Sure, but we can guess based on numbers that have ben provided, like the 9xxTH by 2015 (not a typo) - but remember that number was quoted when the difficulty was around 10mil. I'm pretty certain Ken can pump that hash rate out far sooner, and there is extra cash to play with now too.
Yeah. We are going to need to see updated numbers. With the Avalon refund, he should be able to push forward his estimates quite a bit.
If it was really 1PH by 2015, we'd be talking about just 39TH/mo (over 25.5mo, from 9/2013 to 19/2015). He'd have just 19.6Th/s in November, 58Th/s, and 137Th/s by the end of February. That... sounds rather dire.
But, with an extra 1,400BTC (and it was two boxes of chips he got a refund on, right?) he should have funds to accelerate that plan quite a bit.
Now that we know the chips are real, what I think we need to see to help set the price properly is a clearly laid out business plan for how he's going to make and get X number of PCBs online and hashing for Y hashrate. I think someone said it would be 16 chips per board, or 396Gh/s/board.
In which case, 39Th would be just 10 boards a month. If we assume that the the chips are as power-efficient as Cointerra's, 0.55W/gh, then we're looking at 218W/board.
In order to get 1PH, ActM would need about 2,500 boards. At, let's say $30 for the boards, components and assembly, that comes out to $75k, just for the PCBs. And $30/board is a pretty good deal. And if the raw chips cost just 50 cents/gh/s (which someone suggested) you're still looking at $500k for 1PH (since it's a million GH/s).
You'll also need half a megawatt of power to run these boards. at 10 cents/kwh and 720h in a month that comes out to $39k/mo in electricity charges. So, I'd say $600k to get started with 1PH/s. (boards, chips, first month's electricity - and that's ignoring facility costs.)
With $170k (1,400 BTC at current prices) and with these estimates, you'd be able to pay for 282Th/s the first month. (11280 chips, @$12.5 = $141k, 705 boards @$30 = $21k, 110kwh/mo@$0.1 /kwh = $11k/mo in electrical costs
(that comes out to $173k, but I'm rounding numbers off here) Note that these figures are derived:
1) Using Cointerra's power estimates,
2) Guessing $30/board, which is somewhat optimistic.
3) Using someone other people's unofficial figures for chips per board and cost per GH/s for chips (50 cents, making the chip $12.50)
4) guessing about how much money ActM has to spend on this project. ($170k or $600k)
Having official numbers would provide a lot more clarity on how the stock should be priced. If you think the stock is currently undervalued then you should want these numbers to be announced, as more clarity should then increase stock price, right?
I think it would also be helpful to see a well defined business plan for making this all happen by November.
