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Author Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread  (Read 479234 times)
CoinHoarder
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August 31, 2013, 03:16:16 PM
 #4881



"pred div rally" are you kidding Smiley ? THat dust wouldnt cover even transaction fees

I think this was a joke... a funny one at that Smiley
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August 31, 2013, 03:22:56 PM
 #4882

its interesting to watch the panic spreading through this thread and steadily accelerating.

-there is no way that anything anyone speculates on here will ever affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever
-there is no way that share price will affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever

if u are in active u r not driving, u are along for the ride. the share price can go to 0 and active will still go along with progress or regression because the money is already out of your hands. ken does not need any share holders in order to continue business. its like people are surprised that there is risk in securities for a digital currency, and don't understand there is no reward without risk. we cant all just be there for when things are bright and happy, its a two way street. if u want to wake up with a smile from doubling ur position then u better damn well be ready to wake up in shambles.

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August 31, 2013, 03:26:30 PM
 #4883

its interesting to watch the panic spreading through this thread and steadily accelerating.

-there is no way that anything anyone speculates on here will ever affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever
-there is no way that share price will affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever

if u are in active u r not driving, u are along for the ride. the share price can go to 0 and active will still go along with progress or regression because the money is already out of your hands. ken does not need any share holders in order to continue business. its like people are surprised that there is risk in securities for a digital currency, and don't understand there is no reward without risk. we cant all just be there for when things are bright and happy, its a two way street. if u want to wake up with a smile from doubling ur position then u better damn well be ready to wake up in shambles.

He owes it to his investors to keep spirits up and keep everyone updated. They did give him a free loan for what? 6+ million dollars? (I'm not really sure on the amount.)

But still, don't expect to get a free loan of millions of dollars and then them not be upset with a lack of updates... I understand the business keeps going no matter what happens here, but he is screwing over his share holders with his actions (or lack thereof in this matter.)
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August 31, 2013, 03:41:38 PM
 #4884

Speaking of which, there is also risk that Bitfunder might be closed down in the future to US investors.
Apparently, Ukyo has been trying to get with lawyers to get his exchange to be legal in the US. Unfortunately som of the requirements to make an exchange legal are great big hurdles and he has said that he has considered closing BF to new US investors and to closing BF from people in the US buying more shares of anything.

Obviously, demand fuels price, so without that demand, from the US, prices would go down. He says the US only represents 22% of activity on his exchange. Still, what does that mean? A 22% drop in all stock prices? He also said that what affects BF in terms of SEC regulation would affect the other exchanges.

The decision, of course is hold, sell, buy more. Chairforce is of course right. With great reward comes great risk. Too many people on here expect a guaranteed profit. We could wake up and find out that ActM has bone to .008, or that it has dropped to .001.

At this point, in terms of long term strategic planning, the current price of ActM is not relevant.  
At some point, there will be announcements vis a vis the legality of BF in the US, eAsic and whether ActM will have chips, whether ActM will be able to build finished mining machines and generate enough BTC to make profit, and whether ActM will be able to build machines to sell to make profit.

If BF stays open to US citizens, and there is a good announcement, and production of finished machines happens, and the website gets finished and orders come in, it will be time to celebrate.

On the other hand, BF could shut down to US citizens, eAsic could flake out, manufacuring could be slow and ActM could be slow to market.

Given all those factors, the choice is, hold and wait, sell now, and avoid further loss (if you bought into ActM at a high price), sell now (and be happy with whatever profit you have if you bought at IPO), buy more because you feel that this is a low price period and that the stars will align and that eAsic chips will come in and machines will be produced.

I am hoping that things will go well. I actually believe in Ken and the eAsic deal. My concerns are that BF will have to limit access to people who live in the US, and that causes me concern.

I suspect that the eAsic deal will be successful. No news is good news in this situation. For me, the critical factors are patience and hoping BF stays open.

On the other hand, if one or two whales (people owning large numbers of ActM shares) decide they can't wait, and decide to liquidate their ActM holdings, that would drop the price of ActM, but would not affect long term prices.

In a way, it would be good if the anxious and cautious would just dump their ActM. It would be self selection for those who share in the Koolaid. (true fact, they drank Flavor-Ade not Koolaid at Jones Town.)

My point being that until there is an announcement about chip supply, the price of the stock is irrelevant, except to those who support the long term vision of ActM.

On the other hand, these fluctuations are fun to watch.

I wish I understood options, because that would be fun too.

its interesting to watch the panic spreading through this thread and steadily accelerating.

-there is no way that anything anyone speculates on here will ever affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever
-there is no way that share price will affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever

if u are in active u r not driving, u are along for the ride. the share price can go to 0 and active will still go along with progress or regression because the money is already out of your hands. ken does not need any share holders in order to continue business. its like people are surprised that there is risk in securities for a digital currency, and don't understand there is no reward without risk. we cant all just be there for when things are bright and happy, its a two way street. if u want to wake up with a smile from doubling ur position then u better damn well be ready to wake up in shambles.

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August 31, 2013, 03:54:59 PM
 #4885

this is what was refunded/in jeopardy:

"An order of Avalon chips from steamboat's batch #1, for 68 Klondike-16 boards, rated at 68*16*282 = 307 GH/s;
An order of 20,000 Avalon chips (end of May and beginging of June orders), for a combined hashrate of 20,000*282 = 5,640 GH/s."

you guys are seriously fretting about a share price drop over 6 TH/s? they have about 400 GH/s already mining still

They plan to *sell* 921.6 terahashes in the next 11 months. They plan to be using 992 TH in the next 24 months

and you guys are complaining about 2 weeks of continual perpetual mining using avalon hardware, and how the next few weeks or few months will have lower than expected dividends due to rising difficulty? are you guys really that OBSESSED with dividends

there are several other companies planning on deploying large amounts of hashing power, PLANNING, when historically NOBODY has delivered on time. Not one single company. When Cointerra or Petamine *actually* do something, then evaluate your position in Activemining, but Activemining is still in a position to become or sell a large portion of the network.

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August 31, 2013, 03:56:08 PM
 #4886

The one thing in this thread that doesn't lie is the chart. No amount of formulas or wishful thinking will alter that. It is going down, and there are very obvious reasons why.

On the contrary the chart can lie and I've shown you the mechanism by which it is doing so right now. What doesn't lie in this situation is volume data. In this scenario traded volume is a direct reflection of perceived value - unlike spot price.
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August 31, 2013, 04:31:11 PM
 #4887

Simple solution:
Ask burnside Buy 153 BTC worth of shares -- a pittance to prove the doubters wrong.
If what u say is true, the price will stick @.005.  The "charts lie -- ignore the charts" bit is getting old.
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August 31, 2013, 04:34:00 PM
 #4888

Everyone making a big issue over share price should understand that it is a handful of extremely minor sells effecting shares price - big sells are not happening.

There are very few buyers right now (as everyone is fully invested or waiting for news) therefore a small number of sellers when there is no buying pressure can move price a long way.

Look at the Bitfunder trade history for the past 24hrs
At 8am on 30th we have 124 shares selling for 0.0039
At 7am on 31st we have we have 640 shares selling for 0.0033622

That is an apparent drop in market value of the company of approx 15%. Significant.
Now how many shares have been sold on BF between those two sells? 15% of the 5Mill+ on the exchange? No, 3,500. Incedible but true.

So, 3,500 shares x3 (to add in estimated btc.co volume) is around 10k shares sold in those 24hrs.

10Mill/10k = 1000 (0.1% of publicly held shares)

That sort of turn over is perfectly normal, 0.1% atleast SHOULD be traded daily in any healthy stock. The problem here is solely due to the lack of buyers which is causing vastly exaggerated exchange prices moves.

In this atypical situation the critical factor to take account of in assesing invester confidence is volume of sales not price moves. The volume of sales figure tells you how many people are selling their shares (the price tells you nothing right now). So 0.1% of shares are selling = nothing of any significance, it is to be expected in any stock.

Therefore I would suggest that those saying invester confidence is low and citing stock price as evidence are wrong. No one is selling, everyone is holding tight right now. It looks like ACtM investers aren't as fickle or short-sighted as some would assume.

Comments on that welcome as usual.

I currently hold over 150k+ in shares. I am holding and i have confidence that we will be hearing some good news in the near future. Confidence is not low in my opinion. Some of my close buddies are invested as well and we are not too worried.
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August 31, 2013, 04:48:19 PM
 #4889

Everyone making a big issue over share price should understand that it is a handful of extremely minor sells effecting shares price - big sells are not happening.

There are very few buyers right now (as everyone is fully invested or waiting for news) therefore a small number of sellers when there is no buying pressure can move price a long way.

Look at the Bitfunder trade history for the past 24hrs
At 8am on 30th we have 124 shares selling for 0.0039
At 7am on 31st we have we have 640 shares selling for 0.0033622

That is an apparent drop in market value of the company of approx 15%. Significant.
Now how many shares have been sold on BF between those two sells? 15% of the 5Mill+ on the exchange? No, 3,500. Incedible but true.

So, 3,500 shares x3 (to add in estimated btc.co volume) is around 10k shares sold in those 24hrs.

10Mill/10k = 1000 (0.1% of publicly held shares)

That sort of turn over is perfectly normal, 0.1% atleast SHOULD be traded daily in any healthy stock. The problem here is solely due to the lack of buyers which is causing vastly exaggerated exchange prices moves.

In this atypical situation the critical factor to take account of in assesing invester confidence is volume of sales not price moves. The volume of sales figure tells you how many people are selling their shares (the price tells you nothing right now). So 0.1% of shares are selling = nothing of any significance, it is to be expected in any stock.

Therefore I would suggest that those saying invester confidence is low and citing stock price as evidence are wrong. No one is selling, everyone is holding tight right now. It looks like ACtM investers aren't as fickle or short-sighted as some would assume.

Comments on that welcome as usual.

I currently hold over 150k+ in shares. I am holding and i have confidence that we will be hearing some good news in the near future. Confidence is not low in my opinion. Some of my close buddies are invested as well and we are not too worried.

If top shareholders like this are confident then the rest of us should be very reassured by statements like this.  Thanks auto2nr1.

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August 31, 2013, 05:08:46 PM
 #4890

No problem. Grin I would like to address that it is unfortunate Ken/PR is not keeping in touch with the community. Even if Ken/PR cannot say anything in regards to eASIC due to the NDA they should still follow up with non-eASIC news and keep spirits high as someone mentioned. Ken posted last night the dividends for the week. It does not take much effort to read through a few pages and post some replies just to calm the shareholders while he took time out of his day to post the dividends for the weeek. If anything he can give us a update on what he plans on doing with the incoming Avalon chips. Receive or refund? Just little things not having to deal with eASIC can be discussed. Maybe he can put up a timeline of when he expects the NDA to be lifted. He can discuss certain goals and projections to be hit. I just don't like the lack of communication when it comes down to it.

MESSAGE TO KEN/PR

Please do a better job of communicating with us. Just a few minutes every couple days to chat and reach out to us here should keep investors happy. The silence and the absence of communication is what is keeping shareholders on the edge.
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August 31, 2013, 05:10:01 PM
 #4891

I also have over 150k+ in shares, and am also holding and not worried. The share price is affected when short term investors see no short term results and move elsewhere and others follow suit. When we do have official news people will start buying and others will follow suit then as well. Our last word with Ken mentioned "work" was progressing with our partners, which does sound like something someone would say if they can't legally say eASIC but actual progress is being made with the chips. We have to assume that things are well underway. It's all going to come down to the product we have as well as what we can mine with that. If we deliver, we will be successful and everyone will profit. There is no reason to think that this won't be the case as of now just because we don't have an official word cleared from the NDA.

That said, I fully agree that we need Ken to push eASIC for at least permission to officially announce the partnership. Actual reported progress is absolutely necessary for short term growth, as well as building customer confidence for our products. We do need this to happen right away and isn't too much to ask for to have this cleared from the NDA.
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August 31, 2013, 05:12:57 PM
 #4892

If they don't remove the NDA, this is going down and down. Maybe they should reconsider it with their partner(s). No NDA = more trust = share price up to 0.005+

EDIT: and btw, WHY NDA here ? I don't get it.

eASIC is a little different than most other Design Companies.

If you read their website they pride themselves on their patented technology.

In order for technology to be patented, it needs to be made public.  That's the entire point of patents - they're designed to keep companies from keeping their technology secret

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August 31, 2013, 05:14:00 PM
 #4893

If top shareholders like this are confident then the rest of us should be very reassured by statements like this.  Thanks auto2nr1.

Agreed.  This thread has become quite rabid in the past week or so, and  perhaps it's good to remind people that for every vocal impatient investor chatting in this thread, there are others who understand that Rome wasn't built in a day, and have a more realistic expectation as far as news and production schedules.

No one seems to have mentioned either that while the share price slips somewhat, the value of BTC is currently rising steadily to counter-balance.  The shares being sold could just as easily be attributed to people lessening their holdings on ActM in order to have BTC on hand.

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August 31, 2013, 05:16:36 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2013, 06:45:06 PM by navitatl
 #4894

MESSAGE TO KEN/PR

Please do a better job of communicating with us. Just a few minutes every couple days to chat and reach out to us here should keep investors happy. The silence and the absence of communication is what is keeping shareholders on the edge.

As someone with a substantial number of shares I agree that the current share price doesn't matter whatsoever to me. But on the point of "keeping investors happy" I have to chime in and say I completely disagree. Ken should spend as little time as possible on these forums. Him logging in here and reading this thread is an utter waste of  time! Even the most in-depth pieces of news and updates will still not be enough to satisfy all investors, so why bother? Tell us the crucial stuff when the time is right. Don't try to placate the trolls... Ken used to spend a lot of time doing that, and when he STOPPED that's what made me realize ActM really had a chance.
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August 31, 2013, 05:18:38 PM
 #4895


MESSAGE TO KEN/PR

Please do a better job of communicating with us. Just a few minutes every couple days to chat and reach out to us here should keep investors happy. The silence and the absence of communication is what is keeping shareholders on the edge.

+1
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August 31, 2013, 05:23:43 PM
 #4896

Radio silence like this is OK once trust has been earned.  Not when you've delivered nothing to date IMHO.  Regardless, I'm sticking in here for now, as communication is difficult and everyone's new at this.

"No new information right now.  Things are still on track.  Appreciate your patience." <- That'd be fine.
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August 31, 2013, 05:33:15 PM
 #4897

its interesting to watch the panic spreading through this thread and steadily accelerating.

-there is no way that anything anyone speculates on here will ever affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever
-there is no way that share price will affect the outcome of business between active and eASIC ever

if u are in active u r not driving, u are along for the ride. the share price can go to 0 and active will still go along with progress or regression because the money is already out of your hands. ken does not need any share holders in order to continue business. its like people are surprised that there is risk in securities for a digital currency, and don't understand there is no reward without risk. we cant all just be there for when things are bright and happy, its a two way street. if u want to wake up with a smile from doubling ur position then u better damn well be ready to wake up in shambles.

He owes it to his investors to keep spirits up and keep everyone updated. They did give him a free loan for what? 6+ million dollars? (I'm not really sure on the amount.)

But still, don't expect to get a free loan of millions of dollars and then them not be upset with a lack of updates... I understand the business keeps going no matter what happens here, but he is screwing over his share holders with his actions (or lack thereof in this matter.)

Cannot agree more.
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August 31, 2013, 05:33:50 PM
 #4898

there are several other companies planning on deploying large amounts of hashing power, PLANNING, when historically NOBODY has delivered on time. Not one single company. When Cointerra or Petamine *actually* do something, then evaluate your position in Activemining, but Activemining is still in a position to become or sell a large portion of the network.



The difference between ActM and Cointerra / Hashfast is that our competitors are confirmed to be at some stage of development with their chip design company.

We have confirmed that ActM is in dialogue with eAsic on some level, but nothing more concrete than that, and there has to be a reason for it. I have no doubt that Ken would release detailed information if he could, and companies generally have every motivation to issue a press release regarding new business, but eAsic is in a unique position right now.

They have just accepted a "strategic" investment from Seagate and have committed to working with them on custom chips, etc. In addition, it seems from the eAsic website that their 28nm product is relatively new, as the only mention of it is a graphic that offers the option to register for early access.

<Speculation>

My feeling for some time has been that eAsic simply has much larger priorities, and probably much larger customers waiting for development of new 28nm chips. The ActM account, while seemingly large in the bitcoin world must be practically insignificant when compared to enterprise level customers like Seagate. Therefore, they can't allow ActM to publicly disclose any details because it might cause difficulty with more important customers, etc.

If time wasn't absolutely of the essence, this might not be such a big deal, but with hashrate growing and competitors seemingly further along, this leaves ActM in a very precarious spot. It puts investors in an even worse position because not only do we have no idea when we might expect to be hashing, we really have no confirmation (even from Ken) that eAsic is actually under contract to produce the chips.

</Speculation>

I satisfied myself that ActM wasn't a "scam" before I invested, and that view hasn't changed. Unfortunately that doesn't at all mean we will actually have a product in time to make a decent return, and let's be honest, the lack of any confirmation that we're under contract to produce a chip adds a level of uncertainty to this investment that wasn't contemplated a month ago.

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August 31, 2013, 05:40:06 PM
 #4899

Ken's aware of views here. Regardless of shareholders, he needs the press and confidence that an eASIC press release would bring. Prospective buyers need it, especially after Avalon and bfl let everyone down. So it's important for all shareholders, short or long term.

Also no need to say ken/pr. Ken is behind all the news, pr just helps word it and ensure it's the right thing to be saying. No news, no pr. The last main post we asked to come from Ken himself as it wasn't a regular news item.

Part of the problem with bitcoin is things happen so fast, prices move a lot based on very no news, fud, or low volumes, and people are very reactive, shouty and impatient. This happens across many offerings - read some other threads!

Since nothing is going to happen for a few days now, it may be best to step away from the day prices and forum for your own sanity!
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August 31, 2013, 05:40:26 PM
 #4900

Radio silence like this is OK once trust has been earned.  Not when you've delivered nothing to date IMHO.  Regardless, I'm sticking in here for now, as communication is difficult and everyone's new at this.

"No new information right now.  Things are still on track.  Appreciate your patience." <- That'd be fine.

Since there has been a lot discussion in the last couple of days, I would
like to reassure everyone that work is progressing well with our partners.

Unfortunately we are still unable to comment on this further.

This is as frustrating for us as it is for all of you.

We are allowed to confirm that the BTC were converted some time ago and the
board designs are in progress. We are also restructuring our product
offerings and fixing issues on the website. We appreciate these have been
live updates which are not ideal, but this is due to a technical issue this
week that is yet to be resolved.

This was three days ago.


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