rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[MahaRamana]

This price is only marginally affected by the amount of gold above ground or the number of brilliant and rare NotLambchop originals.
Simple.  

Now you now.

The current price is not affected, no. We are talking about a future price in the hypothesis of success and full adoption as a global store of value and unit of transfer.

It is not that the quantity of above ground gold changes anything, but it is about the wealth that it represents today in relation with the functions that it plays today.

First, let's deal with a few misconceptions.

The amount of gold in the world does not represent the total "wealth" of the world.  Nor does the combined total of gold and silver.  Nor does the combined total of gold, silver, cowrie shells and NotLambchop originals.

Another strange loop you enter into when giving (total fiat /total bitcoin) ratios is "what happens with total fiat after such an exchange?"
In other words, if each Bitcoin, in a quest for world domination. is sold for the equal share of the world's fiat supply, what is that huge pile of fiat worth after the sale?  Nothing?  Than why would the seller of bitcoin make such an unprofitable deal?
Half of what it was worth before the sale?
And what of the gold, which wasn't part of that exchange?

Such fundamental misunderstanding here...

Where did I or anyone say that the gold represents the total wealth of the world ?

"what happens with total fiat after such an exchange?"
Why would anything happen to the fiat used to buy bitcoin after an exchange ? Why would it be nothing after the sale ?

Who enters into strange loops ?

Full bitcoin adoption means less use of fiat for transactions and storage of value, and less use of gold for storage of value, and less use of real estate for storage of value, and a comparable lowering of fiat and gold value and real estate value relative to total global wealth. Indeed, bitcoin, a new player takes these functions and "steals" a % in the representation of global wealth. Global wealth remains the same, but what is used to transact it and represent it changes.

Your points didn't add anything to the discussion and were only about bashing others about poor understanding while showing no argument whatsoever.
If you could write a post with some logic or honesty and without blaming others for poor understanding I will reconsider the troll label that was just stick on "NotLambchop".

[healthandwealth]

Looks like we have a bull pennant pattern...which could signify a breakout to the lower to mid 600's soon.

[TERA]

Breaking news: rpetelia's actual photo is released:

[Alonzo Ewing]

Bitcoin doesn't have to reach full adoption to achieve its fullest value - it just has to look probable that it will, its all pricing expectations ultimately.
If $1,000,000 is full value then we are currently pricing in a 0.057% chance that this happens (EDIT: not entirely accurate, lets use very low probability instead), possibly a little low? or the market does not believe that $1,000,000 is really the final value, in which case move that trendline lower as it's location is entirely dependant on slipperyslopes' $1,000,000 assumption.

Your argument is essentially correct but is missing one component: an efficient market. For that we need easy entry into the asset and we don't have that yet. It's only easy for small time US citizens to get bitcoins (Coinbase).  It's hard for people elsewhere. It's especially hard for large institutions to get in. Until it's easy for Wall Street to put in (and take out) billions at the click of a mouse, we don't have fast price discovery. My guess is if a Bitcoin ETF existed, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $1 million would be much higher as reflected in the price.

[Alonzo Ewing]

As much as that sounds awesome, that means that the market cap (assuming most of the 21 million coins are in circulation by then) would be 21,000,000,000,000 (or 21 trillion).

I forgot where I heard about if BTC reaches 300k, that would be around gold standard.
To me, it seems mind boggling and might (or might not) go around those areas.

[edit]:  If bitcoin becomes international payment (around the world).  Seems more possible (then if it just stays mainly in one area (like China or US or something)

Payments is small time. If you add up the market caps of VISA, MasterCard, Western Union, and Paypal, you get on the order of a couple hundred billion.

The money is in the wealth assets. Gold itself is $6 trillion. And gold is a very very small part of people's wealth. Add up real estate, stocks, and bonds, and you'll see some monster numbers.

Heck, just add up the nations of the worlds' reserve assets. I can readily see Bitcoin becoming THE reserve currency of the world. Now that would be a big number.

This is why I don't worry about merchant adoption: its use as a speculative store of value is the primary driver of the price, and it's much more important.

[Kramerc]

Someone sold one bitcoin in 2022....Jesseeeee!



Edit: A single (and not the best by far) basketball club was sold for $2 bil and bitcoin is worth ~7bil. This is crazy.

The only reason I see for someone to sell a bitcoin in 2022 for that amount of useless paper is if he was having serious bowel movement.

[dnaleor]

Someone sold one bitcoin in 2022....Jesseeeee!



Edit: A single (and not the best by far) basketball club was sold for $2 bil and bitcoin is worth ~7bil. This is crazy.

The only reason I see for someone to sell a bitcoin in 2022 for that amount of useless paper is if he was having serious bowel movement.

this post is nominated for Best Joke of the Day 

[SnowMonkey_CG]

Bitfinex seems to be pulling away from stamp... why?!

(I don't like seeing price action I don't recognise!)

[TERA]

Bitfinex seems to be pulling away from stamp... why?!

(I don't like seeing price action I don't recognise!)

Because it is disconnected.

[Ozziecoin]

Bitfinex seems to be pulling away from stamp... why?!

(I don't like seeing price action I don't recognise!)

Because they have a bot called Willy2.... 

[SnowMonkey_CG]

Was just surprised to see, stamp is normally close to finex... I just closed my long position on bitfinex at 603 hoping to reopen lower.

[pinksheep]

As much as that sounds awesome, that means that the market cap (assuming most of the 21 million coins are in circulation by then) would be 21,000,000,000,000 (or 21 trillion).

I forgot where I heard about if BTC reaches 300k, that would be around gold standard.
To me, it seems mind boggling and might (or might not) go around those areas.

[edit]:  If bitcoin becomes international payment (around the world).  Seems more possible (then if it just stays mainly in one area (like China or US or something)

Payments is small time. If you add up the market caps of VISA, MasterCard, Western Union, and Paypal, you get on the order of a couple hundred billion.

The money is in the wealth assets. Gold itself is $6 trillion. And gold is a very very small part of people's wealth. Add up real estate, stocks, and bonds, and you'll see some monster numbers.

Heck, just add up the nations of the worlds' reserve assets. I can readily see Bitcoin becoming THE reserve currency of the world. Now that would be a big number.

This is why I don't worry about merchant adoption: its use as a speculative store of value is the primary driver of the price, and it's much more important.

I agree with you about payment being small time, but I can't see BTC becoming the reserve currency for a VERY long time. What time frame do you have in mind for this to happen? Also I can't imagine governments letting it happen.

[SlipperySlope]

We are now two weeks after the breakout of the resistance trendline from the November 2013 peak. It appears the next resistance could be at $650 where prices stalled for a while on the way down. This is the 3-day resolution chart from Bitstamp.

[TERA]

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

[kehtolo]

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

it looks likely for next week $1M!!!

 

[pinksheep]

Never mind $1,000,000, I'd be quite happy with $50,000 Hopefully by the end of 2015

[zimmah]

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

you're making it seem like it's a bad thing.

[TERA]

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

you're making it seem like it's a bad thing.

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

[zimmah]

it may be a good thing though because if enough people believe in it it will happen regardless.

[inca]

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

you're making it seem like it's a bad thing.

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

How does one project the future without including the immediate past as reference?

People being ebullient after price rises following a bear market is entirely normal. Just as sorrow levels were high as the price kept falling endlessly.

The reason people project seemingly massive bitcoin gains is that they are possible if adoption waves continue. Sure they will likely not happen this year or anytime soon, but they could.