rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[wachtwoord]

$1M is not what the market believes. It's the best guess of Slippery Slope.

Anyway, move the final value to $30k if you like and the trendline would be on the same level as it is today.

[BitChick]

$1M is not what the market believes. It's the best guess of Slippery Slope.

Anyway, move the final value to $30k if you like and the trendline would be on the same level as it is today.

I think the $1M is just a good round number to make a chart with.  We don't really know what it will be when we reach full adoption.  We can guess and dream but only time will tell.

[bitcoinsrus]

$1M is not what the market believes. It's the best guess of Slippery Slope.

Anyway, move the final value to $30k if you like and the trendline would be on the same level as it is today.

I think the $1M is just a good round number to make a chart with.  We don't really know what it will be when we reach full adoption.  We can guess and dream but only time will tell.

As much as that sounds awesome, that means that the market cap (assuming most of the 21 million coins are in circulation by then) would be 21,000,000,000,000 (or 21 trillion).

I forgot where I heard about if BTC reaches 300k, that would be around gold standard.
To me, it seems mind boggling and might (or might not) go around those areas.

[edit]:  If bitcoin becomes international payment (around the world).  Seems more possible (then if it just stays mainly in one area (like China or US or something)

[AlexGR]

I forgot where I heard about if BTC reaches 300k, that would be around gold standard.
To me, it seems mind boggling and might (or might not) go around those areas.

Gold above ground: 180k tons
BTCs in circulation: ~12m (minus the lost ones)

Average ratio of gold per BTC = 15kg of gold for 1 BTC

By the same ratio, 1 BTC = 15kg of gold (in terms of scarcity) = 600k USD+ in terms of value per coin.

When you hear "wow, BTC overtook gold in price, this is outrageous" remember they are only talking about how BTC is more expensive than just 31.1grams of gold (troy ounce), when there are like 5.5 BILLION ounces above ground.

So 12mn BTCs vs 5.5 BILLION ounces of gold, yes, well, the BTCs are rarer, even as numismatics. It's the first trustless digital currency with mass appeal with much historic significance, like the first ancient coins out of gold, iron, silver etc.

Even if the currency for transaction is taken out of the equation, just the numismatics aspect can make them quite scarce - if only they had an appealing physical counterpart  / exceptional design (preferably at high relief). And I would rather have it in gold or platinum, sold at a low premium.

A mint could do that and have, say, 1 oz coins of precious metal PLUS one btc on them in physical form... and then sell them for like 1oz gold price + 2-5% minting price + BTC price at the time of sell + 10% margin for profit. If people go for excessive profit in this project, operation "distribute BTC" will fail. The point is to get a combined precious metal + bitcoin worth + rarity at a low premium.

Collectors and BTC enthusiasts will sweep them up big time, reducing liquidity and increasing BTC price - so it's a win-win, unless the feds want to raid a mint or something and take both gold + btcs

Even goldbugs and silverbugs who are "converts" to the BTC camp (and like both BTC + PMs) may pick some up. This market is producing millions of ounces in 1 oz rounds every year. If people got a few BTCs with these, it'd be epic.

Platinum coins should be 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 5oz per coin and have 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 5 BTCs loaded.
Gold coins should be 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 5 oz per coin and have 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 5 BTCs loaded.
Silver coins should be 1oz / 5oz and have 0.02 / 0.1  per coin.

[NotLambchop]

...
Gold above ground: 180k tons
BTCs in circulation: ~12m (minus the lost ones)

Average ratio of gold per BTC = 15kg of gold for 1 BTC

By the same ratio, 1 BTC = 15kg of gold (in terms of scarcity) = 600k USD+ in terms of value per coin.
...

Pieces of toilet paper, signed by NotLambchop, currently above ground:  One.

Average ratio of gold per toilet_paper_signed_by_NotLambchop:  180k tons to 1.

I see potential here...

[Miz4r]

...
Gold above ground: 180k tons
BTCs in circulation: ~12m (minus the lost ones)

Average ratio of gold per BTC = 15kg of gold for 1 BTC

By the same ratio, 1 BTC = 15kg of gold (in terms of scarcity) = 600k USD+ in terms of value per coin.
...

Pieces of toilet paper, signed by NotLambchop, currently above ground:  One.

Average ratio of gold per toilet_paper_signed_by_NotLambchop:  180k tons to 1.

I see potential here...

But who actually wants your shitty piece of toilet paper? To be honest I don't want any shitty piece of gold either, it has absolutely no use whatsoever for me. I can't eat it, I can't use it to make something useful for myself or someone else, so it's useless for me. It could be useful however as a store of value or medium of exchange if there is a consensus among people to use and value it in that way. As long as enough people agree to use it as such it suddenly does have value for me as well and I'd like to get me some. It will be hard to find enough people to form a consensus about your wonderful signed piece of toilet paper though.

[NotLambchop]

^Simply pointing out AlexGR's broken logic.  It may be unlikely that I'll be paid 180k tons of gold for my piece of toilet paper, though the ratio I have presented is correct.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.

As a margin note, I'm cautiously optimistic about getting srs money for my autographed square of toilet paper.  Picasso paid for his meals by scribbling on napkins, just think what a NotLambchop original is worth!  It has intrinsic value (using finance definition of the phrase)--it's an integral part of Western personal hygiene, above and beyond its obvious artistic merit (intrinsic value as defined in philosophy + economic speculative value).

[AlexGR]

^Simply pointing out AlexGR's broken logic.  It may be unlikely that I'll be paid 180k tons of gold for my piece of toilet paper, though the ratio I have presented is correct.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.

If you were into numismatics you'd understand the meaning of mintage and scarcity. There is a reason why a 1933 double eagle costs 7 million dollars: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_double_eagle

Scarcity.

There is a reason why 42 costs like 20 BTC. Scarcity & ratios.

You might not understand the scarcity factor but A LOT of people do understand it and invest insane amounts of money to acquire scarcity.

There is no "correct" or "wrong" rationality, it's just what different people value. For you a 1933 double eagle might be more like 1 oz of gold that is scrap metal - just like a 1932/31/30/29 etc. For another it is worth 7.5mn dollars. That's just how it goes.

[Blue]

Smoke Crack! Worship Satan! Buy Bitcoin!

yep, and drink some Stöffli (as they say in Switzerland)

[NotLambchop]

^Simply pointing out AlexGR's broken logic.  It may be unlikely that I'll be paid 180k tons of gold for my piece of toilet paper, though the ratio I have presented is correct.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.

If you were into numismatics you'd understand the meaning of mintage and scarcity. There is a reason why a 1933 double eagle costs 7 million dollars: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_double_eagle

Scarcity.

I'm not, but if you were into collecting art, you'd know that a signed 2014 NotLambchop original is far more rare.

Scarcity.

There is a reason why 42 costs like 20 BTC. Scarcity & ratios.

You might not understand the scarcity factor but A LOT of people do understand it and invest insane amounts of money to acquire scarcity.

It's clearly you who doesn't understand scarcity.  Even after I elaborated that only one original, signed Toilet Paper Square With Words by NotLambchop, exists.
Just one.  If it was any more scarce none would exist.
Imagine that?    

There is no "correct" or "wrong" rationality, it's just what different people value. For you a 1933 double eagle might be more like 1 oz of gold that is scrap metal - just like a 1932/31/30/29 etc. For another it is worth 7.5mn dollars. That's just how it goes.

As I write this, the price of 1 BTC on Bitstamp is $568.88.  Anyone paying substantially less is getting a deal, anyone paying substantially more isn't.  
This price is only marginally affected by the amount of gold above ground or the number of brilliant and rare NotLambchop originals.
Simple.  

Now you now.

[MahaRamana]

^Simply pointing out AlexGR's broken logic.  It may be unlikely that I'll be paid 180k tons of gold for my piece of toilet paper, though the ratio I have presented is correct.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.

Equally meaningless ? No.

In the case of bitcoin, it fulfils the function of gold - the difference is that bitcoin fulfils it better because it is easily transferable anywhere in the world, it has way less "storage" cost and it is easy to check what is in the vault (impossible to lie), and it is much more difficult to manipulate its price on the markets.
Today people are not aware that bitcoin is a better store of value than gold, but they might be in the future. The current trend says so.

In the case of your piece of toilet paper, nobody heard of it, and everyone would expect that you will create thousands of them if people would give it value - therefore it has none.

The ratio of gold/fiat btc/fiat makes sense and gives a good indication of potential value of BTC. If BTC does a better job at storing value and if it succeeds, its value should go beyond the calculated ratio of 15kg of gold of 1 BTC.

[MahaRamana]

This price is only marginally affected by the amount of gold above ground or the number of brilliant and rare NotLambchop originals.
Simple.  

Now you now.

The current price is not affected, no. We are talking about a future price in the hypothesis of success and full adoption as a global store of value and unit of transfer.

It is not that the quantity of above ground gold changes anything, but it is about the wealth that it represents today in relation with the functions that it plays today.

[SlipperySlope]

The short term triangle I present below lacks the drama and importance of the recently broken trendline down from the November 2013 peak. I suppose that it will break out to the upside in a day or two. Or conversely drop down to test $550 again.

My logistic model trendline value is $1404 rising over $10 each day.

This is the 2-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp drawn with BitcoinWisdom . . .

Did we break out of this wedge to the downside?

Yes, I suggest that we have. I hope for consolidation at this point, not a retracement back to $510 or so, where the price previously stalled for a couple of days.

[SlipperySlope]

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.

There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022

Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.

[NotLambchop]

This price is only marginally affected by the amount of gold above ground or the number of brilliant and rare NotLambchop originals.
Simple.  

Now you now.

The current price is not affected, no. We are talking about a future price in the hypothesis of success and full adoption as a global store of value and unit of transfer.

It is not that the quantity of above ground gold changes anything, but it is about the wealth that it represents today in relation with the functions that it plays today.

First, let's deal with a few misconceptions.

The amount of gold in the world does not represent the total "wealth" of the world.  Nor does the combined total of gold and silver.  Nor does the combined total of gold, silver, cowrie shells and NotLambchop originals.

Another strange loop you enter into when giving (total fiat /total bitcoin) ratios is "what happens with total fiat after such an exchange?"
In other words, if each Bitcoin, in a quest for world domination. is sold for the equal share of the world's fiat supply, what is that huge pile of fiat worth after the sale?  Nothing?  Than why would the seller of bitcoin make such an unprofitable deal?
Half of what it was worth before the sale?
And what of the gold, which wasn't part of that exchange?

Such fundamental misunderstanding here...

[Biodom]

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.

There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022

Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.

So, 0.05 BTC would be a cool $500 mil and kids of the current miners who were donating 0.05 BTC antminer S1 coupons left and right (I am guilty of that too) might be unhappy about that in the future. It might happen, but perhaps in the 22nd century and not in 2022, though. I would be completely satisfied in my lifetime to have bitcoin valued at $1 mil in current $$.

[zimmah]

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.

There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022

Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.

That would be a bit weird, that would make bitcoin (in total) be worth over 100 quadrillion or something. You're talking about today's dollars?

I wouldn't mind if that would happen, but I seriously doubt it. I think 1 to 10 million is plausible, and possibly even 100 million. But beyond that just doesn't seem likely. But I would definitly not mind being a billionaire.

[SlipperySlope]

[I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.

There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022

Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.

That would be a bit weird, that would make bitcoin (in total) be worth over 100 quadrillion or something. You're talking about today's dollars?

I wouldn't mind if that would happen, but I seriously doubt it. I think 1 to 10 million is plausible, and possibly even 100 million. But beyond that just doesn't seem likely. But I would definitly not mind being a billionaire.

In some possible world in which a Satoshi is worth $100, holders almost never sell and the world economy runs on a tiny fraction of the Bitcoins mined.

[bitcoinsrus]

[I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.

There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022

Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.

That would be a bit weird, that would make bitcoin (in total) be worth over 100 quadrillion or something. You're talking about today's dollars?

I wouldn't mind if that would happen, but I seriously doubt it. I think 1 to 10 million is plausible, and possibly even 100 million. But beyond that just doesn't seem likely. But I would definitly not mind being a billionaire.

In some possible world in which a Satoshi is worth $100, holders almost never sell and the world economy runs on a tiny fraction of the Bitcoins mined.

[Biodom]

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.

There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022

Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.

That would be a bit weird, that would make bitcoin (in total) be worth over 100 quadrillion or something. You're talking about today's dollars?

I wouldn't mind if that would happen, but I seriously doubt it. I think 1 to 10 million is plausible, and possibly even 100 million. But beyond that just doesn't seem likely. But I would definitly not mind being a billionaire.

Someone sold one bitcoin in 2022....Jesseeeee!



Edit: A single (and not the best by far) basketball club was sold for $2 bil and bitcoin is worth ~7bil. This is crazy.