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Author Topic: [CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers  (Read 828595 times)
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xstr8guy
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January 03, 2014, 03:05:41 AM
 #5241

3 blocks in the last 10 shifts... what's happening?  I don't think I've ever seen luck this bad on BTCG.  Is there a technical glitch?   Huh
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eleuthria
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January 03, 2014, 03:49:06 AM
 #5242

3 blocks in the last 10 shifts... what's happening?  I don't think I've ever seen luck this bad on BTCG.  Is there a technical glitch?   Huh

Everything is running fine, it's just really shitty luck.  2x 4(+) hour blocks in close proximity pretty much nukes the blocks per shift for most the day.  A 4 hour block is (roughly) a 7x difficulty block.  These are not extremely rare, but it is quite rare to have 2 of them very close together.

I suppose this is payback for when Guild found 11 blocks in a row the other week.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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January 03, 2014, 04:08:53 AM
 #5243

3 blocks in the last 10 shifts... what's happening?  I don't think I've ever seen luck this bad on BTCG.  Is there a technical glitch?   Huh

This is normal variance at play.

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January 03, 2014, 04:11:11 AM
 #5244

3 blocks in the last 10 shifts... what's happening?  I don't think I've ever seen luck this bad on BTCG.  Is there a technical glitch?   Huh

This is normal variance at play.


While technically variance is normal...this is more of the opposite of lottery-winning variance.  This is hit by a truck while witnessing your dog get struck by lightning variance.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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January 03, 2014, 04:13:48 AM
 #5245

3 blocks in the last 10 shifts... what's happening?  I don't think I've ever seen luck this bad on BTCG.  Is there a technical glitch?   Huh

This is normal variance at play.


While technically variance is normal...this is more of the opposite of lottery-winning variance.  This is hit by a truck while witnessing your dog get struck by lightning variance.

Yes I agree Sad
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January 03, 2014, 04:27:32 AM
 #5246

Painful it is to watch.  But the worm will turn.
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January 03, 2014, 04:40:45 AM
 #5247

If you didn't use the pool's actual 24 hours for your numbers, you're WAY off, by nearly a factor of 2.  144 blocks * 25% = 36 blocks/day expected, which is 900 BTC.  90% of that is PPLNS and 10% is PPS (rough numbers), or 810 / 90.  810 x 2% (accounting for orphans) = 16.2 BTC.   90 x 6.5% (accounting for orphans) = 5.85.  Meaning if the pool is functioning normally, at perfectly neutral luck, it's ~22 BTC.  I did not include tx fees the pool collects because those are not a noticeable increase, and those are shared with miners.  Additionally, the pool *pays* transaction fees for all payouts which is not included.  Right now the numbers are a bit higher due to network growth.  If you want to factor that in, add an extra 20% or so.  Of course that assumes that the pool grows in unison with the overall network.

A percentage of that income is also required to be set aside as a buffer for bad luck (PPS), as well as the chance of a security breach, because unlike some pools *cough*50BTC*cough*, BTC Guild will actually honor its debts in the event of a compromise.

I used the only value that can be easily determined: the pool speed as reported by the website.
Values such as 144 blocks or 25% are much more difficult to predict as they rely on total network hash speed, which is only based on estimates.
Again it was just a rough calculation.


Everything is running fine, it's just really shitty luck.  2x 4(+) hour blocks in close proximity pretty much nukes the blocks per shift for most the day.  A 4 hour block is (roughly) a 7x difficulty block.  These are not extremely rare, but it is quite rare to have 2 of them very close together.

Talking about luck again: are there any plans to implement a luck index for the current difficulty?
I assume the current figure is based on data over a very long period of time and it is basically useless for new miners that want to join. Most newbie miners would blindly believe that 103%+ luck is what they get if they join the pool.
I am curious at how much the 103.7% value will drop once the unlucky shifts close.
What are the reasons behind not letting people know what is the pool luck for the past 10 or so days?

If this post helped you and you feel generous you know what to do: 1P9tXFy9bVgzrfPGeV7F8np26ZtFdCCWvz
eleuthria
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January 03, 2014, 04:51:23 AM
 #5248

Talking about luck again: are there any plans to implement a luck index for the current difficulty?
I assume the current figure is based on data over a very long period of time and it is basically useless for new miners that want to join. Most newbie miners would blindly believe that 103%+ luck is what they get if they join the pool.
I am curious at how much the 103.7% value will drop once the unlucky shifts close.
What are the reasons behind not letting people know what is the pool luck for the past 10 or so days?

Anybody looking at luck figures to decide joining a pool doesn't understand what luck stats mean.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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dhenson
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January 03, 2014, 04:53:24 AM
 #5249

3 blocks in the last 10 shifts... what's happening?  I don't think I've ever seen luck this bad on BTCG.  Is there a technical glitch?   Huh

This is normal variance at play.


While technically variance is normal...this is more of the opposite of lottery-winning variance.  This is hit by a truck while witnessing your dog get struck by lightning variance.

3 blocks in 13 shifts... and counting. fml

edit...  0 blocks in 12 shifts.  That better highlights the insanity of the situation.
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January 03, 2014, 04:53:56 AM
 #5250

YAY we got one
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January 03, 2014, 04:59:58 AM
 #5251

Talking about luck again: are there any plans to implement a luck index for the current difficulty?
I assume the current figure is based on data over a very long period of time and it is basically useless for new miners that want to join. Most newbie miners would blindly believe that 103%+ luck is what they get if they join the pool.
I am curious at how much the 103.7% value will drop once the unlucky shifts close.
What are the reasons behind not letting people know what is the pool luck for the past 10 or so days?

Anybody looking at luck figures to decide joining a pool doesn't understand what luck stats mean.

I would not decide for other people on what information to base their decision to join a certain pool. Everyone is free to make their own choices.
All I am saying is that having a luck index for the current difficulty is as useful statistics as having a luck index for a very long period of time or any other arbitrary time period.
You already have the data in the Pool luck table, so I guess it would not be very difficult to implement it. You can even use the same chart and just make possible to see luck for the period selected.

If this post helped you and you feel generous you know what to do: 1P9tXFy9bVgzrfPGeV7F8np26ZtFdCCWvz
ineedit
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January 03, 2014, 06:09:32 AM
 #5252

Bad pool luck and orphans....

I do not know the pool's architecture but is there a problem with the how quickly the pool can announce a discovered block to the blockchain?

If I have been help then please show your thanks         BTC: 127PRogAVZiV3fEmpJERh9KemK3a3Ffh6G         LTC: LXghFL8mZffpTFkm2nRTesuDrV5DJQP3Js
eleuthria
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January 03, 2014, 06:11:16 AM
 #5253

Bad pool luck and orphans....

I do not know the pool's architecture but is there a problem with the how quickly the pool can announce a discovered block to the blockchain?

Our orphan rate is the same/lower than other pools, and we've not had any of them in the last 48 hours.  Bad luck is completely out of anybody's control.  Additionally, the pool is overall lucky since luck began getting tracked beyond a single difficulty period.

People lose their heads when luck is bad, but nobody asks if the pool is broken when it's paying out 50-60% above what you'd expect, which is just as likely/unlikely as 50-60% below what you'd expect.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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ineedit
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January 03, 2014, 06:19:13 AM
 #5254

Bad pool luck and orphans....

I do not know the pool's architecture but is there a problem with the how quickly the pool can announce a discovered block to the blockchain?

Our orphan rate is the same/lower than other pools, and we've not had any of them in the last 48 hours.  Bad luck is completely out of anybody's control.  Additionally, the pool is overall lucky since luck began getting tracked beyond a single difficulty period.

People lose their heads when luck is bad, but nobody asks if the pool is broken when it's paying out 50-60% above what you'd expect, which is just as likely/unlikely as 50-60% below what you'd expect.

No worries, are the orphans displayed somewhere on website?

If I have been help then please show your thanks         BTC: 127PRogAVZiV3fEmpJERh9KemK3a3Ffh6G         LTC: LXghFL8mZffpTFkm2nRTesuDrV5DJQP3Js
eleuthria
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January 03, 2014, 06:31:07 AM
 #5255

Bad pool luck and orphans....

I do not know the pool's architecture but is there a problem with the how quickly the pool can announce a discovered block to the blockchain?

Our orphan rate is the same/lower than other pools, and we've not had any of them in the last 48 hours.  Bad luck is completely out of anybody's control.  Additionally, the pool is overall lucky since luck began getting tracked beyond a single difficulty period.

People lose their heads when luck is bad, but nobody asks if the pool is broken when it's paying out 50-60% above what you'd expect, which is just as likely/unlikely as 50-60% below what you'd expect.

No worries, are the orphans displayed somewhere on website?

They're not separated from normal blocks since you don't know they're orphans when you first find them, and they're awarded to miners either way, so it doesn't exactly matter to the miner if its an orphan or not.

Some of the recent script updates have made it easier to match the orphans after the fact though, so I'll look into maybe italicizing the block number if it was an orphan.

UPDATE:  Orphans will now show up as 'Orphan' instead of a Block Number in the Block History (Pool Stats page).

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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mdude77
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January 03, 2014, 10:32:38 AM
 #5256

People lose their heads when luck is bad, but nobody asks if the pool is broken when it's paying out 50-60% above what you'd expect, which is just as likely/unlikely as 50-60% below what you'd expect.

+1

What he said.  Calm down people.  This is par for the course.

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January 03, 2014, 11:25:39 AM
 #5257

Bad pool luck and orphans....

I do not know the pool's architecture but is there a problem with the how quickly the pool can announce a discovered block to the blockchain?

Our orphan rate is the same/lower than other pools, and we've not had any of them in the last 48 hours.  Bad luck is completely out of anybody's control.  Additionally, the pool is overall lucky since luck began getting tracked beyond a single difficulty period.

People lose their heads when luck is bad, but nobody asks if the pool is broken when it's paying out 50-60% above what you'd expect, which is just as likely/unlikely as 50-60% below what you'd expect.

No worries, are the orphans displayed somewhere on website?

They're not separated from normal blocks since you don't know they're orphans when you first find them, and they're awarded to miners either way, so it doesn't exactly matter to the miner if its an orphan or not.

Some of the recent script updates have made it easier to match the orphans after the fact though, so I'll look into maybe italicizing the block number if it was an orphan.

UPDATE:  Orphans will now show up as 'Orphan' instead of a Block Number in the Block History (Pool Stats page).

That was a quick change eleuthria, I only spotted 1 in the 200 listed. This is the two main things I like about your pool, transparency and that you go the extra mile   Smiley

If I have been help then please show your thanks         BTC: 127PRogAVZiV3fEmpJERh9KemK3a3Ffh6G         LTC: LXghFL8mZffpTFkm2nRTesuDrV5DJQP3Js
iglasses
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January 03, 2014, 11:34:02 AM
 #5258

I have to say that for a new person to mining such as myself I think BTC Guild was a terrific choice.  I am not throwing enough hash at the network to mine on my own but have still managed to take my ~100ghs and show a return from day one of my mining.  The stats and other info have also helped me to learn and understand more about mining in general.

I know there are a lot of long time advanced miners on this board but from a new guy I'd like to say thanks to BTC Guild for helping me get into mining!

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January 03, 2014, 01:43:38 PM
 #5259

WOW... pretty new to mining and was making about .12 a day and after the difficulty jump and last nights good luck down to .05. On the plus side my shares jumped about 20% last night. Cheesy
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January 03, 2014, 05:11:00 PM
 #5260

WOW... pretty new to mining and was making about .12 a day and after the difficulty jump and last nights good luck down to .05. On the plus side my shares jumped about 20% last night. Cheesy

Yeah.  I think it's worse when you have a solid run of good luck then a really bad run of luck *and* a difficulty change.  It exaggerates the drop of earnings for miners who weren't aware that the previous 24-hours were above what they should expect.   Going from 100% to 50% of earnings for a day sucks.  Going from ~140% to 50% sucks more.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
BTC Guild Forum Thread
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