rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen!  I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

So...do you usually talk about Risto with your friends?  

Man, next time your bros and you organize a party tell me please, it must be crazy!  

[kehtolo]

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen!  I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

So...do you usually talk about Risto with your friends?  

Man, next time your bros and you organize a party tell me please, it must be crazy!  

Hahahahaha.. LOL.. was thinking the same..

"So.. there is this guy called Rpietila on the bitcointalk forum where i hang out.. but from now on we'll call him Risto for convenience.. well anyhoo..."

Sounds a good party.. can I get an invite too?

[zimmah]

Hey, don't leave me out to defend the wall on my own!

[windpath]

Sometimes (every second Friday) I think that the main objective of the US gov shutting down Silk Road actually was to get their hands on a large stash of Bitcoins without affecting the market price at all. They got around 130K coins out of that and they still might get several 100K more if they manage to beat the keys out of the Dread Pirate Roberts.

....

Conspiracy theory stuff this, but well within the realm of possibility I think.

They have already announced their intention to auction the coins off for fiat at some point in the future.

I imagine it will be a while with the blinding speed of the wheels of justice and all....

[nanobrain]

I can't stand your nickname though.

His name is Risto Pietila, hence RPietila.

And this from someone who calls himself "darlidada"   

[log2exp]

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

[SlipperySlope]

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

I have a project that greatly improves Bitcoin as magnet for development, infrastructure, paid order flow, and marketing. These advantages will scale linearly with market cap and thus marginalize altchains - even as they pioneer or subsequently adopt similar improvements. If the alternative technology extends Bitcoin or otherwise runs on the Bitcoin platform, then that will survive and prosper. Sidechains for Bitcoin, under somewhat stealthy development today, could provide the platform for branded coins and niche/innovative features.

In the wake of the rally now under way, I suppose that like in the November 2013 bubble, altcoins will be late to the party and fade as the bubble subsequently collapses. Assuming that altcoins as a sector are more volatile than bitcoin one could stay long in bitcoin for the moment. When the weekly price growth rate of the altcoin leaders meets or surpasses the bitcoin price growth, then  switch to the altcoins you prefer, and sell at the peak, switching back long into bitcoin during the collapse.

[BitchicksHusband]

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen!  I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

So...do you usually talk about Risto with your friends?  

Man, next time your bros and you organize a party tell me please, it must be crazy!  

Hahahahaha.. LOL.. was thinking the same..

"So.. there is this guy called Rpietila on the bitcointalk forum where i hang out.. but from now on we'll call him Risto for convenience.. well anyhoo..."

Sounds a good party.. can I get an invite too?

Aw, come on guys.  You guys KNOW that you would LOVE that party.  Otherwise you wouldn't be hanging out in his thread.

[JHammer]

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

Good Point about DRK and something I was about to ask about here.. Someone said only way to buy DRK is with BTC? And there is a BIG Pump and Dump going on right now with DRK..  Could that be a big part of what is driving BTC up right now?? If so, scary and seems pretty thin ice..

[zimmah]

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

I have a project that greatly improves Bitcoin as magnet for development, infrastructure, paid order flow, and marketing. These advantages will scale linearly with market cap and thus marginalize altchains - even as they pioneer or subsequently adopt similar improvements. If the alternative technology extends Bitcoin or otherwise runs on the Bitcoin platform, then that will survive and prosper. Sidechains for Bitcoin, under somewhat stealthy development today, could provide the platform for branded coins and niche/innovative features.

In the wake of the rally now under way, I suppose that like in the November 2013 bubble, altcoins will be late to the party and fade as the bubble subsequently collapses. Assuming that altcoins as a sector are more volatile than bitcoin one could stay long in bitcoin for the moment. When the weekly price growth rate of the altcoin leaders meets or surpasses the bitcoin price growth, then  switch to the altcoins you prefer, and sell at the peak, switching back long into bitcoin during the collapse.

too risky for me, but probably can be a big profit when done right

[Wekkel]

Altcoins are wicked risky, but the reward can be immense. Look at Mooncoin now: only worth a few Litoshis now but once 30 Satoshis......

Its all about momentum and a lot of patience.

[SlipperySlope]

Altcoins are wicked risky, but the reward can be immense. Look at Mooncoin now: only worth a few Litoshis now but once 30 Satoshis......

Its all about momentum and a lot of patience.

Bitcoin has increased in price on average 10x annually. That is quite enough risk / reward for me. I get nervous whenever I sell bitcoin waiting for the price to go lower. Much better to be long in bitcoin except for the bubble peak - as Risto has guided me.

[rpietila]

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

Good Point about DRK and something I was about to ask about here.. Someone said only way to buy DRK is with BTC? And there is a BIG Pump and Dump going on right now with DRK..  Could that be a big part of what is driving BTC up right now?? If so, scary and seems pretty thin ice..

1. Altcoins have not really gained relative to BTC in the last months. They still account for only 9% of the total market cap. If this number rises to more than 20%, I would start to consider them. Otherwise no need.

2. A low-risk way to hedge yourself for the risk that an alt would conquer Bitcoin is as follows: buy into every altcoin with the same percentage as you hold Bitcoins. You only need to divest 9% and you are invested in all cryptos and it is completely equal for you whatever happens between them from then on.

2b. To make it sane, employ a lower threshold such as only buy the alts that are minimum $10M marketcap AND rising vs. BTC.

3. DRK is not getting interesting at this moment. It has just undergone a pump with price 20-doubling. It was interesting in the beginning of this, similarly as BlackCoin. I would rather short DRK due to momentum considerations now (although this may change).

4. If BTC is bought to immediately buy DRK, it has no net effect to BTC price.

[JHammer]

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

Good Point about DRK and something I was about to ask about here.. Someone said only way to buy DRK is with BTC? And there is a BIG Pump and Dump going on right now with DRK..  Could that be a big part of what is driving BTC up right now?? If so, scary and seems pretty thin ice..

1. Altcoins have not really gained relative to BTC in the last months. They still account for only 9% of the total market cap. If this number rises to more than 20%, I would start to consider them. Otherwise no need.

2. A low-risk way to hedge yourself for the risk that an alt would conquer Bitcoin is as follows: buy into every altcoin with the same percentage as you hold Bitcoins. You only need to divest 9% and you are invested in all cryptos and it is completely equal for you whatever happens between them from then on.

2b. To make it sane, employ a lower threshold such as only buy the alts that are minimum $10M marketcap AND rising vs. BTC.

3. DRK is not getting interesting at this moment. It has just undergone a pump with price 20-doubling. It was interesting in the beginning of this, similarly as BlackCoin. I would rather short DRK due to momentum considerations now (although this may change).

4. If BTC is bought to immediately buy DRK, it has no net effect to BTC price.

Interesting..  Thank you... 

[smoothie]

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

Good Point about DRK and something I was about to ask about here.. Someone said only way to buy DRK is with BTC? And there is a BIG Pump and Dump going on right now with DRK..  Could that be a big part of what is driving BTC up right now?? If so, scary and seems pretty thin ice..

1. Altcoins have not really gained relative to BTC in the last months. They still account for only 9% of the total market cap. If this number rises to more than 20%, I would start to consider them. Otherwise no need.

2. A low-risk way to hedge yourself for the risk that an alt would conquer Bitcoin is as follows: buy into every altcoin with the same percentage as you hold Bitcoins. You only need to divest 9% and you are invested in all cryptos and it is completely equal for you whatever happens between them from then on.

2b. To make it sane, employ a lower threshold such as only buy the alts that are minimum $10M marketcap AND rising vs. BTC.

3. DRK is not getting interesting at this moment. It has just undergone a pump with price 20-doubling. It was interesting in the beginning of this, similarly as BlackCoin. I would rather short DRK due to momentum considerations now (although this may change).

4. If BTC is bought to immediately buy DRK, it has no net effect to BTC price.

Generally agree with this. Likely this can change.

DRK is currently just a pumped up coin. It needs time to grow. The growth it has had over the past month is crazy but i suspect you will see it correct and steady at a lower range than it is now.

[manfred]

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

Good Point about DRK and something I was about to ask about here.. Someone said only way to buy DRK is with BTC? And there is a BIG Pump and Dump going on right now with DRK..  Could that be a big part of what is driving BTC up right now?? If so, scary and seems pretty thin ice..

1. Altcoins have not really gained relative to BTC in the last months. They still account for only 9% of the total market cap. If this number rises to more than 20%, I would start to consider them. Otherwise no need.

2. A low-risk way to hedge yourself for the risk that an alt would conquer Bitcoin is as follows: buy into every altcoin with the same percentage as you hold Bitcoins. You only need to divest 9% and you are invested in all cryptos and it is completely equal for you whatever happens between them from then on.

2b. To make it sane, employ a lower threshold such as only buy the alts that are minimum $10M marketcap AND rising vs. BTC.

3. DRK is not getting interesting at this moment. It has just undergone a pump with price 20-doubling. It was interesting in the beginning of this, similarly as BlackCoin. I would rather short DRK due to momentum considerations now (although this may change).

4. If BTC is bought to immediately buy DRK, it has no net effect to BTC price.

Darkcoin started  life as xcoin on January 18th with 80mil max coins then was  re-branded Xcoin XCO, then later to Darkcoin and max supply reduced to 22mil.
The dev is very sorry that he sits on 2 million instamined coins because the block rewards were "erroneously" set to 500 instead of 50. Currently 4.3mil are mined.
No Windows-qt or Mac wallet on launch and no pools.
Early google searches of "Darkcoin", lead you to a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT coin with a total coin count of something like 100,000,000,000,000,000 units and an abandoned thread.
Darkcoin fraudulently claims to be the first anonymous coin, it is not, Bytecoin is it for 2 years already.
https://bytecoin.org/about-privacy.php

How a coin with this parameters can rise as it did is nothing short of astonishing. Will Monero archive something similar with no pre-mine and better anonymity than Darkcoin?

The key feature of DRK, anonymity, is also its greatest weakness for going mainstream. You have seen how hostile governments have been to just Bitcoin, which transactions can be traced in. Now imagine DRK popping up into the mainstream, do you think governments will sit idle and let businesses accept it? Some might, others will clamp down even harder than they did with Bitcoin. Countries that are friendly to Bitcoin now might not be friendly to a coin that has money laundering built right into it. Yes, a government can't stop the protocol, but they can stop businesses from accepting it by making the use illegal. Most likely, this would not be hard to achieve as they could simply make the argument the main use of the coin is for money laundering. If they made it illegal, it won't stop it being used on the black markets, but it will stop it from ever going mainstream because everyday businesses simply aren't going to break the law to allow a new payment method. So its growth potential would probably be limited to the black market. I don't think you would ever see Amazon or any big company using it, because of the backlash and the government crackdowns.

Licensed regulated exchanges will come, so its feasible a licences exchange can only trade licences 'approved' coins.
Right now the cryptoworld is the wild wild west and things move to fast for regulators to catch up, it wont always be like that.

The main pump right now is from ill-gotten Bitcoins.

[darlidada]

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen!  I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

So...do you usually talk about Risto with your friends? 

Man, next time your bros and you organize a party tell me please, it must be crazy! 

Hahahahaha.. LOL.. was thinking the same..

"So.. there is this guy called Rpietila on the bitcointalk forum where i hang out.. but from now on we'll call him Risto for convenience.. well anyhoo..."

Sounds a good party.. can I get an invite too?

Aw, come on guys.  You guys KNOW that you would LOVE that party.  Otherwise you wouldn't be hanging out in his thread.

Thank you !!! Who doesnt like to talk about the bitcoin knight and his new castle ? or about the norwegian 5$ sandwich story which turned into a 1M flat ?  Seriously folks, this is the kind of story that makes people interested in bitcoin.

[bassclef]

1. Altcoins have not really gained relative to BTC in the last months. They still account for only 9% of the total market cap. If this number rises to more than 20%, I would start to consider them. Otherwise no need.

I've played the altcoin market recently. What you basically do is guess which coin is going to get pumped next--either by analyzing the micro-accumulation and price suppression by whales, or by having insider information, or by jumping onboard early during the pump. Then you wait, sometimes weeks, watching the markets like a hawk, hoping you were right and the coin doesn't go to zero. Then you exit once the pump begins, hopefully before the whales decide to.

It's a pump & dump game, no more, no less. Inexperienced traders will get eaten alive.

[JHammer]

1. Altcoins have not really gained relative to BTC in the last months. They still account for only 9% of the total market cap. If this number rises to more than 20%, I would start to consider them. Otherwise no need.

I've played the altcoin market recently. What you basically do is guess which coin is going to get pumped next--either by analyzing the micro-accumulation and price suppression by whales, or by having insider information, or by jumping onboard early during the pump. Then you wait, sometimes weeks, watching the markets like a hawk, hoping you were right and the coin doesn't go to zero. Then you exit once the pump begins, hopefully before the whales decide to.

It's a pump & dump game, no more, no less. Inexperienced traders will get eaten alive.

That is why I just mine them into BTC   

[pinky]

2b. To make it sane, employ a lower threshold such as only buy the alts that are minimum $10M marketcap AND rising vs. BTC.

Maybe you should add to this rule the "test of time" - without it you are chasing hype and you are left with useless coins and the creators/miners have your bitcoins. There are only a few altcoins older than 12 months and hundreds of them less than 6 months.

After each bubble capital is searching for protection and/or more gains and now this can be seen in altcoins. After April 2013 crash we saw great capital pouring into miner stocks and guess how many of them are still operational? Very few and much cheaper.

There is no real competitor yet, only a hype. But this is good, because it helps with redistribution of bitcoins and it only reinforce bitcoins as the keystone. Beside this people are actually trying to find creative solutions in order to get more bitcoins via altcoin redistribution and this makes us all richer with new knowledge and awareness.