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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916648 times)
tokeweed
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April 11, 2015, 05:45:11 PM
 #2741


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bassclef
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April 11, 2015, 06:17:58 PM
 #2742

H&S volume does not measure up. Volume has steadily decreased on the way down from the head and the right shoulder where it should increase. OBV has been making higher highs during the same period.

Volume has been pretty much the same when you compare both shoulders.

A H&S top needs expanding volume to the downside (after the head forms) to confirm it as a distribution pattern. So you'd want to see more volume on the right shoulder.

We may see the volume confirmation on the next test of the neckline IMO.

The point is that H&S top is a distribution pattern so red volume must be increasing on the right side of the pattern. There has to be significant distribution (selling) happening throughout the entire pattern (not just on the neckline break) for the pattern to be valid.
Okurkabinladin
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April 11, 2015, 08:09:02 PM
 #2743

Been long, huh Inca?

No, I don't trade with leverage. I just accumulate on weakness.

You seem to be speaking with authority all over the forum and predicting definite price falls. Let's see some TA or some fundamental analysis to back up the fine words..

 Grin

Fair deal. It´s not my intention to come off as disrespectful, though  Wink all of us here just keep exchanging opinions, regardless if the poster is motivated by TA, FA, astrology or even malice. You seem rather sceptical about further price drops, may I ask you why?
Wary
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April 11, 2015, 08:15:09 PM
 #2744

Fair deal. It´s not my intention to come off as disrespectful, though  Wink all of us here just keep exchanging opinions, regardless if the poster is motivated by TA, FA, astrology or even malice. You seem rather sceptical about further price drops, may I ask you why?
Not in this thread. This thread is for serious TA analisys, by OP or by somebody who feels he can contribute on same level. For astrology, malice or nice pictures - wall observer thread.

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
joe 90
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April 12, 2015, 01:10:51 PM
 #2745

Fair deal. It´s not my intention to come off as disrespectful, though  Wink all of us here just keep exchanging opinions, regardless if the poster is motivated by TA, FA, astrology or even malice. You seem rather sceptical about further price drops, may I ask you why?
Not in this thread. This thread is for serious TA analisys, by OP or by somebody who feels he can contribute on same level. For astrology, malice or nice pictures - wall observer thread.

Would moon cycles be a grey area?

Are they TA or astrology?
Joerii
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April 12, 2015, 03:26:41 PM
 #2746

Fair deal. It´s not my intention to come off as disrespectful, though  Wink all of us here just keep exchanging opinions, regardless if the poster is motivated by TA, FA, astrology or even malice. You seem rather sceptical about further price drops, may I ask you why?
Not in this thread. This thread is for serious TA analisys, by OP or by somebody who feels he can contribute on same level. For astrology, malice or nice pictures - wall observer thread.

Would moon cycles be a grey area?

Are they TA or astrology?

Stop asking unrelated questions. Not what this thread is for. Have some respect.

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realdos
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April 19, 2015, 09:07:22 PM
 #2747

I need picture of this virtual bounce along with indicators to answer )

There was a bounce back up off of 208-210 (210 in stamp). What do you think?
Chef Ramsay
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April 19, 2015, 10:27:07 PM
 #2748

What the heck is going on in this thread? Is someone holding masterluc hostage in an unknown location somewhere? I like following these analysis threads and learning how to view the market over time.
masterluc
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April 20, 2015, 05:50:15 AM
 #2749

There was a bounce back up off of 208-210 (210 in stamp). What do you think?

Not impressed. Still under daily 10,20 sma, negative bb zone. H&S target not reached yet.

masterluc
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April 21, 2015, 10:40:30 PM
 #2750

Missed out Bitcoin mining saturation which I waited for. Bitcoin difficulty is absolutely stable since 27 Nov 2014 (around 5 months) and is 40,007,470,271.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/bitcoin-average-90-days-chart/

Mining boom looks over.

Previous mining boom finished not far from 2011 $32 price high. After some period of difficulty stabilization - price collapsed and then entered long (long for that period - Feb...Aug 2012, i remember it was SOOO LONG that time) "silence phase", when price was relatively stable and fluctuated around $5.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/bitcoin-average-all-days-logarithmic-chart/

I compared not once current situation with 2011, as 2011 high was great wave I (that time) and ATH I recognize as historical wave I.

So what that difficulty and those times (those were the times!  Grin ) tells me about what I want to tell all of you...

Taking all bullshit above, I predict! (Note - that was my market future projection since Aug 2012 which I kept in secret, that was my plan for next bubble that time. I posted it as bubble has gone and difficulty stabilized.).

1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required. If it will continue collapse, it should may it for one more year.
2. After a significant bottom I predict a very fucking long "silence phase". Collapse in 2011 took 6 months. Silence took also about 6 months - actually 5. So if we have collapsing time now for more than year - then silence phase should take not less of that time.

But silence phase is good for business. In 2012 it let great adoption of bitcoin payments when bitcoin price was so "stable" so "long".

I will recognize significant bottom at the following conditions.
1. Price will hit the weekly upper BB and then collapse into weekly 20 sma.
2. oh well, nothing more ))

Then it should collapse to weekly 20 sma and stay around there for all "silence phase".

So here is it - plan till 2016-2017. As I predicted right after ATH, this will be long and painful decline till 2016...2017.

masterluc
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April 21, 2015, 10:49:31 PM
 #2751

I noticed there is incomplete data at bitcoinx missing data from Feb. This changes nothing. Mining looks saturated.

podyx
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April 21, 2015, 11:22:53 PM
 #2752

How low do you reckon we could go?
michaelGedi
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April 21, 2015, 11:38:21 PM
 #2753

How low do you reckon we could go?

to the inverse moon

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RyNinDaCleM
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April 22, 2015, 12:40:42 AM
 #2754

How low do you reckon we could go?

Courtesy of myself (the user, not me)

Longenecker
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April 22, 2015, 02:02:47 AM
 #2755

How low do you reckon we could go?

Courtesy of myself (the user, not me)

Bull -wait for it- shit
RyNinDaCleM
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April 22, 2015, 02:27:13 AM
 #2756

How low do you reckon we could go?

Courtesy of myself (the user, not me)

Bull -wait for it- shit

Yep! That's all any of these rally's are based on. Bullshit  Wink

ErisDiscordia
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April 22, 2015, 06:35:23 AM
 #2757

How low do you reckon we could go?

Courtesy of myself (the user, not me)

Bull -wait for it- shit

Yep! That's all any of these rally's are based on. Bullshit  Wink

Indeed. See my signature for further reference.

It's all bullshit. But bullshit makes the flowers grow and that's beautiful.
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April 22, 2015, 07:07:16 AM
 #2758

I believe we are going lower as well probably, but the chart that myself uses as reference for correction is (as referred to above) complete bullshit. As Luc says, TA is "unlocked" by fundamental events. It would take a massive amount of fundamentally terrible events for it to go anywhere below 150. Unless that happens, that chart is just bear porn.


Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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April 22, 2015, 09:21:31 AM
 #2759

ITT people see what they want see...

I'm leaning towards 'more downside' as well (expecting to see sub-200 again, for example), but you'll note that luc didn't say "New lower low incoming", but rather "Further price collapse is possible, but not required".

Also, prices an order of magnitude lower than current price (i.e. ryn's myself chart) are pretty unlikely in my opinion, unless catastrophic protocol failure or "global crypto ban" happens. It took more than a year for price to deflate 75% (as measured by a 20 day average), and we're already showing signs of selling exhaustion, so I wouldn't bet much on pre-2013 prices.

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inca
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April 22, 2015, 09:21:48 AM
 #2760

How low do you reckon we could go?

Courtesy of myself (the user, not me)


Riiiiight. Such delusion at the end of a bear market.
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