rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[BTCtrader71]

There is no spoon

[1714681393]

1714681393

[1714681393]

1714681393

[1714681393]

1714681393

[SlipperySlope]

There is no spoon

Indeed.

There is no intrinsic value.

[healthandwealth]

I believe

Like my signature.  It's not a matter of if.  It's a matter of when.

[SlipperySlope]

The short term triangle I present below lacks the drama and importance of the recently broken trendline down from the November 2013 peak. I suppose that it will break out to the upside in a day or two. Or conversely drop down to test $550 again.

My logistic model trendline value is $1404 rising over $10 each day.

This is the 2-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp drawn with BitcoinWisdom . . .

[healthandwealth]

The short term triangle I present below lacks the drama and importance of the recently broken trendline down from the November 2013 peak. I suppose that it will break out to the upside in a day or two. Or conversely drop down to test $550 again.

My logistic model trendline value is $1404 rising over $10 each day.

This is the 2-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp drawn with BitcoinWisdom . . .

I see.  I would have to think a retracement lower will happen prior to another jump up to and beyond $600.  But we shall see. 

Now...your 'logistic model trendline value' of $1404...is this number a forecast for a future date?

[SlipperySlope]

I see.  I would have to think a retracement lower will happen prior to another jump up to and beyond $600.  But we shall see.  

Now...your 'logistic model trendline value' of $1404...is this number a forecast for a future date?

No it is simply the trendline value, in red below, for this date. The model is here. Note that I simply guessed at a maximum price of $1 million at full adoption.

[wachtwoord]

I see.  I would have to think a retracement lower will happen prior to another jump up to and beyond $600.  But we shall see.  

Now...your 'logistic model trendline value' of $1404...is this number a forecast for a future date?

No it is simply the trendline value, in red below, for this date. The model is here. Note that I simply guessed at a maximum price of $1 million at full adoption.

But it's important to note that for the point we are right now, a $30k terminal value would not really change the position of the trend line we're at.

[BTCtrader71]

There is no spoon

Indeed.

There is no intrinsic value.

Oh now I wouldn't go THAT far, lol  ...


On a more serious note ...

The question of intrinsic value of bitcoin is an interesting one, and I think it depends on the definition of "intrinsic," which deserves scrutiny, and probably varies on the context.

With respect to gold, I think of intrinsic value as the value it would have if you could somehow strip away its use as a currency (durability, divisibility, portability, scarcity, interchangeability, etc) but still retain its other uses, ie industrial uses, jewelry, whatever else you can do with it.

So when you talk about intrinsic value, you're playing a what-if game. For example: What if the mt gox bots had never been implemented to jack up the price in 2013? In that case, the "intrinsic value" of bitcoin might only be yadda yadda. But that's not the only what-if game we can play. More specifically, it's not the only relevant what-if game we can play. What if the mt gox bots had not been implemented, AND what if mt gox had not been robbed of BTC1M in 2011, with those coins being dumped on the market for a good long time after the theft? But why stop there? What if none of the myriad of thefts throughout bitcoin history had ever occurred? What if no body throughout bitcoin history had ever lost any private keys?

The logistic model is not a model about bitcoin; it is a model of humans interacting with bitcoin. According to the model, the price is roughly proportional to the number of people who understand bitcoin, individually weighted by how well they understand it, how much confidence they have in it, how much money they have to invest. Maybe a few other factors thrown in there. Price is exponential because those things grow exponentially.

Of course, there's lots of superimposed noise on top of that very simple model. The noise is caused by all sorts of things -- good news, bad news, random things we'll never hear about. So here's the question: which of those things do we consider to be external to the "true" value of bitcoin? To use just one example: Do we tell ourselves that if mtgox never ran its bots, then the price would be closer to the "intrinsic" value? If that's extrinsic, then do we consider all occurrences of theft and/or deception to be extrinsic? Some of them? Which ones?

I think there is no single way to define intrinsic value of bitcoin; there are multiple ways, depending on what we are asking: what aspect of human behaviour we are trying to model and on what question we are trying to answer.

The meaning of intrinsic changes when we ask different questions.

So what I'm really trying to say is .... there are lots of spoons.

[BitchicksHusband]

Ah you're talking about an upwards "correction".

No, I'm talking about something like this (worst case. I think it's plausible that the correction would not go as low as 534 USD)




edit: another possibility is that we follow the same pattern as in the summer of 2013: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7II22g4/
In  that case, we might stabilize around the current price area for the next few weeks: between 580 and 620 USD

If we are bubbling, then we should see about $100-$150 a week until we reach $900-$1100 and then take off on a vertical.  Even during the quick rises, we may have a couple days of stalls.  But if we continue to stall throughout the first couple weeks of June, the bubble will either be late or not at all until something big happens.

So when do you expect the bubble to peak, BitchicksHusband?

I don't want to speak for my husband, but he told me that he expects the peak to be late July, as do many on here.  I would love to say "You were right!" on this one!  (some things are not quite as enjoyable to say that about! )

I have a hard time believing it can be this predictable, but so far it is following the pattern pretty closely.

July 20th is 234 days.  The last 3 peaks have been 234 days apart twice.  So far, we are on target for that date, but if we keep slipping we won't be.

[JorgeStofli]

Smoke Crack! Worship Satan! Buy Bitcoin!

[molecular]

cross-post from wall-thread (since this is clearly quality TA):

I present the Matroska Cup & Handle pattern:

[frienemy]

cross-post from wall-thread (since this is clearly quality TA):

I present the Matroska Cup & Handle pattern:

I have noticed this pattern of "stackable" cup and handles as a true possibility a while ago, too. Last year we already used the term "mother of all cup and handles. What would we use this year?

[MahaRamana]

I have noticed this pattern of "stackable" cup and handles as a true possibility a while ago, too. Last year we already used the term "mother of all cup and handles. What would we use this year?

Grandmother ?

[wachtwoord]

The short term triangle I present below lacks the drama and importance of the recently broken trendline down from the November 2013 peak. I suppose that it will break out to the upside in a day or two. Or conversely drop down to test $550 again.

My logistic model trendline value is $1404 rising over $10 each day.

This is the 2-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp drawn with BitcoinWisdom . . .

Did we break out of this wedge to the downside?

[Dotto]

Pretty newbie question:

I listen sometimes this "slippage" or "slipping" concept. Could you sketch it in one or two lines?

Thanks

[ErisDiscordia]

Pretty newbie question:

I listen sometimes this "slippage" or "slipping" concept. Could you sketch it in one or two lines?

Thanks

There are two types of orders you can execute on exchanges: limit orders and market orders.

A limit order is a standing order saying you will buy X amount of what is being traded for a price of Y - For example: an order to buy 10BTC at a price of 500$. Then you wait for someone to take your offer and fill it/part of it.

A market order is just pressing "buy/sell" for a certain amount of currency at whatever the market rate happens to be at the moment. What happens when you press "market buy Bitcoin" for 10,000$ is that you buy up the currently cheapest limit orders for selling bitcoin (the "ask orders").

If you are doing a large market order it might happen to you that in order for it to get filled, it won't "consume" only the cheapest limit orders but will have to go for progressively more expensive standing limit orders in order to get fully filled. Such an action will actually move the market price up. This is what is known as slippage. If your market order which you placed when the current market rate is 500$/BTC eats up all the standing limit orders until 510$/BTC then the slippage of your buy has been 10$.

A good place to see the "walls" the limit orders are forming is Bitcoinity - the bottom chart. For explanations click "WTF?" in the upper right corner.

[molecular]

Pretty newbie question:

I listen sometimes this "slippage" or "slipping" concept. Could you sketch it in one or two lines?

Thanks

It's when you use a market order and don't get the "current best bid/ask price" when buying/selling something, but a less favorable one because in the process you're eating up all the asks/bids on the order book.

Slippage is higher when liquidity is lower. To avoid slippage, one can try buying/selling repeatedly in lower amounts over a period of time, risking the market getting away during the process.

[TERA]

I see.  I would have to think a retracement lower will happen prior to another jump up to and beyond $600.  But we shall see.  

Now...your 'logistic model trendline value' of $1404...is this number a forecast for a future date?

No it is simply the trendline value, in red below, for this date. The model is here. Note that I simply guessed at a maximum price of $1 million at full adoption.

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

[wachtwoord]

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

Bitcoin never seizes to amaze

[Asrael999]

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

Bitcoin never seizes to amaze

Bitcoin doesn't have to reach full adoption to achieve its fullest value - it just has to look probable that it will, its all pricing expectations ultimately.
If $1,000,000 is full value then we are currently pricing in a 0.057% chance that this happens (EDIT: not entirely accurate, lets use very low probability instead), possibly a little low? or the market does not believe that $1,000,000 is really the final value, in which case move that trendline lower as it's location is entirely dependant on slipperyslopes' $1,000,000 assumption.