Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Those are the good posts, jbreher. 

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[AlexGR]

Segwit, LN, Big Blocks, Satoshi vision, Blockstream, Core, and much more:

https://github.com/bitcoin-dot-org/bitcoin.org/pull/2010

Meanwhile, plenty of exchanges aren't even batching txs, spending blockchain space inefficiently... It's like every withdrawal request is input, the client's output and change back to the exchange for the next withdrawal from that address.

[jbreher]

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.

I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.

My (perhaps flawed) understanding is that in the current implementation, all nodes broadcast all channel state changes to all other nodes. This is necessary, of course, as nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous path route discovery.

For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).

I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.

[jbreher]

segwit adaption is increasing.

How are you measuring that?

at least the bitcoin market dominance is increasing right now.

At least there's that.

Oh. 34.9%? Is that good?

[cAPSLOCK]

On a tangentially-related matter, does anyone know why the forums got rid of the glowing ignore color, based on how many people have a particular user marked for ignore ?

Oooh.  I had never noticed this but would enjoy it.

Disappeared around the end of 2013, IIRC, about the same time avatars were locked (for years).  Avatars became changeable again within a couple years, but the forum just couldn't afford the expense of glowing ignore buttons.  There's the new software to develop, you know!  Can't be robbing from that for trivial things.

Pretty sure Bob was wanting to ignore me for all my various Monero shilling.  Maybe I could just change my avatar to a glowing ignore button?

[jojo69]

Those are the good posts, jbreher. 

there is a reason he isn't on ignore

that and the politeness

[jbreher]

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

[Typex]

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

It must be on the companies time.  I doubt they could forbid a perfectly legal activity done outside the companies time.

[jbreher]

Along these lines, I'm looking to build myself a "proper" server to run Bitcoind and LND. Ideally RAID 10 for the boot volume, and RAID 10 for the blockchain/LND volume.

Figure software RAID under Ubuntu is good enough (?)

Disk bandwidth will be pretty low. SW RAID is fine. mdadm is your friend.

[HairyMaclairy]

Does RSK support tokens like ERC20? 

[Arriemoller]

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

I want to know that too. If someone could post the original article in full (it's behind a paywall) I will read, translate, and give a TLDR.

[jbreher]

I think it’s the requirement for an “always online” connnection. Just easier with cloud.  

Don’t ask me to explain what happens if your node goes offline.  I don’t know.

It enables each of your channel counterparts to broadcast transactions stealing the value you have locked up in that channel, for one. Amongst other ills.

And gives said counterpart the chance to have their whole assets on that channel forfeited by you if anyone snitches on them within a week. I wouldn't try that.

Comprehensive list of entities currently operating such a service:
1) 

By the way, the phrase you wrote and I underlined could be read as meaning that there are several counterparts per channel. There are only two actors for each channel: yourself and the other end (counterpart).

Yes, bit if you have more than one channel, each with one counterparty, you have in total more than one counterparty. That's all I was trying to convey there.

[pera]

I wonder what explains the difference between these two trends during the last couple of months.

uhhhh

nineteen THOUSAND fucking dollars?

No, actually what I meant was the difference between the trends for the terms "bitcoin" and "cryptocurrency": as you can see in the last month "bitcoin" almost halved, but "cryptocurrency" recovered the same level of searches after a dip. It seems that the interest in altcoins is now less tied to Bitcoin, yet in the market prices still follow Bitcoin.

[jbreher]

Those are the good posts, jbreher. 

there is a reason he isn't on ignore

that and the politeness

Thanks. I try not to inject negativity.

[jbreher]

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

It must be on the companies time.  I doubt they could forbid a perfectly legal activity done outside the companies time.

That's what I think too. Than again, I'm 'merkin. From my vantage point, eurozone is ever-so-slightly leading us into full-on batshit-crazy socialism. So, dunno.

[Karartma1]

I miss Carolina, gentlemen, moon and Choo choos.

Carolina loves you. She loves gentlemen that travel by train.

The price doesn't move based on good or bad news, it moves based on charts which reflect how investors invest based on the direction of the price.

All of those n00bs that bought in thinking they would make 10x their money are now getting out because they didn't realize the price could go down. rekt!

Fixed that for you.
And it's good they are getting rekt. We need strong hands (hodlers)

This is going to be the Bitcoin chart. You heard it from me first.

Quoting again for reference. It's astonishingly similar to BRK.A
Wait for us WB

[Rsiyz]

Olive Branch   

[OWZ1337]

Those are the good posts, jbreher. 

there is a reason he isn't on ignore

that and the politeness

Thanks. I try not to inject negativity.

wheres your "crypto-god" ceo now?   weee

[d_eddie]

These are the bad posts, jbreher.  

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.

I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.

I will post some data, but don't hold your breath. I'll need some free time to install the thing - starting with Docker - and some more to figure out how to measure LN's bandwitdh tax unbundled from bitcoind's base requirements. Got any suggestions?

Now we get to the "bad boy" part.

My (perhaps flawed) understanding is that in the current implementation, all nodes broadcast all channel state changes to all other nodes. This is necessary, of course, as nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous path route discovery.

That's incorrect. Nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous OPTIMAL path route discovery. Heuristic methods with stored forward tables do work reasonably well. Several mesh-like networks work, without a single tear about being suboptimal.

EDIT: not sure, but optimality (or substantial improvements on route length) could be achieved by permissioning just the network-shaping, route discovery functions. Permissions could be earned by showing reliability and revoked for rogue nodes that systematically misreport.

For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).

I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.

Of course - the clueless developers! D'oh, what an unforgivable oversight! The system they implemented is doomed. They chose the SAN (Spam All Network) algorithm for both route discovery and node state update. They slept during their networking lessons, or was it calculus? So they failed to notice that bandwidth grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This way, it's almost as bad as if one increased the block size. But who would ever think of that?

Out of sarcasm: I'll never believe the protocol broadcasts data mindlessly. On TOR transport, link capacity is precious and doesn't get flooded with irrelevant data. I've never studied the matter in detail, but as an informed guess, I'd go for something like neighborhood broadcasting with empirical discovery of TTL (max distance for broadcasting, initially conservatively low). Once you've found a route that works, you keep it until it stops working - or TOR signals it's time to change circuit. Randomized timing etc. are all nice options to obfuscate things a little more and make network analysis harder.

[J. Cooper]

I'm also curious where BTC will be at the end of 2018?

As are we all.

Somebody did a monte carlo simulation based upon a random sampling of daily returns. The center of the probability distribution function was $55.5K.

$55,530 center of distribution
Probability of less than $13K - 9.84%
80% confidence interval: $13,200.00-$271,277.00

You can quibble with the validity of past returns used as a basis for future predictions, but its one analysis.

https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

That's a pretty solid analysis (bookmarked), $55K is a very realistic prediction. I would only assume that at the end of 2018 $55K wouldn't have been to all time high but still a very good price estimation. At the end of the day it's still educated guessing but it was refreshing to see a HQ price analysis based on raw math.