Analysis

[Afrikoin]

Not sure if I did everything ok (I used a simple 200MA, 1w chart) but seems to me case is closed:

[img]https://cryptrader.com/c/prAiRt5A

I see what you mean.

Also possible that it could drag on sideways (above $210) and repeat what happened in April. Perhaps the market is not exhausted enough yet, and another move up to pull in more crowds. ie a double/triple

[8up]

Not sure if I did everything ok (I used a simple 200MA, 1w chart) but seems to me case is closed:

I think there is some more room left. Invalidated if ~$200 fails.

[pontikis13]

Not sure if I did everything ok (I used a simple 200MA, 1w chart) but seems to me case is closed:

https://cryptrader.com/c/prAiRt5A

So what is the conclusion drawn from this chart?

[klee]

Not sure if I did everything ok (I used a simple 200MA, 1w chart) but seems to me case is closed:

So what is the conclusion drawn from this chart?

MA 200 support became resistance - this line would be important if violated again to the upside.

[Xiaoxiao]

So if it reaches 300ish that means time for some kind of rally?

[klee]

So if it reaches 300ish that means time for some kind of rally?

IMO if we manage to hold 230+ we will rally to 300 again, this time for good (at least 350).

[Eivind Nag]

Since my last count was the ultra bearish one i have tried to create a valid bull count too.

At first sight it looks difficult to create a bullish count from the current situation but there is actually a very compelling case.

I think it is more or less certain that we are going to have a revisit ~190 no matter what happens, bull or bear. What happens when it hits the 195-190 level is on the other hand very uncertain.

In my bear count the price should traverse 190 almost like air and fall further, maybe towards 140-160 before correcting, maybe even further. In my bull count it should bounce on the trendline from the expanding triangle like it was a million degrees hot and explode into an extremely violent 5th wave. Impulses should be easy to count in this case.

Bull case:
https://i.imgur.com/RDFX5eg.jpg

We are nearing a junction if i ever saw one. The main uncertainty as i see it is if 152 was A, 3 or C.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Since my last count was the ultra bearish one i have tried to create a valid bull count too.

At first sight it looks difficult to create a bullish count from the current situation but there is actually a very compelling case.

I think it is more or less certain that we are going to have a revisit to around 190 no matter what happens, bull or bear. What happens when it hits the 195-190 level is on the other hand very uncertain.

In my bear count the price should traverse 190 almost like air and fall further, maybe towards 140-160 before correcting, maybe even further. In my bull count it should bounce on the trendline from the expanding triangle like it was a million degrees hot and explode into an extremely violent 5th wave. Impulses should be easy to count in this case.

Bull case:


We are nearing a junction if i ever saw one. The main uncertainty as i see it is if 152 was A, 3 or C.

That count is in no way valid as labeled!
At best, an expanding triangle as such would be B of (B) to $152's (A). Even as a diagonal (the only way that 1 and 4 can overlap), the 4 is vastly too long for the count. I definitely wouldn't classify that as "Compelling". Maybe "Hopeful" or "With a little bit of luck".


Edit:
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin looks bleak. The Divergences are bad now, and with a HH, there will either be regular Bearish divs or worsening hidden Bearish divs. Chance for the big rally has passed. Now we wait for our bottom and a long slow grind back up before we have our next chance at an epic Bull market. "Sell in May and go away!" Buy back next May!

[Afrikoin]

Since my last count was the ultra bearish one i have tried to create a valid bull count too.

At first sight it looks difficult to create a bullish count from the current situation but there is actually a very compelling case.

I think it is more or less certain that we are going to have a revisit to around 190 no matter what happens, bull or bear. What happens when it hits the 195-190 level is on the other hand very uncertain.

In my bear count the price should traverse 190 almost like air and fall further, maybe towards 140-160 before correcting, maybe even further. In my bull count it should bounce on the trendline from the expanding triangle like it was a million degrees hot and explode into an extremely violent 5th wave. Impulses should be easy to count in this case.

Bull case:


We are nearing a junction if i ever saw one. The main uncertainty as i see it is if 152 was A, 3 or C.

That count is in no way valid as labeled!
At best, an expanding triangle as such would be B of (B) to $152's (A). Even as a diagonal (the only way that 1 and 4 can overlap), the 4 is vastly too long for the count. I definitely wouldn't classify that as "Compelling". Maybe "Hopeful" or "With a little bit of luck".

+1

hat 4 LOOKS a mighty stretch.

[podyx]

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

[8up]

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

If $235 will be breached a possible rally to $350 might come to fruition. After that (for the then bullish uberbulls annoying) set-back to current valuation and even more potential downside.

[klee]

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

If $235 will be breached a possible rally to $350 might come to fruition. After that (for the then bullish uberbulls annoying) set-back to current valuation and even more potential downside.

I agree up to the 350$ part. Then I don't have an opinion.

[Fatman3001]

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

If $235 will be breached a possible rally to $350 might come to fruition. After that (for the then bullish uberbulls annoying) set-back to current valuation and even more potential downside.

I agree up to the 350$ part. Then I don't have an opinion.

Give me $380+ and I'll start posting moon gifs and mean it.

[klee]

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

If $235 will be breached a possible rally to $350 might come to fruition. After that (for the then bullish uberbulls annoying) set-back to current valuation and even more potential downside.

I agree up to the 350$ part. Then I don't have an opinion.

Give me $380+ and I'll start posting moon gifs and mean it.

Anti-gravity phenomena will start appearing at these prices..

[masterluc]

Just to remind about myself  IMO, nothing changed, I think price will continue to swing inside this channel.

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

[smoothie]

Just to remind about myself  IMO, nothing changed, I think price will continue to swing inside this channel.

What does the latest surge means? Still possible for a bullish outcome short-mid term?

Also, what do you guys think about this?

we will see. Looks like it is falling off the edge ever so slowly...but what do I know...

[Ivanhoe]

I always wonder, what do you do as a trader on such boring days? I only trade the bigger timeframes so i don't know.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I always wonder, what do you do as a trader on such boring days? I only trade the bigger timeframes so i don't know.

I trade Oil or SPX or Silver, or TSLA once or twice. There are thousands of stocks/bonds/indices/commodities out there when Bitcoin is boring.  

[Afrikoin]

I always wonder, what do you do as a trader on such boring days? I only trade the bigger timeframes so i don't know.

I trade Oil or SPX or Silver, or TSLA once or twice. There are thousands of stocks/bonds/indices/commodities out there when Bitcoin is boring.  

Do you have thread for these other commodities?

[RyNinDaCleM]

I always wonder, what do you do as a trader on such boring days? I only trade the bigger timeframes so i don't know.

I trade Oil or SPX or Silver, or TSLA once or twice. There are thousands of stocks/bonds/indices/commodities out there when Bitcoin is boring.  

Do you have thread for these other commodities?

I do not... Often I'll spot a setup just in time and reporting it in a thread may only induce losses for some since they might see it only after the expected move materializes. I don't even know where I would post something like that without starting a blog