Martin Armstrong Discussion

[olegrey]

Let's try again to trade it, this time monthly reversals. Date elected: 2019-04-30, traded for one month until 2019-05-31

GDAX monthly bullish 5% loss
GDX monthly bearish 3.4% loss
SP 500 monthly bullish 6.6% loss
TLT monthly bearish 6.6% loss
/ZW Wheat futures monthly bearish 17.4% loss

This is garden variety stuff.

Now where has the AI computer with wheat prices back to 1259 been hiding?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/the-rise-in-agriculture-for-the-next-ecm/
Posted Jun 17, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
We have wheat prices back to 1259. Clearly, the projections it makes are all inclusive of weather and disease, for everything unfolds in a cycle.

Let me make this clear. We have had a 17% wheat price rise. The computer projection, a monthly bearish reversal, calls for a decline with a gap of -5% which is clearly the opposite. So what he is writing in his blog, is pure propaganda bullshit. The article is at least a month too late. That is NOT a successful projection.

What does GDAX stand for, German DAX? The crypto trading market? 

[AnonymousCoder]

...
What does GDAX stand for, German DAX? The crypto trading market?

German DAX.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[olegrey]

Simplicity is better

I started shorting Brazil last week when it had the temp high. Low risk high reward. Simple to find.

No single signal in Socrates about it, actually it is still bullish from what I have heard. So far, profitable even while the start was a bit scary.

So what would have happened had I traded Socrates?

Weekly reversals elected 2019-06-07, traded for a week Friday to Friday close 2019-06-07 to 2019-06-14

$DXY weekly bearish 1% loss
EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
GDAX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.0% loss
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% loss
Visa weekly bullish 0.2% loss
Cotton weekly bearish 0.5% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 0.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 2.1% loss

That is a fairly good cross section of the market, of what was elected, I guess. No winner.

I would not want to extend this depressing experiment by another two weeks waiting while these trades come right while I can have a profit within a week with something better.

All my percentage line up with yours except for the weekly bullish GDAX.  The GDAX elected the bullish reversal at 12045.38 and ended the first week at 12096.4 for a gain of 0.4% instead of a loss of 0.4%

[MA_talk]

Superposition Event in the Blog

Here we have a Revision Event in the private blog. As has been noted before, these events borrow from the future.

In this case, a daily bearish is elected on Thursday 2018-10-11, a weekly bearish is elected on Friday 2018-10-12. Then on Monday that Revision event comes out of the blue because the system discovers that it has been wrong.

US Share Market Afternoon Update
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, October 11, 2018

The Dow is trading at 25360 after we got the mid-day rally. A close today below 25454 will keep the market weak. A closing BELOW 25294 today should signal a further decline and the next low may unfold on Monday. If we get this sell signal, then we should move to the next Weekly Bearish which lies at the 24965 level and if that is elected tomorrow, then we should test the Monthly Bearish in the 23 zone next week.

We are setting the stage for a real interesting outcome here right on time for the WEC


The DOW closed below 25294 at 25052.83, so we got we got the sell signal.

The Markets for the Week of 10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
...
We encountered a Superposition situation on the Weekly Level in the Dow electing two long-term term Weekly Bullish Reversals against a Short-term Weekly Bearish.



What this means that you go short on Thursday and Friday, make a loss, and the following Monday Martin comes out saying that the system was right again. These two long-term Weekly Bullish Reversals were NOT available on Friday. They come the next week.

If you look at the chart, even on its own terms it is not correct because the bullish movement is shorter term than the bearish movement.

Nobody would expect that a system is always right and accurate, but the claims are outlandish, and it helps to document what happened.

Could I have your permission to re-publish this & related REVISION comments at armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com ?

Thanks.

[AnonymousCoder]

Superposition Event in the Blog

Here we have a Revision Event in the private blog. As has been noted before, these events borrow from the future.

In this case, a daily bearish is elected on Thursday 2018-10-11, a weekly bearish is elected on Friday 2018-10-12. Then on Monday that Revision event comes out of the blue because the system discovers that it has been wrong.

US Share Market Afternoon Update
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, October 11, 2018

The Dow is trading at 25360 after we got the mid-day rally. A close today below 25454 will keep the market weak. A closing BELOW 25294 today should signal a further decline and the next low may unfold on Monday. If we get this sell signal, then we should move to the next Weekly Bearish which lies at the 24965 level and if that is elected tomorrow, then we should test the Monthly Bearish in the 23 zone next week.

We are setting the stage for a real interesting outcome here right on time for the WEC


The DOW closed below 25294 at 25052.83, so we got the sell signal.

The Markets for the Week of 10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
...
We encountered a Superposition situation on the Weekly Level in the Dow electing two long-term term Weekly Bullish Reversals against a Short-term Weekly Bearish.



What this means that you go short on Thursday and Friday, make a loss, and the following Monday Martin comes out saying that the system was right again. These two long-term Weekly Bullish Reversals were NOT available on Friday. They come the next week.

If you look at the chart, even on its own terms it is not correct because the bullish movement is shorter term than the bearish movement.

Nobody would expect that a system is always right and accurate, but the claims are outlandish, and it helps to document what happened.

Could I have your permission to re-publish this & related REVISION comments at armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com ?

Thanks.

Yes no problem. I have made a minor spelling correction to my post.

See:

Revision Signals



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[AnonymousCoder]

...
All my percentage line up with yours except for the weekly bullish GDAX. The GDAX elected the bullish reversal at 12045.38 and ended the first week at 12096.4 for a gain of 0.4% instead of a loss of 0.4%

Thanks for the heads up. Sorry I was wrong. I will correct my original post.




Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[trulycoined]

On the talk about how rich MA is, it turns out he LOST his appeal over the forfeiture of his personal assets back in April of this year. If he did acquire those assets legitimately, then I do feel for him.

Those assets, mainly ancient coins by the sounds of it, were valued at US$80m:
https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2019/04/23/ex-trader-armstrong-loses-appeal-over-personal-property-liquidation/

Curiously, those assets may have been worth a lot more than that, since US$80m was the precise amount of his restitution that was ordered back in 2007:
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/11/business/worldbusiness/11iht-contempt.1.5226724.html


So he clearly does have a lot of wealth, and who knows how much more was hidden away?

Related to that restitution order, Armstrong was also banned from "trading, applying for registration, engaging in any activity requiring registration or acting as a principal of any registered entity or person". That ties into my theory about him now tapping up the retail market with reports and conferences. He might be banned for life offering financial consulting services to institutional investors. That might also explain the cultist hype and clever ambiguity of his ECM - there isn't anyone in authority or with experience to question it.
https://www.hedgeweek.com/2009/08/25/martin-armstrong-and-two-firms-pay-usd27m-anti-fraud-action

Also found this as an interesting read into what MA was up to back in 1999. There is a detailed description that I have not come across:
https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20040523/STORY/100014712?template=printart&template=printart

I still theorise he made some terrible gambles with the tobashi scheme his was running, in the hope those gambles would come good. He then walks off a billionaire, and the investors get their money back. Instead, when it all started going wrong, he then fell into gambler's fallacy and started making bigger and bigger losses. Maybe those losses would have eventually turned good, but it was too late. His brokerage bank found out about the losses/fraud as part of their due diligence before being sold to HSBC. Were it not for that perhaps MA really would be the world's richest man. As he always reminds his readers, it is just a matter of timing.

[AnonymousCoder]

Hmm. I wonder how the superposition thing should be dealt with when testing. Does the attempt to test the next Reversal get invalidated or not, eg should it be held or cut?

The Superposition / Revision case is a fraud. See

Revision Signals

It is also a very dangerous entry point for front-running. Just imagine, Socrates elects a weekly bearish reversal. Everybody goes short. Martin Armstrong receives a revision signal and can trade against this crowd whose members become his bag holders. Why is it so convenient? Because he gets notified of the revision event before the report comes out the day after and in case of weekly has a full day to trade the opposite side to make a killing before anyone else gets the signal.

Fraud discredits the system as a whole, and testing becomes a futile exercise if you start following this rabbit hole. The best you can do is to be aware of it and ignore it. You may want to decide to not trade on the election event but, in the case of weekly, one trading day later, on Monday. Then you can trade the revised reversals in the opposite direction. But then you lose profit potential. Can you see how screwed-up this system is?



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[AnonymousCoder]

Socrates and AI (Artificial Intelligence)

Martin Armstrong mentioned in his public blog numerous times, that his computer uses AI.

However, when someone reported to him another trading method actually using AI (neural networks), he dismisses the concept, saying he tried it unsuccessfully.

True AI and Fake Neural Net Forecasting Programs


So is he the father of a new otherwise unknown AI concept (true AI) far too complex for other people to understand?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[AnonymousCoder]

Zero Intelligence in Socrates

In Socrates, depending on subscription level, one gets on a daily level a signal:

False reaction for now on this level

This is a bearish signal, essentially noting that a bounce has gone too far up, and a move back down can be expected. It is based on pattern matches.

However, these signals may be generated at the same time with the election of daily bullish reversals, creating a conflict that is not mentioned in the reports.

There is absolutely no coordination between ANY of the signals, no attempt to resolve such conflicts.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[etoimene]

, if a bullish reversal is at 100 and we close at 100.05 then we have elected it.
.. not exactly 1 point ...

With currencies it often turns within a pip, so ...
With indexes, it is not so precise.

100% precision, forget it! Even he wrote that you have to know when you are wrong.

BTW, I feel very lonely here.

[luckyplate]

We are supposed to discuss his private blogs .why do this website keep blabbering about those side topics that don't benefits anyone
??

Martin cannot be right all the time because he does not use the time factor    ..but he is right generally on the broad side .major reversal signal.  That should give traders an edge. Big trades are made only a few time a year. 

, if a bullish reversal is at 100 and we close at 100.05 then we have elected it.
.. not exactly 1 point ...

With currencies it often turns within a pip, so ...
With indexes, it is not so precise.

100% precision, forget it! Even he wrote that you have to know when you are wrong.

BTW, I feel very lonely here.

[AnonymousCoder]

Quote from that article: A computer will not be able to learn all scenarios if the data does not cover all scenarios. Plain and simple. Just ask - SHOW ME THE DATA and WHERE DID YOU GET IT?
...

I have done a fair bit of neural network and evolutionary programming to predict time series and to optimize trading strategies. Stuff that far exceeds in complexity what Martin Armstrong is doing with his disaster code.

True, if you had all the data in all dimensions, a few supercomputers and hordes of programmers and analysts, you would be able to make some predictions with that. But in comparison with the pattern matching machinery in a single human brain, it would still be lacking. The human pattern matching ability is absolutely unmatched in quality. Just try. Look at thousands of charts and keep trading - you will get better and better. If you are still getting frustrated, and you will, guaranteed, then there are reasons for that: Mainly unpredictability and greed. It is as simple as that. There are events that come out of the blue, market manipulation, insider trading, just market participants trying to out-smart each other. That's the game, and it is unpredictable, random to a large extent. It is similar to getting sea-sick in a ship.

Martin Armstrong keeps telling his audience in his blogs that only his computer can manage the complexity. I do not believe it. First we know it can't be true based on the experience that has been documented here in this great blog. I have demonstrated here that Socrates is dumb. It does not even try to consolidate multiple conflicting signals. Second, we can't believe Martin's statements because he has a clear motive to sell his computer- based Socrates junk, the reports and the conferences. Third, and most importantly, all his models look only at a single time series, the market under study. The future price movement is just not hidden in the past price history as he wants us to believe. It does not matter how far back that time series goes - we know that it does not work.

And now I am going full circle. If the future price movement was in fact predictable from past price movement, then with the human pattern matching ability available to thousands if not millions, this would have been discovered long ago.

And then what? Everybody wins with that knowledge? Question: Who takes the other side of the trade?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[etoimene]

if the data does not cover all scenarios.

AI and machine learning doesn't have all possible data, but identifies the patterns in old to recognize new.

For the Superposition Reversals,

These are rare. Stop loss is enough to handle this, I think.

[etoimene]

It does not even try to consolidate multiple conflicting signals.

True. Socrates is not a trading system. It does not provide buy/sell signals.

Some trading strategies are provided on AE site/blog but I think it is not even near

And then what? Everybody wins with that knowledge? Question: Who takes the other side of the trade?

Obviously, you are not using it, so it's not everybody. He wrote there will always be enough skeptics.

BTW, I did try a few trades with currencies which bounced precisely of reversal without using any arrays and that seems to work good. Trick is to be patient and wait for bounce (look for pin bar or similar pattern). Very low risk trades. Profit was 5-10 times the risk, so I am fine with that.

[AnonymousCoder]

...
Socrates is not a trading system. It does not provide buy/sell signals.

Give me a break. Sounds like Martin Armstrong's support person. True Armstrong style.

Here we go:

Last sentence in a Socrates report:

We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

So either this is a sell signal, or if it is not then it is garbage.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[DanB1]

Would be interesting to see what gold does at 1362.
MA has been yelling for a long time that that is an important monthly bullish.

Gold is now trading at ~1354

[MA_talk]

Socrates and AI (Artificial Intelligence)

Martin Armstrong mentioned in his public blog numerous times, that his computer uses AI.

However, when someone reported to him another trading method actually using AI (neural networks), he dismisses the concept, saying he tried it unsuccessfully.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/true-ai-and-fake-neural-net-forecasting-programs/

So is he the father of a new otherwise unknown AI concept (true AI) far too complex for other people to understand?

I'm familiar with neural nets, and what he said in that post actually showed his inability of using it.  If anything, it is his Socrates that is rudimentary.  You need huge farm of GPU to do neural nets on financial markets, and he most likely has no understanding.  He also said that GMW had

The GMW has now exceeded 150,000 possible patterns each day and counting.

As I have said in previous posts, having 150000 "possible" patterns (and counting) is TOTALLY LUDICROUS.  NOT even a single pattern he can trade off that to make a profit, when you don't even have some probability distribution that shows any profitable opportunities.  I believe his "pattern recognition" is probably something like forming patterns of up/dn/up/dn (or adding percentage), along with different timeframe on daily/weekly/monthly.  That's like forming rubbish English sentences with A-Z, and call them as patterns (without any probability forecasting ability).

And Armstrong said at the end, "Show me the data".  Well, when trulycoined questioned him during WEC on the data accuracy and source, what did he respond???

Armstrong is a person with double-standard.

[MA_talk]

On the talk about how rich MA is, it turns out he LOST his appeal over the forfeiture of his personal assets back in April of this year. If he did acquire those assets legitimately, then I do feel for him.

Those assets, mainly ancient coins by the sounds of it, were valued at US$80m:
https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2019/04/23/ex-trader-armstrong-loses-appeal-over-personal-property-liquidation/

Curiously, those assets may have been worth a lot more than that, since US$80m was the precise amount of his restitution that was ordered back in 2007:
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/11/business/worldbusiness/11iht-contempt.1.5226724.html


So he clearly does have a lot of wealth, and who knows how much more was hidden away?

Related to that restitution order, Armstrong was also banned from "trading, applying for registration, engaging in any activity requiring registration or acting as a principal of any registered entity or person". That ties into my theory about him now tapping up the retail market with reports and conferences. He might be banned for life offering financial consulting services to institutional investors. That might also explain the cultist hype and clever ambiguity of his ECM - there isn't anyone in authority or with experience to question it.
https://www.hedgeweek.com/2009/08/25/martin-armstrong-and-two-firms-pay-usd27m-anti-fraud-action

Also found this as an interesting read into what MA was up to back in 1999. There is a detailed description that I have not come across:
https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20040523/STORY/100014712?template=printart&template=printart

I still theorise he made some terrible gambles with the tobashi scheme his was running, in the hope those gambles would come good. He then walks off a billionaire, and the investors get their money back. Instead, when it all started going wrong, he then fell into gambler's fallacy and started making bigger and bigger losses. Maybe those losses would have eventually turned good, but it was too late. His brokerage bank found out about the losses/fraud as part of their due diligence before being sold to HSBC. Were it not for that perhaps MA really would be the world's richest man. As he always reminds his readers, it is just a matter of timing.

The following of my opinions assume that the government version of Armstrong story is correct:

Based on SEC lawsuit, Armstrong ran a Ponzi scheme, and incurred huge losses to their investors.  Why would Armstrong blamed on the traders who executed the trades for him?  That in a way already admitted that there were ACTUAL LOSSES.

Armstrong obviously set the management fee on the phantom gain of client's portfolio.  When you do that, you can obviously be very wealthy, since you're just stealing from clients.  And so ANY assets acquired (or not) should be used to repay the investors.  80 million is most likely not sufficient to repay the investors.

He is obviously BANNED in the institutional services.  But no laws against anybody who publish their opinions about stock market, since it is protected by the first amendment.  The only huge problem that I have is that Armstrong is just NOT HONEST (like many other stock newsletter writers, except that he is the best liar).  In all likelihood, his "AI" spits out unusable rubbish, but he call his system "legendary".

For certain, he stashed away something.  He was selling his Roman coins on his own website.  No one would know how much more, but as far as I could understand from reading all the legal docs, that is the part of his contempt of the court, unwilling to produce the assets for the court.

[etoimene]

Give me a break. Sounds like Martin Armstrong's support person. True Armstrong style.

Wish I was. I would probably be able to find someone to clear the fog around arrays for me.

You did choose nicely what suits you and gave reference to the reversal system (which I referenced as trading strategies).
Socrates manual says you should combine the info, but not exactly how.
That's why I think it is not a system. System should be clearly defined, and Socrates use definitely isn't.

I just realized this.
Check clause 14. of https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/about/terms-and-conditions-of-use/ !
Have you ever thought that giving clear buy/sell signals - investment advice would jeopardize the company. It is probably not licensed for such purpose.
I don't know all the details in the USA, but I definitely would not want to go through this compliance pain in my country.


How about commenting the other part of my post?