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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916288 times)
smoothie
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March 26, 2015, 07:28:12 AM
 #2701

I'd like to share some thoughts about altcoins rise-fall-death cycle.

I noticed when Bitcoin enters some long bearish cycle - always appears some fork which starts to rise to btc. NMC, LTC and now DRK. After some time fork dies and next fork appears. So I'll try to analyze this phenomenon.

Let's call next fork "shit".

1. When Bitcoin enters some noticed bearish cycle, people start to be bored. They want permanent rally.
2. Bored people look around and here is a "shit". The same Proof Of Work  shit as Bitcoin, but has some special features.
3. "Oh my god, it's a new paradigm! " - people say and start to sell bitcoin and buy shit. Bitcoin bearish phase accelerates.
4. Meanwhile shit market saturates,  Bitcoin market passing capitulation phase and starts to recover. Bitcoin becomes bullish.
5. People keeping shit - watch for rise of Bitcoin. They move their funds back and create additional bullish acceleration to bitcoin. Shit drops.
6. Bitcoin market saturates and enters correction.
7. Back to point 1.

I call it "small shit cycle", when Bitcoin and shit go in antiphase.

Every alt fork makes few shit cycles and then slowly goes to a toilet pan. Because new alt with "new paradigm" appears and enters it's first shit cycle, it's first step to a pan.

I call it "big shit cycle" - when shit after few cycles goes to a pan and another shit appears.

Meanwhile, every altcoin place is a pan because of "Long fork theorem" which CJDNS founder told me in IRC in 2012.

This is only theoretical thoughts, based on multi year market observations. I hope in some time I'll make a science paper. Hehe.

Define the word "die".

Nmc and LTC are still alive as far as I can tell.  Roll Eyes

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March 26, 2015, 09:08:57 AM
 #2702

Not sure I agree with luc on the shitcoin theory (long-term XMR/BBR/DRK shill here ^_^), but as always, a pleasure to read his views on the technical side of BTC. We're glad to have him here Smiley Tip sent.

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April 03, 2015, 05:21:37 AM
 #2703

So Luc, what is your prognosis now?  Looks like it is stagnating around 240-255... doesn't want to go above 255 and doesn't want to go below 235... When this tends to happen, it's followed the long term downward trend, so it looks like your analysis will come to fruition.  However, do you think this time it might be different then the previous several waves?
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April 03, 2015, 08:11:22 PM
Last edit: April 04, 2015, 04:38:14 AM by wpalczynski
 #2704

I am interested as well in what your thoughts Luc are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

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April 03, 2015, 10:24:54 PM
 #2705

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.
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April 04, 2015, 12:23:43 AM
 #2706

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

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April 04, 2015, 12:37:38 AM
 #2707

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

meh this no analysis. more like gossip.
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April 04, 2015, 01:27:39 AM
 #2708

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

What imminent release?
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April 04, 2015, 01:29:45 AM
 #2709

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

What imminent release?

Read this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102549768

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April 04, 2015, 04:06:58 AM
 #2710

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

What imminent release?

Read this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102549768

No where does it say that in the article.
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April 04, 2015, 04:34:52 AM
 #2711

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

That ETF could eventually cause some short term rise but overall it's bearish as fuck as it finally gives a chance for all those investors who bought at 600-800 to cut their loses which they were not able to do so far.

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April 04, 2015, 04:36:43 AM
 #2712

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

What imminent release?

Read this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102549768

No where does it say that in the article.

The first line of the article

"Investors soon could begin trading shares of the first investment vehicle tied to bitcoin..."

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April 04, 2015, 05:42:07 AM
 #2713

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

That ETF could eventually cause some short term rise but overall it's bearish as fuck as it finally gives a chance for all those investors who bought at 600-800 to cut their loses which they were not able to do so far.

I don't think the types of "qualified" investors which made the minimum purchase required for this fund back in the day will be quick to sell at a loss.

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April 04, 2015, 02:49:14 PM
 #2714

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

meh this no analysis. more like gossip.


I'd agree with wpalczynski. There is a significant group of people who have known about bitcoin for ages but wouldn't be comfortable putting their money through the class of exchanges we have at the moment.


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April 04, 2015, 03:06:46 PM
 #2715

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

meh this no analysis. more like gossip.


I'd agree with wpalczynski. There is a significant group of people who have known about bitcoin for ages but wouldn't be comfortable putting their money through the class of exchanges we have at the moment.


So what? They'll buy paper shares in sum usg approved fund?
This had nothing to do with bitcoin imho.
I'd go OTC anyway.
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April 04, 2015, 03:16:27 PM
 #2716

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

meh this no analysis. more like gossip.


I'd agree with wpalczynski. There is a significant group of people who have known about bitcoin for ages but wouldn't be comfortable putting their money through the class of exchanges we have at the moment.


So what? They'll buy paper shares in sum usg approved fund?
This had nothing to do with bitcoin imho.
I'd go OTC anyway.

Going OTC still requires you to 'store' these Bitcoins yourself which for some people due to all the stories in the media might seem like a risky proposition.  These high net worth investors have trusted brokerage firms all their life and I posit they will feel significantly more comfortable with their investment being held in this traditional way instead of a paper wallet or an encrypted HD which in their eyes can be hacked or corrupted due to hardware failures.

Last but certainly not least these legitimate, wallstreet brokerage firms have guarantees for their clients reassuring them that if their investments were lost due to thefts or some sort of hardware failure they are covered by insurance.

I've been known to be a little over-Bullish but I am optimistic about this new class of investors being able to channel their wealth into our ecosystem through traditional investment vehicles.

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April 05, 2015, 02:53:16 PM
 #2717

Why are you guys cluttering this thread with posts that are not related to masterluc's writing?

I come here to read what he has to say...not a bunch of chatty housewives gossip.

There are ten thousand other threads here full of losers blabbing about the latest wet dream they had about bitcoin...go find one of those to masterbate each other in.
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April 05, 2015, 10:41:51 PM
 #2718

Why are you guys cluttering this thread with posts that are not related to masterluc's writing?

I come here to read what he has to say...not a bunch of chatty housewives gossip.

There are ten thousand other threads here full of losers blabbing about the latest wet dream they had about bitcoin...go find one of those to masterbate each other in.


+1 This had to be said..
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April 06, 2015, 09:56:42 AM
 #2719

According to strong bearish divergence on daily chart (which price didn't neutralized during weak rally) I see a pretty propabable H&S pattern



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April 06, 2015, 10:36:23 AM
 #2720

So what about on macd cross on your chart?
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