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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21292736 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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January 25, 2018, 01:04:42 AM
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I am calling for a nice little spike within 36 hours.

I'll keep HODLing on my $12.5k sell order for another 36 hours.

If it plunges below $10k, I will find you, and make you my bitch.

No lube.


Whoaza!!!!!!

Prediction making has consequences these days.   Us HODLers, and perhaps especially Toxic, are hoping for a spike in the upwards direction in the coming day and a half.

Regarding my own predicting abilities, I frequently am pretty whimpy in that respect.  I consider that currently we have a BTC  price battle that is largely ranging in the $10k to $12.5k arena, so certainly Bob is betting on price movement into the upper end of the range - which seems to be reasonable, yet really nothing to write home about until we bounce either above the range into the $13ks or below the range, into the 4 digits.  Maybe I am close to 50/50 in my current thinking regarding which way the break out is going to go, and I suppose that if I was forced in either direction, I would give a slightly more favorable to up.. perhaps 51%

No hopium here per say my friend. Just putting forth some speculation. If enough of us throw mud against the wall..some is bound to stick.

My use of "hope" might NOT have been the best of choices, yet I did not mean anything denigrating about it  - because certainly the past month has been a bit frustrating for HODLers and those of us who have been contemplating decent likelihoods of further upwards BTC price movements.  So, surely, the longer that BTC prices bleed downwards and then get stuck in lower price ranges causes many folks to become less and less bullish - and even perhaps to give up on some of their BTC accumulation strategy and to take profits while the price is going down... just likely establishing that some of these folks are engaging in such behavior because they are over-invested (even if just short-term) even in light of their own long term BTC bullishness.

Personally, If we really reflect upon what we are doing, I don't think that many of us are really throwing up mud - because in the end, even though a lot of folks like to talk in terms of absolutes, I really think that if push comes to shove, they are merely talking in terms of what they believe to be more probable than not, even while most folks tend to assign too high a percentage on the side of the outcome that they believe to be most probable.


I actually think you show the most discipline when it comes to having a "strategy" anyway.

Maybe I am a bit of a navel gazer because I certainly do get some pleasures out of analyzing my own approach - whether anyone responds to my analysis or not.  

I think that by constantly attempting to practice and then looking at your own approach, you become more and more in tune with how to make it better and perhaps less emotionally involved.  Yet, believe me, I also have second thoughts about my own approach, especially when the overall value of my holdings drops 50%.  I mean I am trading with so small of a percentage of my overall holdings that BTC prices falling causes nearly an equal drop in the overall value of my holdings, even though I am buying all the way down.

In reviewing my own application of my buy on the way down system, I see that when BTC prices hit $19,666, I had accumulated fiat that was valued about 10% of my total value.  When BTC prices dropped by 50%, I used about 50% of what I had accumulated in fiat to buy back BTC.  If BTC prices were to drop an additional 75% from $11,300 to $3k, then I already have BTC buy orders set up that project that I would end up using 75% of my currently existing fiat to buy back BTC down to that $3k level.

I am not even sure if I understand my own system exactly because from time to time I tweak it a little bit to confirm that "this would be good at x price" or "this would be good y price,"  so if BTC prices go shooting one way or another (which we have already witnessed very many times, even in recent times), then I have already predetermined my buy/sell amounts to be o.k for such BTC price shooting.  

Actually, several of us HODLers and BTC bulls were probably quite shocked beyond our belief to experience BTC prices to shoot up with such violence past $5k - $7k and into the 5 digits and then to go as far as $19,666.  Yes, a lot of us have considered shooting up past that $5-$7k price range to be possible, but it became quite a deer in the headlights moment when it happened, and there are some folks who have some tentative plan that they follow no matter what (and that was me), and some others who were stressed out because they were trying to create a plan in the midst of the happening, which is much more difficult to do.  

I think that no matter what some of us, including myself, are going to have second thoughts about "I should have sold more" or "I should have bought more" , yet the more that you consider your plan in advance and reconsider and tweak it, the better you are going to be to lessen some of those stresses (that do not go away completely).


And ikr...Bob is out to get me...im scared kinda.       ..not even the common courtesy to offer a reach around. /s
You will be fine tomorrow Bob..go find some varmint to take it out on.


Probably Bob is much more of a sweet teddy bear (not trying to imply) than he makes out to be.  

Nice doji forming on the 6hr..

After all these years in bitcoin, I frequently have difficulties attributing meaning to some of these chart (TA) indictators, and sometimes difficult to determine which chart is best for which purpose.  I do tend to think that the 3 day or the 1 week are better to figure out if trade volume is moving in one or another direction - because sometimes we can lulls in the action for a few days that returns in GREAT force a few days later.
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January 25, 2018, 01:13:23 AM


Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that the Chinese put all kinds of trackers on their phones, primarily to keep tabs on their own people, but of course also spilling over to us roundeyes when we purchase a phone from them.

I just don't think those trackers have any consequences for me when I sweep my keys. That's why I asked for examples, If I'm proved wrong I would have to reexamine my position.

OK, If I overstated your position I apologize for that, and yes, I was unnecessarily dickish in the post that lit all this off, sorry.

If you are only using a phone to sweep a few bucks worth of forks out of addresses ALREADY EMPTIED of BTC (and actually I would say BCH depending on the balance) I guess the convenience may be worth the risk.

As far as examples, absence of proof is not proof of absence, phones get hacked all the time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/21/business/dealbook/phone-hack-bitcoin-virtual-currency.html

Apology accepted. All good.
I don't get it, how can they move a mobile phone number? Where I live the number is locked to the sim card. If you want to move your number to another phone you would have to physically move the sim card to that phone. There is no other way.
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January 25, 2018, 01:16:21 AM

Anyone else unable to access coinbase?  Won't load since yesterday on either of my browsers and cant access the send/receive on my phone.


It's been online for days with no problems according to this.

http://www.isitdownrightnow.com/coinbase.com.html

Try installing the latest versions of some alternative browsers.
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January 25, 2018, 01:23:56 AM

Text message 2fa is not true 2fa for the very reason hackers can port your phone number.
google authenticater or authy  is true 2fa in that no phone number involved.

Is there any way to stop Authy from keeping a copy of my secret keys?
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January 25, 2018, 01:28:02 AM



Apology accepted. All good.
I don't get it, how can they move a mobile phone number? Where I live the number is locked to the sim card. If you want to move your number to another phone you would have to physically move the sim card to that phone. There is no other way.

In most of the world it's possible to transfer a phone number to a different sim card. There's a few scams that use the technique, and most people aren't aware of them


https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/technology/phone-number-porting-scam-grows-in-australia-with-thousands-of-dollars-stolen-from-victims/news-story/6dc83c76543b5888b12a10790b9ee209

Quote
Gold Coast businesswoman Cynthia Dammerer discovered she had been targeted by criminals after her mobile phone mysteriously went out of service after 9pm one night.

While she initially thought her phone network was down, she later discovered the fraudsters had also broken into her email account and tried to change her password.

I called Telstra and they said I had moved my number over to Vodafone and I’d have to go into a store to sort it out,” she said. “I had no idea.”

Ms Dammerer said scammers had moved her phone number to an untraceable Vodafone prepaid account so it could be used to verify bank account transactions, and potentially create new accounts.

“They did it all online,” she said. “They didn’t even have to go into a shop.

Syke
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January 25, 2018, 01:33:13 AM
Merited by Dabs (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Text message 2fa is not true 2fa for the very reason hackers can port your phone number.
google authenticater or authy  is true 2fa in that no phone number involved.

Is there any way to stop Authy from keeping a copy of my secret keys?

Replying to myself, Authy backups are encrypted locally. Yay!

https://authy.com/blog/how-the-authy-two-factor-backups-work/
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January 25, 2018, 01:35:21 AM

Text message 2fa is not true 2fa for the very reason hackers can port your phone number.
google authenticater or authy  is true 2fa in that no phone number involved.

Is there any way to stop Authy from keeping a copy of my secret keys?

is that the problem with Authy?

Doug alludes to a problem in one of his vids, but doesn't go into details.  I am uncomfortable with Google (Alphabet) having my data.
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January 25, 2018, 01:39:11 AM

And replying to myself, Polk says that Authy uses your phone number!?!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBVCn7q_fSI  08:15
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January 25, 2018, 01:41:54 AM



Apology accepted. All good.
I don't get it, how can they move a mobile phone number? Where I live the number is locked to the sim card. If you want to move your number to another phone you would have to physically move the sim card to that phone. There is no other way.

In most of the world it's possible to transfer a phone number to a different sim card. There's a few scams that use the technique, and most people aren't aware of them


https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/technology/phone-number-porting-scam-grows-in-australia-with-thousands-of-dollars-stolen-from-victims/news-story/6dc83c76543b5888b12a10790b9ee209

Quote
Gold Coast businesswoman Cynthia Dammerer discovered she had been targeted by criminals after her mobile phone mysteriously went out of service after 9pm one night.

While she initially thought her phone network was down, she later discovered the fraudsters had also broken into her email account and tried to change her password.

I called Telstra and they said I had moved my number over to Vodafone and I’d have to go into a store to sort it out,” she said. “I had no idea.”

Ms Dammerer said scammers had moved her phone number to an untraceable Vodafone prepaid account so it could be used to verify bank account transactions, and potentially create new accounts.

“They did it all online,” she said. “They didn’t even have to go into a shop.



Ok I checked here and you can move your phone number to another phone company, but they will send you a new sim card with the number. So no magic online stuff. Would that not be a good way to get rid of the scamming in the rest of the world.
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January 25, 2018, 01:47:12 AM

And replying to myself, Polk says that Authy uses your phone number!?!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBVCn7q_fSI  08:15

They use it for some stuff, but it doesn't appear to involve the actual keys, so should be fine.
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January 25, 2018, 01:55:01 AM



Ok I checked here and you can move your phone number to another phone company, but they will send you a new sim card with the number. So no magic online stuff. Would that not be a good way to get rid of the scamming in the rest of the world.

Frankly I'm surprised they allow moving phone numbers to new sims so easily in the majority of the world. It would get rid of those scams if every country used your country's system. I don't understand why they haven't already done it.
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January 25, 2018, 02:02:16 AM

the past month has been a bit frustrating for HODLers and those of us who have been contemplating decent likelihoods of further upwards BTC price movements

What eldritch horrors await those who put their faith in imaginary, paper assets in the end.
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January 25, 2018, 02:03:06 AM


Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that the Chinese put all kinds of trackers on their phones, primarily to keep tabs on their own people, but of course also spilling over to us roundeyes when we purchase a phone from them.

I just don't think those trackers have any consequences for me when I sweep my keys. That's why I asked for examples, If I'm proved wrong I would have to reexamine my position.

OK, If I overstated your position I apologize for that, and yes, I was unnecessarily dickish in the post that lit all this off, sorry.

If you are only using a phone to sweep a few bucks worth of forks out of addresses ALREADY EMPTIED of BTC (and actually I would say BCH depending on the balance) I guess the convenience may be worth the risk.

As far as examples, absence of proof is not proof of absence, phones get hacked all the time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/21/business/dealbook/phone-hack-bitcoin-virtual-currency.html



My favorite part.

Kissing and making up.




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January 25, 2018, 02:08:15 AM


My favorite part.

Kissing and making up.


well, we are badger bros'

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January 25, 2018, 02:09:18 AM
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Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that the Chinese put all kinds of trackers on their phones, primarily to keep tabs on their own people, but of course also spilling over to us roundeyes when we purchase a phone from them.

I just don't think those trackers have any consequences for me when I sweep my keys. That's why I asked for examples, If I'm proved wrong I would have to reexamine my position.

OK, If I overstated your position I apologize for that, and yes, I was unnecessarily dickish in the post that lit all this off, sorry.

If you are only using a phone to sweep a few bucks worth of forks out of addresses ALREADY EMPTIED of BTC (and actually I would say BCH depending on the balance) I guess the convenience may be worth the risk.

As far as examples, absence of proof is not proof of absence, phones get hacked all the time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/21/business/dealbook/phone-hack-bitcoin-virtual-currency.html

Apology accepted. All good.
I don't get it, how can they move a mobile phone number? Where I live the number is locked to the sim card. If you want to move your number to another phone you would have to physically move the sim card to that phone. There is no other way.

Phone companies may have gotten smarter about this; however, porting phone numbers can be a quite pernicious means of getting into your various e-mail and/or bitcoin related accounts.  So , you definitely gotta be careful about that.  I think that in the USA they just need your phone number and your telephone account number to be able to force port the number to whereever the fuck they want... and then you might be fucked.
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January 25, 2018, 02:15:54 AM

In my country they have declare war against crypto. They won't win.. but make us loose so many money/time. Not only my born country (france) but all western europe is in war against crypto.

So.. fuck them !

(I don't live their anymore, but you know, your born country will be always in your heart).
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January 25, 2018, 02:16:50 AM


Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that the Chinese put all kinds of trackers on their phones, primarily to keep tabs on their own people, but of course also spilling over to us roundeyes when we purchase a phone from them.

I just don't think those trackers have any consequences for me when I sweep my keys. That's why I asked for examples, If I'm proved wrong I would have to reexamine my position.

OK, If I overstated your position I apologize for that, and yes, I was unnecessarily dickish in the post that lit all this off, sorry.

If you are only using a phone to sweep a few bucks worth of forks out of addresses ALREADY EMPTIED of BTC (and actually I would say BCH depending on the balance) I guess the convenience may be worth the risk.

As far as examples, absence of proof is not proof of absence, phones get hacked all the time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/21/business/dealbook/phone-hack-bitcoin-virtual-currency.html
Check out DUO MOBILE authentication for smartphones.  Much safer! No SMS.

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January 25, 2018, 02:17:40 AM

the past month has been a bit frustrating for HODLers and those of us who have been contemplating decent likelihoods of further upwards BTC price movements

What eldritch horrors await those who put their faith in imaginary, paper assets in the end.


Yes... Roachster.  Famous for reading out of context.

If you had not noticed, bitcoin remains in a very volatile market in part because it is a seminal product in a paradigm shifting asset class, and further the market seems to be very immature - thus more easy to manipulate prices up or down. 

We can also consider the price correction from $19,666 to $9,222 to be within normal boundaries of a product such as bitcoin, even while it can be quite painful, stressful and uncertain to ride out the UP and DOWN waves.
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January 25, 2018, 02:18:56 AM


My favorite part.

Kissing and making up.


well, we are badger bros'

[http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/015/256/BadgerBadgerBadger.png[/img]

For some reason, ducks seemed cuter in this context.   Tongue Tongue
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January 25, 2018, 02:31:55 AM
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"My use of "hope" might NOT have been the best of choices, yet I did not mean anything denigrating about it."
You are not at all. It is intensely hard to look past the Id. I like to call it being a real human being. So easy to say(or type), yet so hard to practice oneself.

"I think that by constantly attempting to practice and then looking at your own approach, you become more and more in tune.."

See below.
"I am not even sure if I understand my own system.."

See below.
"Actually, several of us HODLers and BTC bulls were probably quite shocked beyond our belief.." 

Not probably..lol.
"I think that no matter what some of us, including myself, are going to have second thoughts about "I should have sold more" or "I should have bought more" , yet the more that you consider your plan in advance and reconsider and tweak it, the better you are going to be to lessen some of those stresses (that do not go away completely)."

I think JJG..that you are in the same or near the same place I feel I am at. where these "stresses" are becoming less and less relevant. I see them as applied gaming theory. Bitcoin kinda brings out a highlanderish thing...I will be the(most) only one with coin! amiright? I mean..we have to keep score somehow.
"After all these years in bitcoin, I frequently have difficulties attributing meaning to some of these chart (TA) indictators, and sometimes difficult to determine which chart is best for which purpose."

Yes...it is all voodoo and mummery...but..as many things are..some truths(?) can be gleaned I think. What one can intuit I think is cyclical. Meaning at times you are in tune and at times not so much. Mathematics...music...oscillation...vibrations...harmonics.

And besides all that..my doji never materialized..us talking about it...causation and all...
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