rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[manfred]

Darkcoin, in the first days and first couple of weeks after its launch, someone, was dumping 50,000 coins a piece for pennies per coin on the exchanges and people further complained for months about strong Darkcoin selling that kept the price extremely cheap for months after launch.

lol, Instamineing and then mining on low difficulty for half a year to gather coins and selling the instamind coins to yourself to keep the price down, then creating a huge fake volume to get everyone's attention to kick start the rally was a clever peace of work, no question about that one. 
10 accounts hold over 1 quarter of all coins and less than 1000 have 90% of all coins.

[wachtwoord]

Wow, this thread turned into an altcoin thread.

[dnaleor]

Let's say you have BTC100 and want to hedge your fortunes. By buying 100 MRO you have an equal % of that coin (strictly speaking it depends how many years into the future you look at and how many BTC were lost in the early days). Buying less or not at all means that you don't consider MRO having credibility (it's OK, I just trashed 270 other coins), buying more means that you feel that MRO has more potential than BTC, and want it to succeed, even at BTC's expense.

Hi Risto!

Great to hear that you invested your first BTC in altcoin and choose MRO.
I didn't own much altcoins until a few weeks ago. I discovered MRO and decided to invest. If I would sell my MRO now, it would be 25% of my crypto holdings. I am planning to use your SSS plan to cash out slowly in BTC to reduce the exposure to 10%

Why 10%?

I don't agree with your statement above. I really think BTC will stay as market leader. The governments will ultimatly see that they better just allow Bitcoin because of the "transparant nature". They will likely NOT want to suppress BTC because they KNOW that a more anonymous coin would be very popular in that situation.

I think privacy coins will be a niche market, and MRO could be the market leader in that market. The question is, how big will this market be. My estimation, for now, is 10%. So I will try to lower my exposure to 10% by slowly cashing out some MRO into BTC.


again, congratz with your investment!

[eat_more_fruit]

Speaking of alts, any opinion on SlipperySlope's proposed hard fork?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=584719.0;all

[kodtycoon]

im really sorry for posting this if you see it as spam..

nem has 3000 stake holders and very few sock puppets due to weeks of taint analysis. nem tokens are just about to be launched on nxt AE and highest bid at the moment is 18000 nxt or 1.3 btc per stake.. theres one buy order in for 40 stakes(1% of all coins) at 10,000 nxt each.. and its at that price before a white paper, alpha release, logo or client or marketing what so ever.. literally nothing released to prove its not a scam other then around 35 devs working on it, some thinking of quitting their jobs to work on nem, and many of which are long time btt users. its written from scratch and will use a newly coded algo (PoI or proof of importance(to the network) along side proof of stake)

at current valuation, its top 20 market cap with no white paper, no software released, no open alpha, no client other then screen shots, no logo and zero marketing. monero hasnt got a patch on nem.

[Arghhh]

WTF dude, I came here for BITCOIN TA.
It is fucking spam. Cut this altcoin shit out.

[kodtycoon]

some one linked to reptilia give info and what he thought of alt coins.. thought it included alts.. sorry

[Peter R]

MRO (Monero)
Okay, there was a reason why I wrote on alts. Cause I have just made my first altcoin investment ever!

You're going to need a "rpietila alt-coin observer thread" now  

As usual, I agree with all your points.  The majority of (and possible all) alt-coins serve no useful purpose.  They are dead coins walking.  The market will select the best payment network run from the most legitimate ledger.  Right now the best payment network is the Bitcoin Network and the most legitimate ledger is the Blockchain.  If, in the distant future, a superior payment technology is identified, the Blockchain Ledger will be forked or spun-off to this new technology.  There will never be a need to "panic trade" out of the bitcoin ledger and into some foo-coin ledger.  Value is stored in the Blockchain Ledger and not in the technology.

The fact that you mentioned Monero (MRO) is interesting.  The current narrative in the alt-coin community is "privacy," which was further reinforced by Darkcoin's recent moon shot.  But Darkcoin was illegitimately pre-mined insta-mined, has closed-source binaries, is not technologically innovative, and has a volatility-enhancing block reward equation¹.  Darkcoin will likely collapse, some will call it a scam, and others will say they shouldn't have invested in something they didn't understand.

But like Satoshi said, "we are pattern-seeking story-telling animals."  The privacy narrative will remain, and in an effort to avoid the pitfalls of Darkcoin, Monero may appear as the legitimate alternative.  Monero is an open-source clone of Bytecoin so the technology has a track record.  Unlike Bytecoin (which is now 80% mined), only 930,000 of the eventual 18.4 million coins have been mined, so the distribution appears more legitimate.  Experts such as Greg Maxwell consider the ring-signature approach "top notch," and it seems that more and more people keep talking about it.  And with this post now I am one of those people lol.

However, the fact that Monero has a fairly high inflation rate (which is needed for legitimacy unless the spin-off technique is employed) may preclude it from making a Blackcoin / Darkcoin-type moon shot.  

On a final note, I think people speculating in alt-coins should look at it more like short-term human psychology analysis rather than long-term investing.  I worry that a lot of the people in the Darkcoin, Blackcoin, XRP, Nxt, etc. threads over-estimate the long-term potential.  


¹The Darkcoin block reward decreases with increasing network hashrate and increases with decreasing network hashrate.  This tends to further limit new coin supply during rallies (adding to the pump), and increase new coin supply when miners have lost interest (adding to the dump).

[AlexGR]

The fact that you mentioned Monero (MRO) is interesting.  The current narrative in the alt-coin community is "privacy," which was further reinforced by Darkcoin's recent moon shot.  But Darkcoin was illegitimately pre-mined, has closed-source binaries, is not technologically innovative, and has a volatility-enhancing block reward equation¹.  Darkcoin will likely collapse, some will call it a scam, and others will say they shouldn't have invested in something they didn't understand.

1. There was ZERO premine. The argument is about the fairness of the distribution to the first miners who got a disproportionate amount of coins. Yet, precisely because of this factor, they sold them for pennies because they didn't value them, hence the distribution was one of the best among altcoins (until the heavy accumulation phase in April/May).
2. Darkcoin is opensource. Those who want to use DarkSend can opt for the binary. DarkSend source will be opensourced in a month or so, after being finalized (RC status).
3. It is innovative as it covers a need that is not covered by existing transparent coins.
4. You too don't understand it, but claim that you do.
5. The whitepaper is old, the spec has evolved.

But like Satoshi said, "we are pattern-seeking story-telling animals."  The privacy narrative will remain, and in an effort to avoid the pitfalls of Darkcoin, Monero may appear as the legitimate alternative.  Monero is an open-source clone of Bytecoin so the technology has a track record.

It does not *really* have a track record because nobody actually used it en mass. It was like used by a few dozen people, unlike Bitcoin's blockchain which does have a track record.

Usability, scaling, basic functionality, interoperability - all have issues for mainstream adoption, and some stuff like scaling problems might render it DOA (dead on arrival). That's in addition to the fact that the dev team of MRO is not the team responsible for developing the back-end / core implementation and as such being less experienced to maintaining it.

On a final note, I think people speculating in alt-coins should look at it more like short-term human psychology analysis rather than long-term investing.  I worry that a lot of the people in the Darkcoin, Blackcoin, XRP, Nxt, etc. threads really believe those coins' ledgers have long-term potential.  

LTC has a 300mn marketcap and sitting where it is because of branding itself as the silver to bitcoin's gold.

DRK covers a real world need that LTC (or BTC) cannot cover. It is superior to LTC technologically, safer, more private, scarcer by a ratio of 1:7, has 1/10th inflation (2880 coins per day vs 28.800) and pays its users who allocated 1000 DRKs for running a supernode, for providing the anonymity service (Proof of Service).

There is no single reason why LTC should be higher than DRK in the long run. It seems like a dinosaur in comparison.

¹The Darkcoin block reward decreases with increasing network hashrate and increases with decreasing network hashrate.  This tends to further limit new coin supply during rallies (adding to the pump), and increase new coin supply when miners have lost interest (adding to the dump).

Minimum block reward 5, so after a point it can't go lower. It's not proportional to the pump.

Unfortunately, there's too much misunderstanding regarding Darkcoin. Big investors have made their homework, apparently, but some people are quick to judge without knowing the facts.

http://wiki.darkcoin.eu
http://wiki.darkcoin.eu/wiki/FAQ

...for info.

[frienemy]

DRK covers a real world need that LTC (or BTC) cannot cover. It is superior to LTC technologically, safer, more private, scarcer by a ratio of 1:7, has 1/10th inflation (2880 coins per day vs 28.800) and pays its users who allocated 1000 DRKs for running a supernode, for providing the anonymity service (Proof of Service).

In which world does an inflation of 2,880 vs. 28,800 equal one tenth, when something is scarcer by a ratio of 1:7

[wachtwoord]

DRK covers a real world need that LTC (or BTC) cannot cover. It is superior to LTC technologically, safer, more private, scarcer by a ratio of 1:7, has 1/10th inflation (2880 coins per day vs 28.800) and pays its users who allocated 1000 DRKs for running a supernode, for providing the anonymity service (Proof of Service).

In which world does an inflation of 2,880 vs. 28,800 equal one tenth, when something is scarcer by a ratio of 1:7

An insane one. The world of pumped altcoins.

[AlexGR]

DRK covers a real world need that LTC (or BTC) cannot cover. It is superior to LTC technologically, safer, more private, scarcer by a ratio of 1:7, has 1/10th inflation (2880 coins per day vs 28.800) and pays its users who allocated 1000 DRKs for running a supernode, for providing the anonymity service (Proof of Service).

In which world does an inflation of 2,880 vs. 28,800 equal one tenth, when something is scarcer by a ratio of 1:7

I'm comparing absolute numbers for inflation but your point is valid when you add both these facts together.

In terms of economics, the real point in altcoin inflation is this: How many USD are required per day to buy your daily supply.

LTC: 28.800 x 11$ = 316k USD
DRK: 2.880 x 12$ = 34k USD

Over a year, LTC will require 115mn USD to preserve its price (or 57.5m USD if miners hold 50% of their mining).

Over a year, DRK will require 12.4mn USD to preserve its price (or 6.2m USD if miners hold 50% of their mining). Even if DRK quadruples in price it'll still have a low requirement of 50m USD / 25m USD for 100% selloff and 50% selloff.

[windjc]

The fact that you mentioned Monero (MRO) is interesting.  The current narrative in the alt-coin community is "privacy," which was further reinforced by Darkcoin's recent moon shot.  But Darkcoin was illegitimately pre-mined, has closed-source binaries, is not technologically innovative, and has a volatility-enhancing block reward equation¹.  Darkcoin will likely collapse, some will call it a scam, and others will say they shouldn't have invested in something they didn't understand.

1. There was ZERO premine. The argument is about the fairness of the distribution to the first miners who got a disproportionate amount of coins. Yet, precisely because of this factor, they sold them for pennies because they didn't value them, hence the distribution was one of the best among altcoins (until the heavy accumulation phase in April/May).
2. Darkcoin is opensource. Those who want to use DarkSend can opt for the binary. DarkSend source will be opensourced in a month or so, after being finalized (RC status).
3. It is innovative as it covers a need that is not covered by existing transparent coins.
4. You too don't understand it, but claim that you do.
5. The whitepaper is old, the spec has evolved.

But like Satoshi said, "we are pattern-seeking story-telling animals."  The privacy narrative will remain, and in an effort to avoid the pitfalls of Darkcoin, Monero may appear as the legitimate alternative.  Monero is an open-source clone of Bytecoin so the technology has a track record.

It does not *really* have a track record because nobody actually used it en mass. It was like used by a few dozen people, unlike Bitcoin's blockchain which does have a track record.

Usability, scaling, basic functionality, interoperability - all have issues for mainstream adoption, and some stuff like scaling problems might render it DOA (dead on arrival). That's in addition to the fact that the dev team of MRO is not the team responsible for developing the back-end / core implementation and as such being less experienced to maintaining it.

On a final note, I think people speculating in alt-coins should look at it more like short-term human psychology analysis rather than long-term investing.  I worry that a lot of the people in the Darkcoin, Blackcoin, XRP, Nxt, etc. threads really believe those coins' ledgers have long-term potential.  

LTC has a 300mn marketcap and sitting where it is because of branding itself as the silver to bitcoin's gold.

DRK covers a real world need that LTC (or BTC) cannot cover. It is superior to LTC technologically, safer, more private, scarcer by a ratio of 1:7, has 1/10th inflation (2880 coins per day vs 28.800) and pays its users who allocated 1000 DRKs for running a supernode, for providing the anonymity service (Proof of Service).

There is no single reason why LTC should be higher than DRK in the long run. It seems like a dinosaur in comparison.

¹The Darkcoin block reward decreases with increasing network hashrate and increases with decreasing network hashrate.  This tends to further limit new coin supply during rallies (adding to the pump), and increase new coin supply when miners have lost interest (adding to the dump).

Minimum block reward 5, so after a point it can't go lower. It's not proportional to the pump.

Unfortunately, there's too much misunderstanding regarding Darkcoin. Big investors have made their homework, apparently, but some people are quick to judge without knowing the facts.

http://wiki.darkcoin.eu
http://wiki.darkcoin.eu/wiki/FAQ

...for info.

Hey Alex,

I will make a 10-50 BTC bet with you that Darkcoin will be <$6 sometime in the next 3 weeks?

Let me know if you are interested.

[Peter R]

...

The obsession with protocol-enforced privacy is the new narrative.  You've drunk the koolaid and now you "want to believe."

Even ignoring all its flaws, Darkcoin will not see widespread adoption simply based on the fact that its "darkness" was not designed to appeal to the masses.  It was designed to appeal to you.  Monero will very likely not see widespread adoption either, but after the collapse of Darkcoin, it could be the logical and more legitimate continuation of the "privacy-enhanced coin" line of thought.  Although I am no fan of alt coins, if someone held a gun to my head and made me buy one, I'd pick Monero.  And when that gun is pointing the other way and people start talking about Monero's long-term potential for mass appeal, I'd trade everything I have back for bitcoin.

[windjc]

...

The obsession with protocol-enforced privacy is the new narrative.  You've drunk the koolaid and now you "want to believe."

Even ignoring all its flaws, Darkcoin will not see widespread adoption simply based on the fact that its "darkness" was not designed to appeal to the masses.  It was designed to appeal to you.  Monero will very likely not see widespread adoption either, but after the collapse of Darkcoin, it could be the logical and more legitimate continuation of the "privacy-enhanced coin" line of thought.  Although I am no fan of alt coins, if someone held a gun to my head and made me buy one, I'd pick Monero.  And when that gun is pointing the other way and people start talking about Monero's long-term potential for mass appeal, I'd trade everything I have back for bitcoin.

I purchase a wise 10 btc of MRO yesterday off exchange for .00575.  I also think "privacy" will always (or for a long time) be an attractive narrative. And MRO beats DRK hands down when it comes to privacy. DRK is also a bitcoin alt, which has several disadvantages long term - although short term makes it 100xs easier to pump and dump.

I wish I could short DRK right now. Of course, I wish I would have scooped up 100k+ of it before it went to exchanges, but I just don't have time to research and monitor every fracking altcoin that gets born, to find the ones with the most potential to pump.

[AlexGR]

For the bet: I'm not a betting guy anymore.

For DRK vs MRO, have you actually tried using MRO?

Please go right now, download the client and try using it. See what it is, how it works etc. Come back and report your findings.

Even ignoring all its flaws, Darkcoin will not see widespread adoption simply based on the fact that its "darkness" was not designed to appeal to the masses.

That's the thing.

Even if it's outside 90% of the mainstream, with just 10% of transaction going private/anonymous, it will still appeal to a 700mn marketcap.

[windjc]

For the bet: I'm not a betting guy anymore.

For DRK vs MRO, have you actually tried using MRO?

Please go right now, download the client and try using it. See what it is, how it works etc. Come back and report your findings.

Even ignoring all its flaws, Darkcoin will not see widespread adoption simply based on the fact that its "darkness" was not designed to appeal to the masses.

That's the thing.

Even if it's outside 90% of the mainstream, with just 10% of transaction going private/anonymous, it will still appeal to a 700mn marketcap.

SERIOUSLY? That is your criticism of MRO? That it doesn't have a working client? LOL. That. Is. The. Time. To. Buy.

The time to buy DRK was when it didnt have a working client and people were selling it off exchange for 20k DRK for .45 BTC.  The time to buy DRK is NOT NOW, when its been pumped and it officially launches tomorrow which means the price will CRASH in the next day or so.

$14.50 was the high for DRK - and it might be months, years, or forever before it gets there again. 

An alt has to find utility to rise after a pump and dump. Maybe DRK will. But most don't.

[cAPSLOCK]

Hey Alex,

I will make a 10-50 BTC bet with you that Darkcoin will be <$6 sometime in the next 3 weeks?

Let me know if you are interested.

Popcorn.gif

For what it's worth this discussion of alt coins is useful, I think.  It is one of the biggest unknowns in the Bitcoin universe and worth exploring.

As an aside last week I bought a small stake in both Darkcoin and Monero.  The more due diligence I did the more Darkcoin I sold and shifted to Monero.   I was almost shocked to see this come up in this thread, and am living proof of the privacy narrative being a motivator for speculation.

[darlidada]

For the bet: I'm not a betting guy anymore.

LOL. If you really believed what you were saying, you would have immediately his DRK under 6$ within 3 weeks' bet. I wish I could short DRK too for what its worth. If I were you I would just sell everything asap and convert your gains into MRO. You seem emotionnally attached to Darkcoin and that prevents you to do the best investment. It's the fastest path to financial ruin. It also prevents you to use logic in order to reason with us since you think we are hyping a coin whereas we just think it's the one that has the best value at the moment out of all the privacy coins in the market.

Anyway, you just lost all your credibility when you refused his bet. Though I would think your best move would be to leave this thread quietly so people forget about you, I think as the idiot you are you will stay and try to justify your idiocy and thus keep derailing this thread.

[AlexGR]

SERIOUSLY? That is your criticism of MRO? That it doesn't have a working client? LOL. That. Is. The. Time. To. Buy.

Buy all you want. I've bought prior to you so you are actually doing good to me

The time to buy DRK was when it didnt have a working client and people were selling it off exchange for 20k DRK for .45 BTC.

Dark always had a working client. And by working, we mean like Bitcoin-QT stuff.

Monero guys took the backend of Bytecoin and couldn't even make a front-end. They issued a bounty. This is not confidence-inspiring stuff for maintaining a complex blockchain which is new and untested. If you don't realize that on your own, then let me reference you:

Bytecoin was forked into a coin that the community could participate in from day one.

Alas, none of the bugs or short comings were fixed in doing that— and it doesn't appear that any of the people involved in it have the background for the low level work. So you might have just written out the only active developers of the software, may not bode well for continued development.

That's what happens when the coin is a clone. However everyone is like "oh, litecoin was a clone too so that one might work, who knows". Maybe it does. That's why I hedged DRK with MRO. If both succeed, why not.

The time to buy DRK is NOT NOW, when its been pumped and it officially launches tomorrow which means the price will CRASH in the next day or so.

You don't understand what you are talking about. There is no "culmination" tomorrow in the form of a launch. It's just the next release, followed by the next release. Today it's RC2 fork which adds masternode payments, then comes RC3 with denomination changes and anonymity enhancements.