Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[kiba]

We need people who spend in BTC. People who trade back play a zero-sum game, or worse. The only advantage they give to the system is hopefully backing the currency until more trade within the BitCoin network happens. Now if they'd intend to spend the money as BTC, even if a little later, we face a healthy flow of BTC as soon as they do. This brings a kind of small inflation that encourages BTC traders. This is good inflation, it brings trade volume within the network. A great outcome compared to people just selling back, which could starve trade volume on all ends, and we might face again what we saw yesterday.

Jesus! You need some patience.

[Vandroiy]

Jesus! You need some patience.

Chill out~

I'm perfectly calm and didn't say anything big has to happen within the next two years or something. I just want to make people aware of the difference between price and market volume, and how loosely these can be linked at times.

[kiba]

Chill out~

I'm perfectly calm and didn't say anything big has to happen within the next two years or something. I just want to make people aware of the difference between price and market volume, and how loosely these can be linked at times.

Captain obvious preaching to the chorus.

[Vandroiy]

Okay, okay, you're right, I'm shutting up. Everybody should know that, it should be needless to say.

We shouldn't be hijacking the Technical Analysis thread for this anyways.

[LZ]

I just wanted to say that massive bitcoin selling is not cool. I know
that it will be much more than $10, you know that too. Why panic?

[bitcool]

Not trying to offend anyone, but after following Elliott Wave theory for a few years and seeing how miserable Bob Prechter's track record has become, I don't have much faith left in so called technical analysis at all. I am a fundamentalist now.

[S3052]

Interested, I fared very well over with Elliottwave over the past 9 years.

I'd be interested to learn what your experience is (feel free to share here or via PM).

[slush]

Elliott Wave theory ... don't have much faith left in so called technical analysis at all.

isn't the only one TA tool on the planet. I personally think that EW is pretty complicated nonsense. I talked few guys trading EW and they didn't agree on many non-obvious patterns. I mean - it's such complicated that everybody see the waves which he want to see.

I m a fundamentalist now.

Me too. That's the reason why I'm trading simple price action patterns . Usually the _real_ fundaments are traded by somebody before we get the information for ourselves (except we're the insiders). So I believe that price chart already contains everything needed to trade...

[S3052]

slush and bitcool,

we agree 99%, I am using simple price action patterns and simple indicators for most of my analysis and trading.

I also think that finding the right trade entries is simpler than most people think. Much more difficult is the money management. This is why 1 out of 1000 traders make consistently money over years. This is why most of the rest do well over weeks, months, maybe a couple of years, but then lose everything.

While the above mentioned indicators make up for most of my trading decisions, I enhance this with elliott wave sometimes because is has one benefit that many other dont have: it is forward looking. my biggest and best trades were countering the main trend, where most other indicators did not indicate the trend change.
i.e. I bought European stocks on March 12, 2003 (the day of the low), I shorted the stock market on Nov 26, 2007 (just 2-3 days before the top), due to Elliott wave AND ALSO the other indicators.

[S3052]

Short term update:

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/04/bitcoin-market-analysis-short-term-update-april-6th-2011-by-s3052/

[bitcool]

Interested, I fared very well over with Elliottwave over the past 9 years.

I'd be interested to learn what your experience is (feel free to share here or via PM).

This guy (au_ag_u) pretty much said what I have observed:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_I/threadview?bn=29797&tid=127988&mid=128107

[bitcool]

Usually the _real_ fundaments are traded by somebody before we get the information for ourselves (except we're the insiders). So I believe that price chart already contains everything needed to trade...

True, but there are exceptions, such as thinly traded market, highly manipulated market.

I've seen many times that certain price actions moved exactly the way that max number of stops get triggered. Be it hedgies or whatever invisible hands, they do pretty good jobs.

[bitcool]

I also think that finding the right trade entries is simpler than most people think. Much more difficult is the money management.

It is a very true statement. Also finding bottoms is usually much easier than finding tops.

i.e. I bought European stocks on March 12, 2003 (the day of the low), I shorted the stock market on Nov 26, 2007 (just 2-3 days before the top), due to Elliott wave AND ALSO the other indicators.

That's quite remarkable.

[S3052]

I also think that finding the right trade entries is simpler than most people think. Much more difficult is the money management.

It is a very true statement. Also finding bottoms is usually much easier than finding tops.

i.e. I bought European stocks on March 12, 2003 (the day of the low), I shorted the stock market on Nov 26, 2007 (just 2-3 days before the top), due to Elliott wave AND ALSO the other indicators.

That's quite remarkable.

Thanks...

Now we are really getting close to another big top in the stock market.

My projection is that we are maximum 4% away from the final top in the DJI, SP500, NASDAQ.

Targets, i.e. on the DJI below 1000 over the next 2-5 years.

[wobber]

What about gold and silver? Silver is now almos $40 per ounce. Do you think this is a top?

[S3052]

Silver will soon make a top. But due its exponential rise that started in January, we are now in a "blow off" top formation. Those blow off tops overshoot very often. This means it can go up to 50 $ or it can mean that last nights high is already the top.

It could be prudent to wait for a short entry until 36.40-36.50 is broken to the downside which could be a first sign that a top is in place. If a top is in, we probably see the steepest decline of silver in decades.

Gold is in a similar position and will need to break below the March low to confirm a top.

[bitcool]

http://www.dailywealth.com/
Being a fundamentalist and seeing negative interest rate as far as my eyesight can reach, I see no reason for gold silver making tops.
Since silver broke out the $20~22 range, I've seen way too many top callers than I can remember.

 

[S3052]

BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

[nster]

BTC/USD short term trend change: DOWN after reaching 0.8 and breaking below 0.75. 0.50, better 0.56 $ must hold to keep longterm rally.

I think it will stay sideways and keep around 0.70$. This is only based on opinion though 

[brocktice]

Targets, i.e. on the DJI below 1000 over the next 2-5 years.

DJIA below 1000 over the next 2-5 years? Really? You don't mean 10000?