Bitcoin Forum
December 05, 2016, 12:33:51 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

Pages: « 1 ... 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 [512] 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 ... 1560 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804358 times)
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 11:17:37 PM
 #10221

Do we know about this one: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/ecuador-first-nation-create-digital-currency/2014/07/31

SO they ban BTC and create their own.. geniuses I tell ya!
If they instead were one of the nationale who applied bitcoin... They would have had so much wealth.

Sooner or later someone will take the plunge... but not until  a few more zero's are added to the right... right now credability within the dev community must be addressed, if the dev community can be trusted to make proper decisions, maybe someone would be interested (and perhaps say we will do it if we have our own developers control the source or something?) but anyways thats the central weakness of the open source model we have with bitcoin, its controlled by a select few and we dont have control over what they do or are coerced to maybe do.

this is where the mind twisting comes in.  say Gavin is coerced into lifting the 21M limit, say to 100M.  he submits a patch, yet theoretically no one will download or use it.  we're all here because we've already bought into a system that will only ever print 21M.
1480898031
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480898031

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480898031
Reply with quote  #2

1480898031
Report to moderator
1480898031
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480898031

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480898031
Reply with quote  #2

1480898031
Report to moderator
1480898031
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480898031

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480898031
Reply with quote  #2

1480898031
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288


View Profile
August 06, 2014, 05:40:27 AM
 #10222

U really think it would survive then? Power to the people! but in reality it woul dbe a big hit... but i think it would recover... just a big hit... probably signify a major top or something on the chart.
Melbustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1554



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 07:55:53 AM
 #10223

CNBC has *really* turned around on bitcoin recently:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000298809&play=1

They're now talking effortlessly and seriously, and with almost no back-pedaling, about both the tech potential and price potential of bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
marcus_of_augustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 08:34:26 AM
 #10224

CNBC has *really* turned around on bitcoin recently:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000298809&play=1

They're now talking effortlessly and seriously, and with almost no back-pedaling, about both the tech potential and price potential of bitcoin.

Who pays the piper right?

The banksters are not coming, they are already here ... don't look around they are watching you and might stab you in the back.

Hint: Morgan Stanley knows ...

rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1386


Crypto Kingdom (Creator)


View Profile
August 06, 2014, 08:57:24 AM
 #10225

CNBC has *really* turned around on bitcoin recently:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000298809&play=1

They're now talking effortlessly and seriously, and with almost no back-pedaling, about both the tech potential and price potential of bitcoin.

Even you: as long as you are accumulating (let's say an altcoin), you erect sell walls and fud. When you are done, you let it fly.

Their net accumulation is soon over, perhaps by the next halving.

Bank Of Bitcoin
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 14


View Profile
August 06, 2014, 09:14:55 AM
 #10226

i think gold collapse thats will not affect anything with bitcoin ?
gold always up Cheesy time to buy .
impulse
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 151


View Profile
August 06, 2014, 04:22:37 PM
 #10227

Hey Cypher, have you looked at the hashrate distribution yet today? Smiley

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 05:12:00 PM
 #10228

Hey Cypher, have you looked at the hashrate distribution yet today? Smiley

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

nice.  ghash down to 27%.

the Nash Equilibrium in full display.
impulse
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 151


View Profile
August 06, 2014, 05:16:13 PM
 #10229

Hey Cypher, have you looked at the hashrate distribution yet today? Smiley

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

nice.  ghash down to 27%.

the Nash Equilibrium in full display.

Yeah, I should have screen capped it but Discus Fish had briefly surpassed them earlier today.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 05:16:20 PM
 #10230

i'm tellin' ya, you'd better look the hell out if you're short:

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 05:26:18 PM
 #10231

Hey Cypher, have you looked at the hashrate distribution yet today? Smiley

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

nice.  ghash down to 27%.

the Nash Equilibrium in full display.

Yeah, I should have screen capped it but Discus Fish had briefly surpassed them earlier today.

who cares?  all of them take turns being the leader w/o anything ever becoming of it.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 05:28:50 PM
 #10232

U really think it would survive then? Power to the people! but in reality it woul dbe a big hit... but i think it would recover... just a big hit... probably signify a major top or something on the chart.

thing is, it will never happen.

Gavin and all the other devs aren't stupid enough to make such a change.  they're constantly monitoring the sentiment pulse of the community and they wouldn't even dare try to increase the 21M.  this is the advantage of an open source system.  it enforces rational, honest behavior.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 05:30:07 PM
 #10233

CNBC has *really* turned around on bitcoin recently:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000298809&play=1

They're now talking effortlessly and seriously, and with almost no back-pedaling, about both the tech potential and price potential of bitcoin.

good find and assessment.  it really is fascinating to watch all these major players come around.  we're on our way.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 05:44:41 PM
 #10234

note this comparison chart btwn the Russell (purple line) and oil.  oil peaked first, followed slightly by the Russell.

things aren't well:

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 06:07:24 PM
 #10235

it looks to me that mining would be best described as being in a Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium - cypherdoc
Highlights are mine:


"A pure strategy Nash equilibrium is a profile of strategies such that each player’s (miner's) strategy is a best response ((results in the highest available payoff (block reward)) against the equilibrium strategies of the other players (miners).

A pure strategy Nash equilibrium only requires that the action taken by each agent (miner) be best against the actual equilibrium actions taken by the other players (miners), and not necessarily against all possible actions of the other players (miners). In other words, it's expected for some miners to be malicious.

A Nash equilibrium has the nice property that it is stable: if each player expects 'a' to be the profile of actions played, then no player (miner) has any incentive to change his or her action (no incentive to start cheating). In other words, no player (miner) regrets having played the action that he or she played in a Nash equilibrium.
"

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1968579

Nice. I hadn't looked at it that way but it makes perfect sense.


Nash equilibrium works well in theory, the real world is a little more messy.
Pre-mass adoption there are so many outside interests seeking bitcoin failure that there are other incentives at play.
Once there is more distribution and buy in, the full effects of the Nash Equilibrium will be much stronger than they are today.



the Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of a non-cooperative game; therefore, i think the Nash Equilibrium takes those hostile actors into account.  the minimum # of participants required to apply the theory is 2 and doesn't depend on large #'s.  what's also important for all actors to know and understand, and to know that the others know, is that the longest blockchain and the POW required to construct it is mathematically immutable. b/c we know that the hashrate of the Bitcoin Network is thousands of times larger than most of the supercomputers on Earth makes the strategical decision making of each individual actor clear; don't cheat.

Understood, I'm more referring to the folks that are the non-participants in the game.  Lest we forget these currently vastly outnumber the participants with respect to potential game resources available to them.  Game-ending scenarios are often dismissed as impossible when in fact they are merely unlikely, as are the application of non-monetary/computing power factors.  Threats to date have generally been within the game players, and Nash applies well.

In general I not only agree but the also salute the application of the principle.  

Consider however the implications if one were to throw something like stuxnet into the works or a fab level exploit into each of the main chip makers, say by coercion or covertly, and subsequently activated?  There are defenses certainly, but it would be disruptive and could be timed with other types of interference.  Unlikely but possible.  Thankfully, we are not under serious attack or opposition, but I'd still give a BTC =~ 0 a >0 p value, and Nash holds the rest in place.

we're ALL part of a Nash Equilibrium.  even the gubmints, banks, and skeptics.

when i decided to mine in 2011, i was fully aware that a non-economic attacker like a gubmint or bank could potentially screw my investment in BTC and mining equipment.  but after reading thread after thread about the theoretical basis of a 51% attack, i decided it was worth the risk and that any such attempt would fail.  that was my assessment.  all the other miners are fully aware of that potential as well, yet we all plow forward.  why?

the open source phenomenon that represents Bitcoin should shine enough light on any such potential attacker to prevent such an attack from happening.  any such attack should be temporary and able to be dealt with.  Gavin has already stated what could be done as a counter measure.  i think the attacker could even be identified through various means.

corruption and dishonest behavior likes to be hidden.  crooks don't want to be identified.  i think a gubmint or bank will make the assessment that it's too politically risky an endeavor to take on which would cost them millions (billions?) in losses, not only in dollars but in trust.  see this interesting study:

From 1961 to 1989, the Berlin Wall divided one nation into two distinct political regimes. We
exploited this natural experiment to investigate whether the socio-political context impacts
individual honesty. Using an abstract die-rolling task, we found evidence that East Germans
who were exposed to socialism cheat more than West Germans who were exposed to
capitalism. We also found that cheating was more likely to occur under circumstances of
plausible deniability. Subjects were more likely to cheat by mis-reporting the chosen side of
the die than by making up rolls altogether. These results indicate that most people are
motivated to hide their dishonesty – either from others (Hao and Houser, 2011) or from
themselves (Mazar et al., 2008).


http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2457000
thezerg
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


View Profile
August 06, 2014, 08:09:38 PM
 #10236

Interesting.  Also note that the cheaters would then go and donate the money!  This eliminates an as an explanation persistent economic disadvantage (i.e. east germans needed the $ more).

"However, dividing the sample in subjects who had on average 50 percent high rolls or less and those subjects who had on average more than 50 percent high rolls (potential cheaters), we did not find any difference in donations (p=0.52)."   
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 08:52:24 PM
 #10237

The crunch increased interest in tenders divorced from a single nation’s strength, spurring the International Monetary Fund to boost almost 10-fold the allocation of special drawing rights, a reserve asset whose value is based on a basket of currencies, and fueling demand for so-called virtual currencies, such as bitcoin.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/russia-sanctions-accelerate-risk-to-dollar-dominance.html
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 09:08:11 PM
 #10238

Bitcoin 2.0 Fragmentation

http://www.bitblogger.net/2014/08/06/bitcoin-2-0-fragmentation/
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 09:14:50 PM
 #10239

Chamath:  "look at the volatility of gold. and the ppl in the gold market are thousands of times dumber than the ppl in the Bitcoin ecosystem."   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AoPHNsX2x8
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 06, 2014, 09:27:49 PM
 #10240

movin up:

Pages: « 1 ... 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 [512] 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 ... 1560 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!