rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[JayJuanGee]

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done.  They cant compete with the big guys.  Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day.  @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC?  .1%, 1% 10%?  Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof.  $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices.  I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million.  Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount.  So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million?  Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

I can see why you are being a little non-specific here; however, if this information is true, then this would be humungous for bitcoin and there would be NO way from stopping upward slippage (unless there is some kinds of fractional reserve banking going on with some of the bitcoin exchanges). 

It would be good to know the timeline for such investment(s) b/c it would make a difference if an attempt were made to accomplish such investments in the next few months or if such investments were going to be spread over the next year or longer.  For example, if they chose to spread their investment into BTC over the next two years, then it is possible that the later half of their investment would NOT have very much of an affect on bitcoin prices, if BTC's market cap has sufficiently gone up by that time. 

[Biodom]

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done.  They cant compete with the big guys.  Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day.  @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC?  .1%, 1% 10%?  Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof.  $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices.  I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million.  Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount.  So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million?  Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

As you know, nobody can invest $2 bil in bitcoin at these prices. The yearly production is only ~0.5bil.
If it is $3840/BTC, then, yes, of course.
I wonder if bitcoin will have it's Hunt's brothers moment. As it is still completely unregulated  by CFTC, it is entirely possible that someone may try to produce a "corner". It is probably trivial for a large player to provide or borrow sufficient funds (less than ~$1.4 mil daily)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/09/silver-thursday-hunt-brothers.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

[nakaone]

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done.  They cant compete with the big guys.  Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day.  @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC?  .1%, 1% 10%?  Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof.  $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices.  I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million.  Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount.  So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million?  Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

maybe I am overly naive but how do you hide investing 2bn from a balance sheet and much more important why should you?

[piramida]

maybe I am overly naive but how do you hide investing 2bn from a balance sheet and much more important why should you?

imagine you are a big player late to the game. you see potential and low prices. if you announce your plans, no more low prices. makes perfect sense to buy as much as possible directly on OTC , while spreading fear and pushing price down on exchanges, no? that way insufficient liquidity will not be as obvious since many weak hands will get rid of their coins while panicking. of course, you can't hide that forever and at some point there are just no more sellers available; then it explodes.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is recent evidence of the tendency for gold and bitcoin prices to move in the same direction, and have similar trend reversals.

This is a chart of gold prices at a one-day resolution...



And here is a chart of bitcoin prices, likewise with one-day resolution...

[JayJuanGee]

Pelase, remember, this is THE QUALITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS thread.

Thank you.

1. Still coming off a bubble.
2. There are 650,000 BTC ($221,000,000 USD @ $340) stolen MTGOX coins being sold off not so slowly
3. The mining community is done.  They cant compete with the big guys.  Centralization
4. 3600 bitcoins are created each day.  @ $340 USD that is $1,224,000 that needs to come in to the market each day just to stay @ $340.

Analysis this

I know from first hand big players that are buying directly from miners like crazy. I am talking about billion budget entities..

How much of their billion dollar budgets are going into BTC?  .1%, 1% 10%?  Makes a difference, no?

2bn

At this time, no one is investing $2 billion into bitcoin b/c otherwise BTC prices would be going through the roof.  $2 billion is more than 40% of bitcoin's current market cap.

Even attempting to currently invest $500 million into BTC would probably have a very considerable upward pressure on BTC prices.  I am NOT sure how such an investment of let's say $500 million would be able to be hidden or to NOT cause upward BTC price slippage.

Let's say that the company is a $2billion company, and they decide to invest 10% into bitcoin (that would be fairly aggressive), then that would be $200 million.  Still I would find it difficult to hide or NOT to cause upward BTC price slippage with that amount.  So maybe they are investing 1%, which would be $20million?  Still bullish, but possible to hide, in my humble opinion.

S. America bank will buy slowly on behalf of a very known one (they don't want to be seen).
Can't say more nor I am 100% sure, though my source is very reliable.

They will invest 2bn.

Maybe it is not true, who knows?

maybe I am overly naive but how do you hide investing 2bn from a balance sheet and much more important why should you?

Nakaone:

I believe that you are misunderstanding our use of the term "hide" in this context.... but Klee can clarify what he meant by hide.

I think that in one sense the term hide is being used to refer to the practice or attempt to invest without moving the price.. Therefore to accumulate as much as you can while the price is down. 

Regarding the mechanics and or obligations to either shareholders, or to managers or to owners, that would be a different question, and I am sure such disclosure to the extent that they are necessary can be carried out in a wide variety of ways.  For example, an investment balance sheet can show an investment (but might not specify what it is for, even though the amount is clearly contained therein), and later, after the accumulation has occurred there may be clarifications of the exact investment(s).

[nioc]

What settings are you guys using?

I keep seeing this.............


This user is currently ignored.


.........but when you quote I see something else.

[Biodom]

New global wealth numbers:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11161150/Are-you-among-the-worlds-wealthiest.html
https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=60931FDE-A2D2-F568-B041B58C5EA591A4

total wealth-$263 trl (263x1,000,000,000,000)
You need $798,000 to be top 1%
You need just $77,000 to be top 10%

All bitcoin-~$5.2-5.3bil (0.002% of worlds wealth).
If 0.1% of worlds wealth will be allocated to bitcoin, it would reach ~$20,000/BTC, and if 0.5%, then it is $100,000/BTC
In my opinion, it makes $20-100K/BTC a quite reasonable expectation.

[njcarlos]

What settings are you guys using?

I keep seeing this.............


This user is currently ignored.


.........but when you quote I see something else.

Yes quoting does bleed the ignored user's content. The content is there, it's just collapsed (show/hide in the corner).

[rpietila]

A D V E R T I S E M E N T  -  O P P O R T U N I T Y

The early adopter phase of my virtual world - Crypto Kingdom is starting NOW.

If you are interested in the game, want to fund its development, and enjoy a bit of speculation, now it is possible to buy ingame gold. Minimum at this point is for 100 XMR (about BTC0.25) but it will be listed soon and then smaller lots become possible.

[nioc]

A D V E R T I S E M E N T  -  O P P O R T U N I T Y

The early adopter phase of my virtual world - Crypto Kingdom is starting NOW.

If you are interested in the game, want to fund its development, and enjoy a bit of speculation, now it is possible to buy ingame gold. Minimum at this point is for 100 XMR (about BTC2.5) but it will be listed soon and then smaller lots become possible.

I think you mean BTC0.25

[rpietila]

A D V E R T I S E M E N T  -  O P P O R T U N I T Y

The early adopter phase of my virtual world - Crypto Kingdom is starting NOW.

If you are interested in the game, want to fund its development, and enjoy a bit of speculation, now it is possible to buy ingame gold. Minimum at this point is for 100 XMR (about BTC2.5) but it will be listed soon and then smaller lots become possible.

I think you mean BTC0.25

Just wanted to see if anyone reads my posts   

[wachtwoord]

A D V E R T I S E M E N T  -  O P P O R T U N I T Y

The early adopter phase of my virtual world - Crypto Kingdom is starting NOW.

If you are interested in the game, want to fund its development, and enjoy a bit of speculation, now it is possible to buy ingame gold. Minimum at this point is for 100 XMR (about BTC2.5) but it will be listed soon and then smaller lots become possible.

I think you mean BTC0.25

Just wanted to see if anyone reads my posts   

I saw it but didn't fix it because I was in a hurry. See 2 people read your posts

[BitDreams]

Here is recent evidence of the tendency for gold and bitcoin prices to move in the same direction, and have similar trend reversals.

This is a chart of gold prices at a one-day resolution...



And here is a chart of bitcoin prices, likewise with one-day resolution...

Here is a link to a daily GLD (etf) and BTC, the correlation has been good from daily perspective since July: https://www.tradingview.com/e/A9moXR92/
This implies to me that the mindset of speculative buyers is weighted towards Bitcoin as an asset these past few months.

[JayJuanGee]

Here is recent evidence of the tendency for gold and bitcoin prices to move in the same direction, and have similar trend reversals.

This is a chart of gold prices at a one-day resolution...

https://i.imgur.com/2Hj8P4N.png[/img]

And here is a chart of bitcoin prices, likewise with one-day resolution...

https://i.imgur.com/IHGFHLD.png[/img]

Here is a link to a daily GLD (etf) and BTC, the correlation has been good from daily perspective since July: https://www.tradingview.com/e/A9moXR92/
This implies to me that the mindset of speculative buyers is weighted towards Bitcoin as an asset these past few months.

Maybe I am a bit too bullish about the potentials of BTC, but merely because BTC has tracked fairly consistently with Gold for a short period of time, should NOT in any way be considered as BTC's potential..

In other words, it seems that BTC has way more exponential potential than Gold .. for a variety of reasons - just the mere fact that BTC is a new asset class, as compared with Gold, should demonstrate that it has much more space for growth as compared with the various limitations of Gold and some of the problems with historical Gold manipulation and hoarding by the status quo wealthy and by governments.

[NotLambchop]

Here is recent evidence of the tendency for gold and bitcoin prices to move in the same direction, and have similar trend reversals.

This is a chart of gold prices at a one-day resolution...



And here is a chart of bitcoin prices, likewise with one-day resolution...

Here is a link to a daily GLD (etf) and BTC, the correlation has been good from daily perspective since July: https://www.tradingview.com/e/A9moXR92/
This implies to me that the mindset of speculative buyers is weighted towards Bitcoin as an asset these past few months.

Not to nitpick, but while the resolution on both charts is daily candles...  the top chart covers ~66 days, while the bottom ~90.  This is what it looks like when the time scale is adjusted, with most liberal curve-fitting:


*Blue candles: BTC price, red: gold.

/nerdage

[JayJuanGee]

Here is recent evidence of the tendency for gold and bitcoin prices to move in the same direction, and have similar trend reversals.

This is a chart of gold prices at a one-day resolution...

https://i.imgur.com/2Hj8P4N.png[/img]

And here is a chart of bitcoin prices, likewise with one-day resolution...
https://i.imgur.com/IHGFHLD.png[/img]

Here is a link to a daily GLD (etf) and BTC, the correlation has been good from daily perspective since July: https://www.tradingview.com/e/A9moXR92/
This implies to me that the mindset of speculative buyers is weighted towards Bitcoin as an asset these past few months.

Not to nitpick, but while the resolution on both charts is daily candles...  the top chart covers ~66 days, while the bottom ~90.  This is what it looks like when the time scale is adjusted, with most liberal curve-fitting:

http://s22.postimg.org/5vsh8j1oh/chart11.png[/img]
*Blue candles: BTC price, red: gold.

/nerdage

Thanks NOT NotPork.   

[fewcoins]

So wait you guys are trying to prove bitcoin is being manipulated as much as gold??? I don't think that's a selling point at all gold will probably near $1,000 soon, so btc to 100? 

[nioc]

To keep the list short name those things of value that are not "manipulated".

[BitDreams]

So wait you guys are trying to prove bitcoin is being manipulated as much as gold??? I don't think that's a selling point at all gold will probably near $1,000 soon, so btc to 100? 

Personally i think bitcoin price action has gotten boring so it's trading like gold for the past few months is all.