Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[grod]

Is this a reasonable short term wave interpretation?

Code:

Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday
($5.0)
             ($4.5)

                  i      ($4.2)
     I     II           ii                 III
                   ($4.0)     iii    ($4.0)
                                    iv             
       ($3.8)                  ($3.8)      v           (<$3.8)
                                                a b c IV     i-v V
                                           ($3.?)                (<$3.?)
Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday

or

Mmmyeah, I'd say you've got the cunt on that chart pretty much nailed.

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[iopq]

why do I even read this anymore? you're just always optimistic, with resistances everywhere, but the price keeps dropping slowly

[S3052]

Is this a reasonable short term wave interpretation?

Code:

Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday
[/quote]

[color=blue]It is a possibility, while I have a couple of alternative counts. I will send them to you tomorrow by mail[/color]

[panerai]

Is this a reasonable short term wave interpretation?

Code:

Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday
[/quote]

[color=blue]It is a possibility, while I have a couple of alternative counts. I will send them to you tomorrow by mail[/color]

Your predictions are not panning out huh? I enjoy your commentary, but now it appears it's really just for entertainment purposes. No money to be made here with your analysis. Not trying to be negative, just saying...

[bulanula]

why do I even read this anymore? you're just always optimistic, with resistances everywhere, but the price keeps dropping slowly

LOL at least someone gets it around here !

[fivebells]

S dropped the "o" from "counts" once, and it came out funny-sounding.

[netrin]

why do I even read this anymore? you're just always optimistic, with resistances everywhere, but the price keeps dropping slowly

LOL at least someone gets it around here !

critical runts who ridicule cunts

Choose your scale, http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/ has been pretty damn accurate for several months.

[iopq]

why do I even read this anymore? you're just always optimistic, with resistances everywhere, but the price keeps dropping slowly

LOL at least someone gets it around here !

critical runts who ridicule cunts

Choose your scale, http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/ has been pretty damn accurate for several months.

it also said long term up when it was $14, long term up when it was $11, long term up all the time

how long is long term? if it drops to $1 and then goes back up to $4 in two years, the guy will come back and say SEE? IT'S UP LONG TERM

if it never goes up he will just say it's not long term yet, wait longer
it's impossible to prove it wrong, but the only good post is when he said $26 was too high, and to sell
that's the last time when following his advice on short term was good

[osmosis]

why do I even read this anymore? you're just always optimistic, with resistances everywhere, but the price keeps dropping slowly

LOL at least someone gets it around here !

critical runts who ridicule cunts

Choose your scale, http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/ has been pretty damn accurate for several months.

it also said long term up when it was $14, long term up when it was $11, long term up all the time

how long is long term? if it drops to $1 and then goes back up to $4 in two years, the guy will come back and say SEE? IT'S UP LONG TERM

if it never goes up he will just say it's not long term yet, wait longer
it's impossible to prove it wrong, but the only good post is when he said $26 was too high, and to sell
that's the last time when following his advice on short term was good

You have to read between the lines. It means, next round of suckers, next round of suckers, next round of suckers. Line em' up! my fav was ... "oh, btw..im in an all cash position now."
School of hard knocks.
You know what?! F this. Im done, deleting my wallet! This is crap. I'm over it! This is bollsheit. Its over. Its done.
kidding

The analysis actually seems pretty good. Its mostly the scams that keep changing the trend.

[netrin]

how long is long term? if it drops to $1 and then goes back up to $4 in two years, the guy will come back and say SEE? IT'S UP LONG TERM

If you didn't know what long term meant, then ask. It's a year. Mid term months/weeks. Short days/hour. Any idiot can see the price has been dropping for four months just as he can see it's way up over the year.

[S3052]

Is this a reasonable short term wave interpretation?

Code:

Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday
($5.0)
             ($4.5)

                  i      ($4.2)
     I     II           ii                 III
                   ($4.0)     iii    ($4.0)
                                    iv             
       ($3.8)                  ($3.8)      v           (<$3.8)
                                                a b c IV     i-v V
                                           ($3.?)                (<$3.?)
Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday

or

Just sent two alternate wave counts. Let me know if you have not received it.

[panerai]

The analysis actually seems pretty good. Its mostly the scams that keep changing the trend.

Worth the money he's asking? I'm debating it...

[netrin]

Worth the money he's asking? I'm debating it...

It's possible to calculate this if you've kept record of your own performance. Choose a time scale (long, mid, short), consult public postings since you got into bitcoin and consistently follow the suggestions (hypothetically buy or sell 50% at the price 12 hours after the public post timestamp), trigger stop losses when necessary. Then compare your actual performance with this hypothetical history minus fees.

[S3052]

We are at a very important juncture on BTCUSD.

Here is an excerpt of the special update in the subscriber section: Prices are right where the longterm uptrend lines run. The view on the longterm chart, shows that we are likely at a buying opportunity of a "bitcoin lifetime". Very likely (80%), this trendline will at least spark a strong countertrend rally from approximately current levels. But as this trendline is important and prices are more in a consolidation than in a "bubble" state, there is a high probability that BTCUSD starts a rally to new all time highs. When looking at the very short term, we have been analysing two extreme scenarios: Either prices rally from here around 4 $. Or, BTCUSD will do one final dip below 3.79 $ before the reversal starts.

Only a strong, sustained move below the long term trendline will result into a much deeper correction. Still, we do not see this as the more likely option and remain long term bullish.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html

[zby]

The lines are again a little bit lower.  I have also seen 2.8 as the long term trend line border - so I guess you still have lot's of space for these adjustments.

[nmat]

We are at a very important juncture on BTCUSD.

Here is an excerpt of the special update in the subscriber section: Prices are right where the longterm uptrend lines run. The view on the longterm chart, shows that we are likely at a buying opportunity of a "bitcoin lifetime". Very likely (80%), this trendline will at least spark a strong countertrend rally from approximately current levels. But as this trendline is important and prices are more in a consolidation than in a "bubble" state, there is a high probability that BTCUSD starts a rally to new all time highs. When looking at the very short term, we have been analysing two extreme scenarios: Either prices rally from here around 4 $. Or, BTCUSD will do one final dip below 3.79 $ before the reversal starts.

Only a strong, sustained move below the long term trendline will result into a much deeper correction. Still, we do not see this as the more likely option and remain long term bullish.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html

I have been following your analyses and I really enjoy them. Thank for doing it. But honestly, you need to think "outside the chart". Bitcoins are not like the regular stock/forex market. The $30 high was caused solely by news sites and people's curiosity. Using that peak to constantly claim a rally to a new all time high is short sighted. It's simply not going to happen without another major breakthrough in the bitcoin world (something like Amazon accepts bitcoin) because there isn't enough market capital to buy coins all the way up to $30.

The volume in currency clearly shows that in June we had a lot of people trading, but they are gone now:



The prices might go up, but they aren't going anywhere near $30 anytime soon.

PS: It's simple math: the number of coins is increasing rapidly and the number of new investors is decreasing slowly.

[netrin]

The number of bitcoins remained relatively fixed. Obviously the number of dollars was almost ten times greater when the price was ten times greater. You would therefor expect to see ten times more volume in dollar currency. But I think it is more relevant to look at the number of trades in bitcoin, rather than the number of dollars traded.

[fivebells]

More $ chasing fewer btc ==> higher btc/$ rate.  It's a simple supply & demand relationship which an honest prognostication on the exchange rate won't ignore.

The salient problem with nmat's reasoning is his belief that S has based his predictions on technical features of the Summer bubble.  Actually S is working from two earlier price-reversal time points, which he draws a line through on the graph.  He says that line represents an important price threshold, but provides no rational basis for this belief.

Technical analysis is just barely mathematically elaborate enough to be intellectually intimidating to most people, and set the chart reader up as someone with arcane skills.  But there doesn't seem to be any empirical evidence for its predictive power.

[zby]

It just needs to be suggestive.  It fails on me - because of the inconsistencies - if the line is drawn once in one way next week in another way - it loses credibility.  The question is if I am a common case - maybe not.

[Xenland]

Honestly I've been following the public pricing and I think S3052 is doing a good job on accurateness. He/she may or may not be using a certain style to tell the community how things will be I can tell that S3052 is trying his best to stay neutral with that analysis but at the same time trying to add a little bit of hope to it.

I agree with nmat to a point but I disagree with him where as I've also noticed that most trading around here follows social trends then they do the actual Bitcoin value and I've noticed that S3052 has been accurately following these trends as well so for nmat to say that he is strictly following Mtgox/Tradehill/campbx/bitcoin7 data is far from the truth from my personal experiences.