Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

another billionaire joins Bitcoin.  isn't that 3 now?

http://bitcoinagile.com/1F1E8E/russian-jewish-billionaire-yuri-milner-loves-bitcoin

[smoothie]

I wonder where we will be in a year from now. 

I thought you of all people would at least have a prediction for us!   

Well I made mine know for this year. But next year....i'll make one when it is the right time.

[bitrider]

other than that, they are just preventing their citizens from engaging in free private tx.

Yup. exactly.

[leezay]

I wonder where we will be in a year from now. 

No one has a crystal ball. High price in bitcoin will invite more competition.

[cypherdoc]

I wonder where we will be in a year from now. 

No one has a crystal ball. High price in bitcoin will invite more competition.

Actually the competition is going on right now and the alts are losing. If bitcoin takes off to the upside alts are likely to die as everyone rushes to get on the Bitcoin train.

[smoothie]

I wonder where we will be in a year from now. 

No one has a crystal ball. High price in bitcoin will invite more competition.

Actually the competition is going on right now and the alts are losing. If bitcoin takes off to the upside alts are likely to die as everyone rushes to get on the Bitcoin train.

Well...not sure I agree they will "die" as in the way I would define it but price will fall yes.

Arbitrage will exist. As long as there is a price...people will trade it. You know me I'm a LTC supporter. I don't believe it is going away..but yes the price can go down.

[justusranvier]

Well...not sure I agree they will "die" as in the way I would define it but price will fall yes.

Arbitrage will exist. As long as there is a price...people will trade it. You know me I'm a LTC supporter. I don't believe it is going away..but yes the price can go down.

Do standalone BBSs still exist these days?

Probably, but who cares? Their existence and importance is negligible.

The network effect means the market will always seek a single unit of account. It takes massive external interventions to thwart this process. Altcoins don't have armies and police forces attacking anyone who doesn't use them, so they will go the way of the dial up BBSs (or else, Bitcoin will fuck up massively and one of the altcoins will take its place, with Bitcoin fading to oblivion).

[Melbustus]

Total alt market-cap has pretty much always varied between 5%-10% of bitcoin's market-cap. There's some niche, insurance, and experimentation value in the alt-space, so alt-cap shouldn't be zero....Bitcoin an order of magnitude more important than all of them combined sounds about right, as reflected in the prices.

That being the case, new alts tend to just dilute other alts, not bitcoin. It's getting tougher and tougher to be litecoin.

[smoothie]

Well...not sure I agree they will "die" as in the way I would define it but price will fall yes.

Arbitrage will exist. As long as there is a price...people will trade it. You know me I'm a LTC supporter. I don't believe it is going away..but yes the price can go down.

Do standalone BBSs still exist these days?

Probably, but who cares? Their existence and importance is negligible.

The network effect means the market will always seek a single unit of account. It takes massive external interventions to thwart this process. Altcoins don't have armies and police forces attacking anyone who doesn't use them, so they will go the way of the dial up BBSs (or else, Bitcoin will fuck up massively and one of the altcoins will take its place, with Bitcoin fading to oblivion).

Are you presuming that I think an alt coin will over take bitcoin? My answer: No.

Bitcoin has the majority of the attention, capital, and user base of interested parties into cryptocurrency. That doesn't mean there won't be a few other alt chains that are used for speculators to arbitrage with.

I say it is better to have Bitcoin arbitraging with Litecoin than Bitcoin arbitraging with USD or other fiat as you can't instantly withdraw fiat as you can LTC. That is a risk management topic that I personally have used to avert the risk of having USD stuck in an exchange.

[smoothie]

Total alt market-cap has pretty much always varied between 5%-10% of bitcoin's market-cap. There's some niche, insurance, and experimentation value in the alt-space, so alt-cap shouldn't be zero....Bitcoin an order of magnitude more important than all of them combined sounds about right, as reflected in the prices.

That being the case, new alts tend to just dilute other alts, not bitcoin. It's getting tougher and tougher to be litecoin.

Not sure if I agree with this as if bitcoin/fiat is used to buy other alts besides LTC then it is diluting Bitcoin as well as that money isn't going towards Bitcoin.

Bitcoin likely won't feel it as much as Litecoin but it does exist. To ignore it is to be in denial.

This next leg up for Bitcoin will crush alts but I suspect at some turning point the prices of alts will recover...eventually (at least ones with the bigger market caps).

[justusranvier]

There's a difference between long term behaviour and short term behaviour. In the short term, altcoins will continue to be a thing.

I actually think Litecoin might have another leg up left in it (note that altcoin/BTC is the only ratio that matters):

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime

The reason I wouldn't be surprised by a bounce is because, unlike every other altcoin I've looked, the bid/ask ratio is actually favourable. Most altcoins have many times more asks than bids.

[smoothie]

http://www.coindesk.com/state-of-bitcoin-q2-2014-report-expanding-bitcoin-economy/

Looks like investment capital is flowing like a river into Bitcoin....latter part of this year will be very interesting....or maybe the next 8-10 weeks.

[smoothie]

There's a difference between long term behaviour and short term behaviour. In the short term, altcoins will continue to be a thing.

I actually think Litecoin might have another leg up left in it (note that altcoin/BTC is the only ratio that matters):

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime

The reason I wouldn't be surprised by a bounce is because, unlike every other altcoin I've looked, the bid/ask ratio is actually favourable. Most altcoins have many times more asks than bids.

I disagree in regards to the bolded point above.

Crypto-coins will outpace fiat currency and that does matter. The ratio of Bitcoin to Litecoin or altcoinX to bitcoin is important, it just isn't the only important market.

In the short, medium, and long term crypto-coins will be a thing. Who knows if Litecoin will exist (I suspect Bitcoin will be around in 5-10 years) but could there be another replacing #2 crypto coin or one that surpasses Bitcoin...it is possible. Who knows.

My personal concern is the next 6 months to 3 years. I see another global financial crisis on the horizon and that will mean that Bitcoin and other coins much like it will rise in value even it is just to avert the fiat paper ponzi scheme that exists today.

There will always be sh*t coins as there will always be scammers and bad apples in a group, community, country, etc.

People will lose faith in government currencies (at least a good portion of the people who see their purchasing power diminishing and will look for alternatives to preserve value).

[molecular]

I wonder where we will be in a year from now. 

I have a picture of where we'll be, but wonder long it will take to get there.

[cypherdoc]

This is a great article on the economic prospects and mass psychology behind the success of Uber. Much of this applies to bitcoin.

http://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/

[Trader Steve]

Funny how I used to laugh at those people who called gold the "barbarous relic" but since I've discovered Bitcoin I'm beginning to feel the same way. As a former precious metals dealer I appreciate how Bitcoin is so darn easy to use and precious metals are such a chore to deal with. I'm excited to see what the future will continue to bring. Maybe Open Transactions anonymous digital cash secured by bitcoin? Now that would be cool...

[cypherdoc]

Ghash still down:

[cypherdoc]

Funny how I used to laugh at those people who called gold the "barbarous relic" but since I've discovered Bitcoin I'm beginning to feel the same way. As a former precious metals dealer I appreciate how Bitcoin is so darn easy to use and precious metals are such a chore to deal with. I'm excited to see what the future will continue to bring. Maybe Open Transactions anonymous digital cash secured by bitcoin? Now that would be cool...

For me it is helpful to break the problem into 2 possibilities:

1. Satoshi achieved perfect security with the pow block chain. If he did, then there is no question that bitcoin is a more efficient form of money. And if it is then gold should return to its industrial value of 250 at the most and bitcoin goes to the moon.

2.  If he didn't achieve that security, then you're left weighing risk benefit ratios to bitcoin. In this scenario, it is still worth it to me to slant my portfolio more heavily to bitcoin versus gold because gold already had its run to its peak, imo. And this is what I've done, just way more heavily than most.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Funny how I used to laugh at those people who called gold the "barbarous relic" but since I've discovered Bitcoin I'm beginning to feel the same way. As a former precious metals dealer I appreciate how Bitcoin is so darn easy to use and precious metals are such a chore to deal with. I'm excited to see what the future will continue to bring. Maybe Open Transactions anonymous digital cash secured by bitcoin? Now that would be cool...

That's because gold as money/store of value wasn't outdated until bitcoin showed up.
You were right to laugh then, and you are right to feel this way now.

[_mr_e]

Ghash still down:

Everything is ok now that they are pointing their miners at other pools!