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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.8%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.2%)
H1 2020 - 28 (19%)
H2 2020 - 26 (17.7%)
H1 2021 - 12 (8.2%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.1%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.7%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (2%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.2%)
Total Voters: 147

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21288424 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
d_eddie
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January 22, 2018, 06:45:35 PM

I think it’s the requirement for an “always online” connnection. Just easier with cloud.  

Don’t ask me to explain what happens if your node goes offline.  I don’t know.

It enables each of your channel counterparts to broadcast transactions stealing the value you have locked up in that channel, for one. Amongst other ills.
And gives said counterpart the chance to have their whole assets on that channel forfeited by you if anyone snitches on them within a week. I wouldn't try that.

By the way, the phrase you wrote and I underlined could be read as meaning that there are several counterparts per channel. There are only two actors for each channel: yourself and the other end (counterpart).
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AlexGR
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January 22, 2018, 06:46:49 PM
Last edit: January 22, 2018, 08:47:33 PM by AlexGR

Do you think it can be done? Any caveats, gotchas, likely pitfalls etc?

Along these lines, I'm looking to build myself a "proper" server to run Bitcoind and LND. Ideally RAID 10 for the boot volume, and RAID 10 for the blockchain/LND volume.

Figure software RAID under Ubuntu is good enough (?)

Can anyone recommend a decent i7 or Xeon based system, smallest form-factor possible, capable of housing at least 4 x 3.5" drives ?

Amazon and NewEgg are kinda a crapshoot... Maybe I should post this in another thread...

A i3/i5/i7 and a good SSD with a big write durability is fine.

These CPUs have higher clocks than xeon (some tasks in bitcoin perform better with higher clock speeds because they are single-threaded, and you see that during rescanning/reindexing) and they're also cheaper.

I also propose SSD because HDDs* are way too slow for constant accessing throughout a 200gb database. It's not their MB/sec that are lagging, but their access times - which cripples them when doing random reads and random writes to something like 1 mb/sec....

And obviously, since SSDs are 2.5'' or even smaller as M2 extension cards, you can make your form factor even smaller, approaching a very small box, or even a laptop. Some laptops have 2 disks (1 M2 + 1 x 2.5'') and if you have, say, 2x500gb, you should be ok for at least the next 2 years.
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January 22, 2018, 06:47:49 PM

I'm also curious where BTC will be at the end of 2018?

As are we all.

Somebody did a monte carlo simulation based upon a random sampling of daily returns. The center of the probability distribution function was $55.5K.

$55,530 center of distribution
Probability of less than $13K - 9.84%
80% confidence interval: $13,200.00-$271,277.00

You can quibble with the validity of past returns used as a basis for future predictions, but its one analysis.

https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2
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January 22, 2018, 06:50:00 PM

These youtube technical analysts experts are really pissing me off, now everyone knows BTC is going to 8k or even less and everyone will buy back right at the bottom of the dip and nobody will sell at the bottom at 8k or below, yeah right everyone will do well if they listen to those no-lifer high school dropouts that got an opportunity to actually have any audience once in their lifetime, got only one question for them - how long did the last flash crash last (july & september) and how big was the rise that followed after everyone bought theirs coins back?
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January 22, 2018, 06:50:36 PM

Those are the good posts, jbreher.  Grin
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January 22, 2018, 06:52:21 PM

Segwit, LN, Big Blocks, Satoshi vision, Blockstream, Core, and much more:

https://github.com/bitcoin-dot-org/bitcoin.org/pull/2010

Meanwhile, plenty of exchanges aren't even batching txs, spending blockchain space inefficiently... It's like every withdrawal request is input, the client's output and change back to the exchange for the next withdrawal from that address.
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January 22, 2018, 06:53:05 PM

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.

I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.

My (perhaps flawed) understanding is that in the current implementation, all nodes broadcast all channel state changes to all other nodes. This is necessary, of course, as nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous path route discovery.

For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).

I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.
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January 22, 2018, 06:58:37 PM

segwit adaption is increasing.

How are you measuring that?



Quote
at least the bitcoin market dominance is increasing right now.

At least there's that.

Oh. 34.9%? Is that good?
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January 22, 2018, 07:04:36 PM

On a tangentially-related matter, does anyone know why the forums got rid of the glowing ignore color, based on how many people have a particular user marked for ignore ?
Oooh.  I had never noticed this but would enjoy it.

Disappeared around the end of 2013, IIRC, about the same time avatars were locked (for years).  Avatars became changeable again within a couple years, but the forum just couldn't afford the expense of glowing ignore buttons.  There's the new software to develop, you know!  Can't be robbing from that for trivial things.

Pretty sure Bob was wanting to ignore me for all my various Monero shilling.  Maybe I could just change my avatar to a glowing ignore button?
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January 22, 2018, 07:04:44 PM

Those are the good posts, jbreher.  Grin

there is a reason he isn't on ignore

that and the politeness
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January 22, 2018, 07:05:26 PM

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  Tongue

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?
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January 22, 2018, 07:08:54 PM

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  Tongue

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?
It must be on the companies time.  I doubt they could forbid a perfectly legal activity done outside the companies time.
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January 22, 2018, 07:09:35 PM

Pretty sure Bob was wanting to ignore me for all my various Monero shilling.  Maybe I could just change my avatar to a glowing ignore button?

Nah, you're cool bro. I'm actually sorta kinda interested in Monero/ZCash. I can appreciate and see them for what they are trying to be.

Not interested enough, tho, to invest in, at this time.
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January 22, 2018, 07:10:59 PM

Along these lines, I'm looking to build myself a "proper" server to run Bitcoind and LND. Ideally RAID 10 for the boot volume, and RAID 10 for the blockchain/LND volume.

Figure software RAID under Ubuntu is good enough (?)

Disk bandwidth will be pretty low. SW RAID is fine. mdadm is your friend.
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January 22, 2018, 07:11:28 PM

Does RSK support tokens like ERC20? 
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January 22, 2018, 07:14:47 PM

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  Tongue

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?

I want to know that too. If someone could post the original article in full (it's behind a paywall) I will read, translate, and give a TLDR.
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January 22, 2018, 07:22:53 PM

I think it’s the requirement for an “always online” connnection. Just easier with cloud.  

Don’t ask me to explain what happens if your node goes offline.  I don’t know.

It enables each of your channel counterparts to broadcast transactions stealing the value you have locked up in that channel, for one. Amongst other ills.
And gives said counterpart the chance to have their whole assets on that channel forfeited by you if anyone snitches on them within a week. I wouldn't try that.

Comprehensive list of entities currently operating such a service:
1)  Huh

Quote
By the way, the phrase you wrote and I underlined could be read as meaning that there are several counterparts per channel. There are only two actors for each channel: yourself and the other end (counterpart).

Yes, bit if you have more than one channel, each with one counterparty, you have in total more than one counterparty. That's all I was trying to convey there.
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January 22, 2018, 07:24:11 PM



I wonder what explains the difference between these two trends during the last couple of months.

uhhhh

nineteen THOUSAND fucking dollars?

No, actually what I meant was the difference between the trends for the terms "bitcoin" and "cryptocurrency": as you can see in the last month "bitcoin" almost halved, but "cryptocurrency" recovered the same level of searches after a dip. It seems that the interest in altcoins is now less tied to Bitcoin, yet in the market prices still follow Bitcoin.
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January 22, 2018, 07:26:14 PM

Those are the good posts, jbreher.  Grin

there is a reason he isn't on ignore

that and the politeness

Thanks. I try not to inject negativity.
jbreher
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January 22, 2018, 07:27:38 PM

I think the real news there is that a Norwegian company has 31,000 employees? Who knew.  Tongue

And they are wasting worktime when they daytrade.

Given the translation, I don't understand the scope. Is the company forbidding trading on the company's dime? On the company's time? Or any trading -- even private, off-hours -- on the part of employees?
It must be on the companies time.  I doubt they could forbid a perfectly legal activity done outside the companies time.

That's what I think too. Than again, I'm 'merkin. From my vantage point, eurozone is ever-so-slightly leading us into full-on batshit-crazy socialism. So, dunno.
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