Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

is the "gold folding like a cheap suit" analogy still considered trolling?     molecular?

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[cypherdoc]

Dash for Digital Cash.  That's not an observation; it's advice.  While you can.

[miscreanity]

I'm looking for ~$1650/$30 by the end of the month. Bitcoin ~$9-10 within the same time frame.

The potential separation between paper/physical pricing in PMs is very unlikely to occur with Bitcoin at its current stage of derivative/secondary market maturity.

[cypherdoc]

The potential separation between paper/physical pricing in PMs is very unlikely to occur with Bitcoin at its current stage of derivative/secondary market maturity.

no shit Sherlock.  you can throw in The Tungsten Effect as well.  not to mention a little Deflation.

*and don't tell me you've been arguing this all along*

[cypherdoc]

i can hear Hank Paulson now "Order please, we need order!"  Order my ass...

Translation:  "Small fry don't panic, we need to let the Big Boys out first please.  Move aside!"

[miscreanity]

The potential separation between paper/physical pricing in PMs is very unlikely to occur with Bitcoin at its current stage of derivative/secondary market maturity.

no shit Sherlock.  you can throw in The Tungsten Effect as well.  not to mention a little Deflation.

*and don't tell me you've been arguing this all along*

Such hostility. I've stated several times that Bitcoin-related derivatives are insufficient to dictate price movements to the extent that is done in PMs, in this thread and others. The occurrence of fake gold bars is more akin to Bitcoin wallets being stolen than broken encryption.

Read up. Read more.

[cypherdoc]

The potential separation between paper/physical pricing in PMs is very unlikely to occur with Bitcoin at its current stage of derivative/secondary market maturity.

no shit Sherlock.  you can throw in The Tungsten Effect as well.  not to mention a little Deflation.

*and don't tell me you've been arguing this all along*

Such hostility. I've stated several times that Bitcoin-related derivatives are insufficient to dictate price movements to the extent that is done in PMs, in this thread and others. The occurrence of fake gold bars is more akin to Bitcoin wallets being stolen than broken encryption.

Read up. Read more.

no hostility at all.  its just that this physical/paper disparity argument has been such a central tenet of your entire argument for the last year.  need to get the facts straight.  

[thezerg]

cypherdoc, I've been reading this thread for quite some time and find your comments insightful but it seems you think that gold will descend significantly vs. fiat currencies long term.  But that certainly is counter the typical expectation on these forums which seems to be predicting hyper or high levels of fiat currency inflation long term.  This of course would mean both BTC and GLD increase against USD... although BTC might increase much faster then gold as adoption increases.  Can you clarify what you think bitcoin and gold will do against fiat (long term, i.e. 1+ years) and against some classical commodity like milk or oil and why? 

Silverbox jokes about gold "collapsing upwards" but is that your actual position? -- i.e. the buying power of an ounce of gold in other commodities will collapse while simultaneously its price in USD increases?

Thanks!

[cypherdoc]

cypherdoc, I've been reading this thread for quite some time and find your comments insightful but it seems you think that gold will descend significantly vs. fiat currencies long term.  But that certainly is counter the typical expectation on these forums which seems to be predicting hyper or high levels of fiat currency inflation long term.  This of course would mean both BTC and GLD increase against USD... although BTC might increase much faster then gold as adoption increases.  Can you clarify what you think bitcoin and gold will do against fiat (long term, i.e. 1+ years) and against some classical commodity like milk or oil and why? 

Silverbox jokes about gold "collapsing upwards" but is that your actual position? -- i.e. the buying power of an ounce of gold in other commodities will collapse while simultaneously its price in USD increases?

Thanks!

the essence of the deflationary theory is that the debt contraction will overpower the money printing thus decreasing the money supply as i define it:  money + debt extended.  Ben can say he will print to eternity but he is constrained as i believe the PTB won't let him destroy the reserve currency status the US enjoys.  the reserve currency is after all why the US remains #1. you're already seeing the UST market pulling in the reins the last few months as reflected by the recent significant rise in TNX.  if Ben keeps pumping up risk assets the bond vigilantes will/have attack.  i think the banks have already offloaded much of their bad debt to the Fed and and want to increase the value of their remaining debts extended to corporations and the citizens.  they do this via deflation, not inflation.  don't even begin to think that Ben will inflate the US debt away; its not in the best interests of the banks.  there is a dichotomy of interests btwn the ppl and the corporate/financial/political elite.  when one wins, the other loses IMO.  i always think in these terms.

gold, IMO, is at the end of a 13 yr bull market and was the last risk asset to inflate due to the longterm USD devaluation.  i think the USD devaluation process is coming to an end and you will see the USD skyrocket.  we saw this for a brief period during the 2007-9 crisis but the deflation was not allowed to clear the bad debts.  the banks used the last 4 yrs to shed what they could to the Fed and rebuild their balance sheets with free money from Ben.  inflationists think in linear terms; that the future will be like the past, as in straight up.  i believe in cycles where the long 40 yrs plus of inflation will be followed by a significant deflationary cycle. 

i think Bitcoin is going to help enforce this deflationary correction.  i know that its counterintuitive that Bitcoin could rise while gold falls in deflation.  however,  its bull is only a couple of years old and its born of, from, and for the Internet.  its too good of an idea and there are too many ppl who want it to succeed.   its too practical not to be used and its democratic nature ensures its success.  the fixed supply will cause it to rise in value and act as a significant store of wealth as well.

the Internet, BTW, is contributing to the deflation as it enables the flow of information and bits which is enabling price discovery which so far has been confined to technology but which is now spilling over to risk assets like stocks, bonds, RE, and commodities.  you guys need to read "This Machine Kills Secrets" by Andy Greenberg.  i just received my copy yesterday and i'm 40% of the way thru it already.  it shows the future by explaining the past.  the history of the Cypherpunks/Wikileaks and hacktivists is critical to understanding how Bitcoin represents the culmination of a movement to revolutionize money and privacy on the Internet.  its a great, riveting read and helps explain why Bitcoin is impenetrable and destined for great things.

[cypherdoc]

who is Andy Greenberg?  http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/AndyG

as to how important was this Cybersecurity Conference? well, Janet Napolitano was the leadoff speaker, head of the DHS. Andy was the Keynote Speaker.   she had to listen to his talk  .  no applause for him.

[thezerg]

Interesting.  You have a great point that with the fed owning so much debt they would want to cause deflation.  But I forget, they don't benefit from profits like this do they?  I don't agree with you about the debt contraction within the next 4 yrs, except possibly in the short term, neither US candidate seems that committed to reducing govt debt, for example.  But I can see that it could go either way.  I think USD will attempt to remain the reserve currency simply by failing slower then everybody else... 70s style inflation, not hyper.  And remaining the currency of last resort will help reduce apparent inflation by expanding the defacto scope of the USD even more into other countries.   But a significant hidden inflation will essentially transfer value from international holders of USD (China and countries that end up using USD due to their currency failure) to the USA, and from holders of USD or USD denominated instruments (mostly middle and low income families, the gold and farmland price appreciation is indicative that the smart money has already moved) to debt holders (US government).  This will ultimately reduce the tax burden for the very rich because while they may pay a lower % of earnings if I remember correctly they pay a higher % of all taxes.

[cypherdoc]

Interesting.  You have a great point that with the fed owning so much debt they would want to cause deflation.  But I forget, they don't benefit from profits like this do they?

no, they pay their interest payments minus expenses back to the Treasury.  but the banks hold alot of consumer debt like mortgages.  do they want that devalued?  no.

I don't agree with you about the debt contraction within the next 4 yrs, except possibly in the short term, neither US candidate seems that committed to reducing govt debt, for example.

who says that the UST bond market is going to cooperate with them in terms of low interest rates?  as i pointed out above, the TNX has been rising and we could be on the verge of the bond vigilante awakening.  this is going to, in aggregate, force the stock mkt bubble to collapse as money is diverted to UST's to try and control interest rates.  whether they succeed or not is irrelevant; there is going to be a selloff in other risk assets.

But I can see that it could go either way.  I think USD will attempt to remain the reserve currency simply by failing slower then everybody else... 70s style inflation, not hyper.  And remaining the currency of last resort will help reduce apparent inflation by expanding the defacto scope of the USD even more into other countries.   But a significant hidden inflation will essentially transfer value from international holders of USD (China and countries that end up using USD due to their currency failure) to the USA, and from holders of USD or USD denominated instruments (mostly middle and low income families, the gold and farmland price appreciation is indicative that the smart money has already moved) to debt holders (US government).  This will ultimately reduce the tax burden for the very rich because while they may pay a lower % of earnings if I remember correctly they pay a higher % of all taxes.

the only risk asset that the Fed has significantly been able to reflate to prevent a catastrophe has been the stock mkt.  i see that ending right about now.  the collateral damage has been significant in terms of rising food and gas prices.  even the latest gold price rise is damaging in that the inflationists have directed their money there and not the real economy.  the latest rise to 1794 was a red hot thermometer warning that Ben is out of control.  Mr. Market is going to punish Ben and relegate him to the annals of the worst CB ever.  if the Fed could control the economy like a machine you have to explain to me why their efforts failed twice in the stock market since 2000 and in the housing market.  you also have to explain why we're seeing deflations across Europe, Japan, and the ongoing collapse of the China miracle.

[thezerg]

It is now more obvious than ever that gold is becoming the new global reserve currency. Continuous and aggressive central-bank actions from the United States and Europe are driving the demand for gold. Investors have not yet seen any of the real hyperinflationary pressures that seem likely down the road.

Whether you believe in commodities (BTC & gold) or just BTC, its interesting to see that the (previously tin-foil-hat) ideas thrown around this forum about fiat currencies are so mainstream now that they are simply referenced, not the core subject of the article (which is on estimated gold holdings and appetite broken down by top nations).

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-nations-that-control-the-worlds-gold-2012-10-20

[cypherdoc]

Gold isn't doing so well tonite.

[bracek]

Gold isn't doing so well tonite.

maybe this 'll help

http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/15182799/counterfeit-aussie-gold-sold-in-china/

should we go long tungsten

[cypherdoc]

Gold isn't doing so well tonite.

maybe this 'll help

http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/15182799/counterfeit-aussie-gold-sold-in-china/

should we go long tungsten

Gold has been hacked!

[SkRRJyTC]

Gold and silver are going to go under their lows from 5 days ago (~1740 or ~34), but not below major support at ~1650 or ~30, before continuing to higher highs.

Just thought I should put one of my predictions to the test as well as bashing Cypher's

Under 1740 and 34... now to find support above 1650 and 30.

My crystal ball is showing that the USDX just topped.  I think this week could contain one of those corners you like to look for Cypher.  Should be an exciting week.

[notme]

Gold and silver are going to go under their lows from 5 days ago (~1740 or ~34), but not below major support at ~1650 or ~30, before continuing to higher highs.

Just thought I should put one of my predictions to the test as well as bashing Cypher's

Under 1740 and 34... now to find support above 1650 and 30.

My crystal ball is showing that the USDX just topped.  I think this week could contain one of those corners you like to look for Cypher.  Should be an exciting week.

Too bad everything else has topped too, at least in the short term.

[SkRRJyTC]

Gold and silver are going to go under their lows from 5 days ago (~1740 or ~34), but not below major support at ~1650 or ~30, before continuing to higher highs.

Just thought I should put one of my predictions to the test as well as bashing Cypher's

Under 1740 and 34... now to find support above 1650 and 30.

My crystal ball is showing that the USDX just topped.  I think this week could contain one of those corners you like to look for Cypher.  Should be an exciting week.

Too bad everything else has topped too, at least in the short term.

Really?  The way I am looking at things today or tomorrow will be a bottom for most things   Hence the excitement I guess!

[cypherdoc]

contrary to popular opinion, at least silverbox's opinion, looks like Ben Berspankme does NOT ride on a White Horse.

hallelujah!  there is a God! but it ain't Benny:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-23/no-third-term-chairman