rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[zimmah]

This will be my last post on altcoin in this thread, so as not to divert the thread away from it's intended purposes.

Due to popular interest for both guarding this thread as a Bitcoin thread, and having a quality altcoin discussion, the Altcoin Observer is now in a different thread. Please continue there. For some time now, all posts mentioning altcoins in this thread will be deleted, so that you can post them in the right thread.

In the new Altcoin Observer, deletion/ban results for posts whose only purpose is to bring attention to a shitcoin or to pump a pump&dumpcoin.

Thank you

[zimmah]

2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

[drawingthesun]

2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

That went a little over my head. How do you define trend? Is it a certain price level over a certain time interval?

[Sicarius1985]

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

Do you have a graph of this logtrend? I would like to see this. Thanks.

[wachtwoord]

2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

How come? Our trendlines are pretty much the same, and he is selling at +0.4 and I am at +0.45, which are $5+

(We are still at -0.35 if anyone thought that the rally is getting exhausted. No, it has hardly climbed to one knee so far.)

This depends whether you want to sell at an overvaluation (so at +0.001) or at a significant overvaluation.

[BitchicksHusband]

2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

We typically go far above the model before the bubble crashes.

[zimmah]

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

Do you have a graph of this logtrend? I would like to see this. Thanks.

I was refering to the graph made by slipperyslope. here's a spreadsheet, i believe it updates automatically. If the chart is +0.4 log10 units above trend (the second tab), it's time to think about selling. (i'd expect the trend to be around 3.25~3.50 by that time (depends a little on when the bubble really takes off), so 3.65~3.90 would be a selling point. 10^3.65 = $4466 and 10^3.9 = $7943

For reference, the chart predicts a trend of 3.25 at July 1 and 3.5 around September or so. It takes about 3 weeks after 'hitting' the trend and hitting the peak.

So i expect the price to be anywhere between $4466 and $7943 before it returns to around $2500. This is based only on the logistic chart. I could get a more refined analysis if i also include other things.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

[BitchicksHusband]

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

Do you have a graph of this logtrend? I would like to see this. Thanks.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

[Broseph Stalin]

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

So if you were wondering how Bitcoin suddenly appreciated in value by a factor of 10 within the span of one month, well, this is why. Not Chinese investors, not the Silkroad bust – these events may have contributed, but they certainly were not the main reason.

If this was the cause of the last 2 rallies, and the 234 days between them.. where does that leave us?
Makes me question if we will have another parabolic rise. Not that I would mind slow and steady appreciation either.

Any theory about a July rally because of the 234 days goes out the door. No longer valid.

[Bagatell]

Any theory about a July rally because of the 234 days goes out the door. No longer valid.

So?

[Broseph Stalin]

Any theory about a July rally because of the 234 days goes out the door. No longer valid.

So?

If people are expecting a July rally and pre-emptively buying... but there is no July rally. Down we go.

[zimmah]

we don't need bots, we don't need gox.

as can seen by the charts in the article, the bot trades were just noise on the charts, they hardly affected the price, unless i interpret them wrong, the charts look more like modern art than real charts.

[Broseph Stalin]

we don't need bots, we don't need gox.

hopefully. fingers crossed etc.

[Todorius]

we don't need bots, we don't need gox.

as can seen by the charts in the article, the bot trades were just noise on the charts, they hardly affected the price, unless i interpret them wrong, the charts look more like modern art than real charts.

Agreed. Also, what a convenient timing to release that report.
I thin someone doesn't want a rally to happen this summer, for whatever reason. I think the author of this report greatly underestimates the psychology of the masses.
Attribute the two 2013 bubbles only to the Willy bot and insider fraudulent trading at Mt Gox, is a bit over the top. This guy clearly has an intention.

Since bitcoins market cap is still so low, bubbles are a NATURAL thing to happen, coming straight out of the physics of the underlying system, which in this case is the bitcoin ecosystem combined with mass psychology.

We'll have a few more BTC bubbles even without Gox Bots and fake orders
The author of that report has some wishful thinking.

[BitChick]

we don't need bots, we don't need gox.

We do not need them, we don't need stocks.

We don't need them here or there, we don't need them anywhere

We do not like the China Ban, We do not like them Sam I am. 

(I think I have read too many Dr. Suess books with my kids I guess! )

[Broseph Stalin]

The author of that report has some wishful thinking.

Or you do. Time will tell I guess.
He did mention in the report that he waited to release it until now because he didn't want to collapse the price even more.. now that we're moving up naturally, it was safer.

[Todorius]

The author of that report has some wishful thinking.

Or you do. Time will tell I guess.
He did mention in the report that he waited to release it until now because he didn't want to collapse the price even more.. now that we're moving up naturally, it was safer.

I might be wrong of course.
I for one believe that despite this, there will be bubbles to come, sparked by major bullish news. Or just by adoption and panic buying surges. We'll see

[birr]

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

Note that in the the last two bubbles, the price when the run-up crossed the trend line was very nearly equal to the price at the bottom of the subsequent slump.  
This means that if the repeating bubble pattern holds, the point at which the run-up crosses the trend line is the earliest point at which it's possible to start unwinding your long position without making yourself worse off than you would be if you adopted a permanent holding long strategy.  Some people advise holding as the most sensible approach, but as we've seen, BTC gets severely overpriced at times, so the permanent hold strategy is too conservative, and will actually increase your risk at certain times.  I think it might be a good idea to start selling small amounts as soon as we cross above the trend line.
If you have faith that this bubble will hit the same max with respect to the exponential trend as the last two bubbles did, then you can wait until Bitcoin is heavily overvalued to sell.  But the idea that we are going to have a carbon copy of the last two bubbles strikes me as a little fishy.  It's lax thinking.

[BitchicksHusband]

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

So if you were wondering how Bitcoin suddenly appreciated in value by a factor of 10 within the span of one month, well, this is why. Not Chinese investors, not the Silkroad bust – these events may have contributed, but they certainly were not the main reason.

If this was the cause of the last 2 rallies, and the 234 days between them.. where does that leave us?
Makes me question if we will have another parabolic rise. Not that I would mind slow and steady appreciation either.

Any theory about a July rally because of the 234 days goes out the door. No longer valid.

Actually, 234 days since the last ATH is July 20th.  So it's not out the door at all.  Rather, it's right on schedule.

[explorer]

The previous 'bubbles' ended when the price was at exactly +0.47 log units above trend.

I'd advice selling between +0.4 and +0.45 log units above trend, depending on how much risk/reward you like to see.

The lowest points between the tops has been mostly -0.45 or so below trend. So that would be a good point to rebuy.

What the price is exactly depends on what time we are at, as the log price increases every day.

If the bubble hits when I think it will hit, rptiela is spot on with his $5000 claim. But I'll make my decision on the log units mostly, and absolute price only secondarily, and of course my own TA charts.

Note that in the the last two bubbles, the price when the run-up crossed the trend line was very nearly equal to the price at the bottom of the subsequent slump.  
This means that if the repeating bubble pattern holds, the point at which the run-up crosses the trend line is the earliest point at which it's possible to start unwinding your long position without making yourself worse off than you would be if you adopted a permanent holding long strategy.  Some people advise holding as the most sensible approach, but as we've seen, BTC gets severely overpriced at times, so the permanent hold strategy is too conservative, and will actually increase your risk at certain times.  I think it might be a good idea to start selling small amounts as soon as we cross above the trend line.
If you have faith that this bubble will hit the same max with respect to the exponential trend as the last two bubbles did, then you can wait until Bitcoin is heavily overvalued to sell.  But the idea that we are going to have a carbon copy of the last two bubbles strikes me as a little fishy.  It's lax thinking.

Then you must also consider another option: the one where you kick yourself for selling early in fear, and it just keeps going up 2011 style.  holding balances that risk