Bitmain wiped out Neptune. They probably didn't need to keep lowering their prices, but they did, until their price matched exactly Neptune per GH
(N.B. Do the math - their current price of 0.988BTC matches exactly)
Shipping from stock, they have destroyed BFL/KNC's cosy pre-order business.
I predict Bitmain (or some other Chinese company using the Bitmain business model) will flood the market with ~10MH litecoin rigs as soon as it's feasible.
I disagree that it completely wiped out the Neptune. I'm glad there is more competition out there to make the market more competitive, it ultimately drives companies to deliver more.
Here's a calculator I utilized to cross reference 3 Bitmain miners to the Neptune batches.
This assumes the following variables:
625 USD/BTC
15% increased difficulty per jump, decreasing by 3% every jump
1% BTC/USD increase per jump.
Advertised hash rates.
32 jump calculations.
On the Neptune batches, an additional 500$ is added to reflect PSUs.
Bitmain S2 (Second Batch) begins hashing 4/12
KnC CA batch delivers hashpower/miner 4/12, and every additional batch 3 jumps later.
Public Batch hashing 5/18
Second Public Patch Hashing 6/23
Bitmain S2 3xNeptune CANeptune Public Batch 1Neptune Public Batch 2Conclusion on the above:
The CA batch will outperform the Bitmains due to power consumption.
Neptune Public batches fall short on expectations. It would be more better off to buy and hold BTC or go with Bitmain (which is sold out already)
Additional Consideration:
The warranty period on the Neptunes is a full year. This beats Bitmain's 90 days on the S2 *(I can't see warranty information for either the S2 or Neptune, I am assuming they will match their previous products)
In the long run, at today's prices, the Neptunes will be unprofitable at around 123B difficulty. The Bitmains will be unprofitable around 93B.
The unknown:
We're not exactly sure when KnC will deliver their hashpower. 11% power reduction has been announced, but nothing set in stone about how much it would push out. I personally think it will be at least a 4 TH unit, with consumption around 2500 watts, in which case the first Public batch would be better than Bitmain, but the third batch will still be lagging behind.
Obviously, the market can crash, to earth or the moon.
Final thoughts:
The CA batch should be a great investment. I'm holding my orders. My advice to the consumers of public batches is to hold on and wait for more information on the Neptune along with paying close attention to the market. Do your due diligence.
This next month will be a damn fun ride, that's for sure. Happy mining everyone!
