Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

Only a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead. Strong fund inflows are needed for that, which is always possible, given the huge awareness increase on bitcoins (as highlighted in other threads)

Your S3052

[S3052]

Vladimir, thanks for the question.

Basically, a multitude of key technical indicators and tools point downwards (If I like this forecast or not, but it is my job to stick to the facts).

To illustrate it better, I share another chart with more in depth analysis and some explaination.

1. A new downtrend is established (lower highs) from the 1.1$ high (see upper green line)
2. Volume trend is down: rises are accompanied with lower volume than declines
3. MACD indicator is in bearish territory: blue line below pink line. As long as blue line does not cross pink line, we are in a downtrend.
4. RSI is pointing downwards and has more room to sink before it gets oversold. When it hits 30, we may see a trend change.
5. Uptrend line through the 0.3 - 0.4 -0.8 zones has been (slightly) broken to the downside: see second, lower green trendline.

Net, not a lot to turn bullish now.
Very longterm, the uptrend is intact as long as we remain above 0.5 $.

Hope this explains better.

[S3052]

Thanks a lot+


Emotionally, I wish bitcoins a huge success and further rising value... (but this is not about my emotions)

Technically, it takes a rise above 1.0 $ ,and better 1.1 $ to continue and even  accelerate the rally.

[slush]

1. A new downtrend is established (lower highs) from the 1.1$ high (see upper green line)

I don't see any down trend, the market is just undecided after huge jump to parity, moving in 0.9-1.0 range, without significant overlap of any trendline which you (correctly) identified.

2. Volume trend is down: rises are accompanied with lower volume than declines

Better explanation - such big volume almost does not move the market. There was big support on 0.9 which absorbed whole sell entry. You can compare today's situation with the large sells few days ago. +50% volume moved market in many times bigger fashion.

3. MACD indicator is in bearish territory: blue line below pink line. As long as blue line does not cross pink line, we are in a downtrend.

MACD is just a dumb technical indicator based on moving averages and it is just saying again "we are in the correction" by another words. I don't have enough courage to say "market is bearish" based on crossing MACD lines .

4. RSI is pointing downwards and has more room to sink before it gets oversold. When it hits 30, we may see a trend change.

RSI is fine indicator, but mainly works on markets moving in the range. In trending market, which Bitcoin surely is (except long sideway move in December), RSI will show only irrelevant mess. You can see that RSI is on the same level as for whole November and December...

Finally, I think that we cannot predict anything in current situation for now, because the technical analysis says that both sides are possible. Saying "It will go down and if not, it will go up" is useless. The better way is to say "I don't have an idea, because market looks undecided right now".

[S3052]

The terminology:

"There is a strong likelyhood that we see another leg down toward 0.8 , or even 0.5 eventually." means that my forecast is BEARISH. PRICES are expected to go down to at least 0.8 $, based on my analysis.

There is no ambiguity. Not everyone has to agree to that.

I will be wrong if prices break 1 $ or 1.1 $. (Giving alternative scenarios at lower probabilities is also important in forecasting and technical analysis. It does not mean I am undecided).

[S3052]

The TREND is DOWN for BTC/USD towards 0.8$, and potentially deeper. (no change vs. last updates, the forecast is on track)


Only a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead.


Your S3052

[S3052]

And again, it is Monday and I have reset the market sentiment poll.


Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?

click on the poll above

Please VOTE

[S3052]

Last update said: "The TREND is DOWN for BTC/USD towards 0.8$, and potentially deeper. (no change vs. last updates, the forecast is on track)"

Prices indeed continued down and went down to 0.85 $. However, BTC/USD did not go down as deep as 0.8 $.

Afterwards, prices caught a bid by one big 16k $ order and is now close to the upper trendline.
If this trend (0.975 $) broken, a rise to 1.0 $ is likely.

As said before, a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead.



Next Full Update Wednesday, March 3rd.



Your S3052

[S3052]

Analysis

1. Longterm outlook:

BTC/USD continues to be BULLISH longterm, as long as the 0.4-0.5 $  area holds (strong longterm horizontal and trendline resistance).




2. Short term update

The most probable scenario is a break above 0.95 $ as the kick off to a further BTC/USD rally.

Short term, we see the following key levels:

a) Resistance:

* 0.95 $: Downsloping trendline from the 1.1 $ all-time-high.

* 1.0 $: Round number resistance

* 1.1 $: All time high

b) Support

*0.8 $: Strong support: 1) lower Bollinger band, 2) horizontal support.



Next update: Friday, 4th.

Your S3052

[S3052]

Hi Everyone,

not a lot of trading going on,  no changes to the outlook.

Your S3052

[S3052]

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4453162#post4453162

[S3052]

Hi Everyone,

and especially hi and thanks to all who have been donating!

Over the past 2-3 weeks, donations have declined from a good level to almost 0. I still want to continue the BTC analysis, but need to move to a less frequent update (2x per week), as otherwise I can't support it any more.

I will see how it develops and depending on feedback, keep 2x / week or ultimately move to a different system.

Your S3052

[S3052]

As promised here is tonight's bitcoin technical update. As some of you might have realized, I have moved to a Monday & Thursday rhythm for the technical analysis. In case the market starts again to be more dynamic and I get some of your support via donations, I might move to a shorter rhythm again.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4462083#post4462083

[S3052]

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4465929#post4465929

[S3052]

Just realized we crossed the 10,000 viewer mark of this Bitcoin Technical Analysis thread.

Thanks to all of you for reading. I will be trying to keep it useful for you.

[S3052]

1

[S3052]

A rare fundamental addition from my p.o.v: The bitcoin economy needs new investors to support the next rally. Otherwise, there is a risk for negative investment sentiment which could harm the overall bitcoin economy. We already see less mining and investor interest.


As promised here is tonight's bitcoin technical update. As some of you might have realized, I have moved to a Monday & Thursday rhythm for the technical analysis. In case the market starts again to be more dynamic and I get some of your support via donations, I might move to a shorter rhythm again.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4470542#post4470542

I post updates in the forexfactory to keep interest up and as the mtgox blog is not active any more since ownership changed.

[S3052]

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4480537#post4480537

[LZ]

[S3052]

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4487523#post4487523