Analysis

[macsga]

What I fail to grasp is why so much drama if EVERYTHING falls? Short the hell out of everything and the speed you will make dollars will compensate for the value it may lose in real life terms...
Pffff, these old school traders (MA, Thomas Dorsey) who hate to be on the short side of the market.
Also, there is a thing called hedging....
EDIT: The trader's nightmare is a stable market, not a turbulent one.

As always, fair points. In case everything falls apart, I don't think that having BTC or USD/EUR in your bank account will matter anymore. BTC will definitely need the internet to exist even if that consists of my two USB miners and two laptops on the intranet of my neighborhood in order to make a transaction. In case of emergency, I guess some cash will come handy but only for a few days up to a month. After that knowledge of planting / hunting will become crucial for your existence. A remote place is also a nice place to be.

O καλός o καπετάνιoς στη φoυρτoύνα φαίνεται.

Well, in this case, I prefer to be LOADED!

[figmentofmyass]

Drawing a trend line in that manner is nonsense because as long as the current price is higher than some other price in the past there will always be a possibility to do that.  The empirical extrapolation power of a trend line is proportional to how closely it follows the actual price. Doing that at price extrema you then get the worst possible one you can draw.
In other words a trend line only makes sense if it appears the price tries to "stick" to it, otherwise it's useless to do it.

I suppose, if it is "nonsense" lies in the eye of the beholder. Am certainly interested in some of your interpretations/examples of the current situation/trend.

not much a "trend" at the moment. more like choppy/whipsaw range.

the trouble with trend lines and moving averages in choppy (ie trendless) price action is they just aren't effective.

[Chef Ramsay]

I also read it. IMO it works as long as most/many others can not see the pattern he describes. Once people start to see/become "enlightened", his model will fall apart. I guess he even knows this.

Armstrong's response would probably be along the lines of 'People will always be people' and that the forces he forecasts are bigger than any government/bank therefore he doesn't seem to have any worry of his cycles being 'discovered' by masses of people. As people acting like people is what gives his model credibility. I hope I'm not scrambling that too badly!

I just wonder if his prescription of young (financially screwed atm) people will indeed get politically active and take on the establishment in the US's one party system: the right which compromises w/ the left so the welfare and warfare state just keeps increasing which squeezes out the productive capacity for middle class jobs for those coming out of college and keeping interest rates low so baby boomers must keep working. Sanders and Paul are ginning up the campuses nationwide but only Rand's plan  to restore liberty across the board is going to change anything for the better. This is the main reason I post about Rand's prez campaign in politics so at least the US bitcoiners can stay on top of things.

[Fatman3001]

What the lines represent, is actually the curve fitting of a specific series of (at first glance random) numbers over a diagram that represents the price of an asset (in this case BTC). Imagine it like you have a car that follows a specific route while driving in a desert where there's no road at all. The function is a y=f(x) where there are several ways to determine if the car is accelerating or decelerating (usually taking the 1st & 2nd derivatives).

Unfortunately, the case is not as simple as it seems, for most of the assets and/or stocks. Chances are you're reverse engineered the curve right (or a sophisticated program like Matlab did it for you) nevertheless, it seems that most of the time the predictions about the price going north or south is respective to outside of this world factors.

The most intriguing story I've ever read for the last couple of months (maybe more) was the one of Martin Armstrong who has been successful in predicting several crashes in the past couple of decades while claiming he has found the way to calculate the "circles" history makes. This may sound bogus to people like me and I've even tried to defy it presenting scientific facts based on Deterministic Chaos theory of Edward Lorenz, but despite my efforts, and contrary to science, his model seems to be working.  

If this is happening, and this guy is for real; I really want to meet him for he managed to solve the greatest mystery of the Universe and he deserves a Nobel Prize. This simply works for -literally- EVERYTHING! For what its worth; I'm still watching his space for 2015.75; even though, just today, he tries to rephrase / clarify his prediction.

Tick Tock...  

Relax, you're in good company.

- Seeing a horse-shoe on his door, the surprised visitor said that he doesn't believe in the superstition that it brings luck, to what Bohr snapped back: "I also do not believe in it; I have it there because I was told that it works also if one does not believe in it!" -

[Eivind Nag]

If i have understood correctly now:

The ABC correction up from 198 retraced only 38.2% of the entire wave. Its totally allowed to retrace to 61.8% (and more) (Around 270).

So basically the market is in a nice juncture where the bulls and the bears are fighting it out.

If the price breaks the trend line upwards you are going to see a massive short position unwind.
If the price breaks the trend line downwards you are going to see a massive long position unwind.

There is a lot of future contracts bought to bet on that pivot, expecting a violent move which ever way it goes.

[Miss Fortune]

Old topic closed. lucif nickname rebranded. Analysis reloaded.

Determining trend.... Mid term trend is undefined. Market makes decision, and if you are looking for trading advise - here is it: Stay away from trading now, keep your funds in most comfortable position for you - fiat or btc.

The last figure I drew was this potential triangle.

I agree to that better be safe than to expose the coins to other traders and they might be hackers or something so better keep it.

[sana54210]

If i have understood correctly now:

The ABC correction up from 198 retraced only 38.2% of the entire wave. Its totally allowed to retrace to 61.8% (and more) (Around 270).

So basically the market is in a nice juncture where the bulls and the bears are fighting it out.

If the price breaks the trend line upwards you are going to see a massive short position unwind.
If the price breaks the trend line downwards you are going to see a massive long position unwind.

There is a lot of future contracts bought to bet on that pivot, expecting a violent move which ever way it goes.

Always amazes me to see people risking so much with the market direction so unclear.

[oda.krell]

[...]

Always amazes me to see people risking so much with the market direction so unclear.

Don't think that's entirely true. What's the worst, still likely scenarios for your leveraged position after a breakout/down in the current market? A rapid move in the opposite direction is unlikely if you entered on a volume supported breakout (and you have stops for the worst worst case anyway). So the worst likely case would be... that nothing much happens. As in, no decent move in any direction, but just more sideways (which, right now, I think is the most likely scenario anyway). Sure, if you don't time it right that could hurt your position, but not hugely so. If you compare it against the potential payoff in case the move doesn't fizzle, it might be worth it.

tl;dr Leveraged position, after a breakout, in a sideways market doesn't seem to be such a huge risk.


Disclaimer: I don't use leverage in my regular trading. Take the above with a large grain of salt ^_^

[rebuilder]

Oda.krell: worst case would be the same as always: a market move in the wrong direction, fast enough to either mess up the trading engine on whatever rinky-dink service you trade on, leaving your stops unexecuted or at least exexcuted well beyond their set price.

That's the thing about betting on fast big moves - when those happen,  the exchanges have a tendency to become unreliable.

[oda.krell]

Oda.krell: worst case would be the same as always: a market move in the wrong direction, fast enough to either mess up the trading engine on whatever rinky-dink service you trade on, leaving your stops unexecuted or at least exexcuted well beyond their set price.

That's the thing about betting on fast big moves - when those happen,  the exchanges have a tendency to become unreliable.

You're completely skipping over the distinction I wanted to make, between 'worst case, in general' and 'worst case that is likely after breakout, in a sideways market', but okay...

Agreed that somewhere around [yellow box] or [orange box] was, approximately, the last time many traders would have concluded we have a breakdown?




That's more or less the scenario I'm describing above. Breakdown, on decent volume, followed by a bit of a disappointing 'fizzle'. And the difference between exiting with a profit or exiting with a loss is kind of narrow, but there's not much of a wipe out risk either.

If your point is that, in principle, you can always be wiped out in margin trading, the answer is: sure. Always a possible. But my point was, under the current (comparably docile) market conditions, a big swing in the opposite direction of a breakout seems less likely, reducing the risk to be wiped out.

[rebuilder]

Oda.krell: I seem to have misunderstood your post. You were talking about taking a position after a breakout? I was talking about taking a position in anticipation of a breakou or breakdown, no knowing which way it will go. That was what the post you first replied to seemed to be about.

[oda.krell]

^ Yes, that was my idea. Guess I interpreted the post I replied to a bit loosely... Sorry for the misunderstanding :)

[davidorentol]

wow  SPAM mode is again ON on this tread
please open your own treads and post stupid post & graphics there ......not here

[masterluc]

Silence phase goes well so far

[Fakhoury]

Silence phase goes well so far

What do you expect next brother ?

[Miss Fortune]

Old topic closed. lucif nickname rebranded. Analysis reloaded.

Determining trend.... Mid term trend is undefined. Market makes decision, and if you are looking for trading advise - here is it: Stay away from trading now, keep your funds in most comfortable position for you - fiat or btc.

The last figure I drew was this potential triangle.

Should never end many people have put there hopes in it.

[mordekaiser]

Old topic closed. lucif nickname rebranded. Analysis reloaded.

Determining trend.... Mid term trend is undefined. Market makes decision, and if you are looking for trading advise - here is it: Stay away from trading now, keep your funds in most comfortable position for you - fiat or btc.

The last figure I drew was this potential triangle.

It wont end because it is needed by the the investors and also to the ones who is not yet investing.

[lebing]

bitcoin.com has a forum now. Can we pls move this thread over there? This thread is the only reason I visit this site now.
https://forum.bitcoin.com/speculation-f43/

[ElectricMucus]

bitcoin.com has a forum now. Can we pls move this thread over there? This thread is the only reason I visit this site now.
https://forum.bitcoin.com/speculation-f43/

I can't believe Roger "liquidity doesn't imply solvency" Ver still has this of a dedicated flock.

Have you guys no self awareness?

[BldSwtTrs]

bitcoin.com has a forum now. Can we pls move this thread over there? This thread is the only reason I visit this site now.
https://forum.bitcoin.com/speculation-f43/

I can't believe Roger "liquidity doesn't imply solvency" Ver still has this of a dedicated flock.

Have you guys no self awareness?

And one of the first thing those little XT whiners do is doxing theymos:

https://forum.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-discussion/dox-of-theymos-michael-marquardt-blockchain-db-com-t572.html#p1502

Classy.

Lol. You trying to frame theymos as a victim is hilarious.