system, that will make it appear successful in hindsight after having borrowed information from the future. These tricks have been exposed here thoroughly, and this alone is sufficient to discredit the system. Based on the rules that Armstrong has published, the system cannot be used as a successful trading tool, and it is not possible to test the system based on these escape rules, obviously, because that would perhaps result in a 100% success rate.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[AnonymousCoder]

Let's try again to trade it, this time monthly reversals. Date elected: 2019-04-30, traded for one month until 2019-05-31

GDAX monthly bullish 5% loss
GDX monthly bearish 3.4% loss
SP 500 monthly bullish 6.6% loss
TLT monthly bearish 6.6% loss
/ZW Wheat futures monthly bearish 17.4% loss

This is garden variety stuff.

Now where has the AI computer with wheat prices back to 1259 been hiding?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/the-rise-in-agriculture-for-the-next-ecm/
Posted Jun 17, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
We have wheat prices back to 1259. Clearly, the projections it makes are all inclusive of weather and disease, for everything unfolds in a cycle.

Let me make this clear. We have had a 17% wheat price rise. The computer projection, a monthly bearish reversal, calls for a decline with a gap of -5% which is clearly the opposite. So what he is writing in his blog, is pure propaganda bullshit. The article is at least a month too late. That is NOT a successful projection.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[MA_talk]

So much good stuffs from

AnonymousCoder
rosousa
bikefront
trulycoined

THANKS!!!


I have read enough (almost 2 decades now) of Armstrong that I know for sure that he will never provide you some trading rules that can apply without exceptions.  Ambiguity for Armstrong is a must, or else he cannot be always "right".  There is ALWAYS a backdoor from which he can correct himself for the right scenario.

And I always read him with a longer-term view for trading.  But that did NOT work.  Timing is everything.

Whether Armstrong got some of the past calls correctly or not, like Nikkei, or traded at DB successfully, it really doesn't matter.  Statistically, there are MANY one-time wonders in the mutual fund industry.  What's most important is whether the success continued in a systematic way.

My best guess is that Armstrong possibly had a few good calls, and had some good trading period in the past.  He tried to build on top of it, but simply fake his way by ambiguity and Ponzi (as in the case of the SEC suit against him).

Most people will admit their failures, but Armstrong just won't.

As StrikeEagle/Armstrong claimed, he made money on every single trade.

Zero losing trade for a trader?  His arrogance is bigger than his common sense.

[olegrey]

Let's try again to trade it, this time monthly reversals. Date elected: 2019-04-30, traded for one month until 2019-05-31

GDAX monthly bullish 5% loss
GDX monthly bearish 3.4% loss
SP 500 monthly bullish 6.6% loss
TLT monthly bearish 6.6% loss
/ZW Wheat futures monthly bearish 17.4% loss

This is garden variety stuff.

Now where has the AI computer with wheat prices back to 1259 been hiding?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/the-rise-in-agriculture-for-the-next-ecm/
Posted Jun 17, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
We have wheat prices back to 1259. Clearly, the projections it makes are all inclusive of weather and disease, for everything unfolds in a cycle.

Let me make this clear. We have had a 17% wheat price rise. The computer projection, a monthly bearish reversal, calls for a decline with a gap of -5% which is clearly the opposite. So what he is writing in his blog, is pure propaganda bullshit. The article is at least a month too late. That is NOT a successful projection.

Perfect! These numbers and the weekly reversals last page will work great for a feasibility study.  The hypothesis being: If a time frame is set at three units from an elected reversal, then a market that failed to get an expected result in the first time unit will get an expected result at 3 time units.  An expect result being a higher price than a bullish reversal and a lower price for a bearish reversal

I assume the 1 percent rule and no superposition event don't apply to these reversals.  

As you can see we are not applying arrays or the GMW at all, so no worries abut that.  Let's see if we can get to the bottom of these reversals.  If you would like to add anymore elected reversals that didn't produce an expect result within the first time unit, feel free to add them!

[psp777]

You know, I've only lost money since following Armstrong...reports, subscription, trades....hmmmmmm speaks for itself.

[AnonymousCoder]

Martin Armstrong asleep at the Wheel

There is a lot happening in the world right now, and one would think that Martin Armstrong would feel right at home where political and economic events are unfolding that fit beautifully in his larger theme of the implosion of governments and generally looming federal debt crises in multiple countries.

He has this model given to him by history of the Roman Empire imploding, with the process starting at the periphery, eating its way to the core. At least that is the theory that he has been telling us, his big theory.

One would think, that with his timing tools and so called models at his disposal, he would be beavering away to keep his prediction schedule, the dominoes as he would need to see them falling, up to date time wise. I would expect that he is keenly building and maintaining a schedule of Europe, Turkey, the BRICS etc. collapsing in a cascade like fashion, slowly, slowly, then accelerating.

Instead, however, I have read how he was lamenting about the Emerging Markets being in free-fall, something that nobody else would see, at the time when they were still rallying very much in sync with the US stock market and global markets in general.

I was frustrated when I missed the recent decline of the Turkish stock market. Then I decided that I needed to break free from Socrates and do something. Whatever. Do some scanning. I had to learn the rather odd but powerful thinkscript programming language for that. Had to struggle with bugs in that language.

See https://stackoverflow.com/questions/56518594/how-to-create-a-variable-that-retains-its-value and https://stackoverflow.com/questions/55778141/how-to-address-a-thinkscript-idataholder-array-in-a-scan. Shocking to be honest. The guy at AmeritTrade does not understand the issues - he does not even understand what a test case is and always wants to remove the code that I write to demonstrate a defect in their system.

Nevertheless, I got the scanning good enough and started to search for subtle declines across 40,000 instruments. Found a bank in Brazil BSBR Banco Santander that fits the pattern. A match of that pattern does not mean anything as I wrote earlier. But if it is an emerging market bank, and if its price is at resistance of an otherwise declining channel, and if the timing is right, that is at least a signal that fits the bill in the greater theme.

I started reading articles about the Brazil economy, like the most recent one https://www.aei.org/publication/bolsonaros-brazil-public-debt-peril/

I have to admit that I am fairly clueless about trading. But if a dummy like me can do it, what about Martin Armstrong?

That kind of information in combination with pattern matches would help him to get his ducks in a row, at least while his Socrates system is way too stupid to get anywhere near this rather basic level of analysis.

But he is asleep at the wheel, missed this one again. Unless, of course, he reads this

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[AnonymousCoder]

...
The hypothesis being: If a time frame is set at three units from an elected reversal, then a market that failed to get an expected result in the first time unit will get an expected result at 3 time units. An expect result being a higher price than a bullish reversal and a lower price for a bearish reversal
...

I must admit that I have never seen it this way. What you write is in conflict with the basic trading rule to "cut your losses early". In case of /ZW, when we look at the chart we want to get out asap to avoid catastrophic losses. That is especially true for Armstrong reversals because of the following:

They get elected at tipping points which are resistance and support. The price tends to flip in the opposite direction rather violently in case of failure (falling back into the trend channel, racing to the opposite boundary of it).

So I do not see a great chance that a reversal trade will come right after a full one period failure. In other words, we have run out of time.

However, in the case where a reversal is right and we get some profit in the first period, then the probability to get more profit for up to another two periods is higher than to get any profit at all after a failing first period. That is my experience. Furthermore, in that second case, it is likely that we are already electing the next reversal in the same direction, so we don't need to worry at all.

Combined, this means that an evaluation method using only a single period is a practical compromise.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[s29]

Let's try again to trade it, this time monthly reversals. Date elected: 2019-04-30, traded for one month until 2019-05-31

GDAX monthly bullish 5% loss
GDX monthly bearish 3.4% loss
SP 500 monthly bullish 6.6% loss
TLT monthly bearish 6.6% loss
/ZW Wheat futures monthly bearish 17.4% loss

This is garden variety stuff.

Now where has the AI computer with wheat prices back to 1259 been hiding?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/the-rise-in-agriculture-for-the-next-ecm/
Posted Jun 17, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
We have wheat prices back to 1259. Clearly, the projections it makes are all inclusive of weather and disease, for everything unfolds in a cycle.

Let me make this clear. We have had a 17% wheat price rise. The computer projection, a monthly bearish reversal, calls for a decline with a gap of -5% which is clearly the opposite. So what he is writing in his blog, is pure propaganda bullshit. The article is at least a month too late. That is NOT a successful projection.

  those Armstrong reversals are a total joke. I've lost money on that stuff quite a few times.

Reversals usually happen when the market is already overbought or oversold. Maybe some additional upside or downside follows, but then you have a bottom or top soon and you have a massive rally the other way. These reversals only work in a clear uptrend of downtrend (in other words: they didn't work in 2018 and 2019).

Didn't the Dow elect a bearish reversal on the last trading day of December 2018? Well that didn't really work out did it Or the same with bullish reversals in March and April 2019. It's just such a baloney. It makes you miss the biggest moves in the opposite direction.

[AnonymousCoder]

Superposition Event in the Blog

Here we have a Revision Signal

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

in the private blog. As has been noted before, these signals borrow from the future.

In this case, a daily bearish is elected on Thursday 2018-10-11, a weekly bearish is elected on Friday 2018-10-12. Then on Monday that Revision Signal comes out of the blue because the system discovers that it has been wrong.

US Share Market Afternoon Update
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, October 11, 2018

The Dow is trading at 25360 after we got the mid-day rally. A close today below 25454 will keep the market weak. A closing BELOW 25294 today should signal a further decline and the next low may unfold on Monday. If we get this sell signal, then we should move to the next Weekly Bearish which lies at the 24965 level and if that is elected tomorrow, then we should test the Monthly Bearish in the 23 zone next week.

We are setting the stage for a real interesting outcome here right on time for the WEC


The DOW closed below 25294 at 25052.83, so we got the sell signal.

The Markets for the Week of 10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
...
We encountered a Superposition situation on the Weekly Level in the Dow electing two long-term term Weekly Bullish Reversals against a Short-term Weekly Bearish.



What this means that you go short on Thursday and Friday, make a loss, and the following Monday Martin comes out saying that the system was right again. These two long-term Weekly Bullish Reversals were NOT available on Friday. They come the next week.

If you look at the chart, even on its own terms it is not correct because the bullish movement is shorter term than the bearish movement.

Nobody would expect that a system is always right and accurate, but the claims are outlandish, and it helps to document what happened.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain