Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MA_talk]

We are supposed to discuss his private blogs .why do this website keep blabbering about those side topics that don't benefits anyone
??

Martin cannot be right all the time because he does not use the time factor    ..but he is right generally on the broad side .major reversal signal.  That should give traders an edge. Big trades are made only a few time a year. 

Since the latest post from ArmstrongEconomics.com is on Wolrd War 3 (Again), and he happened to put out a Cycle of War report which I got from my friend in 2013/2014, let us review his long-term forecast record:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/world-war-iii-2024-2027/

I'm taking just snippets from his report from 2013.  Most of the timeframe covered has already expired, and so there is no longer any viable value in whatever I put out here:

First and foremost, Armstrong said that the wavelength for the cycle of war is about 25 years.  This is available on his public blog, where he shows 25 years between WWI (1914), WWII (1939), Tonkin Guilt (1964), China Tienanmen event (1989).  From the last event, he added 25, and he got to 2014.

And then, giving himself quite some leeway, he said that the intensity of war/civil unrest will pick up from year 1 (2014) to year 6 (2019), peaking at the final two years.  That covers 6 years out of 25 years of the cycle length of war.  I could kind of understand his year 1 to year 6, since he kind of mimic the timeline from past WW, which is kind of over by then.  Below is the quote from his report:

As the economy declines in Europe, we will see this anti-foreigner atmosphere spread among Eurozone members against other members.  The year 2016 should be the start of a nasty economic decline.
....
We could see things get real bad during the 2016-2020 economic decline as capital flees public
sectors and we face serious local defaults on debts both in Europe and the United States.
The peak of the next 8.6 Year Wave on the ECM is lining up with the possible 26 year low in
the Euro where we could see also the high in gold.

The above boldface is mine.  So where is the NASTY economic decline, when we are in year 2019?

This year is supposedly the final year in the highest intensity for Armstrong's war cycle.  Just tell me how it feels from 2014 to 2019 in terms of civil unrest & war?

But amazingly, charlatan Martin Armstrong continues on his War Cycle in the latest post:

The War Cycle is turning up and we are looking at a possible peak "as early as" 2027. This is why I have been concerned about the economic crisis in 2021-2022. Once the economy turns down, it will be the fuel for the war.

We must also respect that this particular cycle is the combination of both civil and international unrest.

So let's analyze a little bit.
1. He said "as early as" 2027.  That means if in 2027 nothing happens, he is not wrong.  He doesn't say how late it will be, but we all know that war cycle length is 25 years, which is basically from 2014 to 2039 for a full cycle.  SUPPOSEDLY based on his War report, the most intense year is 2019, starting from 2014.  WOW, I mean, that is quite OFF, especially for a cycle length of just 25 years.  Why is he changing to 2027?  He thinks nobody remembers?

2. Then he repeats about "THE economic crisis".  But he SAID the economic decline was from 2016.  Now it's 2019, and stocks are near all-time high.  Euro didn't collapse.  But he again push the time-frame further into future to 2021-2022.  Did you know that if you repeat the same thing over and over again, you will eventually get it right?  But TIMING is the key to profitable trades.

3. At last, he tries to cover more ground by mentioning that it's both civil and international unrest.

The War Cycle report was 72 pages long, with 0.5 page of incorrect "forecast", and 71.5 pages of past history.  That low percentage is always true for all of Armstrong's pricey "historical" reports.


In any case, apparently, Armstrong does NOT understand what it means by CYCLE.  A cycle has a HIGH and a LOW.  Once the cycle completes, if it started at the HIGH, it goes back to HIGH.  That's a completed CYCLE.  Since his war cycle is 25 years, and he pins it at 1914/1939/1964/1989/2014, by the time that you are HALF-WAY through the cycle, the war intensity should be at the LOW side.  Assuming the the LOW happens exactly at mid-way, that will be 2026.5.

But charlatan Armstrong is saying that 2027 as the peak, when in his War Cycle Report, he clearly stated that it's from 2014 to 2019, peaking at the 6th year.

HOW CAN the war cycle low becomes the HIGH intensity?

Oh, that is just another cycle inversion that he forgot to mention, I tell you.  Anytime that Armstrong is WRONG, he always has a term for it.  Don't worry.  That is his "great" forecasting record.

[psp777]

Well, GOLD is making new highs today above the monthly reversal number. The most recent blog post hinted at another pullback, but did say it could go up (both sides covered) Remember the mid 1360s is a monthly close number so you can sit on your hands and miss a breakout or jump in with a stop under the reversal.

My TA shows negative divergence with the RSI and MACD ...so is this a fall move? Bull trap?

However, there is a nice inverse correlation between Gold and USDJPY. JPY is breaking down so this may indicate that gold has lots of room to move up.

[bleachberu]

Would be interesting to see what gold does at 1362.
MA has been yelling for a long time that that is an important monthly bullish.

Gold is now trading at ~1354

Gold broke the magic $1,362....now $1,383...Asian hours.

[psp777]

Would be interesting to see what gold does at 1362.
MA has been yelling for a long time that that is an important monthly bullish.

Gold is now trading at ~1354

Gold broke the magic $1,362....now $1,383...Asian hours.

Yes so the weekly number is 1365 and the monthly is 1362.50. Armstrong said he was preparing the Gold report ...may have missed this one unless we give a sell off this week based on the divergence in a few indicators.

[psp777]

Boom

[AnonymousCoder]

...
But he again pushed the time-frame further into future to 2021-2022. Did you know that if you repeat the same thing over and over again, you will eventually get it right? But TIMING is the key to profitable trades.

Thanks.

And here is how to profit: Crude oil price predictions based on his war model:

Crude Oil & The Future




Crude Oil & The Future
Posted Jul 9, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
Nevertheless, oil peaked intraday in 2009 but the highest yearly close came in 2011. It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models.

Crude oil was at around USD 100 in 2014 when he wrote this and it declined to USD 30 from there.

Armstrong is a Crackpot

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[psp777]

Okay case closed on Armstrong LOL.

I cancelled services last week actually. More confusing than anything...not helpful with trading unfortunately. It was like being married to a bad trade. Hoping and wanting Socrates to work, but I didn't.  Nothing should be that difficult to understand with "what ifs" and "inversions" and whatever...Anyways thanks to this board I can now save $200+ USD a month to invest in other methods. There are more trader mined cyclical analysts and highly effective services out there. Some will argue to not trade other's systems...well, what was everyone goal with Socrates?



 

[bleachberu]

My goal was for socrates to give me an edge in trading and looking at markets. Over time, I naively got sucked into the hype and expected the system to be God's gift to trading. As I shared in my earlier post, as I took notes, I noticed that the levels given were not that useful for trading and the whole system was ambigious at best. Even the manual they gave us during the WEC was also not very clear on how to use the system because ultimately, it was not transperant nor instructive.

The other interest I had was on his megatrends which I wanted to prepare for. Again, as I mentioned, some of his macro calls are playing out (see my earlier post) but I continue to question his other megatrends forecast after finding this thread.

Btw, on his socrates main page this am, it shows dollar index bullish but 10Y bearish (both monthly)...interesting. I guess the 10Y call kinda played out but 10s were already moving down since May...

[psp777]

My goal was for socrates to give me an edge in trading and looking at markets. Over time, I naively got sucked into the hype and expected the system to be God's gift to trading. As I shared in my earlier post, as I took notes, I noticed that the levels given were not that useful for trading and the whole system was ambigious at best. Even the manual they gave us during the WEC was also not very clear on how to use the system because ultimately, it was not transperant nor instructive.

The other interest I had was on his megatrends which I wanted to prepare for. Again, as I mentioned, some of his macro calls are playing out (see my earlier post) but I continue to question his other megatrends forecast after finding this thread.

Btw, on his socrates main page this am, it shows dollar index bullish but 10Y bearish (both monthly)...interesting. I guess the 10Y call kinda played out but 10s were already moving down since May...

Yes, I understand. Me as well, my goal was to "follow the numbers" with Socrates and to remove emotion from trading. However, when signals are not clear ... or out right wrong...how can you not be emotional?

Well, I'm onto trying another couple of services... one is very expensive but they have made unbelievable calls in the last 2 weeks ...they are more day traders or 1-3 day holders of futures and have been know to execute trades overnight (I have followed with ETFs and have done well) and another less expensive service - more of a swing trade style  - based on cycle analysis which is calling for a temp low in the SPX on July 5...we will see I don't want to post them here as it seems like an ad or me promoting something that I am not associated with (as I'm not), but people can message me.

[DanB1]

It was like being married to a bad trade. Hoping and wanting Socrates to work, but I didn't.  Nothing should be that difficult to understand with "what ifs" and "inversions" and whatever...
 

I had the same, I was so convinced that Socrates had it right, I kept the trade on in hope of making a profit. But with every trade that goes against you (especially shorts), at some time you have to take your loss.
Man, I feel so stupid believing it all.

[AnonymousCoder]

How to help reduce the damage of armstrongeconomics.com and ask-socrates.com ?

I think this blog is a great resource to discuss Martin Armstrong's methods and record the failures.

However I also think that because of the sequential and unstructured nature of this blog, the impact is perhaps negligible. I mean he has his massive web site, numerous interviews on youtube. If you search for him on google, the results are saturated by his own material.

I feel obligated to spread the truth about him as much as possible because it all looks like a fraud to me now.

How can we get out the word about him faster? I am sure that there are some experts out there who would be keen to shut him down. Perhaps someone can update wikipedia at least?


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Gumbi]

How to help reduce the damage of armstrongeconomics.com and ask-socrates.com ?

I think this blog is a great resource to discuss  Martin Armstrong's methods and record the failures.

However I also think that because of the sequential and unstructured nature of this blog, the impact is perhaps negligible. I mean he has his massive web site, numerous interviews on youtube. If you search for him on google, the results are saturated by his own material.

I feel obligated to spread the truth about him as much as possible because it all looks like a fraud to me now.

How can we get out the word about him faster? I am sure that there are some experts out there who would  be keen to shut him down. Perhaps someone can update wikipedia at least?

This model has helped me tremendously with my trading and the calls have been exceptional done the years, it certainty is not easy and just because you failed you want to destroy it for everyone else. "keen to shut it down" you really are a disgraceful person and probably should be working for the government. It is you who has zero capacity to trade and zero understanding of technical and cyclical analysis and you think your opinion means anything? Understanding this model and the reversal system takes years of work and dedication. You are so quick
to conclude that Armstrong is a fraud but you have never really looked deeply into any of it. Socrates was fully unlocked only in early 2019 and It sounds like you have not even tried the pro subscription. How can anyone take you seriously if you are evaluating this model only with a basic subscription you really are a joke.

I saw your incredibly uninformed comment on wheat futures if you had the trader service you would know that MAY was a turning point and there was a MAJOR monthly bearish reversal just below which was not elected the only charlatan here is you.

[trc4949]

SPX breaking new highs today.  Wait a second, Marty said no new highs until after January 2020.  He been saying that for months now. Oops.

[Gumbi]

SPX breaking new highs today.  Wait a second, Marty said no new highs until after January 2020.  He been saying that for months now. Oops.

again another misconception and bogus statement. Armstrong has said and I quote that "we do not expect to see new highs on any SUSTAINABLE BASIS until the ECM bottoms come January.

[Gumbi]

How to help reduce the damage of armstrongeconomics.com and ask-socrates.com ?

I think this blog is a great resource to discuss  Martin Armstrong's methods and record the failures.

However I also think that because of the sequential and unstructured nature of this blog, the impact is perhaps negligible. I mean he has his massive web site, numerous interviews on youtube. If you search for him on google, the results are saturated by his own material.

I feel obligated to spread the truth about him as much as possible because it all looks like a fraud to me now.

How can we get out the word about him faster? I am sure that there are some experts out there who would  be keen to shut him down. Perhaps someone can update wikipedia at least?

He has a youtube page made earlier this year. I also think perhaps this blog does more than one might expect- it is pretty much the only place his stuff is actively discussed (except perhaps reddit.com/r/aec and even there this blog is mentioned). That is the reason Armstrong made an account as StrikeEagle and likely other multis- it is having an effect. Wikipedia does show him as a scammer too, so there's that.

Gumbi, you're picking a particular call he made- if you could answer for the losing calls Armstrong made that others fell victim to when Armstrong did not take responsibility (he never does) then that would be helpful in understanding where you're coming from in terms of methodology. You also said "calls have been exceptional done the years" and pro was not available over the years- this means that a pro level is not required to measure something exceptional by Armstrong in terms of his calls. If it does that well, then please go ahead and post trades live. I, as well as Anon, MA, and others have followed Armstrong for years and have concluded that it does not work. As for me, the only possibility for his model to work is in the Reversal system but only because I have not completed the analysis on it yet. Keep in mind as well that everything else has been shown not to work and Armstrong pulls numbers and excuses out of thin air that were not known to his followers until after they already made a trade and losses in place-but he won't take responsibility for those.

I'm talking about 99% of all the calls he has made, well the blog has been out since 2016  so that is what I am referring to. I am not referring to his opinion or anything like that I am speaking of elected reversals on his blog. If you simply go through his blog starting from 2016
and focus on the reversals you will come to the same conclusion. nobody on this forum seems to have gone through all of them and yet that want to call Armstrong a fraud. They simply lack the intelligence so rather than admitting they are the ones that failed they point to the model instead.

Bikefront most people on here are absolutely clueless just like in everything else the same is the situation the majority have not got a clue what is even happening in the world such as the majority believe in global warming, the majority believe Trump is bad etc. Truth always exists on the fringe so it should be a good sign that the majority speak out against him that is a indication that there is something there and only a few intelligent people will be able to see it but it takes an open mind.   

I can post live trades but I have not mastered this model yet so I can and have been wrong in the past but from my own understanding it has been my mistake not the model's. we elected 4 daily bullish on the Dow yesterday so we see a bounce today.

I'm not even sure this model will be here for much longer behind the scenes they are trying to destroy everything Armstrong has worked for.

[DanB1]

@Gumbi,

I respect the fact that people as yourself come to this blog and say it does work. I don't agree with the "lack the intelligence" part but those are your words.
So it would indeed be great if you could show us a few trades live and show that there are people who do know how to do it.
And no worries if not 100% of the trades work but I would be very interested to see you trade!

Hope you can do this for us, and maybe show us all that we are wrong!

Thanks!

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Understanding this model and the reversal system takes years of work and dedication. You are so quick
to conclude that Armstrong is a fraud but you have never really looked deeply into any of it. Socrates was fully unlocked only in early 2019 and It sounds like you have not even tried the pro subscription. How can anyone take you seriously if you are evaluating this model only with a basic subscription you really are a joke.

I saw your incredibly uninformed comment on wheat futures if you had the trader service you would know that MAY was a turning point and there was a MAJOR monthly bearish reversal just below which was not elected the only charlatan here is you.

1) I have used the pro subscription
2) If a monthly bearish is NOT elected while a weekly bearish IS elected, since when does this INVALIDATE the weekly bearish election to the extent that you need to trade against it?

This is the after the fact ambiguity everybody will recognize. You are clearly cherry-picking here, and this type of logic is alien to an objective observer.

You would lose profit opportunities not trading dozens of good weekly reversals if you start trading this way - essentially you would be biting your nails not trading at all.

3) If this was a computer system as claimed, and what you are claiming was a business rule in the system, then the computer system would consider it and emit the correct signal according to this rule.

No, I am not buying this cheap type of argument, and not many people here will buy it, either.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Gumbi]

...
Understanding this model and the reversal system takes years of work and dedication. You are so quick
to conclude that Armstrong is a fraud but you have never really looked deeply into any of it. Socrates was fully unlocked only in early 2019 and It sounds like you have not even tried the pro subscription. How can anyone take you seriously if you are evaluating this model only with a basic subscription you really are a joke.

I saw your incredibly uninformed comment on wheat futures if you had the trader service you would know that MAY was a turning point and there was a MAJOR monthly bearish reversal just below which was not elected the only charlatan here is you.

1) I have used the pro subscription
2) If a monthly bearish is NOT elected while a weekly bearish IS elected, since when does this INVALIDATE the weekly bearish election?

This is the after the fact ambiguity everybody will recognize. You are clearly cherry-picking here, and this type of logic is alien to an objective observer.

You would lose profit opportunities not trading dozens of weekly bullish reversals if you start trading this way - essentially you would be biting your nails not trading at all.

3) If this was a computer system as claimed, and what you are claiming was a business rule in the system, then the computer system would consider it and emit the correct signal according to this rule.

No, I am not buying this cheap type of argument, and not many people here will buy it, either.

On Wheat futures The week of May 06 2019 we elected a weekly bearish reversal at 426. we have another weekly bearish at 424.10, 422.3 and 419.10 which was providing support, the market tested but did not elect them, so clearly you did not use the Pro service here since you are only talking about 1 weekly bearish.
There is pure black and white there is zero ambiguity here so the mistake is clearly on your side not the reversal system.
So can you please stop taking absolute rubbish when you are clearly in the wrong and by all means u can try again with some other trade you failed on.

[AnonymousCoder]

...
On Wheat futures The week of May 06 2019 we elected a weekly bearish reversal at 426. we have another weekly bearish at 424.10, 422.3 and 419.10 which was providing support, the market tested but did not elect them, so clearly you did not use the Pro service here since you are only talking about 1 weekly bearish.
There is pure black and white there is zero ambiguity here so the mistake is clearly on your side not the reversal system.

After the fact. In other scenarios with support as you say, with weekly reversals elected but other weekly reversals below as support, you would not have traded them, the market would have rushed through support and you would have missed the opportunity. There are no black and white rules as you say, and that is the problem.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[DanB1]

But Gumbi...
Do you take the challenge and post some trades here?
Or are you just telling us that we are so stupid for not understanding all this?