rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

This thread lost all sense of integrity/value for me when Risto started letting NotFuckchop park his relentless trolling dribble here.

NotLambChop, please do not post again.

[fewcoins]

Nobody seems to want to explain why transactions is growing too.

Ah, as was the case already with the tx growth in 2012, and further in 2013, don't you know it's all FAKE! It was fake then, and it is increasingly more fake now, and in 2015 it will be even more fake. That is the only likely and true explanation, and the only conclusion is to go short on BTC now. 

I mean did you think about mixers and all the other technology that literally just makes more btc wallets at the push of a button???

I used to use one wallet... now I use a different one everyday... everytime I send funds into the exchange I get a different wallet address from them too.

So imagine is even 10% of people do what I do... I'm sure a bigger percentage does a lot more as well.

I'm still a buyer, at this level a pop is on the way sooner than you think!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

This thread lost all sense of integrity/value for me when Risto started letting NotFuckchop park his relentless trolling dribble here.

NotLambChop, please do not post again.

This thread lost all sense of integrity/value for me when Risto started hamming it up as lord of the manor in the altcoins section

[rpietila]

This thread lost all sense of integrity/value for me when Risto started letting NotFuckchop park his relentless trolling dribble here.

NotLambChop, please do not post again.

This thread lost all sense of integrity/value for me when Risto started hamming it up as lord of the manor in the altcoins section

Yeah, it is definitely despicable, if not borderline criminal, to do anything at all to develop the services using cryptocoins. The only allowable activity is mouthblathering, right? Please do not post again.

[contagion]

Until Apple stops restricting innovation and limiting what people can put on their devices, I hope that they continue to lose market share to the point of oblivion. They got caught up in their own stardom and sunk like the Titanic.

Sounds like you are describing Bitcoin too.

One block chain for everybody is a walled garden. What happened to personal choice? I happened to prefer a debased block chain, because for one of many reasons, Gresham's Law insures that debased money will drive non-debased money out-of-circulation. And can't we see that is happening now with off chain Paypal and Coinbase bringing the masses into the Bitcoin unit. Won't be too long after they can start loaning fractional reserve units of BTC traded off chain. People will love that.

Only One Way never scales. Never. TCP/IP isn't the only protocol on the internet. There is no monopoly protocol on the internet. Not even HTTP is unassailable. There is a distinction between this reality and paradigms which do not self-optimize.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Gresham's Law has several crucial assumptions about the role of the State in money that you have ignored to arrive at a wholly incorrect conclusion.

More reading for you before you begin spouting again I would advise.

[contagion]

You assume (without verifying) I have ignored them.

You write with a non-civil, ad hominem tone which is not representative of scholarly discussion, without first verifying your (what I believe to be incorrect) assumptions. Was there any ad hominem acrimony in my post?

Can't you see then why discussion turns nasty and devolves in noise.

Please try again to have a civil discussion. You can present your arguments and I will respond.

[contagion]

You should check your assumptions against the fact that the free market chose to circulate fractional gold receipts instead of the physical gold which was instead placed on deposit with private banks in the 1800s. Which in turn enabled loaning of money at levels that would not have otherwise been possible and facilitated the numerous booms and busts in the 1800s. What is easier and faster to transact, an off chain BTC transfer or an on chain Bitcoin? (in some cases on chain Bitcoin, if you don't both have the compatible off chain BTC accounts, but expect Coinbase, Paypal, etc to build off chain interconnections)

History has shown that Gresham's Law needs to be qualified by actual opportunity costs:

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr1012.pdf

That seems accurate. Physical gold still circulated between private banks in the 1800s.

Note I've been predicting this outcome since March 2013 when I wrote Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch and I made another more explicit thread on this in April 2014 wherein I also called for the slowing adoption rate, insufficient on chain scaling, and about that time also saying the price would drop to $350 (there is a post in one of rpietila's threads with that exact prediction before the first time it happened) which it did:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557732.0

[macsga]

This thread lost all sense of integrity/value for me when Risto started letting NotFuckchop park his relentless trolling dribble here.

NotLambChop, please do not post again.

At last this thread earns back its credibility; be aware though, (s)he has -at least- another 4 clones.

[Dotto]

Really liked the new contagion/anonymint posts.

What about the 2.5BTC, did Risto delivered his word?

[rpietila]

What about the 2.5BTC, did Risto delivered his word?

The problem is not the paying, we already agreed that the condition for the bounty was fulfilled. The issue now is that the account we promised to pay the bounty is no longer in use, and that the means to determine if "contagion" = "TheFascistMind" = "AnonyMint" are limited. To make it sure, I would like the person himself contact me with some of the channels we used in contact prior to Bitcointalk existed. The real AnonyMint is easily able to do so. That will ensure that there is no congame and the money goes to the right person.

If this does not happen, and there is no credible reason why the contact cannot be established, we have to conclude that "TheFascistMind" was not the same person as "AnonyMint", and claiming to be so when it is not true, is a serious enough wrongdoing that the bounty is withheld.

On the other hand, the real AnonyMint is a very conscientious person and he may at his whim even refuse the bounty. I know him from many years and appreciate him greatly for this and other reasons.

[sporket]

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

You can create a new topic if you are unsatisfied with this one. If the topic-starter is scamming, post about it in Scam Accusations.

ITT: Pied Piper disguises self as Moses; abandons rats as the Red Sea drowns the vermin; onlookers point and laugh.

[podyx]

Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?

Let me guess, he "calls the bottom" like last time?

lol

[Torque]

Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?

I would be interested to know this as well.  Risto, are you a buyer at this level, or would you be if you had more funds to invest?

Btw, it's your thread so ignoring the detractors I think you have the right to give your opinion on price levels and investing strategy, whether you get it right or not (because no one truly knows 100% what the market will do).  I have always appreciated your insight on the market, one of the few in this subforum.  At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.

Hopefully a troll won't come in here and try to squash this exchange.

[riiiiising]

Trendline update as of today.

0,002985x - 2,851666

R^2 = 0,935623

Picture is telling the important thing.

In Red, USD/BTC log chart since the beginning (this is a 2050 day chart), with 0 showing $1 and every level is 10x as high as the previous one.

In Blue, the daily deviation from the then-current exponential trendline. (The first trendline calculated is from April-2011 however).


Very crude but shows, among others, that:

- The latest dip from 570 to 510 in Bitcoin price is so insignificant that it can hardly be seen, even though this is a daily chart and not a weekly vwap (same goes for Silkroad flashcrash in 2013-10-3 btw);
- We are currently at -0.56 below the trend, so it is very low;
- We were this low in 2012-5-21; 7-8 months before the uptrend of 2013 started, so it is not a given that we will see an uptrend soon this time either, even if the history was to predict the future;
- However, the lowest price ever seen after 2012-5-21 was only $0.02 lower than the price in 2012-5-21, based on this, the downside from here on is extremely limited.

Extremely limited, oh? Please rpietila, provide us with more of your wise insights. By the way, why won't you update your monthly trend line anymore?

[DieJohnny]

Nobody seems to want to explain why transactions is growing too.

Ah, as was the case already with the tx growth in 2012, and further in 2013, don't you know it's all FAKE! It was fake then, and it is increasingly more fake now, and in 2015 it will be even more fake. That is the only likely and true explanation, and the only conclusion is to go short on BTC now. 

I mean did you think about mixers and all the other technology that literally just makes more btc wallets at the push of a button???

I used to use one wallet... now I use a different one everyday... everytime I send funds into the exchange I get a different wallet address from them too.

So imagine is even 10% of people do what I do... I'm sure a bigger percentage does a lot more as well.

I'm still a buyer, at this level a pop is on the way sooner than you think!

Do you mean a different address every day or a different wallet? I believe those are two different things.

[JayJuanGee]

Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?

I would be interested to know this as well.  Risto, are you a buyer at this level, or would you be if you had more funds to invest?

Btw, it's your thread so ignoring the detractors I think you have the right to give your opinion on price levels and investing strategy, whether you get it right or not (because no one truly knows 100% what the market will do).  I have always appreciated your insight on the market, one of the few in this subforum.  At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.

Hopefully a troll won't come in here and try to squash this exchange.

I agree with this line of questioning.

Even if Risto may consider bitcoin price trendline in a mathematical way, this ongoing bear market and downtrend must have shifted the trendline downward, even if considering the matter mathematically.

[cbeast]

The problem with trendlines in a thin market is whales can ignore them and change the trend at will.

[RyNinDaCleM]

... At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.

Bitcoin... "Anything worth doing is worth overdoing" Bitcoin over does it in both directions. From bubbles to crashes. This market is so full of inexperience that the panic in both directions is what does it. I don't necessarily think the price over-corrected as much as the time it took. This is a reasonable (from a technical standpoint) level to expect the correction to fall to. The time however, at least combined with the price decline is a bit excessive. Had we fallen to these prices in a more impulsive manner when we saw $339 or even $275, then I would have been satisfied with that. But the reluctance to take even a little profit by so many due to FOMO is what just prolonged the inevitable (I say inevitable because to me, this is what should have been expected). This is what I expected since we had that rally in May last year. The time it took however, is un-bear-able.