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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615360 times)
luckyplate
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February 19, 2019, 02:02:52 AM
 #4921

Here you go:

Thanks for the input from infofr . The market has been on a bullish mode so far .so any pullback after this is possible and if a lower low is supported by may this will likely mark a bullish year for stock .so again any pullback towards the bearish reversal is a time to accumulate stocks .my indicator says the market is now in greed mode. Once it reach the extreme greed it will time to watch out for a correction and that does not happen until the 26000 for Dow  is surpass.this market strength is unusual and a rally for the first 3 months of the year really set the tone of the market.

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We are now approaching the turning point in February. A failure to rally beyond this coming week will signal that we may then move to retest support going into May. Keep in mind that while US politics is now all about obstruction, May will be a major election in Europe where we see a rising tide of anti-EU candidates.


We still do not see a breakout to the upside and we would have to see a weekly closing above the 26000 level to raise that possibility. Meanwhile, this market can remain choppy as it prepares to respond to the coming change in the Business Cycle identified by the Economic Confidence Model due to turn in January 2020.


For now, governments are starting to implode on the state/province levels and certainly the municipal level. We are rapidly approaching the point where there will be the same or higher number of people collecting pensions from various governments than are presently working. This becomes economically unstable and will only result in civil unrest as it has always done throughout history.
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MA_talk
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February 19, 2019, 05:22:29 PM
 #4922

MA, I believe Armstrong also mentioned that February could be consolidation due to failure to make new lows, or something to that effect. The clarity is not great. He said we could make new lows later.

I don't think it matters really. Anyway, I've been developing my system much more. There is no such thing as the Holy Grail, but I'm pretty close. Getting into the 9X% accuracy realm isn't easy when trading intraday, but when you take all the trueisms, supply, demand, and solid bread and butter technicals, it can be done. I'm not using Armstrong or following him anymore, but I will credit him for showing me several techniques by cooincidence that I have based my own system on that work tremendously well. Its more like I pieced some of the things he said together and made my own system. I'll say his Reversals elections work much better than Cycle/Timing thing, so he can provide value.

Ok, so Armstrong said that February is a Panic Cycle, and also he said that February could be consolidation.

So if he adds that February "could" make a high, and also February "could" make a low, he would have covered all possible scenarios, and since he used "could", he canNOT be wrong.

He is really a "great" forecaster.  How about stick to a single script, and don't use "could" all the time, and make some real predictions/real trades and stick to his own predictions, and be accountable for his own "forecasting" errors?

Isn't that essentially covering all possible cases, and then go back and just point out in whichever post that actually mentioned the correct scenario (while ignoring all other misses), and then claim for the credits?

If you place all bets both up, down, and both high/low volatility, then of course, one of the bets will pay off.  But in real trading with real money, you will lose money when you don't know which scenario will pay off.
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February 20, 2019, 12:28:47 AM
 #4923

MA, I believe Armstrong also mentioned that February could be consolidation due to failure to make new lows, or something to that effect. The clarity is not great. He said we could make new lows later.

I don't think it matters really. Anyway, I've been developing my system much more. There is no such thing as the Holy Grail, but I'm pretty close. Getting into the 9X% accuracy realm isn't easy when trading intraday, but when you take all the trueisms, supply, demand, and solid bread and butter technicals, it can be done. I'm not using Armstrong or following him anymore, but I will credit him for showing me several techniques by cooincidence that I have based my own system on that work tremendously well. Its more like I pieced some of the things he said together and made my own system. I'll say his Reversals elections work much better than Cycle/Timing thing, so he can provide value.

Ok, so Armstrong said that February is a Panic Cycle, and also he said that February could be consolidation.

So if he adds that February "could" make a high, and also February "could" make a low, he would have covered all possible scenarios, and since he used "could", he canNOT be wrong.

He is really a "great" forecaster.  How about stick to a single script, and don't use "could" all the time, and make some real predictions/real trades and stick to his own predictions, and be accountable for his own "forecasting" errors?

Isn't that essentially covering all possible cases, and then go back and just point out in whichever post that actually mentioned the correct scenario (while ignoring all other misses), and then claim for the credits?

If you place all bets both up, down, and both high/low volatility, then of course, one of the bets will pay off.  But in real trading with real money, you will lose money when you don't know which scenario will pay off.


Sometimes he is clear. He clearly called for a high and said he'd be wrong only if the market made a weekly close above the 25100 level. Well, the market did just that.  I don't think he addressed that in his recent post.

This is the main reason why I stopped following. Who knows, maybe I just didn't understand him correctly and I was wrong. But if ideas cannot be clearly communicated and understood by the target audience and it's results manifested, then it's value becomes subjective.

On that subject, let's talk about Armstrong-caused losses instead of gains.
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February 20, 2019, 03:50:05 AM
 #4924

I believe the stock has some room to go higher . Martin cannot be right on spot all the time. The market some times do invert .but I expect some corrections when the next top come in .can the 26000 be the major resistance ?  Shocked
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February 20, 2019, 06:45:41 AM
 #4925

Based on my own source this bull should continue until July and then start to consolidate downwards if the current vertical market continues in the bull direction. There is a high chance of breaking the 27000 level for a top this year .after that it should be a great shorting opportunity .the market should bounce like a yo-yo and test both extreme  highs and lows . patience  . Roll Eyes
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February 20, 2019, 09:00:03 AM
 #4926

Armstrong said that the weekly to watch is 25980 and there is also a daily at 25966.5 which we have now reached. Yesterday was a turning point and we could not elect the reversal so it should be the high. It is also a weekly turning point so it could also mean the high is in for the week.

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February 20, 2019, 04:22:58 PM
 #4927

MA, I believe Armstrong also mentioned that February could be consolidation due to failure to make new lows, or something to that effect. The clarity is not great. He said we could make new lows later.

I don't think it matters really. Anyway, I've been developing my system much more. There is no such thing as the Holy Grail, but I'm pretty close. Getting into the 9X% accuracy realm isn't easy when trading intraday, but when you take all the trueisms, supply, demand, and solid bread and butter technicals, it can be done. I'm not using Armstrong or following him anymore, but I will credit him for showing me several techniques by cooincidence that I have based my own system on that work tremendously well. Its more like I pieced some of the things he said together and made my own system. I'll say his Reversals elections work much better than Cycle/Timing thing, so he can provide value.

Ok, so Armstrong said that February is a Panic Cycle, and also he said that February could be consolidation.

So if he adds that February "could" make a high, and also February "could" make a low, he would have covered all possible scenarios, and since he used "could", he canNOT be wrong.

He is really a "great" forecaster.  How about stick to a single script, and don't use "could" all the time, and make some real predictions/real trades and stick to his own predictions, and be accountable for his own "forecasting" errors?

Isn't that essentially covering all possible cases, and then go back and just point out in whichever post that actually mentioned the correct scenario (while ignoring all other misses), and then claim for the credits?

If you place all bets both up, down, and both high/low volatility, then of course, one of the bets will pay off.  But in real trading with real money, you will lose money when you don't know which scenario will pay off.


Sometimes he is clear. He clearly called for a high and said he'd be wrong only if the market made a weekly close above the 25100 level. Well, the market did just that.  I don't think he addressed that in his recent post.

This is the main reason why I stopped following. Who knows, maybe I just didn't understand him correctly and I was wrong. But if ideas cannot be clearly communicated and understood by the target audience and it's results manifested, then it's value becomes subjective.

On that subject, let's talk about Armstrong-caused losses instead of gains.

bikefront, that is exactly always my point.  Science is based on scientific methods, meaning that the results can ALWAYS be duplicated.  The question here is whether Armstrong's blog/research or scam can deliver a positive non-trivial profitable value to his subscribers.  If the process of delivering this information is most of the time obscure (to hide all the forecasting errors), then scientifically, there is NO value.

Armstrong always quotes science, and laugh at economists.  But he cannot even consistently deliver values to the subscribers.

If one always say that every scenario "could" happen, or never count the losses/errors when he is wrong, of course, he is "always right".  Or if he uses 3.14, 3.14*1000, 3.14*100, 8.6, 8.616, 8.6xxxx, 72, 25.8, 26, 51.6, 52, 223, 224, 306, all sorts of numbers, and multiply them with days, weeks, months, quarters, years, and even 1 million years, and fill up the entire number line, and randomly pick worldwide international events to fit any points, of course, his Economic Confidence Model (ECM) will seem like to be magic.

Guess what, Armstrong cannot tell the difference between 10/01/2015, versus 10/07/2015 for his last ECM date.  To him, the math works out the same.  That is his "science".
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February 21, 2019, 03:55:55 AM
 #4928

A double top is possible if 26000 is surpass .with trump drumming the stock market .I can see the high in Dow  will be restested unless north Korea fire a missile at trump now .
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February 21, 2019, 06:54:13 AM
 #4929

Base on market structure if no correction comes before may this year  Dow can rally another 3000 points .my sources say correction will be minor and will be buying opportunity .the Dow has crack 26000 . failing to retest the 25000 by next week will indicate a likely breakout condition .what a yo yo this is .it still not extreme greed yet. Hand on to your horse .
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February 22, 2019, 04:45:02 PM
 #4930

so how are you doing, sheep? What, Marti the Charlatan fucked you again? Who would have thought? 
Keep buying spx puts and waiting for the panic cycle promised you for weeks now.
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February 22, 2019, 07:42:42 PM
 #4931

Shorted the top today but theta ate ensuing delta gain, closed at breakeven. Made some from a long trade before that. Yesterday was a perfect double volatility support point to short the very top for a big gain only a nickel off...if I wasn't busy at work. It was an infrequent setup but a clear and easy one that I missed. Next time... Seriously should consider my own monthly daytrading service.

Armstrong users should only take his trades if they have their own analysis to back it up, and not as a matter of confirmation bias. Or they should have their own risk management system and exit themselves if they enter on his criteria. Or trade only reversals and ignore timing, assuming that reversals are more consistent. Going all in by itself is a recipe for disaster. I'm also yet hear of some big names talk about Armstrong from somewhere other than his blog.

Unlike some other critics, I do think Armstrong has value but his main problem is that there is no objective public record of his calls. He doesnt follow up on the wrong calls. A lot is explained away by subjectivity when he says it's completely objective. Except when it works, then it's fine. Trades are apparently made by timing, but then 'let the market show' by waiting for reversal election. Yes, sometimes he does clarify and it makes sense, fair enough. If it is a matter of communication, he should get someone to be a spokesman. It's not an expensive service so some can be forgiven but if it makes you lose money, it has a negative value.

But my biggest percentage gains were still by Armstrong via the support and resistance, reversals, etc. But NOT by timing. But thats something users would have to go and backtest themselves because there is no record.
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February 22, 2019, 07:48:11 PM
 #4932

If only I held a few more mins, I could have caught that drop...
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February 22, 2019, 09:15:47 PM
 #4933

Bought the dip with 0 days and closed for peanuts. It then proceeded to triple in value at close.
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February 23, 2019, 01:51:37 AM
 #4934

Been having serious FOMO after my quick flip almost a month ago (which Bike and I successfully traded). Got a new job that doesn't really afford me time to keep up with the trading day as it goes.

However, I agree with Bike that Marty and his system are on to SOMETHING and they work very well in CONJUNCTION with your own system if you have it established. Maybe Marty should just market Socrates like it should be - a supplement to what you already have in place. Kind of like just another reference point, because like Bike says (which I want to hear more specifics about), when you go through several different methodologies and systems, and they all agree on a certain target, then it's a pretty damn good bet.

What do the PROS use that is different than what we use, really? They look at OHLC and candlesticks and MACD and moving averages, volume, fib pivots, elliott wave, fucking tarot cards and horoscopes...WE ALL LOOK AT THE SAME SHIT.   

Looking hard this weekend at the most beaten-up Chinese ETFs. Once the tariffs are lifted (and it looks to be soon) the Chinese market is going to fucking explode.

Can someone PLEASE post the new private blog? Lost my free access after the recent updates. Without those arrays specifically I'm back to the drawing board but that's OK because my own system worked. I'll admit, though, that it worked better with the private blog numbers and arrays. 
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February 23, 2019, 02:24:35 AM
 #4935

Pls help to post Martin new private blog on 23 Feb .
My guess is he will say a breakup is possible now and to watch for 26 XXX level next.  Roll Eyes
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February 24, 2019, 02:13:58 AM
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 #4936

Footlong, I don't use any indicators at all. I use concrete supply and demand price points on exclusively the daily timeframe. However, I look at various indices simultaneously in order to detect the 'real' reversal point. What do I mean by this? Well, let's say that I see a certain point as closest resistance on the Dow. I don't know if that point will bounce or break through. I also look at the Nasdaq for the closest resistance, as well as the S&P 500. When they both score a 'hit' at the same time, that will be my signal to know it is the 'real' one. The indices to tend to have high/low points of the day at the same time, so it works generally. Days of high amount of divergence are a weakness for this method, eg sector rotation and such. Several points to consider:

-Make sure that you would have a good winrate even if looked at in isolation. Basic rules like 'first time touch only' help tremendously in picking out the good line touches. This is important!!! Because, hypothetically, any random points can be drawn and then by pure chance 2 will be hit eventually, which does not actually have any technical basis whatsoever. Additionally, this will also help in reducing losing trades by picking out the best standalone point systems.

-First touches are important. A double bottom vs a triple vs a quad.... The more it's tested, the more obvious it becomes. A point where it forms the initial potential major high or low for the day is what you want, not a retest to form a double top/bottom.

-Volume. Using, say, a 5 min candle and seeing volume go high, even approaching or exceeding the first couple of volume bars of the day when they occur later is unusual. If it happen at/near a price point, then it implies a large amount of opposite orders of the intraday trend, eg possible reversal is being detected by the big boys. Trade with them. See Wyckoff theory for more. This actually works remarkable well intraday, and I don't even need to use a double hit on these types of setups. Bonus boost likelihood if the high volume candle has a relatively small amount of price range.

I took the double hit strategy from Armstrong, even though he didn't explicitly state it. I sort of formed it somehow. I also thing the same can be done not only on indices, but other correlated asset pairs (eg gold and silver, gasoline and oil, etc). I have all my points made in advance, so I don't actually have to draw anything. On the occasion, a new range will develop, but it doesn't harm me, only that I was not able to profit from what I did not know.
There are other things in regards to this strategy, but that is the bread-and-butter of it. I don't like indicators because they tend to work only in the conditions they were meant to measure. For example, VWAP, RSI, etc. all fail in trending in environments. Price points show 'gaps' similar to Socrates reversals and other technical systems. When you look at price points only, there are lots of insight you'll gain. Eg price goes up too quick and fast, supposedly, but it is completely irrelevant. People don't realize that 'fill' matters. Eg if price shoots up and does not revisit, chances for a short increase. However, when it does go back, even for a short period, I'd consider it filled if it breaks back above the 'real' line. That will be the new 'low' price, but most people still think it too high. This is the concrete basis of supply and demand.
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February 24, 2019, 02:22:10 AM
 #4937

https://i.imgur.com/qykcY5B.png Basic example on Friday's session... See /VX and VXXB having the same thing. The initial support double touch already tested yesterday and knowing its mean reversion nature, it would not be a good idea to try again. It broke the line and becae resistance, as you can see. Also see how QQQ became resistance. When it dropped, The low of the day actually became volatility's resistance point. Furthering this idea was the high volume bars on the low, a chance to exit the short and go long. As mentioned on Friday, I did go long, but I closed far too early. See 11:35 vs 11:40 volume bars in relation to how little price changed on the low spread price bars, right on the line. This is textbook VSA. Coupled with supply and demand, it is super strong. I disagree with the Fib/elliot/tarot thingy...most people use a lot of random stuff because they don't know what works. Once you find it, trading becomes a matter of reading the market like an open book.

I could be wrong, and I don't like to make predictions because I need to actually look at other price points as things unfold as well as price action itself, but if/when VXXB hits 30.13, it will probably bounce. Unless it gets close for a while on a previous day before actually hitting on another day, which may not. However, if it didn't and its barreling towards it, it will more than likely work.
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February 25, 2019, 02:51:50 AM
 #4938

we need a 13% drop in the next 4 trading days to make February a panic cycle month..... lets see if we get a mega drop going into March 1st
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February 25, 2019, 08:33:42 AM
 #4939


That would a meltdown. Quite unlikely .a pullback towards spx 2600 more likely .a meltdown would be another excellent time To load up and short the market. My personal analysis is a blow up top follow by a declined triangle pattern .

we need a 13% drop in the next 4 trading days to make February a panic cycle month..... lets see if we get a mega drop going into March 1st
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February 25, 2019, 04:05:25 PM
 #4940

we need a 13% drop in the next 4 trading days to make February a panic cycle month..... lets see if we get a mega drop going into March 1st

Don't you worry.  Armstrong will never comment on his (or rather AI's) mistakes, because his AI is PERFECT.

And nobody will remember or keep track of all the countless mistakes in the forecast, because human by default only remembers the most memorable events.  So we will all remember that Armstrong or his AI computer hits BIG time after time.

The only problem is how are we going to recover all the trading losses & lost opportunities from all the other mistakes.

And that is not a problem either, since there is always the survivor bias, meaning that the guys who are still around commenting survived through all the mistakes by their own excellent trading, or by luck (since by probabilities, there is always some percentage of people who will survive).

Due to the survivor bias, those who somehow don't "identify" the "gems of Armstrong's blog", simply will not be around anywhere on the internet, due to all the losses racked up, and possibly unable to pay anything.

I will repeat this again.  Scientific results are ALWAYS repeatable.  If not ALL people who perform the same experiments canNOT get the SAME (successful trading) results, then that thing is just baloney, and not true.

Therefore, if Armstrong's AI computer is that great, he should make an effort in making sure that all subscribers can get excellent trading results by issuing ACTUAL BUY & SELL.  That way, everything is repeatable and successful.

So why is he NOT doing that???  Just maybe he needs the subscribers' money, or maybe he or his AI computer simply canNOT trade successfully???
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