Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[BADecker]

Here's the best short breakdown of the reasons behind this war, that I have seen. Read this whole thing, and consider how all the parts fit together.


Armageddon Is Closer Than You Think

The world is facing catastrophe, and there is no awareness.  For years I and Stephen Cohen, while he was still alive,  advised that Washington’s provocations of Russia, including those of its NATO puppet states, were misguided and counter-productive.  Even prior to the fall of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev was open for the Soviet Union to become a cooperating member of the West.  The Russian population had a favorable attitude toward the West and looked forward to Russia’s incorporation into the Western world.

The Reagan administration and Reagan’s successor, the George H. W. Bush administration were open to this idea.  President Bush’s Secretary of State Jim Baker affirmed that he promised there would be no movement of NATO east to Soviet borders if Gorbachev permitted the reunification of Germany, which set the stage for the freedom of the Soviet Union’s Eastern European empire.

The Clinton regime, under the influence of  Neoconservatives, violated America’s word on the grounds that it was verbal and not in writing and therefore did not count.  The Clinton regime not only overthrew Yugoslavia and broke it into pieces while turning a historic part of Serbia over to Muslims, but also moved NATO to Russia’s border.  At the time with the Soviet collapse in 1991 Russia was too weak to do anything about it as the Yeltsin government was Washington’s puppet.

At the Munich Security Conference in 2007, Putin, Yeltsin’s successor, declared that Russia did not accept Washington’s unipolar world in which Washington ruled, and that Russia would follow its, not Washington’s interest.

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[TwitchySeal]

Here's the best short breakdown of the reasons behind this war, that I have seen. Read this whole thing, and consider how all the parts fit together.


Armageddon Is Closer Than You Think

The world is facing catastrophe, and there is no awareness.  For years I and Stephen Cohen, while he was still alive,  advised that Washington’s provocations of Russia, including those of its NATO puppet states, were misguided and counter-productive.  Even prior to the fall of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev was open for the Soviet Union to become a cooperating member of the West.  The Russian population had a favorable attitude toward the West and looked forward to Russia’s incorporation into the Western world.

The Reagan administration and Reagan’s successor, the George H. W. Bush administration were open to this idea.  President Bush’s Secretary of State Jim Baker affirmed that he promised there would be no movement of NATO east to Soviet borders if Gorbachev permitted the reunification of Germany, which set the stage for the freedom of the Soviet Union’s Eastern European empire.

The Clinton regime, under the influence of  Neoconservatives, violated America’s word on the grounds that it was verbal and not in writing and therefore did not count.  The Clinton regime not only overthrew Yugoslavia and broke it into pieces while turning a historic part of Serbia over to Muslims, but also moved NATO to Russia’s border.  At the time with the Soviet collapse in 1991 Russia was too weak to do anything about it as the Yeltsin government was Washington’s puppet.

At the Munich Security Conference in 2007, Putin, Yeltsin’s successor, declared that Russia did not accept Washington’s unipolar world in which Washington ruled, and that Russia would follow its, not Washington’s interest.

...

lol, you are so gullible

Paul Craig Roberts, a former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration, has migrated from the Wall Street Journal editorial page to the world of 9/11 conspiracy theory and Putin worship.


paleoconservative crank and Reagan administration Treasury Department official Paul Craig Roberts cast doubt on the notion that the Paris attack truly stemmed from Muslim anger over Charlie Hebdo's cartoons lampooning Islam and the Prophet Muhammad. Roberts, a notorious 9/11 truther, speculated that the U.S. government executed the attack to punish France for its independent foreign policy, citing its vote at the United Nations to recognize Palestine as a state and French President Francois Hollande's recent call to ease sanctions on Russia.

[tvbcof]

I keep reading in the lamestream media about 'Biden warns Putin that use of nukes in Ukraine would be a mistake' and blah, blah, blah.  This is utterly absurd of course as there is no need and no benefit to Russia in doing so, and no indication that there is any danger of this.  ALL we seem to have is endless nonsense along these lines in the Western media echo-chamber.

What would be amusing would be if Putin would warn that 'it would be a mistake for Biden to consort with Martians.'  Repeat it over and over again and let it bounce around in the media and social media echo chamber ad-nausium.  Whenever possible even official figures would, when confronted with ridiculous assertions about Russia's first use of nukes from the West, countered with this or some other absurdity on the sole basis that 'it is all over the media' and point out that actual evidence or logic is unnecessary because it's 'in the news.'

[TwitchySeal]

I keep reading in the lamestream media about 'Biden warns Putin that use of nukes in Ukraine would be a mistake' and blah, blah, blah.  This is utterly absurd of course as there is no need and no benefit to Russia in doing so, and no indication that there is any danger of this.  ALL we seem to have is endless nonsense along these lines in the Western media echo-chamber.

Putin says Russia will use “all the tools at its disposal. This is not a bluff" and you blame Western Media...

[tvbcof]

I keep reading in the lamestream media about 'Biden warns Putin that use of nukes in Ukraine would be a mistake' and blah, blah, blah.  This is utterly absurd of course as there is no need and no benefit to Russia in doing so, and no indication that there is any danger of this.  ALL we seem to have is endless nonsense along these lines in the Western media echo-chamber.

Putin says Russia will use “all the tools at its disposal. This is not a bluff" and you blame Western Media...

Classic example of leaving out the important parts.  Like 'for what?'  All I've ever heard Putin say is that the 'for what' is to protect the integrity of the Russian federation against attack.  That's the policy of every country to fight back against such a threat with whatever methods they might have at their disposal.

The U.S. has a stated 'posture' for the use of nuclear weapons which states that they can be use for, among other reasons, to let adversaries know that we are not hesitant to use them.  I've never seen such a policy expresses by the Russians (or anyone else.)

Indeed, there are some instances reported which I cannot rule out as having been the use of nuclear weapons.  Let me see if I can dig up a vid I spotted the other day which succinctly covers some of these.  I have been aware of all of them more-or-less as the happened, and it doesn't cover an incident which happened in Syria circa 2004 under Cheney and corresponding to a B-52 showing up in Florida with 5 nuclear bombs under it's wings which escaped custody controls.  The 6th space for a weapon was void.

  https://www.bitchute.com/channel/8pFMhTMF5XRK/

The whole channel.  I don't know the technology of thermobarics, exotic nuclear weapons, various kinds of chemical explosions, etc, to have even what I would call a 'belief' on any of these incidents.  But given the U.S.'s published nuclear defense posture I certainly wouldn't rule out 'experiments' on desperately poor countries who have no means to fight back against being 'mini-nuked', and no faith at all that the 'collective West' would utter a peep about it were the U.S. to be playing around with such devices and performing experiments.

[TwitchySeal]

I keep reading in the lamestream media about 'Biden warns Putin that use of nukes in Ukraine would be a mistake' and blah, blah, blah.  This is utterly absurd of course as there is no need and no benefit to Russia in doing so, and no indication that there is any danger of this.  ALL we seem to have is endless nonsense along these lines in the Western media echo-chamber.

Putin says Russia will use “all the tools at its disposal. This is not a bluff" and you blame Western Media...

Classic example of leaving out the important parts.  Like 'for what?'  All I've ever heard Putin say is that the 'for what' is to protect the integrity of the Russian federation against attack.  That's the policy of every country to fight back against such a threat with whatever methods they might have at their disposal.

The U.S. has a stated 'posture' for the use of nuclear weapons which states that they can be use for, among other reasons, to let adversaries know that we are not hesitant to use them.  I've never seen such a policy expresses by the Russians (or anyone else.)

Indeed, there are some instances reported which I cannot rule out as having been the use of nuclear weapons.  Let me see if I can dig up a vid I spotted the other day which succinctly covers some of these.  I have been aware of all of them more-or-less as the happened, and it doesn't cover an incident which happened in Syria circa 2004 under Cheney and corresponding to a B-52 showing up in Florida with 5 nuclear bombs under it's wings which escaped custody controls.  The 6th space for a weapon was void.

  https://www.bitchute.com/channel/8pFMhTMF5XRK/

The whole channel.  I don't know the technology of thermobarics, exotic nuclear weapons, various kinds of chemical explosions, etc, to have even what I would call a 'belief' on any of these incidents.  But given the U.S.'s published nuclear defense posture I certainly wouldn't rule out 'experiments' on desperately poor countries who have no means to fight back against being 'mini-nuked', and no faith at all that the 'collective West' would utter a peep about it were the U.S. to be playing around with such devices and performing experiments.

He's threatening to use nuclear weapons.

Other Russian leaders and Russian media are calling for tactical nukes to be used in Ukraine.

Hes pretending like parts of Ukraine are actually Russia now, which sure looks like he's setting the stage for claiming he used nukes because Russia was the one being invaded.

And you blame western media for reporting threats of nuclear war.

[be.open]

Other Russian leaders and Russian media are calling for tactical nukes to be used in Ukraine.

Can you provide prooflink? I have not seen in the Russian media calls for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It simply makes no sense - it does not bring any benefits to Russia and exposes it to a huge reputational risk.

[paxmao]

@Branko

I just saw a video that may make you reconsider if the RF has anything to do with you beloved anti-capitalist figthers.

https://youtu.be/ZAMz5kgb7V4

Income inequality is Moskva size compared to a boat.

I keep reading in the lamestream media about 'Biden warns Putin that use of nukes in Ukraine would be a mistake' and blah, blah, blah.  This is utterly absurd of course as there is no need and no benefit to Russia in doing so, and no indication that there is any danger of this.  ALL we seem to have is endless nonsense along these lines in the Western media echo-chamber.

What would be amusing would be if Putin would warn that 'it would be a mistake for Biden to consort with Martians.'  Repeat it over and over again and let it bounce around in the media and social media echo chamber ad-nausium.  Whenever possible even official figures would, when confronted with ridiculous assertions about Russia's first use of nukes from the West, countered with this or some other absurdity on the sole basis that 'it is all over the media' and point out that actual evidence or logic is unnecessary because it's 'in the news.'

Ahhh.... so it is the west who is saying that Putin is using the "N" word... there is nothing real to it? Nothing like Adolf Putin broadcasting an staged meeting with his Chief Psychos telling them to "ready the nuclear forces" nor any program in RF TV where commentators or opinion wannabe leaders speaking about how RF could use the "N" weapons?

You mean is all an invention from the west? Nothing like prime time news Dmitry Kiselyov depicting how the UK would look after an "N" attack. You trolls need to do much much better.

https://youtu.be/YyhTw-ZHTiE?t=36

https://youtu.be/Bn0XfCYhd2U

Any mention of the "N" word is a serious threat, it is not something you mention to your friends over a cup of vodka and has in itself diplomatic weight. There is no other use for it. There is no other point in showing a Satan in a parade.

As of now, there is far too much use of the "N" word in the RF. It could be because internally reinforces the Kremlin narrative of "being the victim and under attack" (ridiculous at it sounds) while "being strong" and "a culture" (even more ridiculous. Killing is not a culture, and destroying is a sign of weakness).

[BADecker]

Wow! Almost can't believe that Dems are turning around to look for a peaceful outcome to the war.


30 House Dems Urge Dramatic Shift In Biden's Ukraine Policy: 'Get Serious About Diplomacy Or Risk Nuclear Miscalculation'

Looks like they retracted their letter. But, the reasons they state for doing so, are actually just the opposite of what happens at the conclusion of a war.


"Progressive" Democrats Formally Retract Call For Diplomacy As Ukraine War Hawks Steamroll Dissent

Update(1318ET): That didn't take long... the 30 Houses Progressive Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (WA-07), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has early Tuesday afternoon issued a complete retraction of their letter sent to the Biden White House urging diplomacy on Ukraine, per an official statement [emphasis ours]:

"The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine."

"The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting. As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this. Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by Republican Leader McCarthy threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over. The proximity of these statements created the unfortunate appearance that Democrats, who have strongly and unanimously supported and voted for every package of military, strategic, and economic assistance to the Ukrainian people, are somehow aligned with Republicans who seek to pull the plug on American support for President Zelensky and the Ukrainian forces."

What's more is that Jayapal's retraction - after giving the ole "blame the interns" excuse ("unfortunately was released by staff without vetting") - actually goes so far as to suggest diplomacy won't be possible until after Ukrainian victory. The retraction concludes:

"Nothing could be further from the truth. Every war ends with diplomacy, and this one will too after Ukrainian victory."

...

[Kavelj22]

It is clear to me from your opinion that Russia is playing the humanitarian crisis card in what appears to be the most extreme solutions it has, but this is also surprising given the size of the military arsenal it possesses compared to Ukraine. Even on a strategic level, the Russian army has experience in fighting wars, whether on its territory or abroad. Is it really possible that it fails to invade a country that does not have the same experience or tools?

Russian military power is a mirage. Their last major victory was against nazi Germany (thus the bizarre fixation on nazis even to this day) 80 years ago but even that comes with some caveats, such as lend-lease, second front, and the amount of cannon fodder Stalin used up.

Since then they failed in Afghanistan, barely defeated Chechnia (a nation of ~1.5 million) by bombing it into rubble, and incited some smaller conflicts (Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine pre 2022). They haven't been able to create any substantially new weapons and can barely maintain old soviet equipment. Corruption in all levels of Russian government, including military, is legendary.

Here is an interesting analysis on how their claims differ from reality: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA
tl;dr: claimed to have 10+ thousand tanks, may have actually had 3000 potentially usable ones before the start of the war.

In doing some reviews, I think your observation is valid. Russia is winning the wars it is waging on its land due to its icy nature and climate that helps it to withstand in contrast to the invaders who can withstand the harsh winters, and this happened with Hitls and with Napoleon Bonaparte before him.
The rest of the wars fought on other lands were not very successful.

With more support for Ukraine, I think it is capable of making a difference in the war, but we cannot forget that Russia is able to fill the arena with soldiers and weapons without referring to economic weapons.

[paxmao]

It is clear to me from your opinion that Russia is playing the humanitarian crisis card in what appears to be the most extreme solutions it has, but this is also surprising given the size of the military arsenal it possesses compared to Ukraine. Even on a strategic level, the Russian army has experience in fighting wars, whether on its territory or abroad. Is it really possible that it fails to invade a country that does not have the same experience or tools?

Russian military power is a mirage. Their last major victory was against nazi Germany (thus the bizarre fixation on nazis even to this day) 80 years ago but even that comes with some caveats, such as lend-lease, second front, and the amount of cannon fodder Stalin used up.

Since then they failed in Afghanistan, barely defeated Chechnia (a nation of ~1.5 million) by bombing it into rubble, and incited some smaller conflicts (Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine pre 2022). They haven't been able to create any substantially new weapons and can barely maintain old soviet equipment. Corruption in all levels of Russian government, including military, is legendary.

Here is an interesting analysis on how their claims differ from reality: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA
tl;dr: claimed to have 10+ thousand tanks, may have actually had 3000 potentially usable ones before the start of the war.

In doing some reviews, I think your observation is valid. Russia is winning the wars it is waging on its land due to its icy nature and climate that helps it to withstand in contrast to the invaders who can withstand the harsh winters, and this happened with Hitls and with Napoleon Bonaparte before him.
The rest of the wars fought on other lands were not very successful.

With more support for Ukraine, I think it is capable of making a difference in the war, but we cannot forget that Russia is able to fill the arena with soldiers and weapons without referring to economic weapons.

No, all that is Kremlin crap:

a) The RF is not winning the war, is loosing it. Only in the last few days it has lost 1000 km2 west of Mykolaiv. Kherson is getting close to encirclement. Crimea is close to having the main water supply to the region in Ukrainian control.
b) Winter may not play a role as much as it did in WWII. Things have changed quite a bit. Particularly near Kherson, the temperature in winter is certainly not enough to stop operations by modern standards. Whoever is counting on that is up for a surprise.
c) The RF is not backfilling with "soldiers" is backfilling the estimated 80.000 soldiers killed with a number of forced conscripts with little training and no will to fight. That is not a "soldier" that is a "slave" wielding a weapon.

As for your knowledge of history, it sucks. Napoleon experienced winter far north, pretty much from  Moscow and on the way back to France with XIX century equipment - and not even winter equipment as such - and no supply lines. Ukraine is fighting at home with the backing of most developed countries.

[tvbcof]

...  Ukraine is fighting at home with the backing of most developed countries.

The 'developed countries' gave the Ukroids just enough weapons to enter battle but not enough (of the right type) to make much of a difference and certainly not enough to win much of anything or kill many Rooskies.  Compounding this, Russian strategy seems to be to manage the locations of fighting to be where it is advantageous to them by simply withdrawing.  Again, 'Mongolian' tactics from _way_ back.

It's hard to hit dug in professional soldiers so the Ukroids seem to have more or less contented themselves by hammering away on civilian targets and populations where they can rack up more kills I guess.  Donesk especially.

I remain suspicious that Zelenski and Putin are to some degree working together to get rid of the apparently undesirable populations in certain areas of the Ukraine.  Those 'developed countries' are certainly doing their part in this effort. Whether the Russian deep-state is in on it or not, that's what's happening.  One spigot goes into refugee bucket and the other goes 6 feet under the ground.

[OutOfMemory]

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-base/

Russian commanders were aware of their army's shortcomings in abilities and supply.
This is like Russian Roulette, it's only that the gun remains in Russia's hand...
CLICK

[suchmoon]

manage the locations of fighting to be where it is advantageous to them by simply withdrawing

Solid strategy. I think Ural Mountains is a greatly advantageous location for fighting. Putin should fast forward to that.

[tvbcof]

manage the locations of fighting to be where it is advantageous to them by simply withdrawing

Solid strategy. I think Ural Mountains is a greatly advantageous location for fighting. Putin should fast forward to that.

I'm expecting that someday the Russians will be withdrawing to the Ural mountains, but from the Easterly direction.  That will be during the war with China, and that's scheduled for some decades out.

The philosophical justification that the 'unipolar world' people have for their aspirations is that it will 'end war' when we are all holding hands and singing cum-ba-ya (and eating bugs, owning nothing, and being happy.)  Of course this is a pipe-dream and it's kind of the 'upper-middle class' useful idiot types who even need to grasp on to some ethical teddy-bear to justify their efforts.  These types fill in the middle of the pyramid.  Those nearer to the top who make everything happen are not nearly so sentimental and burdened with the need for garden-variety psychological crutches; they've got their philosophical and ethical issues worked out long ago, and it's and easier row to hoe for people who are true psychopaths.

[paxmao]

First of all basic manual of survival for any slave conscripted into Adolf's Putin army: This is how it is done. Make sure the sheet is clean and does not look like camouflage:

https://youtu.be/br53bjIkehQ?t=1020

...  Ukraine is fighting at home with the backing of most developed countries.

The 'developed countries' gave the Ukroids just enough weapons to enter battle but not enough (of the right type) to make much of a difference and certainly not enough to win much of anything or kill many Rooskies.  Compounding this, Russian strategy seems to be to manage the locations of fighting to be where it is advantageous to them by simply withdrawing.  Again, 'Mongolian' tactics from _way_ back.

It's hard to hit dug in professional soldiers so the Ukroids seem to have more or less contented themselves by hammering away on civilian targets and populations where they can rack up more kills I guess.  Donesk especially.

I remain suspicious that Zelenski and Putin are to some degree working together to get rid of the apparently undesirable populations in certain areas of the Ukraine.  Those 'developed countries' are certainly doing their part in this effort. Whether the Russian deep-state is in on it or not, that's what's happening.  One spigot goes into refugee bucket and the other goes 6 feet under the ground.

Ah sure just enough ... yet here we are - RF loosing ground, thousands at the risk of encirclement and orcs sent to the front with not preparation. Some of the guys out here do not seem to grasp how heroically are they going to die. Like this one here:
https://youtu.be/iqx_-OHE1Hk?t=297 Oh the poor thing... he repeated each night to himself "I am safe in Putin's Russia, Surely Adolf Putin is not going to call the privileged to the army. That's only for the "lower species" in the poor forgotten and politically irrelevant regions."

If you question the world "developed" you probably would like to give your own definition of developed. Go look for anything reasonable that makes the RF look "developed" (PIB, per capita, wealth distribution,... even education and industrial production is failing through the cracks of corruption and kleptocracy).

I remains suspicious of the quality of the vodka your handlers are paying you with. However, I am going to give you something: Adolf Putin has done more for the US than any president of the US could have ever done.

manage the locations of fighting to be where it is advantageous to them by simply withdrawing

Solid strategy. I think Ural Mountains is a greatly advantageous location for fighting. Putin should fast forward to that.

I have heard that Kamchatka offers a better advantage, since they are counting on the winter winning the war for them - yes... that's right ... against Ukrainians.

...

It's hard to hit dug in professional soldiers so the Ukroids seem to have more or less contented themselves by hammering away on civilian targets and populations where they can rack up more kills I guess.  Donesk especially.
....

This needs a special paragraph on its own. Ukrainian are doing run-attacks, precisely you need to avoid densely populated areas, as this will thwart the strategy. If you go to (ye olde) Russian Strategy manual you will find that defences are structured into 3 layers, 5km, 15km and divisional reserves at 30km. This is done so that a penetration by the enemy does not end in full collapse. What the Ukrainian army is finding (they probably knew already thanks to "gospel from the skies") is that the RF army is like everything else in Adolf Putin's RF: Plenty of shell, nothing inside - There were no second lines, there were no noticeable divisional reserves. Ukraine forces have been only stopping to resupply, pretty much like a swimmer sticking his head out to take a breath.

I wonder how much empty land and hollowness in mind, soul and over the terrain are they going to find.

[suchmoon]

BADecker will like this:

I believe that with the continuation of the special military operation, it becomes more and more urgent to carry out the de-Satanization of Ukraine.

(written by some KGB stooge so you know this is about as serious as "denazification")

[paxmao]

BADecker will like this:

I believe that with the continuation of the special military operation, it becomes more and more urgent to carry out the de-Satanization of Ukraine.

(written by some KGB stooge so you know this is about as serious as "denazification")

Do not feed the pets please, they are already take a balanced intake of phantasy, delusion, elucubration and wishful thinking that is best for the "piose" as "outsiders" and for a great shiny hair.

[Kavelj22]

b) Winter may not play a role as much as it did in WWII. Things have changed quite a bit. Particularly near Kherson, the temperature in winter is certainly not enough to stop operations by modern standards. Whoever is counting on that is up for a surprise.

Winter will serve Russia indirectly, given the economic war it is waging against Ukraine's allies regarding gas. Winter is always on the side of the Russians.

c) The RF is not backfilling with "soldiers" is backfilling the estimated 80.000 soldiers killed with a number of forced conscripts with little training and no will to fight. That is not a "soldier" that is a "slave" wielding a weapon.

I agree with you on this point because all the Russian armed forces, in addition to the reserve forces that were forcibly called up, do not have enough experience to fight a field war in the classical way. But we should not forget the large number of these soldiers, who are undoubtedly capable of making a difference, no matter how many losses they have.

As for your knowledge of history, it sucks. Napoleon experienced winter far north, pretty much from  Moscow and on the way back to France with XIX century equipment - and not even winter equipment as such - and no supply lines. Ukraine is fighting at home with the backing of most developed countries.

What I meant by the example of Napoleon was not to acknowledge that Russia had succeeded in defeating him, but rather that winter was and always is a catalyst for Russia.

[Branko]

More volunteers coming to defend Ukraine:

https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14010803000391/Repr-Dzens-f-Al-Qaeda-Linked-Terrriss-Redeplyed-Ukraine-frm-Syria