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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 615677 times)
bikefront
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April 26, 2019, 01:14:41 PM
 #5201

I don't get all this bashing on Armstrong. Before finding out about Armstrong, I was Austrian school of economy. Still though not feeling comfortable, because some of the things were unfolding opposite of what Austrians (or any other economic school for that matter) was preaching. And that's how I found Armstrong, this was the only guy who got the things right, regarding the aftermath of the last GFC. After I found out about him, went back on his blog, and check his previous writings. Following him for few years now, and I don't think there is anyone else close to him, who can explain economy subject better (I give Taleb a credit though). All these economy schools now appear to be Mickey Mouse comparing to Armstrong teachings.
Now, about the trading. Would I use Armstrong for daily trading, more likely that not, I would not, primarily, but rely on other trading tools. His medium, long term predictions, hell yes. And definitely would like to have access to his reversal numbers, on a bigger time scale (weekly and up).
He mentioned few times that he is writing a book. I hope he will finish it and publish it, can't wait for it.


Found this review of MA's forecasts:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i0gU95pkSg_oAGyxhxtQlZHkGPVkywAH/view?usp=sharing


Makes for an interesting read and well referenced. He (or more specifically, his "computer") has been wrong on a number of occasions.

I am not trying to dig dirt, have met MA and do think he's a nice guy, though by no means perfect. I was considering going to the Rome WEC, but feel being sceptical of everything is sensible, which is how I found this thread. I was loathe to paying out thousands where that money might be better spent investing in equities, and especially if the ECM is only partially correct, then I really am losing interest. It isn't worth forking out thousands of dollars for each year.

It would appear his model isn't much better than any other well researched economist who understands history and repeatable outcomes of human nature. That is something I observe daily in both work and life - you just have to know what to look for.

I do think his grasp of socioeconomic issues is world class. I truly have learnt a lot about why the EU is so flawed to potentially what might happen with Western Civilisation. His ECM called the date on the latter, I just wonder if it will be a repeat of 2015.75 and it will come to pass without much fanfare.


those numbers are all technical numbers nothing based on the reversal
System, that pdf is a joke actually trying to use the breakout-line as hard evidence what a disgrace.

Of course Armstrong has been wrong countless of times but that was simply his opinion and him speculating on what he thought might happen at that time which is of course is subject to change. The reversal system has never been wrong and if you knew anything that would be your focus.

If you think that report has any credibility you have failed to understand how this model is even supposed to be used. Armstrong said it himself ultimately my opinion means nothing, JUST PLAY IT BY THE NUMBERS

2015.75 was indeed very significant for many reasons including that fact that
 Quote "Russia invaded Syria on the very day of the Economic Confidence Model, it signaled that Syria would be a focal point of this wave" "Russia gave the U.S. one hour notice before they began bombing both ISIS and rebels who were seeking to overthrow the Syrian government. It is extremely curious that this is beginning precisely on the day of the ECM. Will this prove to be the start of an international war?"


@whizzledog if its a double it will say "Dbi" which is very rare


I have to agree here. The cycle timing isn't 100% but nothing in the posted article suggested that the Reversals were invalidated. The only time the Reversals were mentioned in the pdf, they ended up being correct.
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April 26, 2019, 11:34:31 PM
 #5202

@bikefront
"If the candle has a lot of volume but not a lot of price movement, this implies a reversal, as it necessarily means that the opposite position is being taken. Think about it. If a stock declines by 0.10% and has a volume of 10,000, but later has a decline of the 0.09% and a volume of 20,000 in that candle, this means there was more buyer mixed in than before. More big boys are entering. This can be seen on all timeframes, but it is super easy to see on the 5 min candle."
Golden, Thank You.

@trulycoined
Thank You for sharing MA private blog, golden as well. Now, hmmm?? Directional change can be within the trend (bull taking it higher, bear taking it lower). I'm not really following DOW in details, but one thing is certain, lots of volatility. One to assume that would come from the chaos which awaits in front. Looking at the bigger picture (US economy only one performing, e.g. today's GDP), there is no real other place for the money to go, as per Armstrong.
He says "between now and the next Monetary Crisis Cycle.", which means USD higher. So, money will go to USD, will go to DOW, even to US Treasuries, and when SHTF, Gold.
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April 28, 2019, 01:31:39 AM
 #5203

I understand that Socrates is better by trading longer timeframes on the Reversals. Can we trade Daily level Reversals with the same level of accuracy and reliability as the Weekly+ level? I also assume that narrowly elected Reversals are better, especially with the Daily timeframe, as you have less movement to work with, so it might be better to trade the Weekly+ level. Just wanted to know. Perhaps if tehre is a big Daily level gap, then it can be better traded.
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April 30, 2019, 02:50:27 AM
 #5204

Idk, don't have access to the Reversals to try them out in that fashion, just what Armstrong is providing on his blog.
Strike Eagle 26
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April 30, 2019, 04:48:53 PM
Last edit: April 30, 2019, 06:27:55 PM by Strike Eagle 26
 #5205

I understand that Socrates is better by trading longer timeframes on the Reversals. Can we trade Daily level Reversals with the same level of accuracy and reliability as the Weekly+ level? I also assume that narrowly elected Reversals are better, especially with the Daily timeframe, as you have less movement to work with, so it might be better to trade the Weekly+ level. Just wanted to know. Perhaps if tehre is a big Daily level gap, then it can be better traded.

Yes daily reversals are also very accurate only the market will often gravitate towards the weekly/monthly reversals going into the end of a given week or month.  If you want to day trade then the daily reversals work best since the expected move should occur within 1 to 3 days.. Usually the very next day.  If the market closes well above or below a elected reversal it will often retest it before moving in the expected direction.

The GMW can be used to alert you to potential big moves.   regarding the array "NORMALLY one turning point is followed by the OPPOSITE event on the next." its best to start from the monthly and work your way down to the daily, this includes the reversals
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May 01, 2019, 02:37:20 AM
 #5206

I understand that Socrates is better by trading longer timeframes on the Reversals. Can we trade Daily level Reversals with the same level of accuracy and reliability as the Weekly+ level? I also assume that narrowly elected Reversals are better, especially with the Daily timeframe, as you have less movement to work with, so it might be better to trade the Weekly+ level. Just wanted to know. Perhaps if tehre is a big Daily level gap, then it can be better traded.

Yes daily reversals are also very accurate only the market will often gravitate towards the weekly/monthly reversals going into the end of a given week or month.  If you want to day trade then the daily reversals work best since the expected move should occur within 1 to 3 days.. Usually the very next day.  If the market closes well above or below a elected reversal it will often retest it before moving in the expected direction.

The GMW can be used to alert you to potential big moves.   regarding the array "NORMALLY one turning point is followed by the OPPOSITE event on the next." its best to start from the monthly and work your way down to the daily, this includes the reversals

And only the Major Reversals are accurate, correct? I am under the impression that Minor ones are too easily overcome by other ones or do not have the same kind of validity.
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May 01, 2019, 09:27:51 PM
 #5207

https://www.screencast.com/t/nXryq1OAog

Hello all

Started with Socrates pro version the last month to track the Dow, today was the first Daily Major reversal elected since following.
Plan is to follow and track reversals to see how it shakes out.
Interesting how today's high tagged the trendline from the Oct high and the same slope as the trendline from Jan 2018 high.

cheers
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May 01, 2019, 10:56:27 PM
 #5208

Consolidating my notes from MA's blog articles:

So May and July are the next points in TIME - should be opposite events.

Someone here mentioned 6 May week was the highest bar.. is that still the case?

Armstrong has said he doesn't see new highs above that of 2018 until we enter 2020, but we are building a higher base.

He also says we are preparing for a Slingshot move.  23200 looks to be important support.  Only trade using the Weekly Bearish - not on your anticipation.

No rush to jump in until we take out the 4th Weekly Bull and then make new highs above 2018.

Once we break out of the 2018 high, expect to test the 30000 level by 2021 - even 35000 by that time.

This year's WEC will discuss the 'Channel Move' - I guess this is where DOW shoots up to a new base level..
Written 1 Jan 2018 private blog:'This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000.'
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May 02, 2019, 12:44:31 AM
 #5209

https://www.screencast.com/t/nXryq1OAog

Hello all

Started with Socrates pro version the last month to track the Dow, today was the first Daily Major reversal elected since following.
Plan is to follow and track reversals to see how it shakes out.
Interesting how today's high tagged the trendline from the Oct high and the same slope as the trendline from Jan 2018 high.

cheers

Can you give the next Reversal it is supposed to test, as it was elected?
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May 02, 2019, 12:01:36 PM
 #5210


Slingshot move in 2019 or 2020 ??
Will stock goes down to retest 23 000 or jump up to 30000 first ?? Can clarify  ?thks




Consolidating my notes from MA's blog articles:

So May and July are the next points in TIME - should be opposite events.

Someone here mentioned 6 May week was the highest bar.. is that still the case?

Armstrong has said he doesn't see new highs above that of 2018 until we enter 2020, but we are building a higher base.

He also says we are preparing for a Slingshot move.  23200 looks to be important support.  Only trade using the Weekly Bearish - not on your anticipation.

No rush to jump in until we take out the 4th Weekly Bull and then make new highs above 2018.

Once we break out of the 2018 high, expect to test the 30000 level by 2021 - even 35000 by that time.

This year's WEC will discuss the 'Channel Move' - I guess this is where DOW shoots up to a new base level..
Written 1 Jan 2018 private blog:'This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000.'
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May 02, 2019, 12:16:39 PM
 #5211

What is the forecast for Australia dollars ??
stockpile
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May 02, 2019, 12:35:19 PM
 #5212

bikefront

as of yesterday's close, 5 updated reversals, 2 regular, 2 Maj and one Maj double plus the Maj elected from yesterday.

https://www.screencast.com/t/GB7ckZ8v
trulycoined
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May 02, 2019, 12:52:32 PM
Last edit: May 02, 2019, 01:37:32 PM by trulycoined
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 #5213

I have been digging for more contrarian views of MA and have found some real gold dust. I must admit I still don't know what to make of him and this was really only after attending his WEC 2018 of all things that made me begin questioning his claims, plus "pi day" in November 2018. That was built up to with some fanfare and it passed by like any other normal month.

Digging up MA's EARLIER claims is where it gets interesting. His more recent post-2015 stuff is where it begins to look a bit dodgy. Also, I have been fascinated that he uses his website as a means of controlling your perception of him. No real social media or press presence. That is perhaps something to raise suspicion. In terms of older articles, first this:

https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-think-of-Martin-Armstrong-and-the-documentary-The-Forecaster

Where a well articulated answer that even included scans of reports at the time (2008) correctly called a bottom in the markets - even though it was published AFTER that event and then forecast 2011 would see new lows. That was via his machine/Socrates, not MA's personal opinion. So clearly then, the machine is flawed:



If he was 100% legit, why doesn't he address this or even LOG all predictions/dates in a public file or on his website so they can be scrutinised or he can "defend" them when they don't occur?

Additional opinions here: https://www.realistnews.net/Thread-martin-armstrong-adds-17-years-to-his-doom-prediction-2015-75-to-2032-95

Major calls between 2008-2015, via MA's "model":
▪ Called the DOW to be at 30,000 by 2015. Never happened.
▪ Forecast US property would peak then crash from 2015 onwards. Never happened.
▪ Called another significant date on "pi day" in Nov 2018. Nothing happened.
▪ Never spotted the "sale of a lifetime" in the stock market Mar 2009. Why not?
▪ Forecast May 2019 would see a major economic storm erupt. Pending.
▪ Forecast Jan 2020 would see a global economic crisis emerge. Pending.

Article in De Welt 3 May 2015.
https://www.welt.de/finanzen/article140453591/US-Finanzprophet-Armstrong-sagt-Ende-des-Euro-voraus.html

MA explains:

"Be sure to keep your fingers off government bonds. They are hopelessly overrated. Here it will come to the big crash. My model predicts October 1st."

That never happened. Thus, this argument that the significance of 2015.75 was just that, is clearly MA and his cultish following backtracking. In his own words, his model predicted a "big crash" on that day. It never happened. instead it was explained as a "reversal".

Days later in that same paper (7 may 2015), MA makes ANOTHER prediction:
https://www.welt.de/finanzen/geldanlage/article140550440/Es-wird-zu-einem-grossen-Crash-kommen.html

When asked "What does your model say?" (about the future):

"The big crash is coming. 2017 or 2018"


Erm... That never happened either.

So that is now two occasions where the machine was wrong and also in the space of four days, MA has given three alternative dates to the "big crash" and even worse, has been (without realising?) inconsistent in when the crash is coming. His machine allegedly predicts major events "to the day", so why so ambiguous about this alleged crash?

"2017 or 2018"

I could predict that yet I make no claims to working out the inner workings of the universe nor having an AI supercomputer I've been developing since the 1970s.

Month's later at €2,500 a ticket, this happened:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/berlin-world-economic-conference-nov-28th-29th/

In Martin's own words, I am indeed beginning to connect the dots!...

In another article that same vintage year (2015) for MA:
https://www.lavanguardia.com/lacontra/20150625/54432509475/la-contra-martin-armstrong.html

"In October of this year will begin a debt crisis of governments (historically, none has survived) that will reach the high point in 2017"

The high point never occured since global gov debt has continued rising - currently $244trn.

Machine was wrong again.

Another interesting contrarian read:
https://dev.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/meeting-martin-armstrong/


In this article:
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/is-martin-armstrongs-debt-crisis-upon-us-6299991

MA is quoted as saying:
“The fact that we have the stock markets crashing into the 2015.75 turning point rather than making a major high is indicative of the future we should expect to unfold”

The DOW actually spiked into October, fell by the same amount in Dec that same year and the rest is history. This "crash" and "major high" never happened.

Also, in the book Not My Grandfather's Wall Street published 2015, there is a chapter titled:

Marty Problems

it sheds a little more light on what he was doing at the time (circa 1999). In effect, he is still doing today what he was doing back then, only he wasn't registered with the relevant authorities to give advice on futures to institutional investors. I suppose now his client base is retail, he is free to do what he pleases (different rules & regs) and can still charge high sums for analysis that is no much better than the next guy. His just has a LOT more theatre and storytelling sat behind it.

----

As others have mentioned on here, I wonder if the Socrates/pi model is just as a flawed as any other quant theory at any major financial institution, but it also hides or is linked to incriminating him for any crime he may have committed all those years ago?

Thus to the problem: if the authorities were to get their hands on his "machine", he goes to jail for a long time. If he keeps up this charade that the machine is in fact some major discovery/his IP, and therefore will not forfeit it to the authorities. To maintain this charade, he then pushes out "forecasts" from said machine, and that also explains why post 2015 he has been wrong on so many things.

In his own words, he "does not have much time left on this planet" and is thinking about his "posterity". It isn't too much a stretch to think he is using Socrates to get his "own back" on the state and if that means screwing retail investors out of cash, well so be it.

It is after all classic bait and switch sales tactics that uses the fact, fact, BS trickle of content. This creates a lot of confusion where his fans can continue pointing to all the times he was right or said something logical, but dismiss the BS as a "reversal" or turning point rather than anything significant.

I still think he is interesting for an alternate perspective on socioeconomics.

But I am increasingly sceptical of his machine/Socrates predicting the future. if even Google/FB cannot nail AI with all of their money, resources and connection, I seriously doubt some former convict who has lied about buying office space in St Pete (it was a virtual office) and hasn't coded a decent website has nailed it either.

Additionally, think of all the electric/computing power needed for an AI machine to forecast events decades into the future to an accuracy of on the day. Using his argument of everything is connected and the laws of physics, it doesn't add up. The latter would mean VAST quantities of energy use unless of course, maybe he did have a machine up until he was incarcerated and it no longer exists.

Now all his "forecasts" are made up or from memory, hence why he keeps calling things wrong ever since he was released from prison? That assumes he had such a machine in the first place...
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May 02, 2019, 01:40:10 PM
 #5214

nice analysis trulycoined.

I'm especially annoyed by his constant "economy is falling off a cliff" commentary while numbers say completely the opposite.
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May 02, 2019, 01:41:40 PM
Last edit: May 02, 2019, 02:20:13 PM by trulycoined
 #5215

What is the forecast for Australia dollars ??

At his Olrando WEC 2018 he explained the AU stock market would enter a bullish run 2020-2024 (along with CA) owing to a boom in commodities.

With that, I would expect an increase in AUD since confidence in the economy would increase and globally more would be holding the currency.

However, see my above post about predictions post-2015.

I am waiting for Jan 2020 to come to pass. If nothing happens, I am calling BS on his forecasts and will only read his work for an alternative view on socioeconomics, or may even just dismiss his content altogether and spend more time educating myself through official channels and more "trusted" resources.
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May 02, 2019, 01:55:42 PM
 #5216

nice analysis trulycoined.

I'm especially annoyed by his constant "economy is falling off a cliff" commentary while numbers say completely the opposite.

Yes, I think most telling is that (hilariously written I will add) Quora post that I linked to above.

The scenario that guy explains is what a lot of MA followers can relate to. It is a very confusing world and some guidance is ideal. Saves a lot of time and having a "trusted" sage who is underground is incredibly seductive and appealing.

However, once you peel yourself away from the admiration and hysteria, then dig into when MA has been wrong, suddenly this seductive little world comes crashing down and he appears no more accurate or insightful than any other global markets analyst with 40+ years' experience under their belt.

The fact MA explained Socrates is basically NEVER wrong, otherwise his whole model is undone, and yet claimed in October 2008 that 2011 would see a lower low than 2008, while totally dismissing the buying opportunity of the decade in Mar 2009 - not ignoring the DOW 30,000 prediction for 2015 - more or less kills it for me.

Someone else on this board mentioned the fractions of days in the year e.g. this could be expressed as 365.25 or 365 or otherwise would have to be worked out to an even bigger fraction for greater accuracy, plus pi itself (how many decimals), or the 8.6 cycle etc. That is related to my question to Marty himself: if the machine is based on pooling in vast volumes of data (some 32,000 data points), surely the more data = more accurate predictions. And that is infinite. Thus, the machine must NOT be that accurate as even tens of thousands of data points is barely scratching the surface when you think about every variable in society that could move markets or start/end empires.

If something is out by .25 days, over 43 years (half of 10 cycles of 8.6) that is 10 days - quite a wide margin of error for something that allegedly calls things "to the day". Extrapolate that back 6,000 years and the error of margin increases to over 4 years. That also depends on what your starting point is: the start of the first civilisation, the start of fractional banking, the start of the Great Depression...
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May 02, 2019, 08:43:51 PM
 #5217

Stockpile, thanks. We'll see if the market rises in the next couple of days.

Modified my strategy a bit. I've noticed that even if the market exceeds the point I enter for a reversal, it eventually returns the same day to that point almost all the time.  The problem is the drawdown, as it returns even after a large move. Therefore, proper sizing is required. Additionally, theta loss in waiting for price to return can be sizeable, so something more than 2 DTE is not a good idea; it stops one from 'getting my money back.' Technically structuring trades so losers break even while winners are jackpots help in greater overall returns. And actually making a loss once in a while should not hurt. Another thing is to remove alerts for breakouts, as those are meant only to be bought on retreats. These ambiguous trades are to be removed from the alerts and perhaps lines can be color coded OR alerts can be reviewed each night for those setups.

Coined, I wonder if there is a study showing the trades on Reversals. They are not ambiguous, and are actual buy/sell signals. I'd like to see if there are any other critiques on that- I've read a few on here but no one claimed they didn't actually work, as far as I know.
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May 02, 2019, 10:43:42 PM
 #5218


Slingshot move in 2019 or 2020 ??
Will stock goes down to retest 23 000 or jump up to 30000 first ?? Can clarify  ?thks




Consolidating my notes from MA's blog articles:

So May and July are the next points in TIME - should be opposite events.

Someone here mentioned 6 May week was the highest bar.. is that still the case?

Armstrong has said he doesn't see new highs above that of 2018 until we enter 2020, but we are building a higher base.

He also says we are preparing for a Slingshot move.  23200 looks to be important support.  Only trade using the Weekly Bearish - not on your anticipation.

No rush to jump in until we take out the 4th Weekly Bull and then make new highs above 2018.

Once we break out of the 2018 high, expect to test the 30000 level by 2021 - even 35000 by that time.

This year's WEC will discuss the 'Channel Move' - I guess this is where DOW shoots up to a new base level..
Written 1 Jan 2018 private blog:'This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000.'

GMW showing Quarterly yellow (potential high/low) with significant emboldened text POSSIBLE IMPORTANT LOW.  So in my guesstimate i don't think the Slingshot will go below that number 21712.53.
What does the GMW say for MONTH Dec 2018?  Should be YELLOW with significant text relating to an IMPORTANT LOW too.
I think Slingshot prior to the jump up to a new level because he's been talking about the possible upcoming Channel Move - but I am guessing. Play it by the numbers and interlace with time.  That's because forecasts that 'never happened', failed with time and the forecast is moved onto the next cycle in time.
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May 02, 2019, 10:53:21 PM
 #5219

bike front

The dow did run back to the reversal this morning  surpassed it by 10 ticks went sideways for 30 min then sold off remainder of the day.
 35 tick stop above elected reversal of 2644.52 returned 7:1 risk /reward, covering the trade around noon-approx 255 points
Dow elected another daily R today, curious to see if we get follow through tomorrow
kinda impressed or just a fluke

https://www.screencast.com/t/JxJgGEDP5dX
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May 02, 2019, 11:11:28 PM
 #5220

nice analysis trulycoined.

I'm especially annoyed by his constant "economy is falling off a cliff" commentary while numbers say completely the opposite.

Yes, I think most telling is that (hilariously written I will add) Quora post that I linked to above.

The scenario that guy explains is what a lot of MA followers can relate to. It is a very confusing world and some guidance is ideal. Saves a lot of time and having a "trusted" sage who is underground is incredibly seductive and appealing.

However, once you peel yourself away from the admiration and hysteria, then dig into when MA has been wrong, suddenly this seductive little world comes crashing down and he appears no more accurate or insightful than any other global markets analyst with 40+ years' experience under their belt.

The fact MA explained Socrates is basically NEVER wrong, otherwise his whole model is undone, and yet claimed in October 2008 that 2011 would see a lower low than 2008, while totally dismissing the buying opportunity of the decade in Mar 2009 - not ignoring the DOW 30,000 prediction for 2015 - more or less kills it for me.

Someone else on this board mentioned the fractions of days in the year e.g. this could be expressed as 365.25 or 365 or otherwise would have to be worked out to an even bigger fraction for greater accuracy, plus pi itself (how many decimals), or the 8.6 cycle etc. That is related to my question to Marty himself: if the machine is based on pooling in vast volumes of data (some 32,000 data points), surely the more data = more accurate predictions. And that is infinite. Thus, the machine must NOT be that accurate as even tens of thousands of data points is barely scratching the surface when you think about every variable in society that could move markets or start/end empires.

If something is out by .25 days, over 43 years (half of 10 cycles of 8.6) that is 10 days - quite a wide margin of error for something that allegedly calls things "to the day". Extrapolate that back 6,000 years and the error of margin increases to over 4 years. That also depends on what your starting point is: the start of the first civilisation, the start of fractional banking, the start of the Great Depression...


Marty from January 9th  Cheesy Cheesy Grin

Quote
The Dow Bounce into Early 2019
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, January 9, 2019

We can see that after we achieved the low on the 26th, the next week was the Directional Change and that should have given us a bounce, but not a change in trend, The next Directional Change was due the week if 01/21 so consolidation until then is possible. We have another Panic Cycle the week of 01/28.

The top line has now moved to agree with the Directional Change the week of 01/21. The volatility models are also picking up now for the week of 01/28 and this is followed by back-to-back Directional Changes in early Feb. Keep in mind that the major thrust in a correction is ALWAYS in the initial stage. Therefore, which we can still see a lower low, it is unlikely to be a major thrust down a second time.

The bounce after the first 1929 Panic low lasted 22 weeks. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stood at 329 but the rally only reached 29720. However, the Breakline was retested and exceeded slightly intraday but not on a closing basis.

Here the Breakline from the first high in 2018 rested at 22430.17. The market penetrated it intraday but could not close below it. This technical pattern also tends to confirm we do not have a major change in trend for here the market is testing the Breakline from above compared to below in a bounce following the 1929 Crash. Here the first Weekly Bullish stands at 25005.

January was also a Directional Change on the monthly level also confirming a bounce with the next two targets being March and May. We still could make a January low later in the month and then rally into March. So look at the week of 01/28.  If the market continues to consolidate into March, then this type or pattern would imply perhaps the final low in May with the reversal in trend at that time. This would also line up with the EU election cycle. The low on the 26th was 21712 and our primary target remains 21600, which is the Monthly Bearish we stated we should test at the WEC. Therefore, a rally even up to 25000 which fails to elect any Weekly Bullish, could still be followed by a lower low, but one that then holds the 21600 level on a closing basis.

Don't for get we have BREXIT in March and the the EU elections in May. The model is picking up both periods suggesting they may indeed be influential.

Martin Armstrong: wrong, wrong, wrong, very tendentious statements all the time. Misses the big move (december 2018) once again. Has an complete obsession about the (utterly boring) EU-elections coming up.

Hello Marty, we already have populist governments in Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, etc. The market already freaking knows that. Is it news that anti-EU parties are going to win a larger share? What a thing that his computer seems to sniff those things out. Of course, May could be a corrective month, but an economic and financial meltdown...
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