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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615387 times)
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March 20, 2019, 02:49:29 PM
 #5001

His main thesis is, the markets will not get into a protracted decline. Therefore, keep dong what's been working- BTD (Buy The Dip)

Buy the dip is already in the price, its the default meta.     Thats the hazard that the market is complacent and asleep to risks occurring just like 2008 was resulting from that bred attitude with government subsidy on housing debt.   Now the majority of housing debt is government backed so its far worse
 
Quote
Euro Crash ?
Euro crash would result similarly, fake markets organised to meet politics not capitalism.    EU has been organising fake pricing in farming commodities for decades and obviously its proud of that.   Now its also done that with bonds, the pricing is written in not part of a market process.    Its easy to see that the tide will not follow (because global commerce is larger then EU) what humans desire, if we get any natural effect in markets it will be to correct this bad debt.   Ultimately the worth of money will fail, the Swiss abandoned an attempt to link to the EURO because its so far from a stable value relative to reality but vs dollar and its own qe and deficits it can continue.

  Euro collapse ties into a higher dollar and my current guess is Dollar index does not make a new high to exceed the post election high, we should be seeing a negative trend over a decade I think and the rise to alternatives; some speculate this helps crypto gold etc.   It might also just mean commodities cost more

Its part of why I expect Brexit is the correct way for UK or any country to separate and put a firewall into contagion risk on going in markets.   Short term it appears to be negative but insurance is always a cost till its required then its essential

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March 21, 2019, 02:37:58 AM
 #5002

I don't have the subscription so I don't know what the blog says

Me neither now that he no longer offers a free trial lol. How you been though? Its been a while since you stopped visiting Reddit wall street. How's the trading going?
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March 21, 2019, 02:44:47 AM
 #5003

I don't have the subscription so I don't know what the blog says

Me neither now that he no longer offers a free trial lol. How you been though? Its been a while since you stopped visiting Reddit wall street. How's the trading going?

Pretty good, how about yourself? Trading's been going fairly well. I do lose once in a while but its all good. Ironically, my best technique has been due to Armstrong's alignment theory. I took it and use it. It really is something special.
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March 21, 2019, 04:05:07 AM
 #5004

Sorry then .does anyone can help to post his private blog on us market ?
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March 22, 2019, 01:37:41 AM
 #5005

Well, hopefully someone generous on this forum will post the Private Blogs. They DID have some specific numbers and analysis of the arrays which, when I had access, were helpful in conjunction with my OWN system (Bike would agree).

Funny how he's giving Socrates credit for the Biogen drop - but he did clarify that the GMW is to be used with reversals and arrays and whatever else you're doing to give you more conviction with your trade. Maybe we expect too much from Socrates - there will NEVER be a perfectly working computer that says "buy here sell here". If his system is a good TOOL then he should market it as such. It surely isn't the end all be all and from what I've heard/seen it isn't some magical perfect system...which brings into question his claim that he went to jail because "the government wanted the source code".

He may seem like a sleazy salesman from NJ, but he apparently has influence around the world, not everywhere but in some places, and I do believe he is extremely gifted in economics, history, and law. Just not 100% buying that Socrates is predicting the world and it's worth $150/mo for vague analysis and shifting goalposts.

Anyway, since we don't have the private blogs, I'm curious what you guys think is going on in the market. I was doing chart studies today and see a double bottom basically everywhere about the end of Oct and the beginning of Jan. Now we're reaching serious breakout levels. I'm wondering if hard BREXIT will actually happen and the melt-up is the foreign money buying shares. Today, Apple went up nearly 4%. SOXL is about to retest ATHs. Foreigners buying US stocks, I'd assume, would go after the big names and the big tech companies first.

Should we be buying tech/semis and ride this wave? Is this what the Private Blog was about? Maybe foreigners are pouring into the US in anticipation of the May elections and the bleak outlook for the EU? Or, conversely, are we being faked out by the surge we've seen lately?

Look forward to your insights and please keep this board alive. For the love of God can someone PLEASE give us the Private posts?
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March 22, 2019, 02:06:01 AM
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 #5006

Ok, so the private blog post from March 19 is not very useful IMO.

I can summarize main points:
1. Nothing suggests a major crash
2. Does not look like we are ready for new highs
3. Going into recession until early 2020
4. May and July are two targets. The plausible scenario is DOW low in May and high in July. No specific numbers but we may not even elect a weekly bearish to make that low.
5. Preparing for a slingshot move. Bear trap first - majority needs to be wrong - and then quick upside move.

No arrays or numbers in this post at all.

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March 22, 2019, 02:26:28 AM
 #5007

My interpretation (based on March 19 & 13 posts) as of now:

DOW is in the consolidation period but it needs to go down to create a bear trap for a slingshot move.
May - low, July - high, early 2020 - possible bear trap, then - up

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March 22, 2019, 03:24:40 AM
 #5008

I don't have the subscription so I don't know what the blog says

Me neither now that he no longer offers a free trial lol. How you been though? Its been a while since you stopped visiting Reddit wall street. How's the trading going?

Pretty good, how about yourself? Trading's been going fairly well. I do lose once in a while but its all good. Ironically, my best technique has been due to Armstrong's alignment theory. I took it and use it. It really is something special.

Same, I found a pretty good technique that works for me and I'm sticking to it. My goal is to make around 8-10% overall return per month and I have been succeeding. With compounding I should be a millionaire in 3 years haha. All jokes aside I think I do much better on my own and other people's opinion just cloud my judgement and I'm better off without it.
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March 22, 2019, 06:22:50 AM
 #5009


Thanks. Martin is good at calling major high and lows .
His energy model and economic model can forecast events that lead to major change in the market
Direction and that is his value.
His forecast on Europe is spot on and I suspect euro will collapse first.
His reversal are quite good. Thank s for the summary below.
He does not use time model by gann. But I can see that a high in 2019 will produce a correction year in
2020 .2021 is a low and then I suspect 2022 is the slingshot move for dow Jones .2023 is the peak cycle for stock.
That is according to time factor model by gann.
My sentiments dow will reach near 36000 level  by 2023 .but 2020 is a bear year. It should have a sizable correction of 25 percent.
Post any reversal here as they are important.



My interpretation (based on March 19 & 13 posts) as of now:

DOW is in the consolidation period but it needs to go down to create a bear trap for a slingshot move.
May - low, July - high, early 2020 - possible bear trap, then - up


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March 22, 2019, 06:32:39 AM
 #5010


There is a danger of shorting the peak around 2023 period. The market might not be there when it collapse .
Just take note. There is a danger of market freeze during that period and all money cannot be withdrawn from ..
Don't be so happy to short the greatest peak in the history without knowing this risk .




Thanks. Martin is good at calling major high and lows .
His energy model and economic model can forecast events that lead to major change in the market
Direction and that is his value.
His forecast on Europe is spot on and I suspect euro will collapse first.
His reversal are quite good. Thank s for the summary below.
He does not use time model by gann. But I can see that a high in 2019 will produce a correction year in
2020 .2021 is a low and then I suspect 2022 is the slingshot move for dow Jones .2023 is the peak cycle for stock.
That is according to time factor model by gann.
My sentiments dow will reach near 36000 level  by 2023 .but 2020 is a bear year. It should have a sizable correction of 25 percent.
Post any reversal here as they are important.



My interpretation (based on March 19 & 13 posts) as of now:

DOW is in the consolidation period but it needs to go down to create a bear trap for a slingshot move.
May - low, July - high, early 2020 - possible bear trap, then - up


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March 22, 2019, 03:51:52 PM
 #5011


Thanks. Martin is good at calling major high and lows .
His energy model and economic model can forecast events that lead to major change in the market
Direction and that is his value.
..... cut short ....
My interpretation (based on March 19 & 13 posts) as of now:

DOW is in the consolidation period but it needs to go down to create a bear trap for a slingshot move.
May - low, July - high, early 2020 - possible bear trap, then - up



Look at how Armstrong is shifting the goalpost from Feb panic month to March, then May, then July.

I "used to" agree that Martin is good at calling major high and lows.  But upon much closer examination, if you keep track of his daily/weekly/monthly calls, you will find that he actually achieve this calling POST-event.  His comments keeps shifting based on the market.  The market is always right obviously.  As long as his comments track CLOSE ENOUGH to how market shifts, given readers' short-term memory & confirmation bias, he can seemingly achieve that he "actually" called the peak & turns in the markets, when he in fact NEVER called it out AHEAD of time.

The golden proof to refute my argument above would have been that majority (much more than 50% obviously, or else you just flip a coin) if the subscribers profiting from his call on the market turning, by placing trades AHEAD of the time.

You know, a survey was done here, and that didn't show such.  In fact, given my own personal long records trading with Armstrong's calls, I simply know that Armstrong does NOT call the markets AHEAD of the time.

MOST of the time, what happens is that when his calls go wrong, and he does NOT admit it, but instead whis-wash through it, or blurs through it, or blog on something else for awhile to get your attention away, or he puts out all the reversal levels, and claims that markets showed strength or weakness, and so his model/computer is right, etc.

Well, F*&%, but my trade has already lost 15%+ after Armstrong made the wrong call (and of course, ALL of his calls are ambiguous, and so you cannot blame and pin him down either.)  Now that he is moving on to the "next phase" of market calls, but I'm STUCK with my trading loss.


Just tell me, if majority of the subscribers are making good money based on his calls, and I will agree that he is a great forecaster.

Think about it.  If Armstrong is doing a great job for his subscribers, why would this thread be 250+ pages long?Huh
If Armstrong is doing a great job calling the markets for his subscribers, the ONLY comments that I should see on this thread is that

"Stupid, just pay the subscription money, and you will make 100X over the money that you paid into Socrates/Armstrong."

Instead, this thread is constantly about what exactly Armstrong said in his blog or private blog, because NO ONE understands with clarity what he is forecasting.

Yet, of course, everyone seemed to be bewildered and enamored by Armstrong's extensive knowledge, etc.  Again, I AGREE that Armstrong is an excellent economist and programmer.  But that does NOT equate automatically to accurate forecast.

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March 23, 2019, 03:27:15 AM
 #5012

[Armstrong does not believe in time factor. His timing is off sometimes. Even some of the best market trader I know is not able to forecast the market correct ly at time . the reason is because there is much manipulation cause by Central banker . But the larger trend is always important to watch .to trade the market required more than Martin report.tgat is why those who can earn money by selling report always prefer to sell than doing the trade themselves  there is always the risk of losing .
Since the government have step in ,the market is no longer a free market .when have you heard of Central banker buying up toxi bonds ...then toxi shares and then buying up blue Chip to support the market 20 years ago ??


quote author=MA_talk link=topic=1082909.msg50270713#msg50270713 date=1553269912]

Thanks. Martin is good at calling major high and lows .
His energy model and economic model can forecast events that lead to major change in the market
Direction and that is his value.
..... cut short ....
My interpretation (based on March 19 & 13 posts) as of now:

DOW is in the consolidation period but it needs to go down to create a bear trap for a slingshot move.
May - low, July - high, early 2020 - possible bear trap, then - up



Look at how Armstrong is shifting the goalpost from Feb panic month to March, then May, then July.

I "used to" agree that Martin is good at calling major high and lows.  But upon much closer examination, if you keep track of his daily/weekly/monthly calls, you will find that he actually achieve this calling POST-event.  His comments keeps shifting based on the market.  The market is always right obviously.  As long as his comments track CLOSE ENOUGH to how market shifts, given readers' short-term memory & confirmation bias, he can seemingly achieve that he "actually" called the peak & turns in the markets, when he in fact NEVER called it out AHEAD of time.

The golden proof to refute my argument above would have been that majority (much more than 50% obviously, or else you just flip a coin) if the subscribers profiting from his call on the market turning, by placing trades AHEAD of the time.

You know, a survey was done here, and that didn't show such.  In fact, given my own personal long records trading with Armstrong's calls, I simply know that Armstrong does NOT call the markets AHEAD of the time.

MOST of the time, what happens is that when his calls go wrong, and he does NOT admit it, but instead whis-wash through it, or blurs through it, or blog on something else for awhile to get your attention away, or he puts out all the reversal levels, and claims that markets showed strength or weakness, and so his model/computer is right, etc.

Well, F*&%, but my trade has already lost 15%+ after Armstrong made the wrong call (and of course, ALL of his calls are ambiguous, and so you cannot blame and pin him down either.)  Now that he is moving on to the "next phase" of market calls, but I'm STUCK with my trading loss.


Just tell me, if majority of the subscribers are making good money based on his calls, and I will agree that he is a great forecaster.

Think about it.  If Armstrong is doing a great job for his subscribers, why would this thread be 250+ pages long?Huh
If Armstrong is doing a great job calling the markets for his subscribers, the ONLY comments that I should see on this thread is that

"Stupid, just pay the subscription money, and you will make 100X over the money that you paid into Socrates/Armstrong."

Instead, this thread is constantly about what exactly Armstrong said in his blog or private blog, because NO ONE understands with clarity what he is forecasting.

Yet, of course, everyone seemed to be bewildered and enamored by Armstrong's extensive knowledge, etc.  Again, I AGREE that Armstrong is an excellent economist and programmer.  But that does NOT equate automatically to accurate forecast.


[/quote]
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March 23, 2019, 11:09:27 AM
 #5013

Marty seems to be making contradictory comments ( in his blog posts )

He is now saying that we are going to have a very hard landing going into 2020.   But then also says the USA market is basically going to just meander sideways ?  He says it does not APPEAR to the be the case that the USA will crash down 40 to 50% correction.

How can we have a very hard recessionary landing into 2020 without a major stock correction ?
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March 23, 2019, 09:27:18 PM
 #5014

If someone could make a spreadsheet dating back from a couple of years ago to present with Armstrong's numbers (NOT the timing model!) that a move to X will imply a move to Y, and see how correct it is, that would shed some light. It is possible to be objective with the numbers. I never did that myself, however, and don't have an account anymore to test. With that said, his NUMBERS seemed to be accurate- I remember during the October crash he posted a lot of intraday calls and most of them were, believe it or not, very close to what ended up happening. Not only intraday either- his Reversal system showed that the market was still in a downtrend and the week's closings implied still a lot of downside left. None of those things used timing models, although the closes were still technically forecasting tools. I use a more rudimentary analysis but it ends up working just fine, so if some system that uses the same principle is out there, I can believe it to work with positive forecasting EV. Again, it isn't 100%, but if we take out the timing, it may well be legitimately good.
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March 24, 2019, 06:25:20 AM
 #5015


Hard landing is true .but the us market is holding up the rest of the world .he does give you a good idea that as long as dow holds the 21600 support level. Then a crash is still avoidable .but if this level is broken then expect the 17000 to be retested . In order for this to happen the market have to shift to fear factor of large scale .


Marty seems to be making contradictory comments ( in his blog posts )

He is now saying that we are going to have a very hard landing going into 2020.   But then also says the USA market is basically going to just meander sideways ?  He says it does not APPEAR to the be the case that the USA will crash down 40 to 50% correction.

How can we have a very hard recessionary landing into 2020 without a major stock correction ?
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March 24, 2019, 10:18:30 PM
 #5016

Hey guys I figured out what the trade of the century is... see this chart...  we will swing down in sp500 to 1880 and then zoom back up to all time highs.

If we get to 1880 or the bottom of wedge pattern NO ONE will want to buy that low, but that will be the buy.

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March 25, 2019, 11:10:01 AM
 #5017

For spx to reach that level the dow Jones would be around 16500. To break the level the 21000 line must be broken on a monthly .


Hey guys I figured out what the trade of the century is... see this chart...  we will swing down in sp500 to 1880 and then zoom back up to all time highs.

If we get to 1880 or the bottom of wedge pattern NO ONE will want to buy that low, but that will be the buy.

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7885/47459583321_8c9d082b49_k.jpg
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March 25, 2019, 04:44:43 PM
 #5018

Well, hopefully someone generous on this forum will post the Private Blogs. They DID have some specific numbers and analysis of the arrays which, when I had access, were helpful in conjunction with my OWN system (Bike would agree).

Funny how he's giving Socrates credit for the Biogen drop - but he did clarify that the GMW is to be used with reversals and arrays and whatever else you're doing to give you more conviction with your trade. Maybe we expect too much from Socrates - there will NEVER be a perfectly working computer that says "buy here sell here". If his system is a good TOOL then he should market it as such. It surely isn't the end all be all and from what I've heard/seen it isn't some magical perfect system...which brings into question his claim that he went to jail because "the government wanted the source code".

He may seem like a sleazy salesman from NJ, but he apparently has influence around the world, not everywhere but in some places, and I do believe he is extremely gifted in economics, history, and law. Just not 100% buying that Socrates is predicting the world and it's worth $150/mo for vague analysis and shifting goalposts.

Anyway, since we don't have the private blogs, I'm curious what you guys think is going on in the market. I was doing chart studies today and see a double bottom basically everywhere about the end of Oct and the beginning of Jan. Now we're reaching serious breakout levels. I'm wondering if hard BREXIT will actually happen and the melt-up is the foreign money buying shares. Today, Apple went up nearly 4%. SOXL is about to retest ATHs. Foreigners buying US stocks, I'd assume, would go after the big names and the big tech companies first.

Should we be buying tech/semis and ride this wave? Is this what the Private Blog was about? Maybe foreigners are pouring into the US in anticipation of the May elections and the bleak outlook for the EU? Or, conversely, are we being faked out by the surge we've seen lately?

Look forward to your insights and please keep this board alive. For the love of God can someone PLEASE give us the Private posts?


I just saw Armstrong's post on biogen today.  Look closely at the reader's words :
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/how-can-socrates-forecast-the-biogen-crash-today/

"high close sharp drop coming"

First of all, I'm almost certain that it's not straight from GMW.  I have NEVER seen such coined words ("sharp drop coming") from GMW.  Then, WHY didn't the reader use the "coined" words from GMW, such as "temp high", etc.  I have read many many forecasts from GMW, and the forecasts will continue to change until the given time period is closed.  So before the market has a daily/weekly/monthly close, the "forecast" for that given period from GMW is essentially useless, because it requires a closing price.

Now, if you look at how this reader is so adept in combining different tools from Armstrong, he is either Armstrong himself, or someone who really knows how to use Armstrong's tools.

Nevertheless, IF the combination of Armstrong's tools can generate profitable forecasts, AND Armstrong is NOT combining them to generate buy/sell signals, then that still only means one thing: it does NOT work consistently to generate profits over time.

Imagine with his software programming skills, he should have already combined all these different tools and generate all the flash sell/buy signals, and simply sell that constant stream of information to any hedge funds for huge profits.

But he is NOT doing that.

With his "reputation" and his programming skills, Armstrong should have been a billionaire many times over long time ago (via leveraged bets), and Forbes would have listed him as one of the richest person.

Oh, I can tell you why Armstrong is not doing that.  Because he is doing a "public service", and he is very "charitable", and he doesn't want to take lots of money from subscribers, but ather making them huge profits.  Is that correct that all of you are earning lots of profits from your trades, without resorting to your own personal "better" systems?

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March 25, 2019, 08:43:35 PM
 #5019

Marty seems to be making contradictory comments ( in his blog posts )

He is now saying that we are going to have a very hard landing going into 2020.   But then also says the USA market is basically going to just meander sideways ?  He says it does not APPEAR to the be the case that the USA will crash down 40 to 50% correction.

How can we have a very hard recessionary landing into 2020 without a major stock correction ?

The hard recessionary landing is supposed to pummel sovereign bonds.
Remember, 2008 was the crash in confidence in private institutions. The next one is supposed to destroy confidence in public institutions.
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March 26, 2019, 07:48:51 AM
 #5020


Y need to have a stock corrections too .

Not just a crack in the public bonds.
Marty seems to be making contradictory comments ( in his blog posts )

He is now saying that we are going to have a very hard landing going into 2020.   But then also says the USA market is basically going to just meander sideways ?  He says it does not APPEAR to the be the case that the USA will crash down 40 to 50% correction.

How can we have a very hard recessionary landing into 2020 without a major stock correction ?

The hard recessionary landing is supposed to pummel sovereign bonds.
Remember, 2008 was the crash in confidence in private institutions. The next one is supposed to destroy confidence in public institutions.
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